The Zimmer Dumpster Fire Defense in Crunch Time
Nov 6, 2021 19:23:39 GMT -6
Funkytown, Oracle Bone Diviner, and 5 more like this
Post by Reignman on Nov 6, 2021 19:23:39 GMT -6
So how reliable is the "Zimmer Hellfire defense" when it comes to closing games or giving the offense a chance in crunch time? I looked at every late game defensive drive since 2018 to find out, and these are the ones where I thought the game was on the line or a stop was crucial. FYI games could have more than one crucial drive. What the offense did or didn't do at the time wasn't important for this exercise. Maybe I'll look at that next, but I'm sure that's not good either. This is all about the opportunities Zimmer's precious defense has had when it's mattered most. You know, the main reason we hired him.
All the juicy data:
So that's 39 crucial drives in 26 games the past 3½ seasons (57 games overall), and the Zimmer defense only won about 16 of those drives according to the data. 4 other drives they lost (won?) but the opposing team blew it at the end, and I find it difficult to give him credit for those, but if you apologists want to give him credit for technically winning 20 of 39 drives, good for you and your low expectations, it's still bad xD.
At least 6 of those drives were epic meltdowns. Throw in the 4 where the opponent blew it, and it's 10 meltdowns in 57 games.
Overall we only ended up winning 12 of these 26 games (12-13-1), so we found yet another category where Mediocre Mike lives up to his name. To be fair, the defense came up with a crucial stop in some of those losses and let the offense take a crack at failing for once.
The defense lost 14/26 (53.8%) drives where it began with a lead. To put that into perspective the Vikings only allow scores on about 36% of all their drives since 2018, so for whatever reason, we're extra worse in crunch time. Could it be that bend and break defense that everyone loves so much?
The lone bright spot would be the 3rd down defense, which has only given up 10/46 (21.7%). The league is converting 40.5% of 3rd downs this year, so that's phenomenal. But succeeding on 3rd down only means the opponent gets to kill us on 4th down, and kill us they have lol. We've given up 12/16 (75.0%) 4th downs in crunch time, and 6 straight (the NFL avg is 50%).
Drive Averages:
Oooof, not good.
I might have to dig up the numbers on Les Frazier to further put this futility into perspective, if I haven't already.
All the juicy data:
DRIVE GAME
YEAR OPP SITUATION TIME REMAIN SCRUB DRIVE SUMMARY 3RD 4TH RESULT WON/LOST WON/LOST
2018 vs SAF lead 24-16 7:09 to go Jimmy G 3 plays -5 yards (1:23) 0/1 0/0 punt won
2018 vs SAF lead 24-16 1:49 to go Jimmy G 2 plays 0 yards (0:14) 0/0 0/0 INT won won
2018 at GRB tied 29-29 7:32 OT Aaron Rodgers 5 plays 14 yards (3:44) 0/1 0/0 punt won tie
2018 at LOR down 31-38 3:46 to go Jared Goof 3 plays 9 yards (1:26) 0/1 0/0 punt won lost
2018 at CHI down 14-22 4:51 to go Mitch Trubisky 8 plays 30 yards (2:03) 1/2 0/0 FG lost lost
2019 at GRB down 16-21 3:14 to go Aaron Rodgers 7 plays 32 yards (3:08) 0/1 0/0 ran out the clock lost lost
2019 at KAN lead 26-23 6:35 to go Matt Moore 8 plays 38 yards (4:05) 1/2 0/0 54yd FG lost
2019 at KAN tied 26-26 1:47 to go Matt Moore 5 plays 19 yards (1:47) 1/1 0/0 44yd GW FG lost lost
2019 at DAL lead 28-24 4:34 to go Dak Prescott 11 plays 80 yards (3:54) 0/1 0/1 downs won won
2019 vs DEN lead 27-23 6:01 to go Brandon Allen 19 plays 71 yards (6:01) 1/5 3/3 GW TD pass denied won? won
2019 vs CHI lead 19-18 4:53 to go Mitch Trubisky 15 plays 71 yards (4:43) 0/1 1/1 22yd GW FG OMFG lost
2019 at NOS lead 20-17 1:55 to go Drew Brees 7 plays 44 yards (1:53) 0/0 0/0 49yd GT FG lost won
2020 vs TEN lead 30-25 6:31 to go Ryan Tannehill 10 plays 39 yards (3:46) 1/2 0/0 54yd FG lost
2020 vs TEN lead 30-28 3:42 to go Ryan Tannehill 9 plays 44 yards (1:58) 0/1 0/0 55yd FG lost lost
2020 at HOU lead 31-23 2:53 to go DeShaun Watson 10 plays 60 yards (1:41) 1/2 0/1 GT TD overturned won? won
