Post by Purple Pain on Sept 3, 2021 10:27:30 GMT -6
Graff: Forget last year; now, the Vikings offense is more of a worry than the defense
theathletic.com/2800901/2021/09/02/graff-forget-last-year-now-the-vikings-offense-is-more-of-a-worry-than-the-defense/
As the opener to a new season nears, I’m left with a concern about the team I didn’t expect less than two weeks from Week 1: The defense might be a lot better than the offense. Or, simply, the Vikings’ offense is more worrisome than their defense.
Perhaps that sounds ludicrous after watching Justin Jefferson dance his way into the end zone last season, toppling even Randy Moss’ rookie records, while Dalvin Cook solidified himself as one of the best running backs on the planet. Pair a top-tier back and two great wide receivers with Kirk Cousins and a good scheme, and it should be a unit destined for success.
But after watching every practice this summer, I can’t help but feel more concerned about the offense than the defense.
Let’s start on the optimistic side. Zimmer revamped his defense via free agency in a way that fits what he wants to do. Minnesota signed six players who are expected to start and return Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks and Danielle Hunter from injury. It’s a completely different group than the one the Saints ran through. And it’s a group that I think allows Zimmer to do what he does best.
For most of the league, success defensively on third down fluctuates quite a bit. Defenses don’t usually sustain success as long as offenses do, and units that are great one year often aren’t the next. But Zimmer’s defenses have been the exception to that rule. Since Zimmer took over in Minnesota in 2014, the Vikings have the No. 1 third-down defense, allowing conversions only 35.8 percent of the time over the last seven seasons. They’ve had the league’s top-ranked third-down defense in two of those years. Even when the talent pool ran dry a year ago, Zimmer still schemed up enough plays to finish ninth in the league in that category.
Now, Zimmer has rebuilt the defense in a way that should help the Vikings take advantage. He added two massive run stuffers up the middle in Dalvin Tomlinson and Michael Pierce. He has Eric Kendricks patrolling gaps behind them. Zimmer’s plan is to stop the run and get opponents to third down, where he bets his schemes will top yours. Historically, he’s been right.
That’s the main reason I trust this defense. Another is the massive influx of talent. Hunter has dominated all summer. Kendricks could have an All-Pro season behind Tomlinson and Pierce with a simple role of, as Adam Zimmer likes to say, “See ball, get ball.” Barr should be healthy early in the season. And while I’m not convinced that Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland will give the Vikings a top-10 secondary, they’re a heck of a lot better than the corners the Vikings used last season. Consider this: Cameron Dantzler was the team’s best cornerback last year, a pleasant surprise as a third-round rookie. This year, he’s fifth on the team’s cornerback depth chart.
In short, Zimmer with this level of talent should be able to produce at least a top-10 defense — maybe a top-5 one. Of that, I’m confident.
But here’s the pessimistic part. The Vikings’ plan to return to the playoffs banks on getting the same level of production from the offense, if not more. That probably requires the best-case scenario hitting for the Vikings.
What’s more likely, in my opinion, is an offensive regression. The Vikings got worse on the offensive line and worse at tight end — especially with the loss of Irv Smith Jr. for much (if not all) of the season — while returning essentially the same group at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. Plus, they have a new offensive coordinator as Klint Kubiak tries to fill the massive shoes left behind by his Super Bowl-winning father, Gary.
The Vikings allocated more resources to their defense this year in part because that’s where they were worse a year ago, but also because the Vikings believe that Cousins, Cook, Jefferson and Adam Thielen are good enough to return the Vikings to their success of last season. But they reached that level with remarkable health, a legendary play caller and a better offensive line. It seems like a big ask to trust that your four top players won’t get hurt, your offensive line featuring a swing tackle at the most important spot will improve, and a new play caller will be as good as the one who helped invent the scheme other teams have adopted.
Rick Spielman has a legit case to make that the Vikings could be a playoff team, and he’s hitched the franchise’s hopes to that plan. The Vikings aren’t in a rebuild. They want success now. But to reach that goal, it seems a lot has to go right for them.
The defense has to drastically improve. That seems reasonable. Zimmer is one of the best defensive coaches out there, and they’ve got one of the league’s better starting lineups.
The other aspect that has to come to fruition to succeed in the way they’ve envisioned is an offense that repeats as a top-10 performer and maybe even improves. That’s not impossible. Cook and Jefferson are insanely good and should be a joy for Vikings fans to watch.
