[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets

Danchat
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[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 5, 2022 15:51:03 GMT -6 Funkytown, Uncle, and 2 more like this

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Post by Danchat on Mar 5, 2022 15:51:03 GMT -6

Having finished my offseason guide, I did some research on the 2022 free agent class and I'd like to share what I've found. I've complied a list of free agents that the Vikings could be interested in. Here are the four types of valuations I have for each free agent:

PFF - Bases valuation on PFF grades, past contracts
Over the Cap - Has a formula for valuation, bases it on their own performance metric
Spotrac - Bases valuation on past contracts
Danchat - Based on past contracts, plus I try to use more of an 'eye test' for the valuation. I picked the $ amount before looking at the other valuations

Offensive Guards

Brandon Scherff
Danchat: $12-13M
PFF: $16.7M
OTC: $4.4M
SPT: $12.9M

Austin Corbett
Danchat: $9-10M
PFF: $9.25M
OTC: $6.3M
SPT: $8.7M

James Daniels
Danchat: $10-11M
PFF: $12.5M
OTC: $6.2M
SPT: $7.3M

I just can't get on board Scherff with younger options like Corbett and Daniels who are considerably younger and have been far more durable.

Centers

Brian Allen
Danchat: $10-11M
PFF: $7.25M
OTC: $4.3M
SPT: $5.4M

Ryan Jensen
Danchat: $9-10M
PFF: $13M
OTC: $9.1M
SPT: $10M

Ben Jones
Danchat: $11-12M
PFF: $6.67M
OTC: $6.1M

Sign me up for Allen or Jones if they come as cheap as the other sources suggest. Both would be big upgrades over Bradbury.

Defensive Line

Bilal Nichols
Danchat: $4-6M
PFF: $8M
OTC: $6M

DaQuan Jones
Danchat: $4-6M
PFF: $5.75M
OTC: $4.35M

Maliek Collins
Danchat: $4-5M
PFF: $9.25M
OTC: $5M

Tim Settle
Danchat: $3-4M
PFF: $4.25M
OTC: $600K

Nichols and Jones would be nice additions to help fix the leaky run defense, and Settle and Collins would make for nice rotational guys who can rush the passer.

Edge Rushers

Haason Reddick
Danchat: $12-14M
PFF: $11.67M
OTC: ??
SPT: $15.3M

Emmanuel Ogbah
Danchat: $13-15M
PFF: $15.5M
OTC: $12.4M
SPT: $10M

Lorenzo Carter
Danchat: $4-5M
PFF: $4M
OTC: $4.4M

Jacob Martin
Danchat: $4-5M
PFF: $3.25M
OTC: $5.6M

I really like Ogbah, but $15M year is a lot! Good pass rushers are rare and usually don't hit the market very often.

Linebackers

De'vondre Campbell
Danchat: $8-10M
PFF: $9M
OTC: $6.2M

Josey Jewell
Danchat: $7-9M
OTC: $940K

A.J. Johnson
Danchat: $7-8M
PFF: $7M
OTC: $1.2M

Kyzir White
Danchat: $7-8M
PFF: $6.25M
OTC: $11.1M

Leighton Vander Esch
Danchat: $6-7M
PFF: $8.5M
OTC: $4.8M

With Barr leaving and a move to 3-4, the Vikings will probably need to add at least one full-time LB.
Most of these guys have 3-4 experience.

Cornerbacks

J.C. Jackson
Danchat: $16-18M
PFF: $118M
OTC: $13.7M
SPT: $10.9M

Rasul Douglas
Danchat: $7-8M
PFF: $6.75M
OTC: $11M
SPT: $9.2M

Charvarius Ward
Danchat: $10-11M
PFF: $11.5M
OTC: $6M
SPT: $9.9M

Darious Williams
Danchat: $8-9M
PFF: $13M
OTC: $5M
SPT: $14.6M

Donte Jackson
Danchat: $9-10M
PFF: $10M
OTC: $3M

D.J. Reed
Danchat: $7-9M
PFF: $8M
OTC: $15M

Ahkello Witherspoon
Danchat: $5-6M
PFF: $4M
OTC: $2.3M

Danny Johnson
Danchat: $1-2M
OTC: $1.6M

Lots of options out there, and it feels like the Vikings will be adding at least one starting CB in free agency. Nickel CBs are usually cheap and can be found for cheap.

