MN Vikings Situational Stats

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whoskmoon
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MN Vikings Situational Stats Jul 25, 2021 21:03:16 GMT -6 Funkytown, Purple Pain, and 3 more like this

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Post by whoskmoon on Jul 25, 2021 21:03:16 GMT -6

Situational stats can be a dangerous weapon for both the homerific fan who believes the Vikings can do no wrong and the fan who loves to hate on his favorite team. With the right parameters you can almost always find a situational stat that will prove your point and certain homers and certain negative Nancy's have made a living off of finding stats that seem to do just that.

For instance, I recently read a tweet that Kirk Cousins had the 6th most TDs when his team was within a score over the past 5 years. Pretty good right? Top 6 when the game is close is huge! ...until you realize that Kirk is one of only 6 QBs who has 78+ starts since 2016. Essentially he was 6 of 6, meaning that stat was incredibly misleading.

That is the dark side of situational stats. Situational stats aren't always misleading and there are ways to avoid falling into the trap of narrowing your parameters until they fit your argument. How to do that though? Well, the answer is in what I wrote previously. If narrowing your parameters down leads to misleading numbers, you start with broad parameters. If you have an issue with trying to find stats that fit YOUR argument, don't make it YOUR argument. Find stats that match the argument of someone else.

Keeping all that in mind, I am going to use this thread to post some broad (wins/losses) situational stats, as well as stats that match other people's arguments. To start, let's take a look at some NFL offenses and defense in wins and losses.

All Offenses in wins since 2018:

