Revisiting Your Preseason Predictions

SAM’S PREDICTIONS (3-7)

Rashod Hill will last the entire year at left tackle

Wrong. Hill started only five games and was one of the lowest-graded tackles in the NFL. His poor play forced the Vikings’ hand to accelerate Christian Darrisaw, who ended up being the No. 4 rookie tackle, according to Pro Football Focus. It was surprising to see Hill play as badly as he did, to the point where the Vikings preferred Blake Brandel as an extra offensive lineman and started Oli Udoh over him in a pinch in Weeks 13-14.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette makes 10+ catches as a receiver

Probably wrong. The fifth-round rookie would need eight catches against the Bears to make this come true, which almost certainly won’t happen with the Vikings playing their starters. K.J. Osborn’s emergence kept Smith-Marsette down the depth chart, and Dede Westbrook got snaps above him as well. Smith-Marsette did cash in his first career touchdown at Chicago in Week 15.

Chris Herndon will outgain Tyler Conklin

So, so wrong. A comically bad prediction in retrospect. Chris Herndon’s reception count (4) barely exceeded his penalty count (2), while Tyler Conklin put together a massive season that will probably get him paid a boatload of money next spring. His 587 yards are 12th amongst tight ends. Herndon’s 40 yards put him in a tie for 84th.

Kene Nwangwu gets used more than Mike Boone did

Barely true. An injury early on kept Nwangwu on the sideline, but his 16 touches in the offense exceeded Boone’s 13 the year before. Toss in his special teams impact on kickoff return, and Nwangwu was clearly more prominent.

Everson Griffen finishes second on the team in sacks

Barely false. This was a good prediction that got foiled because of Griffen’s off-field issues that surfaced in November and effectively ended his season. Griffen is presently tied for third in sacks with five, and he might’ve even stayed in a second-place tie had D.J. Wonnum not gotten three sacks against Justin Fields and the Bears. It was clear Griffen was the team’s second-best edge rusher as he and Hunter looked like their vintage selves in the first half of the season.

Mackensie Alexander is the Vikings most effective cornerback

Super wrong. Alexander ended as Minnesota’s lowest-graded starting defensive player with just over a 40 mark on Pro Football Focus. He’s allowed the second-most yards on the team entering Week 18 and a 117.4 passer rating into his coverage. The signing seemed smart at the time, but not even Alexander’s scheme knowledge was enough to elevate him on a struggling defense.

Xavier Woods creates 5+ turnovers

Correct! Woods hit the cutoff with his third interception of the year against the Rams in Week 16 after recording two forced fumbles earlier in the year. Woods was around the football enough to make plenty of plays and help me with this prediction; but too often he was a step behind for his signing to be deemed a success.

Greg Joseph won’t last through the bye week

Wrong, but Joseph tried to make it come true. The new kicker missed five kicks leading up to the Week 7 bye, including a game-losing boot at Arizona from 37 yards. He also missed a potential game-winner at Carolina. However, Joseph saved face with a couple huge 50+ yarders, both at Cincinnati to send the game to overtime and versus Detroit to win it at the horn.

Kirk Cousins gets booed by Week 5

I’m taking credit. During the Vikings’ second consecutive offensive clunker in Week 5 against the Lions, the Vikings offense was serenaded by boos as it exited the field during the game. It was a predictable booing as the Vikings struggled against an inferior Lions club.

The Vikings finish 11-6

Nope. I made this prediction immediately after the schedule came out and was too stubborn to move myself off of it despite alarming signs during the preseason and training camp. Although if we’re using Mike Zimmer’s logic, the Vikings were only four close losses away from me being correct.

MATTHEW’S PREDICTIONS (1-9 with one undecided)

Garrett Bradbury finishes with a PFF grade above 70

Wrong. Pretty sure it’s not mathematically possible for Bradbury to jump 10 points in the final game. He currently sits at a 60.6, which is down 0.8 points from his grade last season. Matthew didn’t ask for all that much out of Bradbury here, but his pass-blocking doomed him once again. If only Coller had asked for 20+ receiving yards!

Greg Joseph will rank in the top 10 in field goal percentage

Close, but no. Joseph currently ranks 16th at 86.5 percent, while the No. 10 kicker, Jake Elliott, is at 90.3 percent. Ryan Ficken did say Thursday, however, that he believes Joseph has a future with the team.

Eric Kendricks leads the team in interceptions

Undecided. Kendricks would need one interception Sunday to tie the team lead in picks with three. (As of this writing, he’s yet to be activated off the COVID list.) Kendricks didn’t find himself around the ball as much this year. Maybe quarterbacks got wise that throwing around Kendricks on third down was a bad idea.

Justin Jefferson ends up with fewer yards than last year

Incorrect, though it was a reasonable prediction since Jefferson stayed so healthy in 2020. With over 1,500 yards entering Week 18, Jefferson surpassed his 2020 total by over 100 yards and has a chance to exceed 3,000 yards in his first two seasons. Props to Jefferson for playing every game since arriving in the league — not only avoiding injury but avoiding COVID-19. He’s just one of 18 wide receivers to play in each game since the start of 2020.

Kirk Cousins wins one Player of the Month award

Wrong. Cousins gave himself a great chance in September, but the Vikings’ 1-2 record likely cost him. In the three games that month, Cousins threw for 918 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was one of his better stretches in purple, but the Vikings didn’t take full advantage by losing two at the very end. Cooper Kupp won the September award instead.

Dede Westbrook is the first effective WR3 since Jarius Wright

Wrong, but Coller had the right thought process. Substitute K.J. Osborn for Dede Westbrook and this would’ve been correct. Westbrook was seemingly brought in to be a WR3, but Osborn usurped him with an excellent preseason and strong early-season results. Osborn enters Week 18 with 634 yards and six touchdowns — a superb season — while Westbrook only contributed 10 grabs for 68 yards and no scores.

Michael Pierce and Dalvin Tomlinson total under 7 sacks combined

Probably correct. Entering Week 18, Pierce and Tomlinson have 4.5 sacks — 3.0 by Pierce and 1.5 by Tomlinson. They could both record a sack on Sunday and still be under Coller’s projection. Pierce missing half the season certainly helped Coller out since he logged two sacks in his first game of the year.

Danielle Hunter goes over 12 sacks

Wrong because of injury. Hunter may still wind up the team’s co-leader in sacks with six, and he was on pace to go over Coller’s prediction before a pectoral injury ended his season. If Hunter and Griffen had played the whole year, the Vikings could have two players with double-digit sacks. As it is, they may not have anyone that exceeds half a dozen.

Mike Zimmer's defense ranks between 7th and 10th in points allowed

Nope. For myriad reasons the defense went sideways and sits at 25th in points allowed through 17 weeks. Coller was far from the only person fooled — nobody expected it to get this bad.

Dalvin Cook clears 330 carries

Incorrect. Cook would’ve had to stay healthy for this one to have a chance. In his 12 games played, Cook has averaged just under 20 carries a game. Had he started all 16, he would be between 310-320 carries entering the final week. Instead, he sits at 235 carries with one game remaining.

The Vikings finish 10-7

Closer than Sam’s but still a ways off. The Vikings simply didn’t take advantage in enough winnable games and were never able to eclipse the .500 mark.