Post by Purple Pain on Sept 3, 2021 9:51:28 GMT -6
Purple Insider: Comparing Kirk Cousins's Supporting Casts
Link:
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/comparing-kirk-cousinss-supporting
Replies on that piece:
2018 Vikings (Fifth ranked supporting cast)
Receiving weapons (PFF Rank: No. 8): Slightly worse than ‘21 Vikings
As we get into Cousins’s Vikings years, it gets easier to compare apples to apples. Still, comparing the Diggs-Thielen pairing to the Jefferson-Thielen pairing is tricky. What we know about both, though, is that elite performances from the top duo does not always translate to wins. Both the 2018 and 2020 Vikings got around 2,300 yards from their first and second receivers, yet failed to make the playoffs. So we’ll focus more on the depth comparison.
The 2018 Vikings were woefully shallow, which allowed teams to double Diggs and Thielen and shut down the offense. Laquon Treadwell got an absurd amount of time as the WR3 despite his ineffectiveness, and beyond Kyle Rudolph, the Vikings had virtually no tight end production. Rudolph, however, was solid with 634 yards and four touchdowns.
Because the 2021 Vikings have the potential to have a much better WR3 in Dede Westbrook or K.J. Osborn, along with the potential of two productive tight ends in Chris Herndon and Tyler Conklin, they get a mild advantage.
Pass blocking (PFF Rank: No. 27): Worse
Going into 2018, there was actually some optimism about the offensive line, believe it or not. Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers had been passable, if not good, in 2017. Pat Elflein was young and ascending. Brian O’Neill was set to emerge. And Tom Compton was… Cousins’s friend? At any rate, losing Tony Sparano so suddenly hurt that group, not to mention Nick Easton got hurt in training camp. Mike Remmers also didn’t fit at guard, Compton was well below average, and Elflein didn’t seem fully recovered from offseason surgeries. It was a mess.
Fast forward to today, there’s certainly not the same level of optimism as 2018, which at least gives the group a chance to exceed expectations. Coming off a year where it ranked 29th in pass blocking, though, the Vikings offensive line basically replaced a trusted veteran at left tackle with a lifetime swing tackle, and they swapped the league’s worst guard for a third-year player who’s never played the position. Amazingly, the latter is probably an upgrade, but the general approach isn’t inspiring. Depth also seems like an issue.
There’s no pedigree on this line besides right tackle Brian O’Neill, so if the pass blocking winds up in the high 20s again, nobody would be surprised.
Running back support (PFF Rank: No. 20): Worse
Dalvin Cook was in and out of the lineup in 2018 with a hamstring, leaving Latavius Murray to fend for himself as John DeFilippo hesitated to run the ball. Cook finished the year with just over 600 yards in 11 games played.
Obviously, a healthy Cook beats an injured one every time.
Defense (PFF Rank: No. 7): Better
Just one year removed from a historically great No. 1 defense, the 2018 Vikings dipped to a still-respectable third against the pass, 15th against the run and ninth in points allowed. Flip the pass and run rankings, and you might be looking at the ceiling of the 2021 Vikings defense.
Even if you make the argument that Minnesota’s many acquisitions in 2021 can live up to the 2018 starting lineup, that team of three years ago still had better depth: Jayron Kearse, Eric Wilson, Stephen Weatherly, Tom Johnson, George Iloka, even Holton Hill. They also had years of continuity, which the 2021 club is trying to mimic in the course of one training camp.
Better or worse than 2021 Vikings: Slightly Worse
The pass-catching, offensive line and defense are fairly comparable, but the rushing attack in 2021 should be far superior to 2018. For that reason, we award a win to the current Vikings.