One more section:

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

WR Keelan Cole
Danchat: $3-4M
PFF: $6M
OTC: $2.65M

WR Cedrick Wilson
Danchat: $6-7M
PFF: $5.5M
OTC: $3.8M
SPT: $6M

WR Jamsion Crowder
Danchat: $3-4M
PFF: $4.5M
SPT: $12M
OTC: $2.4M

TE Max Williams
Danchat: $4-5M
PFF: $6M
OTC: $2.2M
SPT: $6.6M

TE Jared Cook
Danchat: $3-4M
PFF: $4M
OTC: $6.6M

See any bargains you like?

Last Edit: Mar 28, 2022 8:55:24 GMT -6 by Purple Pain

dauntessmallhands
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[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 5, 2022 17:46:01 GMT -6 Funkytown and Danchat like this

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Post by dauntessmallhands on Mar 5, 2022 17:46:01 GMT -6

Mar 5, 2022 15:51:03 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Having finished my offseason guide, I did some research on the 2022 free agent class and I'd like to share what I've found. I've complied a list of free agents that the Vikings could be interested in. Here are the four types of valuations I have for each free agent:

PFF - Bases valuation on PFF grades, past contracts
Over the Cap - Has a formula for valuation, bases it on their own performance metric
Spotrac - Bases valuation on past contracts
Danchat - Based on past contracts, plus I try to use more of an 'eye test' for the valuation. I picked the $ amount before looking at the other valuations

I'd be inclined to go after young guys who have yet to realize their full potential.

For Guard, I think the prices for guys who are good pass blockers is going to go up a decent chunk. So of your list I would go with Corbett but I think he's gonna be pricey. But I think Connor Williams could be a guy that shows improvement and might come cheaper.

C - Bradley Bozeman. Ben Jones at the PFF price. Cole as depth but maybe even as a starter.

DI - Joseph-Day if we go big. DaQuan Jones if we go cheaper. Or maybe Derrick Nnadi. But some decent run stopping NT

Edge - One of Reddick or Landry would be my big spend for the off season.

LB - Campbell or Johnson

CB - DJ Reed. Rasul Douglas. Ahkello Witherspoon (as depth). Sidney Jones (depth if we go zone coverage). I would consider bringing Hughes back.

FS - I would consider bringing Woods back at like 2/6-7. Or I would bring back Harris on the cheap as a depth piece.

WR - feel pretty good about our core. might consider a 4/5 for depth. Maybe a Rashard Higgins as Thielen depth if he can't stay healthy.

TE - OJ Howard maybe. Just to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle. Or I would consider having Ham rotate as a blocking/goal line TE

Last Edit: Mar 5, 2022 17:59:46 GMT -6 by Danchat

idavike
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[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 5, 2022 19:46:57 GMT -6 Funkytown and Danchat like this

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Post by idavike on Mar 5, 2022 19:46:57 GMT -6

Since we have a new GM and HC, ideally, they go young and build the core. On the surface, it appears they new regime wants to fix the trenches. If Cousins doesn't playball, it might be a year of signing only one or two young guys and hope the draft nets some decent building blocks for 2023 and beyond.

OG - might have to pass on the ones mentioned altogether, maybe just a battle royal between a "renewed" Davis, resigned Cole, and a top 3 rounder draft pick.
OC - Allen or Jones to solidify the Oline. Although KOC spoke highly of Bradbury in recent interview.
DL - BIG SPLASH with either Nichols or Joseph-Day
Edge - just draft one in 1st or 2nd round
ILB - Vander Esch -> I'm a sucker for the home state hero. He comes from Riggins, ID (don't blink you'll miss it) and they still play 8-man football there. Good run stopper though
CB - Ward is good. But reaping a combination of Williams or Fuller for CB and either Daeyon or Callahan for nickel I like better. that's about $10-11M/year. Draft required here
TE - undecided since I'm not sure how many will be needed in the new scheme. The idea of using Ham in some sort of H-back role is intriguing.
WR - no FA's unless someone goes down, just draft one and don't let KC get another small, twitchy, speedster.