But when you need everything to break just right to simply match the success of last season, that’s a bad sign.
Perhaps that sounds ludicrous after watching Justin Jefferson dance his way into the end zone last season, toppling even Randy Moss’ rookie records, while Dalvin Cook solidified himself as one of the best running backs on the planet. Pair a top-tier back and two great wide receivers with Kirk Cousins and a good scheme, and it should be a unit destined for success.
But after watching every practice this summer, I can’t help but feel more concerned about the offense than the defense.
Let’s start on the optimistic side. Zimmer revamped his defense via free agency in a way that fits what he wants to do. Minnesota signed six players who are expected to start and return Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks and Danielle Hunter from injury. It’s a completely different group than the one the Saints ran through. And it’s a group that I think allows Zimmer to do what he does best.
For most of the league, success defensively on third down fluctuates quite a bit. Defenses don’t usually sustain success as long as offenses do, and units that are great one year often aren’t the next. But Zimmer’s defenses have been the exception to that rule. Since Zimmer took over in Minnesota in 2014, the Vikings have the No. 1 third-down defense, allowing conversions only 35.8 percent of the time over the last seven seasons. They’ve had the league’s top-ranked third-down defense in two of those years. Even when the talent pool ran dry a year ago, Zimmer still schemed up enough plays to finish ninth in the league in that category.
Now, Zimmer has rebuilt the defense in a way that should help the Vikings take advantage. He added two massive run stuffers up the middle in Dalvin Tomlinson and Michael Pierce. He has Eric Kendricks patrolling gaps behind them. Zimmer’s plan is to stop the run and get opponents to third down, where he bets his schemes will top yours. Historically, he’s been right.
That’s the main reason I trust this defense. Another is the massive influx of talent. Hunter has dominated all summer. Kendricks could have an All-Pro season behind Tomlinson and Pierce with a simple role of, as Adam Zimmer likes to say, “See ball, get ball.” Barr should be healthy early in the season. And while I’m not convinced that Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland will give the Vikings a top-10 secondary, they’re a heck of a lot better than the corners the Vikings used last season. Consider this: Cameron Dantzler was the team’s best cornerback last year, a pleasant surprise as a third-round rookie. This year, he’s fifth on the team’s cornerback depth chart.
In short, Zimmer with this level of talent should be able to produce at least a top-10 defense — maybe a top-5 one. Of that, I’m confident.
But here’s the pessimistic part. The Vikings’ plan to return to the playoffs banks on getting the same level of production from the offense, if not more. That probably requires the best-case scenario hitting for the Vikings.
What’s more likely, in my opinion, is an offensive regression. The Vikings got worse on the offensive line and worse at tight end — especially with the loss of Irv Smith Jr. for much (if not all) of the season — while returning essentially the same group at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. Plus, they have a new offensive coordinator as Klint Kubiak tries to fill the massive shoes left behind by his Super Bowl-winning father, Gary.
The Vikings allocated more resources to their defense this year in part because that’s where they were worse a year ago, but also because the Vikings believe that Cousins, Cook, Jefferson and Adam Thielen are good enough to return the Vikings to their success of last season. But they reached that level with remarkable health, a legendary play caller and a better offensive line. It seems like a big ask to trust that your four top players won’t get hurt, your offensive line featuring a swing tackle at the most important spot will improve, and a new play caller will be as good as the one who helped invent the scheme other teams have adopted.
Rick Spielman has a legit case to make that the Vikings could be a playoff team, and he’s hitched the franchise’s hopes to that plan. The Vikings aren’t in a rebuild. They want success now. But to reach that goal, it seems a lot has to go right for them.
The defense has to drastically improve. That seems reasonable. Zimmer is one of the best defensive coaches out there, and they’ve got one of the league’s better starting lineups.
The other aspect that has to come to fruition to succeed in the way they’ve envisioned is an offense that repeats as a top-10 performer and maybe even improves. That’s not impossible. Cook and Jefferson are insanely good and should be a joy for Vikings fans to watch.
But when you need everything to break just right to simply match the success of last season, that’s a bad sign.
theathletic.com/2800901/2021/09/02/graff-forget-last-year-now-the-vikings-offense-is-more-of-a-worry-than-the-defense/