2019 Vikings (Second best supporting cast)
Receiving weapons (PFF No. 9 ranked receiving team): Even with 2021 Vikings
While Adam Thielen missed a good chunk of the season, the Vikings got over 1,000 yards from Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr, combined for 74 receptions. Dalvin Cook was also highly effective out of the backfield as a receiver, averaging 9.8 yards per catch. There isn’t the same layer of Rudolph this year but if Jefferson/Thielen are healthy, they’ll produce more than Diggs/Thielen in 2019.
Pass blocking (ranked 27th in pass blocking): Worse
The Vikings started rookie center Garrett Bradbury and moved Pat Elflein to guard, which resulted in a lot of growing pains and interior pass rush. The other three linemen were largely solid but Bradbury and Elflein were responsible for 12 of Cousins's sacks allowed.
Running back support (6th in rushing yards): Same
Dalvin Cook did get banged up at times but he was still one of the elite running backs in the NFL, gaining 1,135 yards at 4.5 yards per carry. Alex Mattison and Mike Boone added another 735 yards on the ground.
Defense (5th in points): Worse
The 2019 defense wasn't perfect but it was still darn good. They caused the fourth most turnovers, ranked seventh in net yards per pass attempt and sacked the quarterback 48 times.
Better or worse than 2021 Vikings: Slightly better
This year's defense would have to have a tremendous season to finish in the top five and it's very hard to see them ranking at the top of the NFL in sacks. They should be able to equal the rushing attack and better the pass blocking of 2019 but Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. had a stronger combined 2019 than we can expect from the present tight end situation.
2020 Vikings (Sixth overall supporting cast)
Receiving weapons (PFF Rank: No. 1): Better than ‘21 Vikings
Jefferson and Thielen remain, but the two tight ends do not. Without Kyle Rudolph’s red zone prowess and Irv Smith Jr.’s all-around game, the current group of receiving weapons isn’t likely to stack up, even if they generate more from the WR3 spot.
Hey, even with subpar depth at receiver last year, the Vikings were still PFF’s top receiving team, and they had a rookie receiver that may be taking the next step in 2021.
Pass blocking (PFF Rank: No. 29): Can it get worse?
It’s just hard to imagine things devolving the way they did last year. Dakota Dozier was a turnstile, while right guard du jour was just as bad for about half the season, and Garrett Bradbury ranked last among full-time players in pass-blocking grade. Unsurprisingly, Kirk Cousins posted a 7 percent sack rate, his highest as a Viking.
For the pessimists out there, there’s always a chance Rashod Hill is a massive downgrade from Riley Reiff. So it could, in theory, get worse. I suppose Hill is basically a microcosm of the whole offensive line: We just don’t know. It’s a mystery.
When you start young or inexperienced players, there are usually growing pains that don’t occur with veteran offensive lines. This feels like a growing-pains group.
But because the Vikings shuffled the deck, they opened up the door for some different outcomes. Maybe some better ones.
Running back support (PFF Rank: No. 2): Same
If we’d gotten to see Kene Nwangwu more in the preseason, perhaps the 2021 team would’ve gotten a leg up, but with Nwangwu on the I.R., we’ll settle for a draw. The talented Dalvin Cook should get an equally massive workload with the quiet but effective Alexander Mattison hoping to scratch out a few carries once in a while.
Cook has still yet to play a fully healthy season, so there’s always the tantalizing possibility he delivers his best season yet. That could turn things in the ‘21 Vikings’ favor.
Defense (PFF Rank: No. 27): Worse
Anybody really need an explanation here?
Dalvin Tomlinson > Jaleel Johnson
Patrick Peterson > Holton Hill
Bashaud Breeland > Jeff Gladney
Michael Pierce > Shamar Stephen
Danielle Hunter > Ifeadi Odenigbo
Better or worse than 2021 Vikings: Worse
The Vikings decided to more or less stand pat on offense this offseason and rebuild their defense, but a downgrade at left tackle and now the loss of Smith flat-out means the offense got worse on paper.