Right now, I don't see a lot of cap room this year if they keep Kirk, so that means very little FA additions. Even with all your hard work and effort showing us all they can make a bigger splash in the FA market, just skeptical if they will. Thanks again

Last Edit: Mar 5, 2022 19:58:04 GMT -6 by idavike

vikingpwr Living Legend Posts: 21,389 Likes: 4,606	[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 5, 2022 21:52:36 GMT -6 beckmt likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingpwr on Mar 5, 2022 21:52:36 GMT -6 Mar 5, 2022 19:46:57 GMT -6 idavike said: KOC spoke highly of Bradbury in recent interview. What do you expect Kevin O'Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to say about viking players?

idavike
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[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 5, 2022 22:23:33 GMT -6

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Post by idavike on Mar 5, 2022 22:23:33 GMT -6

Mar 5, 2022 21:52:36 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Mar 5, 2022 19:46:57 GMT -6 idavike said:

KOC spoke highly of Bradbury in recent interview.

What do you expect Kevin O'Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to say about viking players?

I know what your implying, but the fact they are mentioning him means they are really evaluating him and probably the RG spot. Maybe they think they can improve his game enough this year to be serviceable in the new scheme. Afterall, he is listed as 6'3", 306 lbs and Brian Allen is only 6-1, 298 lbs. Still doubt they pick up his 5th year, but it buys time for a lower round pick to develop for a year. Or they are quietly shopping him to OC needy teams like Philly, TB, Car, Sea, Mia, Hou, etc. I won't take anything for word this time of year.

vikingpwr
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[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 6, 2022 1:02:56 GMT -6

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Post by vikingpwr on Mar 6, 2022 1:02:56 GMT -6

Mar 5, 2022 22:23:33 GMT -6 idavike said:

Mar 5, 2022 21:52:36 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

What do you expect Kevin O'Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to say about viking players?

I know what your implying, but the fact they are mentioning him means they are really evaluating him and probably the RG spot. Maybe they think they can improve his game enough this year to be serviceable in the new scheme. Afterall, he is listed as 6'3", 306 lbs and Brian Allen is only 6-1, 298 lbs. Still doubt they pick up his 5th year, but it buys time for a lower round pick to develop for a year. Or they are quietly shopping him to OC needy teams like Philly, TB, Car, Sea, Mia, Hou, etc. I won't take anything for word this time of year.

The fact is the media asks questions and you must answer those questions politely for those involved. Bradbury, Cousins etc....... We live in a extreme, politically correct world so you wouldn't bad mouth a player after you were just hired for a HC or GM job. Everything is rosey right now. We as fans have no idea if Kwesi and O'Connell want any of the players that are currently on the roster because they haven't shown their hand yet............

I personally want to see a new starting QB and center this season.

Last Edit: Mar 6, 2022 1:04:51 GMT -6 by vikingpwr

marksp18
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[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 6, 2022 20:21:48 GMT -6 Funkytown, Danchat, and 2 more like this

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Post by marksp18 on Mar 6, 2022 20:21:48 GMT -6

I think Josey Jewell should be a consideration since he played for Donatell last year. Same with Kyle Fuller and Bryce Callahan.

I like DJ Reed but he could be close to 10M per year or more.

If not Callahan who is oft injured, I like K'Waun Williams for the slot CB spot.

I do not see any offensive lineman but Austin Corbett makes sense because he played for the Rams last year.

I think a backup veteran safety like a Malik Hooker would bring some insurance.

I personally would go after Justin Reid if they plan on letting Smith go after this season.

There is no receiver I would sign. I would make sure to draft one early to replace Thielen in 2023.

MidwinterViking Veteran Posts: 1,439 Likes: 2,125	[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 9, 2022 12:32:43 GMT -6 ukvikings likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by MidwinterViking on Mar 9, 2022 12:32:43 GMT -6 I know! How about Amari Cooper as a succession plan to Adam Thielen! [slowly sits back down] Never mind...

idavike Veteran Posts: 1,338 Likes: 914	[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 9, 2022 22:45:58 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by idavike on Mar 9, 2022 22:45:58 GMT -6 Bobby Wagner is available, any takers?

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,657 Likes: 31,579 Fan Since: 1998	[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 14, 2022 2:17:37 GMT -6 Danchat likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Mar 14, 2022 2:17:37 GMT -6 Mar 9, 2022 22:45:58 GMT -6 idavike said: Bobby Wagner is available, any takers? He's probably going to want to go to a true contender. Just a guess, though...
	Last Edit: Mar 14, 2022 2:18:03 GMT -6 by Funkytown

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[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 14, 2022 2:25:45 GMT -6

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Post by Funkytown on Mar 14, 2022 2:25:45 GMT -6

Mar 5, 2022 19:46:57 GMT -6 idavike said:

ILB - Vander Esch -> I'm a sucker for the home state hero. He comes from Riggins, ID (don't blink you'll miss it) and they still play 8-man football there. Good run stopper though.