Tm	G	Plays	ToGo	Yds	1st%	TO%	TD	Avg TD	FG Made	Int	Fmb	Avg TO	Sk	Avg Sk	Pass	Pass Avg	Rush	Avg Rush	Pass/Run Ratio	FG	Avg FG	FG %	Punt	Avg Punt	Avg Score
KAN	38	2932	7.8	5.4	28.80%	1.20%	133	3.50	66.00	17.00	17.00	0.89	54.00	1.42	1453.00	38.24	984.00	25.89	0.60	72.00	1.89	0.92	119.00	3.13	29.71052632
NOR	38	2995	7.5	5	28.10%	1.00%	138	3.63	69.00	15.00	16.00	0.82	53.00	1.39	1312.00	34.53	1176.00	30.95	0.53	78.00	2.05	0.88	126.00	3.32	30.86842105
BAL	35	2763	7.6	5	27.40%	1.10%	116	3.31	70.00	16.00	15.00	0.89	58.00	1.66	984.00	28.11	1334.00	38.11	0.42	79.00	2.26	0.89	109.00	3.11	29.2
SEA	33	2561	7.7	4.8	25.50%	1.10%	114	3.45	47.00	12.00	15.00	0.82	92.00	2.79	1046.00	31.70	1037.00	31.42	0.50	55.00	1.67	0.85	148.00	4.48	28.45454545
GNB	32	2465	7.7	5.1	26.10%	0.70%	115	3.59	45.00	7.00	10.00	0.53	60.00	1.88	1158.00	36.19	872.00	27.25	0.57	49.00	1.53	0.92	124.00	3.88	29.375
LAR	32	2576	7.7	5.2	27.60%	1.20%	105	3.28	55.00	18.00	13.00	0.97	48.00	1.50	1143.00	35.72	1005.00	31.41	0.53	71.00	2.22	0.77	117.00	3.66	28.125
NWE	30	2448	7.7	4.7	26.00%	1.10%	93	3.10	52.00	17.00	11.00	0.93	42.00	1.40	1065.00	35.50	981.00	32.70	0.52	61.00	2.03	0.85	132.00	4.40	26.9
BUF	29	2239	7.8	4.9	27.30%	1.20%	96	3.31	45.00	14.00	13.00	0.93	52.00	1.79	951.00	32.79	917.00	31.62	0.51	54.00	1.86	0.83	107.00	3.69	27.82758621
TEN	29	2203	7.6	5.1	27.00%	0.90%	106	3.66	39.00	8.00	11.00	0.66	57.00	1.97	848.00	29.24	951.00	32.79	0.47	50.00	1.72	0.78	113.00	3.90	29.62068966
PIT	29	2238	7.7	4.7	25.10%	1.40%	83	2.86	46.00	20.00	11.00	1.07	35.00	1.21	1096.00	37.79	761.00	26.24	0.59	50.00	1.72	0.92	122.00	4.21	24.79310345
CHI	28	2116	7.7	4.5	25.10%	1.50%	75	2.68	49.00	22.00	9.00	1.11	53.00	1.89	956.00	34.14	801.00	28.61	0.54	58.00	2.07	0.84	115.00	4.11	24
IND	28	2163	7.7	5	27.40%	1.10%	90	3.21	47.00	15.00	9.00	0.86	32.00	1.14	928.00	33.14	873.00	31.18	0.52	55.00	1.96	0.85	92.00	3.29	27.53571429
HOU	25	1916	7.8	5	25.30%	1.30%	69	2.76	53.00	14.00	11.00	1.00	67.00	2.68	839.00	33.56	739.00	29.56	0.53	62.00	2.48	0.85	97.00	3.88	25.68
MIN	25	1952	7.8	5.1	26.00%	1.20%	83	3.32	42.00	7.00	17.00	0.96	46.00	1.84	791.00	31.64	815.00	32.60	0.49	51.00	2.04	0.82	98.00	3.92	28.28
CLE	24	1834	7.6	5.2	26.60%	1.00%	77	3.21	36.00	12.00	6.00	0.75	37.00	1.54	758.00	31.58	750.00	31.25	0.50	41.00	1.71	0.88	90.00	3.75	26.95833333
DAL	24	1917	7.6	5.3	27.10%	1.10%	85	3.54	54.00	9.00	12.00	0.88	50.00	2.08	837.00	34.88	745.00	31.04	0.53	60.00	2.50	0.90	76.00	3.17	31.54166667