Minnesota, now a bit shorthanded, will need to aspire for last year’s offensive performance and hope its defense becomes the driving force behind a resurgence. That can happen if the stars align, but it doesn’t seem like the players closest to Cousins on offense have improved all that much.
What does it tell us about 2021?
Kirk Cousins’s supporting cast this year has flaws and questions but we can see from the breakdowns above that he’s only had one nearly flawless supporting cast throughout the course of his career (as goes for most QBs). The 2021 club should give Cousins consistently open top targets, an exceptional running game and a defense that isn’t a disaster. Even without Irv, it’s still good enough to have a strong offensive performance this season. At least that’s how it appears before Week 1, anyway…
Ranks:
2016 Washington
2019 Vikings
2015 Washington
2021 Vikings
2018 Vikings
2020 Vikings
2017 Washington
Receiving weapons (PFF Rank: No. 8): Slightly worse than ‘21 Vikings
As we get into Cousins’s Vikings years, it gets easier to compare apples to apples. Still, comparing the Diggs-Thielen pairing to the Jefferson-Thielen pairing is tricky. What we know about both, though, is that elite performances from the top duo does not always translate to wins. Both the 2018 and 2020 Vikings got around 2,300 yards from their first and second receivers, yet failed to make the playoffs. So we’ll focus more on the depth comparison.
The 2018 Vikings were woefully shallow, which allowed teams to double Diggs and Thielen and shut down the offense. Laquon Treadwell got an absurd amount of time as the WR3 despite his ineffectiveness, and beyond Kyle Rudolph, the Vikings had virtually no tight end production. Rudolph, however, was solid with 634 yards and four touchdowns.
Because the 2021 Vikings have the potential to have a much better WR3 in Dede Westbrook or K.J. Osborn, along with the potential of two productive tight ends in Chris Herndon and Tyler Conklin, they get a mild advantage.
Pass blocking (PFF Rank: No. 27): Worse
Going into 2018, there was actually some optimism about the offensive line, believe it or not. Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers had been passable, if not good, in 2017. Pat Elflein was young and ascending. Brian O’Neill was set to emerge. And Tom Compton was… Cousins’s friend? At any rate, losing Tony Sparano so suddenly hurt that group, not to mention Nick Easton got hurt in training camp. Mike Remmers also didn’t fit at guard, Compton was well below average, and Elflein didn’t seem fully recovered from offseason surgeries. It was a mess.
Fast forward to today, there’s certainly not the same level of optimism as 2018, which at least gives the group a chance to exceed expectations. Coming off a year where it ranked 29th in pass blocking, though, the Vikings offensive line basically replaced a trusted veteran at left tackle with a lifetime swing tackle, and they swapped the league’s worst guard for a third-year player who’s never played the position. Amazingly, the latter is probably an upgrade, but the general approach isn’t inspiring. Depth also seems like an issue.
There’s no pedigree on this line besides right tackle Brian O’Neill, so if the pass blocking winds up in the high 20s again, nobody would be surprised.
Running back support (PFF Rank: No. 20): Worse
Dalvin Cook was in and out of the lineup in 2018 with a hamstring, leaving Latavius Murray to fend for himself as John DeFilippo hesitated to run the ball. Cook finished the year with just over 600 yards in 11 games played.
Obviously, a healthy Cook beats an injured one every time.
Defense (PFF Rank: No. 7): Better
Just one year removed from a historically great No. 1 defense, the 2018 Vikings dipped to a still-respectable third against the pass, 15th against the run and ninth in points allowed. Flip the pass and run rankings, and you might be looking at the ceiling of the 2021 Vikings defense.
Even if you make the argument that Minnesota’s many acquisitions in 2021 can live up to the 2018 starting lineup, that team of three years ago still had better depth: Jayron Kearse, Eric Wilson, Stephen Weatherly, Tom Johnson, George Iloka, even Holton Hill. They also had years of continuity, which the 2021 club is trying to mimic in the course of one training camp.
