2022 NFL Strength of Schedule - Vikings #10

Funkytown
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2022 NFL Strength of Schedule - Vikings #10 Apr 1, 2022 12:53:25 GMT -6 comet52 likes this

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Post by Funkytown on Apr 1, 2022 12:53:25 GMT -6

Some will say this is far too early, but...

SHARP FOOTBALL STAFF: 2022 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Regular Season

What NFL teams have the easiest schedule for 2022:

Based on projected win totals, the Washington Commanders have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2022 NFL season.

The next easiest schedules, in order, are the Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, and Seattle Seahawks.

What NFL teams have the hardest schedule for 2022:

Based on projected win totals, the Kansas City Chiefs have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2022 NFL season.

The next hardest schedules, in order, are the New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Las Vegas Raiders.

...

2022 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization

While there aren’t perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2022 Vegas win totals is much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.

Here is a visual breakdown of 2022 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each team, based on Vegas win totals.

...

How Accurate is Warren Sharp’s Model for determining Strength of Schedule?

Last season (2021), the Top 8 teams with the most difficult schedule were: Raiders, Texans, Chiefs, Lions, Steelers, Cardinals, Giants & Commanders.

Warren Sharp’s 2021 NFL Strength of Schedule methodology correctly forecasted all of them would have Top 8 toughest schedules except the Chiefs (#20).

Last season (2021), the Top 7 teams with the easiest schedule were: Bills, Buccaneers, Bengals, Broncos, Eagles, Dolphins & Cowboys.

Warren Sharp’s 2021 NFL Strength of Schedule methodology correctly forecasted that 6 of these Top 7 teams would rank inside the Top 10 easiest schedules (only the Bengals did not).

Are Strength of Schedule projections released this early even accurate?

Short answer: YES

Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the hardest 2021 schedules, only 3 went over their projected win total: Cardinals, Steelers, Raiders

Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the easiest 2021 schedules, only 3 went under their projected win total: Bills, Broncos, Browns

Trying to exceed and overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (3 out of 10 in 2021) and likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectation was quite regular (only 3 out of 10 did not).

Full read at the link:

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2022-nfl-strength-of-schedule/

MidwinterViking
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2022 NFL Strength of Schedule - Vikings #10 Apr 11, 2022 8:31:16 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by MidwinterViking on Apr 11, 2022 8:31:16 GMT -6

I'm not sold on this analysis, the part that makes me suspicious is this line:

Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the hardest 2021 schedules, only 3 went over their projected win total: Cardinals, Steelers, Raiders

At first glance, 3/10 sounds terrible, OMG you mean 70% failed!? My first thought was that's not really true, all teams will either exceed or fail on expectations, it's a 50/50 thing. So 3/10 vs 5/10 means only 2 more teams than expected came up short because of hard schedules.

BUT, I realized even that overstates the impact - because if you're any good at projecting schedules - sometimes you'll actually (and say with me on this for a moment, it's a crazy idea) be right about a projection. It's not that crazy, there's only about 10 possible win totals you can guess. Heck, if I projected "every team will win 9.5 games!!" I would have been right about 1/3 of the time (within 0.5 games). So a normal result for win projections should be:
3-4 teams underachieve
2-4 teams on projection
3-4 teams exceed expectations

And yet they're telling me only 3 teams with hard schedules over achieved? That is exactly the number I would expect if strength of schedule were completely random.

Last Edit: Apr 11, 2022 8:57:33 GMT -6 by MidwinterViking

comet52
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2022 NFL Strength of Schedule - Vikings #10 Apr 12, 2022 10:28:26 GMT -6

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Post by comet52 on Apr 12, 2022 10:28:26 GMT -6

Using betting markets is the right methodology as last year's w/l records are mostly meaningless going forward. If you can accurately predict top/bottom s.o.s., getting upwards of 15 teams correct as he did, and history suggests that only 30% of teams exceed expecations to the up or downside, then you potentially have a very profitable angle for season win total betting.

I'm here for entertainment purposes only

James
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2022 NFL Strength of Schedule - Vikings #10 Apr 12, 2022 10:55:29 GMT -6 via mobile vikingpwr likes this

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Post by James on Apr 12, 2022 10:55:29 GMT -6

I always found the strength of schedule topic meaningless. I mean sure you have those teams who you can kinda predict who will be really competitive but you never know what who is tough and who is not until the season plays out. You have teams who dominate for a season or 2 then become mediocre again. Some teams are like a impact player injury away from being trash. Then you have player progression/regression. Too many variables

vikingpwr
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2022 NFL Strength of Schedule - Vikings #10 Apr 13, 2022 10:24:30 GMT -6 MidwinterViking likes this

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Post by vikingpwr on Apr 13, 2022 10:24:30 GMT -6

Apr 12, 2022 10:55:29 GMT -6 James said:

I always found the strength of schedule topic meaningless. I mean sure you have those teams who you can kinda predict who will be really competitive but you never know what who is tough and who is not until the season plays out. You have teams who dominate for a season or 2 then become mediocre again. Some teams are like a impact player injury away from being trash. Then you have player progression/regression. Too many variables

Check this out.............