LAC	24	1770	7.8	5.3	27.80%	0.80%	77	3.21	41.00	10.00	4.00	0.58	45.00	1.88	809.00	33.71	655.00	27.29	0.55	51.00	2.13	0.80	81.00	3.38	27.58333333
SFO	23	1757	8	5.2	26.10%	1.50%	76	3.30	44.00	17.00	10.00	1.17	51.00	2.22	716.00	31.13	732.00	31.83	0.49	56.00	2.43	0.79	80.00	3.48	28.86956522
TAM	23	1878	7.8	5.3	27.30%	1.40%	92	4.00	39.00	15.00	11.00	1.13	38.00	1.65	907.00	39.43	641.00	27.87	0.59	45.00	1.96	0.87	80.00	3.48	33.08695652
MIA	22	1646	7.7	4.6	23.80%	1.30%	64	2.91	37.00	11.00	11.00	1.00	50.00	2.27	731.00	33.23	596.00	27.09	0.55	42.00	1.91	0.88	111.00	5.05	25.40909091
PHI	22	1794	7.7	4.7	25.50%	1.20%	66	3.00	31.00	11.00	10.00	0.95	45.00	2.05	825.00	37.50	675.00	30.68	0.55	39.00	1.77	0.79	90.00	4.09	25.22727273
OAK	19	1515	7.4	4.8	25.40%	1.20%	61	3.21	32.00	7.00	11.00	0.95	34.00	1.79	650.00	34.21	595.00	31.32	0.52	37.00	1.95	0.86	76.00	4.00	27.52631579
ATL	18	1453	8.1	5.2	27.00%	1.20%	57	3.17	46.00	12.00	5.00	0.94	32.00	1.78	709.00	39.39	498.00	27.67	0.59	49.00	2.72	0.94	62.00	3.44	29.83333333
DEN	18	1302	7.7	4.8	22.10%	1.80%	48	2.67	35.00	16.00	8.00	1.33	23.00	1.28	539.00	29.94	509.00	28.28	0.51	38.00	2.11	0.92	81.00	4.50	24.5
CAR	17	1314	7.8	4.8	25.30%	1.20%	56	3.29	29.00	7.00	9.00	0.94	30.00	1.76	558.00	32.82	522.00	30.71	0.52	35.00	2.06	0.83	70.00	4.12	28.17647059
WAS	17	1302	8.1	4.1	21.40%	0.80%	36	2.12	38.00	7.00	4.00	0.65	39.00	2.29	532.00	31.29	536.00	31.53	0.50	45.00	2.65	0.84	89.00	5.24	21.52941176
ARI	16	1302	7.8	5.1	26.40%	1.10%	52	3.25	32.00	8.00	6.00	0.88	23.00	1.44	546.00	34.13	527.00	32.94	0.51	37.00	2.31	0.86	67.00	4.19	28.75
NYG	15	1150	7.8	4.9	24.30%	1.50%	45	3.00	23.00	10.00	7.00	1.13	33.00	2.20	479.00	31.93	457.00	30.47	0.51	26.00	1.73	0.88	71.00	4.73	25.6
DET	14	1048	8.2	4.8	25.80%	0.90%	40	2.86	28.00	6.00	3.00	0.64	21.00	1.50	464.00	33.14	402.00	28.71	0.54	35.00	2.50	0.80	52.00	3.71	26
NYJ	13	994	7.7	4.6	22.50%	1.30%	36	2.77	29.00	8.00	5.00	1.00	21.00	1.62	403.00	31.00	406.00	31.23	0.50	37.00	2.85	0.78	53.00	4.08	26.07692308
CIN	12	959	7.6	4.8	25.20%	0.70%	40	3.33	25.00	6.00	1.00	0.58	15.00	1.25	412.00	34.33	369.00	30.75	0.53	29.00	2.42	0.86	45.00	3.75	29.58333333
JAX	12	927	8.4	4.6	23.60%	1.30%	25	2.08	29.00	4.00	8.00	1.00	30.00	2.50	415.00	34.58	350.00	29.17	0.54	30.00	2.50	0.97	58.00	4.83	21.83333333
Average			7.77	4.925		1.17%		3.14				0.90		1.80		33.77		30.32	0.53		2.12	0.86		3.94	27.45
Difference			0.03	0.18		0.03%		0.18				0.06		0.04		-2.13		2.28	-0.03		-0.08	-0.03		-0.02	0.83
% Difference			0.40%	3.55%		2.95%		5.61%				6.14%		2.13%		-6.30%		7.53%	-6.50%		-3.61%	-4.06%		-0.40%	3.02%