Better or worse than 2021 Vikings: Slightly Worse
The pass-catching, offensive line and defense are fairly comparable, but the rushing attack in 2021 should be far superior to 2018. For that reason, we award a win to the current Vikings.
2019 Vikings (Second best supporting cast)
Receiving weapons (PFF No. 9 ranked receiving team): Even with 2021 Vikings
While Adam Thielen missed a good chunk of the season, the Vikings got over 1,000 yards from Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr, combined for 74 receptions. Dalvin Cook was also highly effective out of the backfield as a receiver, averaging 9.8 yards per catch. There isn’t the same layer of Rudolph this year but if Jefferson/Thielen are healthy, they’ll produce more than Diggs/Thielen in 2019.
Pass blocking (ranked 27th in pass blocking): Worse
The Vikings started rookie center Garrett Bradbury and moved Pat Elflein to guard, which resulted in a lot of growing pains and interior pass rush. The other three linemen were largely solid but Bradbury and Elflein were responsible for 12 of Cousins's sacks allowed.
Running back support (6th in rushing yards): Same
Dalvin Cook did get banged up at times but he was still one of the elite running backs in the NFL, gaining 1,135 yards at 4.5 yards per carry. Alex Mattison and Mike Boone added another 735 yards on the ground.
Defense (5th in points): Worse
The 2019 defense wasn't perfect but it was still darn good. They caused the fourth most turnovers, ranked seventh in net yards per pass attempt and sacked the quarterback 48 times.
Better or worse than 2021 Vikings: Slightly better
This year's defense would have to have a tremendous season to finish in the top five and it's very hard to see them ranking at the top of the NFL in sacks. They should be able to equal the rushing attack and better the pass blocking of 2019 but Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. had a stronger combined 2019 than we can expect from the present tight end situation.
2020 Vikings (Sixth overall supporting cast)
Receiving weapons (PFF Rank: No. 1): Better than ‘21 Vikings
Jefferson and Thielen remain, but the two tight ends do not. Without Kyle Rudolph’s red zone prowess and Irv Smith Jr.’s all-around game, the current group of receiving weapons isn’t likely to stack up, even if they generate more from the WR3 spot.
Hey, even with subpar depth at receiver last year, the Vikings were still PFF’s top receiving team, and they had a rookie receiver that may be taking the next step in 2021.
Pass blocking (PFF Rank: No. 29): Can it get worse?
It’s just hard to imagine things devolving the way they did last year. Dakota Dozier was a turnstile, while right guard du jour was just as bad for about half the season, and Garrett Bradbury ranked last among full-time players in pass-blocking grade. Unsurprisingly, Kirk Cousins posted a 7 percent sack rate, his highest as a Viking.
For the pessimists out there, there’s always a chance Rashod Hill is a massive downgrade from Riley Reiff. So it could, in theory, get worse. I suppose Hill is basically a microcosm of the whole offensive line: We just don’t know. It’s a mystery.
When you start young or inexperienced players, there are usually growing pains that don’t occur with veteran offensive lines. This feels like a growing-pains group.
But because the Vikings shuffled the deck, they opened up the door for some different outcomes. Maybe some better ones.
Running back support (PFF Rank: No. 2): Same
If we’d gotten to see Kene Nwangwu more in the preseason, perhaps the 2021 team would’ve gotten a leg up, but with Nwangwu on the I.R., we’ll settle for a draw. The talented Dalvin Cook should get an equally massive workload with the quiet but effective Alexander Mattison hoping to scratch out a few carries once in a while.
Cook has still yet to play a fully healthy season, so there’s always the tantalizing possibility he delivers his best season yet. That could turn things in the ‘21 Vikings’ favor.
Defense (PFF Rank: No. 27): Worse
Anybody really need an explanation here?