ESPN 2008

The strength of schedule entering a season is based on opponents' records from the year before; the better the records of the opponents, the higher the strength of schedule. The "actual" strength of schedule is based on the cumulative record of opponents for that season. We went back to 2002, when the NFL implemented its current scheduling formula.

Note: All strength of schedule information came from the Elias Sports Bureau.

In 2007, the Giants' schedule was far more difficult than it appeared to be entering the season. They had the 21st most difficult schedule based on the 2006 records of their opponents. However, the combined 2007 winning percentage of the Giants' opponents ended up tied for the eighth-highest in the NFL. In 2003 and 2004, the opposite happened to the Patriots. New England entered those seasons with schedules that ranked in the top 10 in terms of difficulty, but upon season's end, the Patriots' strength of schedule was in the bottom half of the NFL.

Strength of Schedule of Super Bowl Champions
Is the toughest schedule really the toughest schedule?

Though your team may have the toughest schedule entering a season, it does not mean your team will actually have the toughest schedule. In fact, since 2002, the team with the toughest schedule based on previous season results has never had the toughest schedule at the end of the season (though the 2004 Dolphins had the second-toughest). On the flip side, the 2002 Bills entered the season tied with the Chargers for the toughest schedule, but wound up with the third-easiest schedule in the NFL.

Most Difficult Schedule

Based on opponents' previous season results

Can you make the playoffs with the toughest schedule?

Since 2002, of the 11 teams that entered the season with -- or tied for -- the toughest schedule, only three actually made the playoffs.

Do teams make the playoffs with the easiest schedule?

Since 2002, of the seven teams that entered the season with -- or tied for -- the easiest schedule, only one actually made the playoffs. The 2003 Seahawks were tied with the Cardinals for the easiest schedule. That season, Seattle went 10-6 and lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Season Results of Teams With Easiest Schedule
Based on opponents' previous season results

vikingpwr Living Legend Posts: 21,389 Likes: 4,606	2022 NFL Strength of Schedule - Vikings #10 Apr 13, 2022 13:47:05 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingpwr on Apr 13, 2022 13:47:05 GMT -6 Apr 12, 2022 10:55:29 GMT -6 James said: I always found the strength of schedule topic meaningless. So have I.

Reignman
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2022 NFL Strength of Schedule - Vikings #10 Apr 13, 2022 21:47:43 GMT -6 MidwinterViking likes this

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Post by Reignman on Apr 13, 2022 21:47:43 GMT -6

Based on projected win totals, the Washington Commanders have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2022 NFL season.

Apr 11, 2022 8:31:16 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

At first glance, 3/10 sounds terrible, OMG you mean 70% failed!? My first thought was that's not really true, all teams will either exceed or fail on expectations, it's a 50/50 thing. So 3/10 vs 5/10 means only 2 more teams than expected came up short because of hard schedules

Yeah I sorta have a problem with that "projected win totals" thing too. They're taking something that isn't reliable to begin with, like SOS, and applying something to it that also isn't all that reliable, like projected win totals. And then you have to factor in teams that don't have much room for improvement, like they won 12+ games the previous year, or teams that won 4 or fewer games who can't get much worse. Like the 2008 Patriots had the easiest SOS to begin the year, but it's difficult to go better than 16-0 like they did in 2007. Matt Cassel went 11-5 with that easy schedule so that should almost count lol.

So here's what I did. I took every team since 2003 who had a top 10 easy SOS to begin the year, like they did, except instead of "projected win totals", I just counted how many teams actually improved their record over the previous year with that "easy" schedule. Which 88 of the 182 teams did (48.4%). 75 (41.2%) ended up worse. Of note, 78 (42.9%) of those 182 teams finished the season with a top 10 easy SOS as well. Only 35 (19.2%) ended with a top 10 difficult schedule.

On the flip side, 201 teams began the year with a top 10 difficult SOS and 99 (49.3%) finished with a worse record than the previous year, and 85 (42.3%) ended up better. 71 (35.3%) of these teams finished with a top 10 difficult schedule as well, while only 43 (21.4%) ended up with a top 10 easy schedule.

So you have a 48.4% chance of improving your record over the previous year with an easy schedule compared to 42.3% with a difficult schedule. I guess 48.4 is better than 42.3 xD. #ChampionshipMindset

If you straight up ignore SOS, 276 (45.4%) of the 608 teams improved their W/L record over the previous year, and 271 (44.6%) got worse. However, it's probably more important if your opponents have been busy signing a Tom Brady in the offseason or something. *whistle*

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

MidwinterViking
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2022 NFL Strength of Schedule - Vikings #10 Apr 14, 2022 8:25:32 GMT -6

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Post by MidwinterViking on Apr 14, 2022 8:25:32 GMT -6

Apr 13, 2022 10:24:30 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Apr 12, 2022 10:55:29 GMT -6 James said:

I always found the strength of schedule topic meaningless. I mean sure you have those teams who you can kinda predict who will be really competitive but you never know what who is tough and who is not until the season plays out. You have teams who dominate for a season or 2 then become mediocre again. Some teams are like a impact player injury away from being trash. Then you have player progression/regression. Too many variables

Check this out.............