Defenses in wins:

Tm	G	Plays	ToGo	Yds	1st%	TO%	TD	Avg TD	FG	Int	Fmb	Avg TO	Sk	Avg Sk	Pass	Pass Avg	Rush	Avg Rush	Pass/Run Ratio	FG	Avg FG	FG %	Punt	Avg Punt	Avg Score
KAN	38	3014	7.7	4.6	25.50%	2.00%	87	2.29	45	41	19	1.58	101	2.66	1534	40.37	939	24.71	0.62	61	1.61	0.74	146	3.84	19.57894737
NOR	38	2830	7.7	4.3	22.20%	2.30%	85	2.24	39	41	23	1.68	121	3.18	1523	40.08	761	20.03	0.67	51	1.34	0.76	165	4.34	18.73684211
BAL	35	2536	7.9	3.9	20.60%	2.20%	53	1.51	42	30	26	1.60	102	2.91	1330	38.00	697	19.91	0.66	56	1.60	0.75	167	4.77	14.2
SEA	33	2613	7.6	4.7	25.40%	2.40%	72	2.18	52	31	32	1.91	86	2.61	1436	43.52	715	21.67	0.67	71	2.15	0.73	123	3.73	20
GNB	32	2425	7.7	4.5	24.10%	2.30%	63	1.97	50	32	23	1.72	96	3.00	1232	38.50	747	23.34	0.62	58	1.81	0.86	131	4.09	18.46875
LAR	32	2423	8	4.2	22.40%	2.40%	58	1.81	44	35	22	1.78	112	3.50	1264	39.50	690	21.56	0.65	52	1.63	0.85	154	4.81	16.8125
NWE	30	2235	8	4.1	20.90%	3.00%	40	1.33	35	48	20	2.27	73	2.43	1165	38.83	647	21.57	0.64	44	1.47	0.80	151	5.03	12.83333333
BUF	29	2183	7.7	4.1	23.50%	2.60%	55	1.90	28	33	23	1.93	86	2.97	1131	39.00	639	22.03	0.64	42	1.45	0.67	141	4.86	16.17241379
TEN	29	2324	7.9	4.6	25.10%	1.90%	61	2.10	41	25	20	1.55	75	2.59	1231	42.45	685	23.62	0.64	53	1.83	0.77	118	4.07	18.96551724
PIT	29	2163	8.3	4	21.40%	2.70%	52	1.79	34	36	23	2.03	113	3.90	1106	38.14	649	22.38	0.63	41	1.41	0.83	148	5.10	16.06896552
CHI	28	2150	7.9	4.1	21.90%	2.50%	43	1.54	45	38	15	1.89	86	3.07	1159	41.39	610	21.79	0.66	55	1.96	0.82	122	4.36	15.57142857
IND	28	2076	7.8	4.5	24.00%	2.20%	53	1.89	34	29	17	1.64	71	2.54	1076	38.43	615	21.96	0.64	44	1.57	0.77	119	4.25	16.89285714
HOU	25	1978	8	4.6	23.40%	2.20%	54	2.16	31	24	20	1.76	69	2.76	1046	41.84	573	22.92	0.65	40	1.60	0.78	111	4.44	18.84
MIN	25	1902	7.6	4.3	23.00%	2.50%	43	1.72	38	30	17	1.88	81	3.24	1002	40.08	551	22.04	0.65	47	1.88	0.81	101	4.04	16.6
CLE	24	1895	7.7	4.5	25.50%	2.30%	52	2.17	34	27	16	1.79	58	2.42	1039	43.29	535	22.29	0.66	43	1.79	0.79	88	3.67	19.41666667
DAL	24	1849	7.6	4.5	23.50%	2.10%	53	2.21	38	16	23	1.63	60	2.50	953	39.71	546	22.75	0.64	40	1.67	0.95	93	3.88	20.20833333
