Post by Funkytown on Jul 25, 2017 19:29:16 GMT -6
The Tangible Value of NFL Sacks by Derrik Klassen
Rest at the link: settingedge.com/sackskilldrives
To chart each of the 1,118 sacks last season, I tracked the down-and-distance, amount of yards lost, whether or not a team converted a first down following the sack, and additional data (penalties, strip sacks, etc.) that could go along with the sack or the drive. Of course, penalties and other things can distort what would have normally been a drive-killing sack, so there were a few tweaks that had to be made.
For example, if a penalty or a muffed punt occurred on a punt or a field goal try, the sack from that drive still counted as a drive-killer because the defense initially forced the offense to get rid of the ball. However, if a sack was registered on 2nd down, but there was a defensive penalty on 3rd down (a normal down) that granted the offense a first down, then the sack was not considered a drive-killer because the defense failed to take advantage of the sack while the offense was still on the field.
Now, let’s start with a broad brush.
939 out of 1,118 sacks (83.99%) last year resulted in a drive being killed. Conversely, just 179 out of 1,118 sacks (16.01%) resulted in the offense being able to bounce back and sustain their drive, even if just for one more set of downs. The difference is staggering. Defenses are almost 70% more likely to kill a drive after getting a sack than they are to surrender another set of downs. At first glance, the old adage that sacks kill drives holds true.
Of course, not every sack is the same. Giving up a sack on first down is salvageable, while surrendering a sack on third down is almost certain death. Likewise, losing ten yards on a sack is different than losing just two.
332 sacks were given up on first down last year. When giving up a sack on first down, no matter the yards lost, offenses managed to save the drive and pick up a first down 31.02% of the time. Considering the context of having given up yardage on the first play of a drive, a 31.02% drive success rate doesn’t sound too bad. However, according to Football Outsiders’ “Drive Success Rate” stat, roughly 70% of four-down series convert for a first down or a touchdown. Even on the least harmful down to give up a sack, the impact of the loss of a down and any amount of yards is dramatic enough to cut in half an offense’s likelihood of success on a given series.
Sacks on second down are even tougher to rebound from. Of the 310 second down sacks in 2016, offenses sustained drives after surrendering a sack on second down 19.35% of the time. The drop off from a first down sack to a second down sack is less drastic than I’d anticipated, though a roughly 20% success rate is still less than one-third of the normal success rate.
As expected, third down sacks are the most common type of sack and the most detrimental. There were 462 sacks on third down in 2016. Teams were able to miraculously convert on fourth down just 16 times after being sacked on third down, which comes out to 3.46% of drives. Considering must-convert situations tend to only come late in the fourth quarter, it’s no wonder that most drives ended in punts or field goals following a sack on third down.
For example, if a penalty or a muffed punt occurred on a punt or a field goal try, the sack from that drive still counted as a drive-killer because the defense initially forced the offense to get rid of the ball. However, if a sack was registered on 2nd down, but there was a defensive penalty on 3rd down (a normal down) that granted the offense a first down, then the sack was not considered a drive-killer because the defense failed to take advantage of the sack while the offense was still on the field.
Now, let’s start with a broad brush.
939 out of 1,118 sacks (83.99%) last year resulted in a drive being killed. Conversely, just 179 out of 1,118 sacks (16.01%) resulted in the offense being able to bounce back and sustain their drive, even if just for one more set of downs. The difference is staggering. Defenses are almost 70% more likely to kill a drive after getting a sack than they are to surrender another set of downs. At first glance, the old adage that sacks kill drives holds true.
Of course, not every sack is the same. Giving up a sack on first down is salvageable, while surrendering a sack on third down is almost certain death. Likewise, losing ten yards on a sack is different than losing just two.
332 sacks were given up on first down last year. When giving up a sack on first down, no matter the yards lost, offenses managed to save the drive and pick up a first down 31.02% of the time. Considering the context of having given up yardage on the first play of a drive, a 31.02% drive success rate doesn’t sound too bad. However, according to Football Outsiders’ “Drive Success Rate” stat, roughly 70% of four-down series convert for a first down or a touchdown. Even on the least harmful down to give up a sack, the impact of the loss of a down and any amount of yards is dramatic enough to cut in half an offense’s likelihood of success on a given series.
Sacks on second down are even tougher to rebound from. Of the 310 second down sacks in 2016, offenses sustained drives after surrendering a sack on second down 19.35% of the time. The drop off from a first down sack to a second down sack is less drastic than I’d anticipated, though a roughly 20% success rate is still less than one-third of the normal success rate.
As expected, third down sacks are the most common type of sack and the most detrimental. There were 462 sacks on third down in 2016. Teams were able to miraculously convert on fourth down just 16 times after being sacked on third down, which comes out to 3.46% of drives. Considering must-convert situations tend to only come late in the fourth quarter, it’s no wonder that most drives ended in punts or field goals following a sack on third down.
Rest at the link: settingedge.com/sackskilldrives
... and neither is this Chris guy.