Post by Uncle on Nov 18, 2021 21:28:54 GMT -6
Two weeks left in the regular season before we get to the Conference Championships...and with little movement in the Top teams last weekend, I think we'll see some of the top teams fall a bit after this one.
Games with CFP Implications:
Saturday, 11/20
#7 Michigan St @ #4 Ohio State - Noon ET
One of the "big two" games this weekend with huge CFP implications and part of the BIG10 "gauntlet". Michigan St has a bad pass defense and Ohio St has 3 NFL-level WR's, 2 of which will be playin' on Sundays in 2022 and may be drafted in Round 1. If Michigan St can't control the game on the ground like Oregon did earlier this season, I think this could get away from the Spartans.
#21 Arkansas @ #2 Alabama - 3:30PM ET
Another ranked road team playing against a Top 4 CFP team. I do think Arkansas has a better chance in this one than Michigan St has at Ohio State, as Alabama is susceptible to teams with a really good ground game, and the Razorbacks certainly have that. I really question their ability to hang with 'Bama's offense though. Like the Spartans, Arkansas has to control the clock on offense and keep the ball away from the Crimson Tide's potent offense.
SMU @ #5 Cincinnati - 3:30PM ET
Potentially Cincinnati's last test of the season as SMU was ranked for a good portion of the season, although it's possible they face a ranked Houston team in the Conference Championship. They were lookin' for "style" points in previous weeks, but this time, they probably just need to win and hope the teams around them lose (and someone will between Michigan St and Ohio St). It's entirely possible they get into the Top 4 on Tuesday as Oregon very well may lose @ Utah.
#3 Oregon @ #23 Utah - 7:30PM ET
Like I mentioned in the CFP thread, it's entirely possible that the Ducks have to beat Utah twice to get into the CFP - this weekend and in the PAC12 Championship. This weekend's game will be the tougher test because it'll be at Utah, who is comin' into this game on a roll. The Ducks had a huge road win at Ohio St earlier this season, but you could argue this game has more on the line. I like a bunch of the Ducks players for the 2022 Draft, but I'm wondering if it might be time to bid "farewell" to the PAC12 in the CFP, similar to how we waived "goodbye" to the BIG XII last weekend.
Games Involving 2022 Draft QB Prospects
Friday, 11/19
Air Force @ Nevada - 9:00PM ET
Nevada QB Carson Strong has had a strong follow-up to his 2020 breakout season and has solidified his status as a solid QB prospect. He's a pocket QB with a big arm and has shown grit and toughness the last few weeks as he's been playing injured. Air Force has a solid record and this should be a high scoring game so Strong should see plenty of action playing in front of the home crowd.
Saturday, 11/20
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky - Noon ET
You wouldn't know it, but Western Kentucky QB Bailey Zappe is the current college QB passing leader. Zappe is someone that's on my radar for the 2022 Draft and I will definitely follow his last few weeks of the 2021 season and Western Kentucky's bowl game with great interest, as well as the Draft season. One thing that really intrigues me about Zappe is that he played at the FCS level and 2021 is his 1st year at the FBS level and he's dominated. And it's just not dominating Conference USA teams - he's put up big #'s against Michigan St, Army & Indiana - all decent teams. Some people will point to the fact that Zappe plays in a QB-friendly Air Raid offensive system and while that's true, he's putting up 70% accuracy numbers on completions that go 9.7 yds on-average, which is 5th best in all of college, more avg yds per completion than Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Sam Howell and Matt Corral. He's also accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl in January. Zappe is a guy to keep an eye on.
Florida St @ Boston College - Noon ET
The guy to watch here is Boston College QB Phil Jurkovec. Originally at Notre Dame for 2018/2019 (playing behind Ian Book), he transferred out in 2020 to start at Boston College where he broke out somewhat. His biggest asset is his physicality: 6'5", 226 lbs - he's not easy to bring down. He does have a big arm, although his downfield accuracy isn't as sharp as Carson Strong or Bailey Zappe and needs to improve. His 2021 season was off to a bad start when he suffered a hand/wrist injury during Wk 2 and needed to have surgery - many thought his season was done and he's return in 2022....but Jurkovec battled back and started the last 2 weeks, and was arguably the best QB in college during Wk 11 - accounting for 5 TD's in Boston College's win over Georgia Tech. The Golden Eagles have home games to end the 2021 season against FSU and #10 Wake Forest so Jurkovec will have 2 remaining games and a bowl game to put together some really good tape for the NFL scouts. This is another "under-the-radar" prospect, like Zappe, to keep an eye on.
Virginia @ #18 Pittsburgh - 3:30PM ET
Pitt QB Kenny Pickett is the QB who has shot up draft boards the most this season. He was generally considered a late Day 3 pick entering the season but he's currently flirting with Day 1 if he keeps playing well down the stretch. I watched him for the first time last week vs Sam Howell and North Carolina and liked some of what I saw, although I questioned his decision-making is trying to force downfield throws that weren't there instead of taking the checkdowns to keep the chains moving. It kept NC in the game and ultimately Pickett was forced to win it in OT in a driving rain. I'd like to see some better decisions out of Pickett the last couple weeks of the season, but he's worth checking out.