LAC	24	1811	7.6	4.3	23.40%	1.70%	46	1.92	33	22	10	1.33	63	2.63	892	37.17	584	24.33	0.60	46	1.92	0.72	97	4.04	17.54166667
SFO	23	1725	7.9	3.9	21.20%	2.00%	40	1.74	28	20	15	1.52	64	2.78	847	36.83	551	23.96	0.61	32	1.39	0.88	111	4.83	15.82608696
TAM	23	1837	8.1	4.3	23.40%	2.50%	52	2.26	30	27	19	2.00	79	3.43	1027	44.65	457	19.87	0.69	36	1.57	0.83	101	4.39	19.73913043
MIA	22	1750	7.7	4.5	23.30%	2.50%	43	1.95	34	31	12	1.95	59	2.68	888	40.36	552	25.09	0.62	45	2.05	0.76	97	4.41	18.31818182
PHI	22	1629	8.1	4.3	21.50%	2.00%	40	1.82	34	14	19	1.50	74	3.36	906	41.18	411	18.68	0.69	40	1.82	0.85	111	5.05	17.36363636
LVR	19	1455	7.8	4.7	24.50%	2.10%	50	2.63	24	22	9	1.63	38	2.00	716	37.68	462	24.32	0.61	35	1.84	0.69	80	4.21	22.21052632
ATL	18	1389	8	4.7	24.90%	2.90%	35	1.94	25	26	14	2.22	55	3.06	779	43.28	350	19.44	0.69	28	1.56	0.89	74	4.11	17.77777778
DEN	18	1438	8	4.4	22.10%	2.30%	28	1.56	36	23	10	1.83	65	3.61	772	42.89	414	23.00	0.65	42	2.33	0.86	78	4.33	16.88888889
CAR	17	1316	8.2	4.6	25.20%	3.10%	37	2.18	16	25	16	2.41	59	3.47	727	42.76	357	21.00	0.67	24	1.41	0.67	70	4.12	18.05882353
WAS	17	1316	8.2	3.9	22.00%	2.90%	24	1.41	19	22	16	2.24	73	4.29	728	42.82	355	20.88	0.67	27	1.59	0.70	87	5.12	13.23529412
ARI	16	1327	7.9	4.2	24.80%	1.80%	36	2.25	21	11	13	1.50	55	3.44	691	43.19	398	24.88	0.63	26	1.63	0.81	77	4.81	19.6875
NYG	15	1183	8	4.6	24.20%	2.70%	34	2.27	26	24	8	2.13	47	3.13	615	41.00	351	23.40	0.64	29	1.93	0.90	64	4.27	21.06666667
DET	14	1085	7.6	4.7	26.00%	1.80%	33	2.36	10	9	10	1.36	34	2.43	585	41.79	313	22.36	0.65	21	1.50	0.48	51	3.64	18.64285714
NYJ	13	1056	8.1	4.1	21.20%	2.60%	22	1.69	25	19	9	2.15	35	2.69	568	43.69	287	22.08	0.66	34	2.62	0.74	61	4.69	17.61538462
CIN	12	962	7.7	5	24.70%	2.40%	29	2.42	22	15	8	1.92	39	3.25	525	43.75	259	21.58	0.67	25	2.08	0.88	44	3.67	22.41666667
JAX	12	902	8.5	4	22.00%	2.00%	18	1.50	16	12	6	1.50	41	3.42	482	40.17	253	21.08	0.66	21	1.75	0.76	60	5.00	14.5
Average			7.89	4.365625		2.34%		1.96				1.81		3.00		40.82		22.20	0.65		1.74	0.78		4.37	17.82
Difference			-0.29	-0.07		0.16%		-0.24				0.07		0.24		-0.74		-0.16	0.00		0.14	0.03		-0.33	-1.22
% Difference			-3.68%	-1.50%		6.81%		-12.22%				3.99%		8.06%		-1.82%		-0.74%	-0.38%		7.93%	3.21%		-7.64%	-6.85%

