Post by MidwinterViking on Dec 7, 2021 18:57:31 GMT -6
The Steelers are beatable. It’s not tough to find flaws with them. Like the Lions, the Vikings should have the talent to win, but that didn’t work out. All of this is based on the assumption that the Vikings won’t beat themselves on the field (OMG phrasing). But since I can’t predict that, and instead of nitpicking an equally flawed opponent, I’m going through a scorecard of which player beat the Vikings, or was the most important one to shut down. This might give me an idea of who on the Steelers to be afraid of.
The Rules
My own rules for picking the player of interest in each game:
1) Try not to pick a QB. Unless the QB does something really amazing, pick someone more interesting
2) Have a bias for opponents’ offensive players. It’s been the Vikings defense that has been struggling more recently, so that side of the ball is the more likely source of an X Factor
3) Look for production above normal (or below if the Vikings won)
Game 1 – Bengals - Two choices, Jamar Chase and Joe Mixon. I would guess the Vikings prepared as if Tee Higgins would be the Bengals WR1. Mixon had a big total, but that was as much a product of volume, he only had a long of 19 yards and a fine, but not eye popping 4.4 ypc. So I give this to Chase based on his game changing TD.
Game 2 – Cardinals – The toughest game to pick. Deandre Hopkins influenced the defense out of position on Rondale Moore’s game changing TD. However none of that would happen without Kyler Murray’s escape. So even when I try to avoid QBs, this play isn’t even close for other QBs and I’ll pick Murray.
Game 3 – Seahawks – Tyler Locket had a very quiet game by his standards.
Game 4 - Browns – Even with a bias towards Cleveland’s offense and Chubb running for 100 yards, the Cleveland offense put up only 1 TD and 2 FGs. So instead, I’ll pick Myles
Garrett as a representative for the entire Browns D Line who blew up or offensive line.
Game 5 – Lions – Deandre Swift was obviously the Lions best player
Game 6 – Panthers – DJ Moore was bottled up until Patrick Peterson went out with an injury on the last drive, then he almost brought the Panthers back.
Game 7 – Cowboys – Cedric Wilson. Lamb and Cooper had bigger games, but they are generally the focus of the offense. It was Wilson’s long TD that turned the game for the Cowboys.
Game 8 – Ravens – Marquise Brown. I’m not picking Lamar Jackson because when he was running around, our defense held. When he stopped running and started throwing, the Ravens came back.
Game 9 – Chargers – Mike Williams was held well below his big games. Stopping him was key.
Game 10 – Packers – Marquez Valdes-Scantling almost beat us with a big play.
Game 11 – 49ers – Deebo Samuel had a big game and his runs opened up the game, however that's kind of expected for one of the emerging elite WRs in the league. Brandon Aiyuk had a season high in yards and made several plays.
Game 12 – Lions – Amon-Ra St Brown, obviously.
Scoring the positions, that’s
9 WRs - 1 RB - 1 QB - 1 DE
That’s less RBs than I expected for how bad our run D has been statistically.
What’s with all these WRs?
Not, all of those WRs aren’t really that interesting. Chase, Moore, and Samuel are all elite WR1s, so them influencing the game is kind of expected. Amon-Ra St Brown was sort of in that camp by default.
But a lot of the other guys aren’t the #1 option on their team. Shutting down Williams and Locket was key to winning. The others, Cedric Wilson, Marquise Brown, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Brandon Aiyuk have all very boom or bust players with a few quite games and some big games. In the case of Wilson, Brown and Aiyuk, they stepped up to beat the Vikings, Valdes-Scantling almost did. Mike Williams was shut down and we won (since then he’s had 2 big games in the 2 Charger wins). And they all have big play ability.
This is an alarming trend of letting secondary receivers change the game.There are other cases of this too; Rashod Higgins outgained Odel Beckham for the Browns. With Amon-Ra St. Brown coming on as Detroit’s #1 WR, Josh Reynolds had a respectable game.
The Point
If the point of all of this look back is to figure out who on the Steelers is the X factor the Vikings need to stop, everything points to Chase Claypool. He checks all the boxes that have hurt us in the past.
- He is a streaky player who might not be the focus of the defensive game plan
- He’s got the speed for big play ability (4 games with a 40 yard catch), something that has broken the Vikings before
- He’s not the number 1 target in their passing game
- The Steelers have looked for ways to get him the ball in the run game even while Dionte Johnson has been their top threat.