Dalvin Tomlinson > Jaleel Johnson
Patrick Peterson > Holton Hill
Bashaud Breeland > Jeff Gladney
Michael Pierce > Shamar Stephen
Danielle Hunter > Ifeadi Odenigbo
Better or worse than 2021 Vikings: Worse
The Vikings decided to more or less stand pat on offense this offseason and rebuild their defense, but a downgrade at left tackle and now the loss of Smith flat-out means the offense got worse on paper.
Minnesota, now a bit shorthanded, will need to aspire for last year’s offensive performance and hope its defense becomes the driving force behind a resurgence. That can happen if the stars align, but it doesn’t seem like the players closest to Cousins on offense have improved all that much.
What does it tell us about 2021?
Kirk Cousins’s supporting cast this year has flaws and questions but we can see from the breakdowns above that he’s only had one nearly flawless supporting cast throughout the course of his career (as goes for most QBs). The 2021 club should give Cousins consistently open top targets, an exceptional running game and a defense that isn’t a disaster. Even without Irv, it’s still good enough to have a strong offensive performance this season. At least that’s how it appears before Week 1, anyway…
Ranks:
2016 Washington
2019 Vikings
2015 Washington
2021 Vikings
2018 Vikings
2020 Vikings
2017 Washington
Link:
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/comparing-kirk-cousinss-supporting
Replies on that piece:
On one hand, I look at last year and how totally atrocious our OL and D (and special teams) were and I can’t help to think we’re not 3 wins better this year.
On the other hand, this isn’t inspiring:
2016 Washington 8-7-1
2019 Vikings 10-6
2015 Washington 9-7
2021 Vikings ?-?
2018 Vikings 8-7-1
2020 Vikings 7-9
2017 Washington 7-9
Really depends on OL and D IMO. Big big wildcards.
On the other hand, this isn’t inspiring:
2016 Washington 8-7-1
2019 Vikings 10-6
2015 Washington 9-7
2021 Vikings ?-?
2018 Vikings 8-7-1
2020 Vikings 7-9
2017 Washington 7-9
Really depends on OL and D IMO. Big big wildcards.
This is a fun one, and I agree with the rankings based on the 2021 team having a "median" outcome. In the off chance that things start shockingly going well for the Vikings at some point this year, the defense and pass blocking in particular could gel to move up the rankings, such as the defense having a theoretical ceiling at or above the 7th best defense from 2018 (the 2021 defense will be #1 in the league if you trust Sheil Kapadia's wildly optimistic prediction) and the OL having a ceiling that is at or slightly above 15th overall from 2015 if the young guys click (I mean this unit was listed as one of the most improved team position units in the NFL by PFF this offseason, link below).
Only thing that I would add is special teams. I think that some feel that special teams adds very little to winning, but I think that when you consider field position special teams can have a pretty substantial impact on team success. I mean, when you evaluate average starting field position, each of the top 8 teams from 2020 were in the playoffs, and none of the bottom 7 teams were in the playoffs (though many of the most explosive and efficient offenses were well below average at starting field position, such as the Titans at 20th, Cleveland at 22nd, and the Chiefs at 24th).
That said, here are the DVOA special team rankings from Kirk's 6 teams:
2015: 6th
2016: 13th
2017: 22nd
2018: 19th
2019: 14th
2020: 31st
2021: #1 (in my heart)
Only thing that I would add is special teams. I think that some feel that special teams adds very little to winning, but I think that when you consider field position special teams can have a pretty substantial impact on team success. I mean, when you evaluate average starting field position, each of the top 8 teams from 2020 were in the playoffs, and none of the bottom 7 teams were in the playoffs (though many of the most explosive and efficient offenses were well below average at starting field position, such as the Titans at 20th, Cleveland at 22nd, and the Chiefs at 24th).
That said, here are the DVOA special team rankings from Kirk's 6 teams:
2015: 6th
2016: 13th
2017: 22nd
2018: 19th
2019: 14th
2020: 31st
2021: #1 (in my heart)
... and neither is this Chris guy.