A quick explanation of what the above means. These are all the plays from each winning offense and defense over the past 3 seasons and the results of those plays. The average at the bottom is the average of those teams obviously, and the difference/% difference is the difference between that average and what the Vikings did.

So what does it mean? Nothing at this point. There are teams above who these numbers would mean something. Washington for example was dead last in points scored on offense in wins, and 2nd best in points given up on on defense. They are a team that only wins when their defense plays well and their offense has little to do with their success. The Vikings on the other hand are above average in both categories. 14th on offense in wins, 10th on defense. This implies defense is more important to winning than the offense, but that isn't necessarily so since the offense was good in wins too.

So no, the numbers above don't tell us a lot by themselves for the Vikings. For them to mean something we have to look at how they did in losses.

whoskmoon
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MN Vikings Situational Stats Jul 25, 2021 21:03:35 GMT -6 vikingpwr likes this

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Post by whoskmoon on Jul 25, 2021 21:03:35 GMT -6

Offenses in Losses:

Tm	G	Plays	ToGo	Yds	1st%	TO%	TD	Avg TD	FG	Int	Fmb	Avg TO	Sk	Avg Sk	Pass	Pass Avg	Rush	Avg Rush	Pass/Run Ratio	FG	Avg FG	FG %	Punt	Avg Punt	Avg Score
KAN	10	743	7.7	5.5	26.60%	2.00%	34	3.40	17	7	8	1.50	19	1.90	410	41.00	180	18.00	0.69	21	2.10	0.81	28	2.80	28.9
NOR	10	726	7.5	4.8	25.50%	1.50%	27	2.70	14	6	5	1.10	21	2.10	384	38.40	193	19.30	0.67	16	1.60	0.88	40	4.00	23.1
BAL	13	1045	7.7	4.5	25.50%	2.10%	31	2.38	18	12	10	1.69	34	2.62	508	39.08	362	27.85	0.58	19	1.46	0.95	49	3.77	20.84615385
GNB	15	1153	7.8	4.4	23.20%	1.50%	31	2.07	16	6	11	1.13	46	3.07	644	42.93	290	19.33	0.69	23	1.53	0.70	71	4.73	17.66666667
SEA	15	1220	8	4.7	24.30%	2.00%	37	2.47	21	14	11	1.67	55	3.67	610	40.67	385	25.67	0.61	24	1.60	0.88	68	4.53	21.46666667
LAR	16	1289	7.9	4.5	24.00%	2.70%	32	2.00	25	25	10	2.19	31	1.94	727	45.44	326	20.38	0.69	34	2.13	0.74	67	4.19	18.6875
NWE	18	1342	7.6	4.5	23.40%	1.90%	29	1.61	28	17	8	1.39	44	2.44	655	36.39	446	24.78	0.59	33	1.83	0.85	72	4.00	15.94444444
PIT	18	1354	7.7	4.2	21.10%	2.70%	37	2.06	22	24	12	2.00	31	1.72	783	43.50	314	17.44	0.71	28	1.56	0.79	89	4.94	18.05555556
BUF	19	1465	8.3	3.9	20.60%	3.00%	24	1.26	27	32	12	2.32	56	2.95	763	40.16	426	22.42	0.64	37	1.95	0.73	98	5.16	13.10526316
TEN	19	1381	8.2	4.4	22.70%	1.90%	37	1.95	14	19	7	1.37	71	3.74	650	34.21	465	24.47	0.58	27	1.42	0.52	94	4.95	15.84210526
CHI	20	1595	7.7	4	21.60%	2.20%	37	1.85	27	20	15	1.75	59	2.95	864	43.20	453	22.65	0.66	32	1.60	0.84	97	4.85	17
