Is Our Oline Really Giving the QB More Time to Throw?
Sept 30, 2021 11:51:55 GMT -6
Funkytown, Minniman, and 3 more like this
Post by whoskmoon on Sept 30, 2021 11:51:55 GMT -6
You read it everywhere these days: "The Oline is finally giving Cousins time to throw", "Cousins isn't pressured immediately", or "The Oline finally is doing their job and look what happens". Is that really happening though? Is the Oline giving the QB more time this year than previous years, or is something else occurring?
I have posted this before, but Cousins TTT (Time to throw) currently sits at 31 longest among 35 qualifying QBs. That is up from 10th overall in 2020 and certainly implies that the Oline isn't giving Cousins more time, he is just getting rid of the ball quicker.
Question answered, right?
Well, it isn't as simple as that. Aaron Rodgers' time to throw was 19th in 2020, significantly faster than Cousins, and you would have to be nuts to claim Rodgers' #1 rated pass blocking line gave him less time than Cousins line. Rodgers took less time to throw, but that didn't necessarily he had less time to throw, and THAT number is a bit trickier to figure out.
To figure out how much time the QB has to throw versus how long they choose to throw you would need the time to pressure, a number that I do not believe exists anywhere. We do however have the next best thing: PFF’s how long the QB took to throw when pressured.
For a mobile QB this stat doesn't really tell us a lot. When Russel Wilson is pressured, he escapes the pocket, runs around for another 3 seconds before throwing the ball. For a non-mobile one though, this number is as close to how long a QB had to throw as you can get. Tom Brady gets pressured, and 9 times out of 10 he is taking a sack or getting rid of the ball immediately. Correction, about 151 out of 155 times he throws the ball or is sacked. Cousins is a little more mobile than Brady, but for the most part, when our QB gets pressured, he throws the ball immediately or is sacked.
Looking at Cousins TTT when pressured in 2020, he had in general 3.17 seconds before getting pressured.
2021 that number FELL to 2.73, the fastest in the NFL. That is a 14% drop in time to throw and does not jive with the narrative around the Oline at all this year. According to that number, Cousins actually has less time to throw this year than last. This is not a number that is being impacted by a single game in this relatively young season either. Or rather, it is being impacted, but it is actually much higher because of week 1 where the TTT when pressured was 2.84. Week 2 and week 3 were both around 2.6. That actually goes along a little with what Zimmer said at halftime during the Bengals game, but I will avoid going into that since despite me writing almost exclusively about a QB stat, this isn't meant to be about the QB as much as the pass blocking of the Oline.
We can also look at the opposite situation as well, where the QB threw without being pressured and how long they had in a clean pocket per pass attempt. In 2020, Cousins TTT in a clean pocket was 2.52, good for 10th highest among QBs. 2021 that number has fallen to 2.26 and 25th longest so far this season. That decrease isn't as dramatic as TTT when pressured, but it is significant and tells us the quicker release when pressured isn't necessarily only because the line is giving the QB less time.
Clearly the answer to whether the Oline is actually giving the QB more time to throw is emphatically no. The QB in fact does not have more time to throw, he is just throwing it much quicker. I have to give props to Kubiak for recognizing the Vikings could replicate what the Saints have done for years to make their Oline look better than it is at pass blocking, and beat teams with great route running receivers, a strong run game, and quick short to intermediate throws versus long ones.
This is a major change in passing philosophy likely brought about by the coaching staff having little faith in the Oline and while it worked against the worst defense in the NFL this past Sunday, can it work against secondaries that don’t leave WRs wide open on every play?
I have posted this before, but Cousins TTT (Time to throw) currently sits at 31 longest among 35 qualifying QBs. That is up from 10th overall in 2020 and certainly implies that the Oline isn't giving Cousins more time, he is just getting rid of the ball quicker.
Question answered, right?
Well, it isn't as simple as that. Aaron Rodgers' time to throw was 19th in 2020, significantly faster than Cousins, and you would have to be nuts to claim Rodgers' #1 rated pass blocking line gave him less time than Cousins line. Rodgers took less time to throw, but that didn't necessarily he had less time to throw, and THAT number is a bit trickier to figure out.
To figure out how much time the QB has to throw versus how long they choose to throw you would need the time to pressure, a number that I do not believe exists anywhere. We do however have the next best thing: PFF’s how long the QB took to throw when pressured.
For a mobile QB this stat doesn't really tell us a lot. When Russel Wilson is pressured, he escapes the pocket, runs around for another 3 seconds before throwing the ball. For a non-mobile one though, this number is as close to how long a QB had to throw as you can get. Tom Brady gets pressured, and 9 times out of 10 he is taking a sack or getting rid of the ball immediately. Correction, about 151 out of 155 times he throws the ball or is sacked. Cousins is a little more mobile than Brady, but for the most part, when our QB gets pressured, he throws the ball immediately or is sacked.
Looking at Cousins TTT when pressured in 2020, he had in general 3.17 seconds before getting pressured.
2021 that number FELL to 2.73, the fastest in the NFL. That is a 14% drop in time to throw and does not jive with the narrative around the Oline at all this year. According to that number, Cousins actually has less time to throw this year than last. This is not a number that is being impacted by a single game in this relatively young season either. Or rather, it is being impacted, but it is actually much higher because of week 1 where the TTT when pressured was 2.84. Week 2 and week 3 were both around 2.6. That actually goes along a little with what Zimmer said at halftime during the Bengals game, but I will avoid going into that since despite me writing almost exclusively about a QB stat, this isn't meant to be about the QB as much as the pass blocking of the Oline.
We can also look at the opposite situation as well, where the QB threw without being pressured and how long they had in a clean pocket per pass attempt. In 2020, Cousins TTT in a clean pocket was 2.52, good for 10th highest among QBs. 2021 that number has fallen to 2.26 and 25th longest so far this season. That decrease isn't as dramatic as TTT when pressured, but it is significant and tells us the quicker release when pressured isn't necessarily only because the line is giving the QB less time.
Clearly the answer to whether the Oline is actually giving the QB more time to throw is emphatically no. The QB in fact does not have more time to throw, he is just throwing it much quicker. I have to give props to Kubiak for recognizing the Vikings could replicate what the Saints have done for years to make their Oline look better than it is at pass blocking, and beat teams with great route running receivers, a strong run game, and quick short to intermediate throws versus long ones.
This is a major change in passing philosophy likely brought about by the coaching staff having little faith in the Oline and while it worked against the worst defense in the NFL this past Sunday, can it work against secondaries that don’t leave WRs wide open on every play?
... and neither is this Chris guy.