You're new here, so you don't know this, but ... my season ticket partner is Leighton's uncle, Ivan.

My crew and a bunch of the Vander Esch fam went down the Vikings-Cowboys game in Dallas in November of 2019. Great game! Whew! Thanks, Kendricks and Kearse!

Anyway, the way Ivan talks, Leighton LOVES Dallas, and he'll be staying there if they offer him a contract. Sounds like he's willing to take less to stay home, as well. We shall see if his inside info is correct or not. I think it'd be cool to see him end up in purple, though. As of now, Ivan has no issue rooting against his "punk nephew". lol. Would be cool for our group to root for him for a few years.

Last Edit: Mar 14, 2022 2:27:15 GMT -6 by Funkytown

idavike
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[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 14, 2022 9:22:15 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by idavike on Mar 14, 2022 9:22:15 GMT -6

Mar 14, 2022 2:25:45 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

Mar 5, 2022 19:46:57 GMT -6 idavike said:

ILB - Vander Esch -> I'm a sucker for the home state hero. He comes from Riggins, ID (don't blink you'll miss it) and they still play 8-man football there. Good run stopper though.

You're new here, so you don't know this, but ... my season ticket partner is Leighton's uncle, Ivan.

My crew and a bunch of the Vander Esch fam went down the Vikings-Cowboys game in Dallas in November of 2019. Great game! Whew! Thanks, Kendricks and Kearse!

Anyway, the way Ivan talks, Leighton LOVES Dallas, and he'll be staying there if they offer him a contract. Sounds like he's willing to take less to stay home, as well. We shall see if his inside info is correct or not. I think it'd be cool to see him end up in purple, though. As of now, Ivan has no issue rooting against his "punk nephew". lol. Would be cool for our group to root for him for a few years.

That is a cool connection. And I have little hope Leighton would sign here. He is a good run stuffer, faster than you expect, and he gives it his all on every play. Wagner was another idea but it sounds like he is going to want to stay in the division and stick it to Seattle twice a year.

My small connections to the NFL are from days passed. I use to banter back and forth with my nephew, who knows S Kurt Coleman somehow. Coleman told my nephew that Zimmer was a D*ck way back in 2014. Today, as more and more of this information is coming about Zim, I am proven wrong. Oh well. My avatar pic is the last Packer SB trophy and the hand is my cousins. His physical trainer is the Packers trainer (taken the day after the trophy got back from Tiffany's), actually his family has a long history with the Packers organization dating back to the first 2 Super Bowls. Good stories there.

vikingpwr Living Legend Posts: 21,389 Likes: 4,606	[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 14, 2022 11:50:40 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingpwr on Mar 14, 2022 11:50:40 GMT -6 Za'Darius Smith if healthy could be a good addition.

smcamp3 Water Boy Posts: 30 Likes: 26	[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 14, 2022 12:41:31 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by smcamp3 on Mar 14, 2022 12:41:31 GMT -6 Scratch Reddick off the list, signing with Philly. Would have been expensive but loved the idea

MidwinterViking
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[OC] Free Agent Valuations - Potential Targets Mar 14, 2022 16:08:45 GMT -6

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Post by MidwinterViking on Mar 14, 2022 16:08:45 GMT -6

Mar 5, 2022 15:51:03 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

WR Keelan Cole
Danchat: $3-4M
PFF: $6M
OTC: $2.65M

WR Cedrick Wilson
Danchat: $6-7M
PFF: $5.5M
OTC: $3.8M
SPT: $6M

WR Jamsion Crowder
Danchat: $3-4M
PFF: $4.5M
SPT: $12M
OTC: $2.4M

TE Max Williams
Danchat: $4-5M
PFF: $6M
OTC: $2.2M
SPT: $6.6M

TE Jared Cook
Danchat: $3-4M
PFF: $4M
OTC: $6.6M

Christian Kirk gets 4 years and $72M (Spotrac) or $84M (ESPN). His Over the Cap valuation is $10m/ year.
Evan Engram get's $9-10M with an Over the cap valuation of $2-5M depending on injury adjustment.

Something that the Browns did last year was wait until very late to sign Clowney and he came at a huge discount .... well discount compared to the stupid high dollars thrown around on the first day of the signing period. I wonder if part of the reason we're not seeing much movement is because the Vikings have no intention of spending early while the stupid money is being thrown around. I'm ok with that.