IND	20	1611	7.7	4.3	24.00%	2.30%	46	2.30	29	21	16	1.85	39	1.95	856	42.80	466	23.30	0.65	41	2.05	0.71	73	3.65	20.45
MIN	22	1637	7.6	4.6	24.30%	2.50%	52	2.36	22	23	18	1.86	59	2.68	854	38.82	468	21.27	0.65	29	1.32	0.76	88	4.00	19.54545455
CLE	23	1758	8	4.4	22.00%	2.70%	49	2.13	27	33	14	2.04	61	2.65	914	39.74	510	22.17	0.64	36	1.57	0.75	100	4.35	18.43478261
HOU	23	1740	7.7	4.8	25.60%	1.70%	56	2.43	30	16	14	1.30	93	4.04	907	39.43	510	22.17	0.64	38	1.65	0.79	90	3.91	20.95652174
DAL	24	1932	7.9	4.4	24.90%	2.10%	38	1.58	39	23	18	1.71	73	3.04	1048	43.67	569	23.71	0.65	57	2.38	0.68	90	3.75	15.95833333
LAC	24	1929	7.9	4.6	24.90%	2.50%	50	2.08	33	32	16	2.00	56	2.33	1029	42.88	575	23.96	0.64	46	1.92	0.72	89	3.71	18.70833333
PHI	25	1973	7.9	4.3	23.30%	2.60%	55	2.20	27	26	25	2.04	92	3.68	1076	43.04	544	21.76	0.66	35	1.40	0.77	110	4.40	18.64
SFO	25	1972	7.9	4.6	24.30%	2.90%	53	2.12	40	33	25	2.32	72	2.88	987	39.48	626	25.04	0.61	44	1.76	0.91	108	4.32	19.64
TAM	25	1973	8	4.9	25.30%	3.50%	62	2.48	36	53	16	2.76	72	2.88	1086	43.44	524	20.96	0.67	48	1.92	0.75	90	3.60	21.68
MIA	26	1968	7.9	4	22.00%	2.40%	42	1.62	40	33	15	1.85	94	3.62	1042	40.08	545	20.96	0.66	49	1.88	0.82	121	4.65	15.92307692
OAK	29	2181	7.4	4.8	24.40%	2.30%	50	1.72	47	21	29	1.72	73	2.52	1089	37.55	681	23.48	0.62	57	1.97	0.82	109	3.76	16.93103448
ATL	30	2398	7.9	4.6	25.90%	1.80%	69	2.30	49	21	23	1.47	100	3.33	1354	45.13	622	20.73	0.69	57	1.90	0.86	110	3.67	21
DEN	30	2381	8	4.1	22.20%	2.00%	50	1.67	42	32	17	1.63	84	2.80	1215	40.50	734	24.47	0.62	56	1.87	0.75	150	5.00	15.86666667
CAR	31	2431	7.8	4.5	25.70%	2.60%	63	2.03	42	46	17	2.03	96	3.10	1312	42.32	684	22.06	0.66	53	1.71	0.79	118	3.81	18.29032258
ARI	31	2254	8.1	3.9	22.00%	2.40%	57	1.84	30	34	20	1.74	100	3.23	1149	37.06	678	21.87	0.63	41	1.32	0.73	150	4.84	15.77419355
WAS	31	2262	8	4.1	22.30%	2.40%	54	1.74	40	37	17	1.74	104	3.35	1201	38.74	634	20.45	0.65	48	1.55	0.83	142	4.58	16.06451613
DET	33	2569	7.7	4.3	23.60%	2.10%	70	2.12	45	34	20	1.64	101	3.06	1340	40.61	742	22.48	0.64	55	1.67	0.82	152	4.61	18.93939394
NYG	33	2478	8.1	4.3	22.60%	2.30%	57	1.73	50	30	27	1.73	106	3.21	1367	41.42	657	19.91	0.68	57	1.73	0.88	139	4.21	16.63636364
CIN	35	2670	7.9	4	22.40%	2.20%	59	1.69	45	34	26	1.71	109	3.11	1409	40.26	763	21.80	0.65	56	1.60	0.80	171	4.89	15.65714286
NYJ	35	2584	8.1	3.6	19.00%	2.30%	45	1.29	42	41	19	1.71	111	3.17	1274	36.40	791	22.60	0.62	55	1.57	0.76	199	5.69	12.6
JAX	36	2763	7.7	4.2	22.00%	2.40%	58	1.61	45	33	32	1.81	108	3.00	1468	40.78	790	21.94	0.65	57	1.58	0.79	169	4.69	15.02777778
Average			7.853125	4.396875	23.48%	2.30%		2.02				1.77		2.90		40.60		22.17	0.65		1.72	0.79		4.31	18.23
Difference			-0.25	0.20		0.20%		0.34				0.09		-0.22		-1.78		-0.90	0.00		-0.40	-0.03		-0.31	1.32
% Difference			-3.22%	4.62%		8.84%		16.74%				5.04%		-7.46%		-4.38%		-4.04%	-0.13%		-23.42%	-3.52%		-7.25%	7.22%