Games with CFP Implications:
Saturday, 11/20
#7 Michigan St @ #4 Ohio State - Noon ET
One of the "big two" games this weekend with huge CFP implications and part of the BIG10 "gauntlet". Michigan St has a bad pass defense and Ohio St has 3 NFL-level WR's, 2 of which will be playin' on Sundays in 2022 and may be drafted in Round 1. If Michigan St can't control the game on the ground like Oregon did earlier this season, I think this could get away from the Spartans.
#21 Arkansas @ #2 Alabama - 3:30PM ET
Another ranked road team playing against a Top 4 CFP team. I do think Arkansas has a better chance in this one than Michigan St has at Ohio State, as Alabama is susceptible to teams with a really good ground game, and the Razorbacks certainly have that. I really question their ability to hang with 'Bama's offense though. Like the Spartans, Arkansas has to control the clock on offense and keep the ball away from the Crimson Tide's potent offense.
SMU @ #5 Cincinnati - 3:30PM ET
Potentially Cincinnati's last test of the season as SMU was ranked for a good portion of the season, although it's possible they face a ranked Houston team in the Conference Championship. They were lookin' for "style" points in previous weeks, but this time, they probably just need to win and hope the teams around them lose (and someone will between Michigan St and Ohio St). It's entirely possible they get into the Top 4 on Tuesday as Oregon very well may lose @ Utah.
#3 Oregon @ #23 Utah - 7:30PM ET
Like I mentioned in the CFP thread, it's entirely possible that the Ducks have to beat Utah twice to get into the CFP - this weekend and in the PAC12 Championship. This weekend's game will be the tougher test because it'll be at Utah, who is comin' into this game on a roll. The Ducks had a huge road win at Ohio St earlier this season, but you could argue this game has more on the line. I like a bunch of the Ducks players for the 2022 Draft, but I'm wondering if it might be time to bid "farewell" to the PAC12 in the CFP, similar to how we waived "goodbye" to the BIG XII last weekend.
Games Involving 2022 Draft QB Prospects
Friday, 11/19
Air Force @ Nevada - 9:00PM ET
Nevada QB Carson Strong has had a strong follow-up to his 2020 breakout season and has solidified his status as a solid QB prospect. He's a pocket QB with a big arm and has shown grit and toughness the last few weeks as he's been playing injured. Air Force has a solid record and this should be a high scoring game so Strong should see plenty of action playing in front of the home crowd.
Saturday, 11/20
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky - Noon ET
You wouldn't know it, but Western Kentucky QB Bailey Zappe is the current college QB passing leader. Zappe is someone that's on my radar for the 2022 Draft and I will definitely follow his last few weeks of the 2021 season and Western Kentucky's bowl game with great interest, as well as the Draft season. One thing that really intrigues me about Zappe is that he played at the FCS level and 2021 is his 1st year at the FBS level and he's dominated. And it's just not dominating Conference USA teams - he's put up big #'s against Michigan St, Army & Indiana - all decent teams. Some people will point to the fact that Zappe plays in a QB-friendly Air Raid offensive system and while that's true, he's putting up 70% accuracy numbers on completions that go 9.7 yds on-average, which is 5th best in all of college, more avg yds per completion than Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Sam Howell and Matt Corral. He's also accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl in January. Zappe is a guy to keep an eye on.
Florida St @ Boston College - Noon ET
The guy to watch here is Boston College QB Phil Jurkovec. Originally at Notre Dame for 2018/2019 (playing behind Ian Book), he transferred out in 2020 to start at Boston College where he broke out somewhat. His biggest asset is his physicality: 6'5", 226 lbs - he's not easy to bring down. He does have a big arm, although his downfield accuracy isn't as sharp as Carson Strong or Bailey Zappe and needs to improve. His 2021 season was off to a bad start when he suffered a hand/wrist injury during Wk 2 and needed to have surgery - many thought his season was done and he's return in 2022....but Jurkovec battled back and started the last 2 weeks, and was arguably the best QB in college during Wk 11 - accounting for 5 TD's in Boston College's win over Georgia Tech. The Golden Eagles have home games to end the 2021 season against FSU and #10 Wake Forest so Jurkovec will have 2 remaining games and a bowl game to put together some really good tape for the NFL scouts. This is another "under-the-radar" prospect, like Zappe, to keep an eye on.
Virginia @ #18 Pittsburgh - 3:30PM ET
Pitt QB Kenny Pickett is the QB who has shot up draft boards the most this season. He was generally considered a late Day 3 pick entering the season but he's currently flirting with Day 1 if he keeps playing well down the stretch. I watched him for the first time last week vs Sam Howell and North Carolina and liked some of what I saw, although I questioned his decision-making is trying to force downfield throws that weren't there instead of taking the checkdowns to keep the chains moving. It kept NC in the game and ultimately Pickett was forced to win it in OT in a driving rain. I'd like to see some better decisions out of Pickett the last couple weeks of the season, but he's worth checking out.
... and neither is this Chris guy.