2022 QB Options: Supply vs. Demand (Keep Kirk!)
Mar 3, 2022 22:09:57 GMT -6
Funkytown and comet52 like this
Post by MidwinterViking on Mar 3, 2022 22:09:57 GMT -6
They don't post a full WAR list, but based on the examples they do have, my guess is that QBs are so impactful that most stable starters meet that threshold. Even in their examples of rookies, Mac Jones was nearly 3 WAR while being #15 in passer rating, #16 in QBR. The full range of WAR for QBs looks something like:
Zach Wilson: 0
Mac Jones: 3
Patrick Mahomes: 6.5
So when they say: "Paying too much money to a quarterback leads to diminishing returns along the rest of the roster — unless that quarterback is a four-to-five win quarterback in terms of WAR." almost every QB that earns a 2nd contract meets that threshold simply based on the reality that QB play is so important, all QBs will have a big WAR.
And if you buy into this model, then it's even more apparent that the easiest way to get value via WAR is by finding a QB in the draft - Burrow and Herbert are likely around $1-2M per WAR.
Plus, I really don't know how much Wins Above Replacement belongs in football, where coaching is such a bigger factor than it is in baseball.
But even if I pretend WAR is a good football measurement, I think the dynamic they don't account for is scarcity. I counted 14 QBs with contracts like the ones they talked about, plus probably another 3-6 on rookie contracts. So there are in the ballpark of 20 QBs worth paying big money between 32 teams. They don't address other positions, but I have to think QB is the only position where you can get 3+ WAR from a single player. Game theory economics says teams should be willing to spend whatever the other team pays +$1 (repeated many times), and it would still be good spend on a QB.
Making up a hypothetical team that gets 13 wins with a $200M salary cap and a 4 WAR, $40M QB.
QB = 4 WAR/$40M = $10M per Win Above Replacement
Everyone else = 9 WAR / $160M = $18M per Win Above Replacement
In that case 4 WAR is at the low end of what they consider "good". $40M is also pretty expensive. And the QB is still a way better value than the rest of the team. To be an equal WAR value to the rest of the team, that 4WAR QB would need to be paid something like $60M, and a 6 WAR QB (i.e. Mahomes) on a 13 win team would need to be paid around $90M per season to be of equal value to the team.
Based on that it looks like reality is one or more of 3 things:
- PFF grossly overrates the Win contribution of QBs
- Every starting QB is significantly underpaid
- QB salaries will be justified in continuing to climb
... and neither is this Chris guy.