Post by MidwinterViking on Nov 30, 2021 13:11:24 GMT -6
I was really only planning to do this for the difficult stretch of: Cowboys - Ravens - Chargers - Packers - 49ers. Let me know if this is interesting for less challenging games.
There are lots of ways to beat the Lions
Since the ways to beat the Lions are multitude, I didn’t have much research to do. So instead I looked back at the first game. I was looking for plays that had bad breaks for the Vikings. My feeling was they should have beaten the Lions more handily than they did in the 1st match up, and I wanted to see what was left on the field. Here is what I found:
Play 1
The two teams had traded long opening drives for FGs. Then Goff was sacked and fumbled. The Vikings were moving the ball on the subsequent drive. In the image below, Thielen had just caught a WR screen and turned up field.
In this image, Herndon (#89 just left / below Thielen) is about to commit a holding penalty. Herndon is in a great position to make the block, and the hold occurs after Thielen runs parallel to Herndon. The hold occurs as the defender tries to change directions and his feet are going out from under him.
I also took a closer snap of the penalty. It looks to me like the hold was caused as much by the defender slipping as he tries to come around the corner as it was Herndon taking him down. You can decide for yourself, but it looks to me like the defender is falling and Herndon's arms are still out for a block and he hasn't actually held him yet.
My take is that this hold was unnecessary and the defender had little chance to make it around Herndon to Thielen even if Herndon did nothing and just stood in the way. Additionally, the slip by the defender made the hold look worse than it really was. The result of the play would have set the Vikings up 1st & Goal at the 3, a likely TD. Instead, this put them in 1st & 20 at the 34 and resulted in a FG.
Potential Point Swing: 4
Play 2
Lions in their 2 minute drive at the end of the first half. Cephus makes a break on 3rd & 8. Patrick Peterson takes a bad angle on Cephus. If Peterson lines him up and brings him down as he catches the ball, this is probably 4th down.
[pic 2)
I wasn’t sure if I included this one because this is arguably just a good play by Cephus – and I was looking more for bad breaks by the Vikings. However, Peterson has been a very sure tackler and I think if given this play over, Peterson makes the play. I included it because it was a dumb mistake that led directly to Detroit points. You can ignore this play if you want.
The result was instead of the Lions being stopped, they got a FG at the end of the half.
Potential Point Swing: 3
Play 3
This is the second drive killing penalty by Herndon. Before looking at this picture, here is the NFL rule for the Crack Back / Peel Back Block:
The intent of the rule was to prevent players coming at guys from the outside to take out a defender’s knee. Here is the play with pre-snap and Herndon’s penalty highlighted.
First, I don’t think that affected Mattison’s run to the right for a 1st down. However more importantly, I don’t think that’s a penalty. According to the spirit of the rule, Herndon was not coming from the outside; at the snap, the defender is actually wider than Herndon. But by the letter of the law: did he approach the opponent from behind or from the side? I don’t think so.
Result was that instead of a 1st down in Detroit territory, the Vikings ended up punting from their own 33.
Potential Point Swing: 0-7
Play 4
Cousins Interception (I had to highlight the ball red to see it). This took, at minimum, a FG off the board for the Vikings. The ball is about to bounce off #17 KJ Osborn’s helmet and be intercepted.
On this play I asked:
-Was this derpy Cousins missing a defender? No
-Was the receiver open? Yes
-Was the pass accurate? Yes
-Was there a defender who could have broken up the pass? No
-Did Osborn have a chance to get his head around? Yes (he did, just too slow)
My conclusion is this play was well called, well executed and beat the Detroit defense, except for the WR turning his head. This is more likely a 1st down inside the 15 than an int.
Potential Point Swing: 3-7
Play 5
Joseph’s missed FG. Nothing more to it.
Potential Point Swing: 3
Play 6
Mattison’s fumble that gave Detroit the ball with 2 min left. This is an uncommon mistake for an RB on any other team.
Potential Point Swing: 7
How to beat the Lions
Those plays represented the Vikings swing the game between 10 & 24 points towards the Lions. Add in the 7 gifted on Mattison’s fumble and the swing increased up to a potential 31.
The Vikings won’t get all these breaks, but if they avoid even a few self-controlled minor errors they have the team to win by a comfortable margin. Even given the depletion of the Vikings D line.
There are lots of ways to beat the Lions
- Hold them to their 30th ranked scoring output of 15.8 points
- Score at a league average rate against the 27th ranked scoring defense: 26.3
- Watch as they commit pointless penalties
- Roll an 8 sided dice; Goff throws the ball in the cardinal direction indicated.