2020 at SEA lead 26-21 7:08 to go Russell Wilson 4 plays 8 yards (1:23) 0/0 0/0 INT won
2020 at SEA lead 26-21 1:57 to go Russell Wilson 13 plays 94 yards (1:42) 0/2 2/2 GW TD OMFG lost
2020 at GRB lead 28-22 0:47 to go Aaron Rodgers 5 plays 31 yards (0:47) 0/0 0/0 strip sack won won
2020 at CHI lead 19-13 10:06 to go Nick Foles 3 plays 5 yards (1:31) 0/1 0/0 punt won
2020 at CHI lead 19-13 5:01 to go Nick Foles 5 plays 11 yards (2:57) 0/1 0/1 downs won
2020 at CHI lead 19-13 0:44 to go Tyler Bray 6 plays 18 yards (0:41) 0/1 0/1 downs won won
2020 vs DAL lead 28-24 4:00 to go Andy Dalton 11 plays 66 yards (2:23) 1/2 1/1 GW TD OMFG lost
2020 vs CAR lead 28-27 0:47 to go Special Ted 5 plays 51 yards (0:45) 0/0 0/0 54yd GW FG miss won? won
2020 vs JAX lead 24-16 3:50 to go Mike Glennon 10 plays 80 yards (2:42) 1/1 0/0 tying TD/2pt OMFG
2020 vs JAX tied 24-24 8:06 OT Mike Glennon 3 plays 2 yards (0:53) 0/1 0/0 INT won won
2020 vs CHI down 27-30 1:54 to go Mitch Trubisky 4 plays 5 yards (0:58) 0/1 0/0 FG ?? lost
2020 at DET lead 37-29 10:32 to go Matty Stafford 14 plays 85 yards (6:06) 1/2 1/1 TD/failed 2pt won? won
2021 at CIN down 21-24 4:52 to go Joe Burrow 5 plays 28 yards (3:04) 0/1 0/0 punt won
2021 at CIN tied 24-24 10:00 OT Joe Burrow 5 plays 11 yards (3:28) 0/1 0/0 punt won
2021 at CIN tied 24-24 5:24 OT Joe Burrow 3 plays 4 yards (1:44) 0/1 0/0 punt won
2021 at CIN tied 24-24 1:48 OT Joe Burrow 7 plays 46 yards (1:48) 0/1 1/1 GW FG lost lost
2021 at ARZ lead 33-31 8:51 to go Kyler Murray 10 plays 60 yards (4:26) 0/2 1/1 go ahead FG lost lost
2021 vs CLE down 7-14 6:08 to go Baker Mayfield 5 plays 32 yards (2:23) 0/1 0/0 punt won
2021 vs CLE down 7-14 1:21 to go Baker Mayfield 3 plays 5 yards (0:20) 0/1 0/0 punt won lost
2021 vs DET lead 16-6 3:17 to go Jared Goof 6 plays 39 yards (0:47) 0/1 0/0 FG lost
2021 vs DET lead 16-9 1:56 to go Jared Goof 3 plays 20 yards (1:19) 0/0 0/0 go ahead TD/2pt lost won
2021 at CAR lead 28-17 7:00 to go Sam Darnold 7 plays 55 yards (2:19) 0/1 0/0 FG lost
2021 at CAR lead 28-20 2:09 to go Sam Darnold 11 plays 96 yards (1:27) 0/2 2/2 tying TD/2pt OMFG won
2021 vs DAL lead 16-13 2:51 to go Cooper MF Rush 8 plays 75 yards (2:00) 1/1 0/0 GW TD FML lost
So that's 39 crucial drives in 26 games the past 3½ seasons (57 games overall), and the Zimmer defense only won about 16 of those drives according to the data. 4 other drives they lost (won?) but the opposing team blew it at the end, and I find it difficult to give him credit for those, but if you apologists want to give him credit for technically winning 20 of 39 drives, good for you and your low expectations, it's still bad xD.
At least 6 of those drives were epic meltdowns. Throw in the 4 where the opponent blew it, and it's 10 meltdowns in 57 games.
Overall we only ended up winning 12 of these 26 games (12-13-1), so we found yet another category where Mediocre Mike lives up to his name. To be fair, the defense came up with a crucial stop in some of those losses and let the offense take a crack at failing for once.
The defense lost 14/26 (53.8%) drives where it began with a lead. To put that into perspective the Vikings only allow scores on about 36% of all their drives since 2018, so for whatever reason, we're extra worse in crunch time. Could it be that bend and break defense that everyone loves so much?
The lone bright spot would be the 3rd down defense, which has only given up 10/46 (21.7%). The league is converting 40.5% of 3rd downs this year, so that's phenomenal. But succeeding on 3rd down only means the opponent gets to kill us on 4th down, and kill us they have lol. We've given up 12/16 (75.0%) 4th downs in crunch time, and 6 straight (the NFL avg is 50%).
Drive Averages:
PLAYS YDS TOP PTS
NFL avg 5.93 31.92 2:45 2.06
Vikings avg 6.08 31.88 2:45 1.98
crunch time drives 7.13 37.77 2:20 2.21
crunch time with lead 8.27 47.54 1:37 2.85
Oooof, not good.
I might have to dig up the numbers on Les Frazier to further put this futility into perspective, if I haven't already.
... and neither is this Chris guy.