Post by Purple Pain on Apr 27, 2022 9:07:32 GMT -6
Production, right?
Elite production or freakish athleticism: Which draft prospects are better? by Timo Riske
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More at link:
www.pff.com/news/draft-elite-production-freakish-athleticsm-which-prospects-better-2022
Elite production or freakish athleticism: Which draft prospects are better? by Timo Riske
QUANTIFYING PRODUCTION AND ATHLETIC TRAITS
First of all, we need to establish how we measure production and athleticism. To measure production, we can use PFF WAA. The advantage of this metric is that it exists for every position and is a reasonable blend of per-snap efficiency and volume, as both matter when evaluating a draft prospect.
We will normalize WAA numbers to have a better comparison across positions and only look at a prospect's best season. The final production number will be the percentile in which a prospect ranks among all drafted players.
To quantify athleticism, we will leverage the athletic score my colleague Eric Eager developed as part of his college-to-pro projections.
One advantage of these two metrics is that there is basically zero correlation between the two among all drafted players since 2015, and that’s true across all three days of the NFL draft. This makes the analysis of the effects of those two features on NFL success a bit easier.
We find most first-round picks on the upper right of the above chart, while the lower and left regions are crowded with Day 3 picks.
As a first idea of how athleticism and production determine NFL success, we look at all top 15 picks since 2015:
It’s not surprising that a large group of top-15 picks excelled in our athleticism and production metrics. However, there are also sizable groups of players who excelled in only one of those aspects.
Top-left, we find prospects with elite athletic traits but lacking production or efficiency for various reasons. Bottom-right, we find prospects with elite college production but average athletic traits.
First of all, we need to establish how we measure production and athleticism. To measure production, we can use PFF WAA. The advantage of this metric is that it exists for every position and is a reasonable blend of per-snap efficiency and volume, as both matter when evaluating a draft prospect.
We will normalize WAA numbers to have a better comparison across positions and only look at a prospect's best season. The final production number will be the percentile in which a prospect ranks among all drafted players.
To quantify athleticism, we will leverage the athletic score my colleague Eric Eager developed as part of his college-to-pro projections.
One advantage of these two metrics is that there is basically zero correlation between the two among all drafted players since 2015, and that’s true across all three days of the NFL draft. This makes the analysis of the effects of those two features on NFL success a bit easier.
We find most first-round picks on the upper right of the above chart, while the lower and left regions are crowded with Day 3 picks.
As a first idea of how athleticism and production determine NFL success, we look at all top 15 picks since 2015:
It’s not surprising that a large group of top-15 picks excelled in our athleticism and production metrics. However, there are also sizable groups of players who excelled in only one of those aspects.
Top-left, we find prospects with elite athletic traits but lacking production or efficiency for various reasons. Bottom-right, we find prospects with elite college production but average athletic traits.
CONCLUSION
The uncertainty with prospect evaluation is vast, but our analysis suggests that elite athletic traits are slightly overdrafted by NFL teams.
Being a better athlete helps on the field, and there is a measurable difference in draft success for 75th-percentile athletes compared to 50th-percentile athletes, but we found diminishing returns for players whose athletic traits ranked even higher than in the 75th percentile.
On the one hand, this could be driven by league-wide overconfidence in the ability to develop the potential into on-field success. On the other hand, this could be driven by the problem that measuring athletic traits via combine testing comes with uncertainty to begin with, and the real difference between a 90th-percentile athlete and a 75th-percentile might be smaller than we think.
We also found that the better alternative at the top of the draft is to forego a bit of freakish athleticism if you can select a prospect who was much more productive in college. In this year’s draft, this would mean choosing Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux over Travon Walker at the top of the draft. The time to shoot for upside through athletic traits might start with Day 2 of the draft.
Nevertheless, we shouldn’t forget that there is a lot we don’t know about the draft, and the last time the NFL selected an edge rusher just based on upside through athletic traits, the Packers found the edge rusher who led the NFL in pressure rate last season: Rashan Gary.
The uncertainty with prospect evaluation is vast, but our analysis suggests that elite athletic traits are slightly overdrafted by NFL teams.
Being a better athlete helps on the field, and there is a measurable difference in draft success for 75th-percentile athletes compared to 50th-percentile athletes, but we found diminishing returns for players whose athletic traits ranked even higher than in the 75th percentile.
On the one hand, this could be driven by league-wide overconfidence in the ability to develop the potential into on-field success. On the other hand, this could be driven by the problem that measuring athletic traits via combine testing comes with uncertainty to begin with, and the real difference between a 90th-percentile athlete and a 75th-percentile might be smaller than we think.
We also found that the better alternative at the top of the draft is to forego a bit of freakish athleticism if you can select a prospect who was much more productive in college. In this year’s draft, this would mean choosing Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux over Travon Walker at the top of the draft. The time to shoot for upside through athletic traits might start with Day 2 of the draft.
Nevertheless, we shouldn’t forget that there is a lot we don’t know about the draft, and the last time the NFL selected an edge rusher just based on upside through athletic traits, the Packers found the edge rusher who led the NFL in pressure rate last season: Rashan Gary.
More at link:
www.pff.com/news/draft-elite-production-freakish-athleticsm-which-prospects-better-2022
... and neither is this Chris guy.