- Kick a soul crushing field goal
- Fumble less than twice in overtime (lol, Steelers)
Since the ways to beat the Lions are multitude, I didn’t have much research to do. So instead I looked back at the first game. I was looking for plays that had bad breaks for the Vikings. My feeling was they should have beaten the Lions more handily than they did in the 1st match up, and I wanted to see what was left on the field. Here is what I found:
Play 1
The two teams had traded long opening drives for FGs. Then Goff was sacked and fumbled. The Vikings were moving the ball on the subsequent drive. In the image below, Thielen had just caught a WR screen and turned up field.
In this image, Herndon (#89 just left / below Thielen) is about to commit a holding penalty. Herndon is in a great position to make the block, and the hold occurs after Thielen runs parallel to Herndon. The hold occurs as the defender tries to change directions and his feet are going out from under him.
I also took a closer snap of the penalty. It looks to me like the hold was caused as much by the defender slipping as he tries to come around the corner as it was Herndon taking him down. You can decide for yourself, but it looks to me like the defender is falling and Herndon's arms are still out for a block and he hasn't actually held him yet.
My take is that this hold was unnecessary and the defender had little chance to make it around Herndon to Thielen even if Herndon did nothing and just stood in the way. Additionally, the slip by the defender made the hold look worse than it really was. The result of the play would have set the Vikings up 1st & Goal at the 3, a likely TD. Instead, this put them in 1st & 20 at the 34 and resulted in a FG.
Potential Point Swing: 4
Play 2
Lions in their 2 minute drive at the end of the first half. Cephus makes a break on 3rd & 8. Patrick Peterson takes a bad angle on Cephus. If Peterson lines him up and brings him down as he catches the ball, this is probably 4th down.
[pic 2)I wasn’t sure if I included this one because this is arguably just a good play by Cephus – and I was looking more for bad breaks by the Vikings. However, Peterson has been a very sure tackler and I think if given this play over, Peterson makes the play. I included it because it was a dumb mistake that led directly to Detroit points. You can ignore this play if you want.
The result was instead of the Lions being stopped, they got a FG at the end of the half.
Potential Point Swing: 3
Play 3
This is the second drive killing penalty by Herndon. Before looking at this picture, here is the NFL rule for the Crack Back / Peel Back Block:
An offensive player cannot initiate contact on the side and below the waist against an opponent if:
1. the blocker is moving toward his own end line; and
2. he approaches the opponent from behind or from the side.
Note: If the near shoulder of the blocker contacts the front of his opponent’s body, the “peel back” block is legal.
1. the blocker is moving toward his own end line; and
2. he approaches the opponent from behind or from the side.
Note: If the near shoulder of the blocker contacts the front of his opponent’s body, the “peel back” block is legal.
First, I don’t think that affected Mattison’s run to the right for a 1st down. However more importantly, I don’t think that’s a penalty. According to the spirit of the rule, Herndon was not coming from the outside; at the snap, the defender is actually wider than Herndon. But by the letter of the law: did he approach the opponent from behind or from the side? I don’t think so.
Result was that instead of a 1st down in Detroit territory, the Vikings ended up punting from their own 33.
Potential Point Swing: 0-7
Play 4
Cousins Interception (I had to highlight the ball red to see it). This took, at minimum, a FG off the board for the Vikings. The ball is about to bounce off #17 KJ Osborn’s helmet and be intercepted.
On this play I asked:
-Was this derpy Cousins missing a defender? No
-Was the receiver open? Yes
-Was the pass accurate? Yes
-Was there a defender who could have broken up the pass? No
-Did Osborn have a chance to get his head around? Yes (he did, just too slow)
My conclusion is this play was well called, well executed and beat the Detroit defense, except for the WR turning his head. This is more likely a 1st down inside the 15 than an int.
Potential Point Swing: 3-7
Play 5
Joseph’s missed FG. Nothing more to it.
Potential Point Swing: 3
Play 6
Mattison’s fumble that gave Detroit the ball with 2 min left. This is an uncommon mistake for an RB on any other team.
Potential Point Swing: 7
How to beat the Lions
Those plays represented the Vikings swing the game between 10 & 24 points towards the Lions. Add in the 7 gifted on Mattison’s fumble and the swing increased up to a potential 31.
The Vikings won’t get all these breaks, but if they avoid even a few self-controlled minor errors they have the team to win by a comfortable margin. Even given the depletion of the Vikings D line.
... and neither is this Chris guy.