- He has a much higher yards per catch than the Steelers #1 WR (16.9 vs 12.0 for Johnson)
How to Beat the Steelers
The Vikings have to fix this recurring flaw of letting secondary receivers cripple them and remember to pay attention to Chase Claypool.
The Rules
My own rules for picking the player of interest in each game:
1) Try not to pick a QB. Unless the QB does something really amazing, pick someone more interesting
2) Have a bias for opponents’ offensive players. It’s been the Vikings defense that has been struggling more recently, so that side of the ball is the more likely source of an X Factor
3) Look for production above normal (or below if the Vikings won)
Game 1 – Bengals - Two choices, Jamar Chase and Joe Mixon. I would guess the Vikings prepared as if Tee Higgins would be the Bengals WR1. Mixon had a big total, but that was as much a product of volume, he only had a long of 19 yards and a fine, but not eye popping 4.4 ypc. So I give this to Chase based on his game changing TD.
Game 2 – Cardinals – The toughest game to pick. Deandre Hopkins influenced the defense out of position on Rondale Moore’s game changing TD. However none of that would happen without Kyler Murray’s escape. So even when I try to avoid QBs, this play isn’t even close for other QBs and I’ll pick Murray.
Game 3 – Seahawks – Tyler Locket had a very quiet game by his standards.
Game 4 - Browns – Even with a bias towards Cleveland’s offense and Chubb running for 100 yards, the Cleveland offense put up only 1 TD and 2 FGs. So instead, I’ll pick Myles
Garrett as a representative for the entire Browns D Line who blew up or offensive line.
Game 5 – Lions – Deandre Swift was obviously the Lions best player
Game 6 – Panthers – DJ Moore was bottled up until Patrick Peterson went out with an injury on the last drive, then he almost brought the Panthers back.
Game 7 – Cowboys – Cedric Wilson. Lamb and Cooper had bigger games, but they are generally the focus of the offense. It was Wilson’s long TD that turned the game for the Cowboys.
Game 8 – Ravens – Marquise Brown. I’m not picking Lamar Jackson because when he was running around, our defense held. When he stopped running and started throwing, the Ravens came back.
Game 9 – Chargers – Mike Williams was held well below his big games. Stopping him was key.
Game 10 – Packers – Marquez Valdes-Scantling almost beat us with a big play.
Game 11 – 49ers – Deebo Samuel had a big game and his runs opened up the game, however that's kind of expected for one of the emerging elite WRs in the league. Brandon Aiyuk had a season high in yards and made several plays.
Game 12 – Lions – Amon-Ra St Brown, obviously.
Scoring the positions, that’s
9 WRs - 1 RB - 1 QB - 1 DE
That’s less RBs than I expected for how bad our run D has been statistically.
What’s with all these WRs?
Not, all of those WRs aren’t really that interesting. Chase, Moore, and Samuel are all elite WR1s, so them influencing the game is kind of expected. Amon-Ra St Brown was sort of in that camp by default.
But a lot of the other guys aren’t the #1 option on their team. Shutting down Williams and Locket was key to winning. The others, Cedric Wilson, Marquise Brown, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Brandon Aiyuk have all very boom or bust players with a few quite games and some big games. In the case of Wilson, Brown and Aiyuk, they stepped up to beat the Vikings, Valdes-Scantling almost did. Mike Williams was shut down and we won (since then he’s had 2 big games in the 2 Charger wins). And they all have big play ability.
This is an alarming trend of letting secondary receivers change the game.There are other cases of this too; Rashod Higgins outgained Odel Beckham for the Browns. With Amon-Ra St. Brown coming on as Detroit’s #1 WR, Josh Reynolds had a respectable game.
The Point
If the point of all of this look back is to figure out who on the Steelers is the X factor the Vikings need to stop, everything points to Chase Claypool. He checks all the boxes that have hurt us in the past.
- He is a streaky player who might not be the focus of the defensive game plan
- He’s got the speed for big play ability (4 games with a 40 yard catch), something that has broken the Vikings before
- He’s not the number 1 target in their passing game
- The Steelers have looked for ways to get him the ball in the run game even while Dionte Johnson has been their top threat.
- He has a much higher yards per catch than the Steelers #1 WR (16.9 vs 12.0 for Johnson)
How to Beat the Steelers
The Vikings have to fix this recurring flaw of letting secondary receivers cripple them and remember to pay attention to Chase Claypool.
... and neither is this Chris guy.