Post by legendsofthenorth on Jan 7, 2022 7:47:45 GMT -6
1. Each team has the same amount of drives on offense and defense in a game unless their is a ST TD. If you look at Minnesota you will most likely see 180 plus offensive drives (they had 2 tds on ST so may have two less). If you look at Green Bay you will see similar number of Off and Def drives as well (I don't know if they scored or gave up any ST TDs).
2. TOP for each drive in the NFL if I remember correctly falls between 2:30 and 4 minutes so it's not like TOI is a major factor when determining if your QB is good or not. Why? Because of how teams run their own style of offense
3. So in turn...how many drives each team has also has no relevance on how a QB performs. I could say Rodgers has 25 less drives then the Vikings offense so he sucks....well that's not correct.
4. My point was TOP WINNING QBS have good defenses. Chiefs were what 4-4, then went on a 8 game run....why? Their defense got better.
If you want to just argue that you don't think Kirk isn't the right guy, then fine so be it. But to say he is the fault of why the Vikings missed the playoffs more than not with him here is just not true.
GB's offensive TOP per drive (#1 in the NFL): 3:25
MN's offensive TOP per drive (#30): 2:37
GB's drives defended: 157
MN's drives defended: 178
MN will likely have to defend 190 drives this season, GB as few as 165 or about 2 games fewer drives. Putting aside defenses tend to get tired when asked to defend too often while offenses tend to get better the more chances they have to score (wonder if this has something to do with all the late game scores by opposing teams?), statistically, even a great defense will end up giving up 3 more points, 40 more yards per game if they have to defend 2 more drives per game like ours has. For context, you take away 3 points and 40 yards per game from the Vikings and they would statistically have the same D per game as the AFC North winning Bengals.
As for the QB's impact on that stat, here are the teams in the bottom 5 in TOP offensively:
NYJ
Jax
MN
Hou
Seattle
Rookie QB, rookie QB, Cousins, rookie QB, Wilson/Geno Smith
Here are the top 5 teams:
GB
KC
TN
Den
Ind
MVP QB, MVP QB, better QB than Cousins, a QB who despite his flaws has always had a high TOP everywhere he has played, average QB but MVP RB
Coincidence that the 3 worst QBs, and a team who played their terrible backup for 4 games are all in the bottom 5 of this stat? Coincidence that Teddy, as an example, has has been the top 4 in TOP across 3 completely different offenses? Offenses like Carolina that were 32nd before he got there, 24th after he left. Or Denver that was 31st in 2020 but 3rd this season? Clearly QB plays the biggest factor in this stat.
Just to be clear though, a low TOP offensively is not always a bad thing, and a high one doesn't necessarily mean an offense is successful, as Teddy has proven last year and this. A low TOP and high scoring output for instance means a team has a big play, explosive offense that scores quickly. A high TOP that doesn't score a lot means it has a grind it out offense that settles for FGs too often. If we were top 10 in scoring per drive, the TOP wouldn't matter nearly as much, but we are 16th in that stat and gone 3 and out the 29th most. So the O is putting the D in a bad spot and not putting the points up to make up for it.
Man that is good research by you! I like this conversation as it is bring to light things I haven't thought of.
Bet if you go look at worst defenses and top defenses you might come to a different conclusion. One that I started at the very beginning that you have been arguing against. I am assuming the plays against those bottom defenses are 425 plus and the good ones will be under 350....hmm let me think why?? Bad qb or bad defense...
... and neither is this Chris guy.