With the 12th pick, your Minnesota Vikings select...

Should a WR be in play for the Vikings in the first round?

The Vikings have firmly chosen the path of contention. They’ve pushed money down the road for Cousins, Harrison Smith, Adam Thielen and are holding onto Danielle Hunter (for the time being). That signals the Vikings are trying to contend immediately. In doing so, they’ve fallen into many of the same moves that the Zimmer/Spielman previous regime pulled – signing run-stuffing defensive tackles, pushing money down the road and extending a certain controversial QB. One strategy they haven’t yet replicated — and would be wise to avoid — is trying to play both sides of the team-building coin. One of Zimmer and Spielman’s fatal flaws was not fully committing to either a rebuild or a full-on contender. They traded away Yannick Ngakoue in the middle of the 2020 season but held on to Riley Reiff, Anthony Harris and Kyle Rudolph only to miss the playoffs and lose all those players to free agency. Then in the offseason, they signed stop-gap defensive pieces but didn’t meaningfully address their offensive line in free agency leaving rookies to pick up the slack.

So, how does this apply to wide receivers? Well, if we’ve learned anything over the last couple of years, it’s that rookie wide receivers have the potential to make the biggest difference for their teams right out of the gate. Think Jamarr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, D.K. Metcalf, Hunter Renfrow, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown. These are just a handful of the wide receivers drafted in the last three years.

This is not the same for positions like offensive line or cornerback. Offensive linemen and cornerbacks go through such a steep learning curve in the NFL. For offensive linemen, it can take until year three or four before they really blossom.

PFF looked at this a couple years ago. Here are a couple charts I found really informative.



Same thing for EDGE. And similarly for cornerbacks, their first year production has very little correlation to long term NFL success.



Does it make sense to address those positions in the first round if you’ve essentially created a two-year contention window? You’d be betting your first-round pick is an outlier. But OL and CB are among their biggest areas of need. Yet drafting purely based on need is a flawed approach and their current needs historically come at positions that need time to develop.

That’s how you end up taking Garrett Bradbury in the first round. The Vikings disregarded positional value, saw a gaping hole on their roster and decided to fill it with the best center on the board.

That brings me to my point: At first glance, wide receiver is not an immediate need with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen still on the roster. But Thielen will be 32 before next season starts. There aren’t many current wide receivers that are 32 or older and successful. Here are some of the better names: Julio Jones (33), Emmanuel Sanders (35), Cole Beasley (32), Marvin Jones (32) Antonio Brown (32), T.Y. Hilton (32).

Could Thielen be the outlier? Absolutely. He’s been an outlier his entire career. But at the very least, the Vikings need a succession plan. With Kevin O’Connell coming from a Rams system that had three wide receivers on the field 86 percent of the time, KJ Osborn and Ihmir Smith-Marsette might be good depth but they aren’t expected to be game-breakers without big steps forward. If they are, it’s a huge win.

Combine that with the fact that wide receiver is one of the positions that are capable of having high-end success right away and the Vikings win-now approach, I see a really compelling argument for drafting a wide receiver in the first round this year. As bad as the defense has been, I’d argue that offensive improvement would be more impactful than anything the defense could do.

But should they wait?

One of the reasons why the Vikings could elect to wait on a wide receiver is the depth that has come out of the wide receiver class the last few years. Many of the wide receivers I previously mentioned, A.J. Brown, D.K Metcalf, Chase Claypool, Terry McLaurin, were all picked outside the first round. And it appears every draft from now on is going to be absolutely loaded with wide receivers.

So could the Vikings draft a CB or EDGE and wait until round two for a WR? I certainly see the merit there. But if you find someone in the draft that you think could have an impact like Jefferson or Chase or Lamb, you need to jump on it. The Vikings will almost assuredly have several of the top-five receivers still on the board at No. 12. Heck, they may have their pick of the group. The Vikings have experienced firsthand how valuable a star wide receiver is, especially on a cheap contract. Outside of the quarterback, I’m not sure there is a more valuable position to have a star on a rookie deal.