ESPN 2008

The strength of schedule entering a season is based on opponents' records from the year before; the better the records of the opponents, the higher the strength of schedule. The "actual" strength of schedule is based on the cumulative record of opponents for that season. We went back to 2002, when the NFL implemented its current scheduling formula.

Note: All strength of schedule information came from the Elias Sports Bureau.

In 2007, the Giants' schedule was far more difficult than it appeared to be entering the season. They had the 21st most difficult schedule based on the 2006 records of their opponents. However, the combined 2007 winning percentage of the Giants' opponents ended up tied for the eighth-highest in the NFL. In 2003 and 2004, the opposite happened to the Patriots. New England entered those seasons with schedules that ranked in the top 10 in terms of difficulty, but upon season's end, the Patriots' strength of schedule was in the bottom half of the NFL.

Strength of Schedule of Super Bowl Champions
Is the toughest schedule really the toughest schedule?

Though your team may have the toughest schedule entering a season, it does not mean your team will actually have the toughest schedule. In fact, since 2002, the team with the toughest schedule based on previous season results has never had the toughest schedule at the end of the season (though the 2004 Dolphins had the second-toughest). On the flip side, the 2002 Bills entered the season tied with the Chargers for the toughest schedule, but wound up with the third-easiest schedule in the NFL.

Most Difficult Schedule

Based on opponents' previous season results

Can you make the playoffs with the toughest schedule?

Since 2002, of the 11 teams that entered the season with -- or tied for -- the toughest schedule, only three actually made the playoffs.

Do teams make the playoffs with the easiest schedule?

Since 2002, of the seven teams that entered the season with -- or tied for -- the easiest schedule, only one actually made the playoffs. The 2003 Seahawks were tied with the Cardinals for the easiest schedule. That season, Seattle went 10-6 and lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Season Results of Teams With Easiest Schedule
Based on opponents' previous season results

Here goes ESPN again trying to use the work "Only" to distract people from actual numbers... Only 3 / 11 teams made the playoffs. Well Only 12 of 32 teams in league would make the playoff in any given year, or very close to 4 of 11.

If pure random chance says 4 of 11 teams should make he playoffs, but only 3 of 11 actually do, that's a difference of 1 out of 11 teams that actually missed the playoffs because of schedule difficulty - and when 12 teams make the playoffs, that's about 1 team per year,

Then I look at Reignman's numbers:

Apr 13, 2022 21:47:43 GMT -6 Reignman said:

So here's what I did. I took every team since 2003 who had a top 10 easy SOS to begin the year, like they did, except instead of "projected win totals", I just counted how many teams actually improved their record over the previous year with that "easy" schedule. Which 88 of the 182 teams did (48.4%). 75 (41.2%) ended up worse. Of note, 78 (42.9%) of those 182 teams finished the season with a top 10 easy SOS as well. Only 35 (19.2%) ended with a top 10 difficult schedule.

On the flip side, 201 teams began the year with a top 10 difficult SOS and 99 (49.3%) finished with a worse record than the previous year, and 85 (42.3%) ended up better. 71 (35.3%) of these teams finished with a top 10 difficult schedule as well, while only 43 (21.4%) ended up with a top 10 easy schedule.

So you have a 48.4% chance of improving your record over the previous year with an easy schedule compared to 42.3% with a difficult schedule. I guess 48.4 is better than 42.3 xD. #ChampionshipMindset

48% vs 42% odds of something happening that's ~ a 6% difference... 6% *32 teams in the league = ~2 teams. That's close enough for me... In any given year it seem like pre-season strength of schedule will impact 2 about teams: 1 will miss the playoffs because of a hard schedule, 1 will make the playoffs because of an easy schedule.

Obviously, the one that makes it simply due to random circumstance is the Packers. So that just leaves 1 team a year to get screwed.

Raptorman Hall of Fame Inductee Posts: 18,523 Likes: 8,271 Fan Since: November 6, 1966.	2022 NFL Strength of Schedule - Vikings #10 Apr 14, 2022 9:38:21 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Raptorman on Apr 14, 2022 9:38:21 GMT -6 Seattle is 4 and Rams are 30th they play the same teams except for 3. Yeah, no. This is BS.
	Last Edit: Apr 14, 2022 9:40:28 GMT -6 by Raptorman You can't truly call yourself "peaceful" unless you are capable of great violence. If you are not capable of great violence, you are not peaceful, you are harmless.

wxman91
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2022 NFL Strength of Schedule - Vikings #10 Apr 14, 2022 11:51:07 GMT -6 via mobile Danchat likes this

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Post by wxman91 on Apr 14, 2022 11:51:07 GMT -6

Apr 14, 2022 9:38:21 GMT -6 Raptorman said:

Seattle is 4 and Rams are 30th they play the same teams except for 3. Yeah, no. This is BS.

It is actually 5 games different because you have to count the games between the teams. Vegas is way down on Seattle and up on LA, so those two games make a big difference.