Post by Danchat on Aug 23, 2023 19:34:35 GMT -6
Sportsology’s research shows that over the past five years, the NFL has the lowest average GM tenure of any of the big five U.S. sports (2.1 years) and the smallest hiring window. This will come into focus next week on “Black Monday,” the day after the regular season concludes, when teams frequently announce key management moves.
I went over the article but there isn't any explanation of how they calculated this outside of saying it was the past 5 years, assuming that means 2018-2022. There were 12 new GMs hired in 2021 and 2022, which would count for 1 / 2 years tenured. If this is the method that the author used, it would skew the stats because none have been fired yet, thus it doesn't paint an accurate picture of how long the actual tenure will end up being. It is quite apparent from the work I've shown that 2.1 isn't anywhere close to reality when you consider how long GMs get until they are fired, from 2008-2023 it's about 6 years, but if you look at the span of 2018-2022 then I'd guess it's between 4 to 5.
And that's not even to mention that 4 of those 12 openings in 2021/2022 came due to retirement / promotion and not actually another GM being fired.
I'll do a bit more work: let's examine the frequency of GMs getting fired.
There have been 46 firings / retirements in the past 13 years, meaning 3.5 new GMs are needed every year. An average tenure of 2.1 is clearly impossible, as it would require an average of 8 firings per year, thus making 16 fired every two years to get to the 2 years per tenure. The few GMs who have 15+ year tenures make it mathematically impossible, for even a single long tenure like Saints' Mickey Loomis of 22 years it would take 18 GMs with one year tenures just to make the average 2.1 years.