Defenses in Losses

Tm	G	Plays	ToGo	Yds	1st%	TO%	TD	Avg TD	FG Made	Int	Fmb	Avg TO	Sk	Avg Sk	Pass	Pass Avg	Rush	Avg Rush	Pass/Run Ratio	FG Attempt	Avg FG	FG %	Punt	Avg Punt	Avg Score
KAN	10	843	7.4	5.3	28.90%	1.40%	41	4.10	16	6	6	1.20	28	2.80	364	36.40	334	33.40	0.52	18	1.80	0.89	23	2.30	33.5
NOR	10	820	7.7	4.9	26.20%	1.00%	36	3.60	21	2	6	0.80	22	2.20	355	35.50	328	32.80	0.52	23	2.30	0.91	28	2.80	31.5
BAL	13	1062	7.6	5	27.20%	0.80%	42	3.23	20	5	3	0.62	16	1.23	505	38.85	375	28.85	0.57	25	1.92	0.80	51	3.92	27.23076923
GNB	15	1144	8.1	5	26.10%	0.60%	52	3.47	24	2	5	0.47	26	1.73	453	30.20	485	32.33	0.48	30	2.00	0.80	63	4.20	29.06666667
SEA	15	1138	7.6	5.3	27.20%	1.20%	46	3.07	27	11	3	0.93	27	1.80	500	33.33	429	28.60	0.54	32	2.13	0.84	59	3.93	26.86666667
LAR	16	1287	7.5	4.5	24.50%	1.60%	52	3.25	27	10	11	1.31	32	2.00	523	32.69	527	32.94	0.50	33	2.06	0.82	71	4.44	27.8125
NWE	18	1348	7.7	5.2	28.40%	1.30%	56	3.11	29	13	4	0.94	27	1.50	571	31.72	548	30.44	0.51	31	1.72	0.94	63	3.50	26.61111111
PIT	18	1418	8	4.5	24.30%	1.50%	50	2.78	33	9	12	1.17	40	2.22	614	34.11	554	30.78	0.53	39	2.17	0.85	82	4.56	24.94444444
BUF	19	1453	7.7	4.4	24.40%	1.50%	56	2.95	33	12	10	1.16	32	1.68	606	31.89	601	31.63	0.50	37	1.95	0.89	86	4.53	25.84210526
TEN	19	1443	7.7	4.9	26.10%	1.40%	63	3.32	25	15	5	1.05	25	1.32	628	33.05	581	30.58	0.52	28	1.47	0.89	76	4.00	27.15789474
CHI	20	1551	7.8	4.6	23.50%	1.20%	57	2.85	30	9	10	0.95	31	1.55	691	34.55	580	29.00	0.54	36	1.80	0.83	98	4.90	24.45
IND	20	1555	7.6	4.7	26.00%	1.70%	58	2.90	41	16	11	1.35	49	2.45	712	35.60	572	28.60	0.55	44	2.20	0.93	69	3.45	26.45
MIN	22	1744	7.4	4.9	26.70%	1.30%	65	2.95	54	14	9	1.05	36	1.64	717	32.59	739	33.59	0.49	56	2.55	0.96	74	3.36	28.04545455
CLE	23	1838	8	5	26.70%	1.40%	79	3.43	42	12	13	1.09	51	2.22	752	32.70	762	33.13	0.50	54	2.35	0.78	88	3.83	29.52173913
HOU	23	1802	7.6	5.4	28.20%	0.90%	81	3.52	38	6	11	0.74	38	1.65	781	33.96	708	30.78	0.52	45	1.96	0.84	77	3.35	29.60869565
DAL	24	1868	7.8	4.7	25.60%	1.10%	70	2.92	37	10	10	0.83	49	2.04	780	32.50	771	32.13	0.50	49	2.04	0.76	94	3.92	25.04166667
LAC	24	1752	7.6	4.8	24.60%	1.40%	71	2.96	41	14	11	1.04	31	1.29	759	31.63	664	27.67	0.53	50	2.08	0.82	93	3.88	25.83333333
PHI	25	1989	7.8	5	25.10%	1.20%	82	3.28	45	15	9	0.96	54	2.16	903	36.12	735	29.40	0.55	54	2.16	0.83	107	4.28	28.36
SFO	25	1956	7.7	4.4	24.70%	1.00%	80	3.20	45	6	14	0.80	50	2.00	867	34.68	722	28.88	0.55	52	2.08	0.87	115	4.60	27.8
TAM	25	1973	7.9	4.7	25.20%	1.10%	81	3.24	49	9	13	0.88	54	2.16	922	36.88	684	27.36	0.57	57	2.28	0.86	101	4.04	28.56
MIA	26	1981	7.7	5.5	27.80%	1.50%	99	3.81	38	21	8	1.12	35	1.35	806	31.00	827	31.81	0.49	48	1.85	0.79	85	3.27	31.03846154
LVR	29	2175	7.7	5.3	26.70%	0.60%	102	3.52	53	11	3	0.48	28	0.97	937	32.31	859	29.62	0.52	60	2.07	0.88	90	3.10	30.10344828
ATL	30	2330	7.5	5.1	27.80%	0.90%	105	3.50	50	13	7	0.67	39	1.30	1061	35.37	857	28.57	0.55	56	1.87	0.89	102	3.40	29.5
DEN	30	2284	7.9	4.9	24.90%	1.10%	81	2.70	63	14	10	0.80	60	2.00	1006	33.53	875	29.17	0.53	71	2.37	0.89	129	4.30	25.2
CAR	31	2350	7.7	5	26.90%	1.00%	105	3.39	60	9	15	0.77	57	1.84	1048	33.81	880	28.39	0.54	65	2.10	0.92	114	3.68	29.51612903
ARI	31	2435	8	4.9	26.90%	1.10%	93	3.00	54	14	12	0.84	79	2.55	1075	34.68	953	30.74	0.53	65	2.10	0.83	122	3.94	26.22580645
WAS	31	2377	7.7	5	25.80%	1.50%	100	3.23	49	22	13	1.13	65	2.10	1016	32.77	976	31.48	0.51	57	1.84	0.86	105	3.39	27.32258065
DET	33	2573	7.6	5.2	27.50%	0.90%	117	3.55	48	11	11	0.67	56	1.70	1115	33.79	1007	30.52	0.53	57	1.73	0.84	126	3.82	29.18181818
NYG	33	2620	8	4.8	25.70%	1.00%	96	2.91	62	13	14	0.82	58	1.76	1181	35.79	993	30.09	0.54	74	2.24	0.84	131	3.97	26
CIN	35	2732	7.6	5.2	26.70%	1.10%	105	3.00	70	17	13	0.86	40	1.14	1131	32.31	1138	32.51	0.50	80	2.29	0.88	132	3.77	27
NYJ	35	2805	8	4.8	25.00%	1.10%	111	3.17	65	16	16	0.91	70	2.00	1308	37.37	1014	28.97	0.56	74	2.11	0.88	159	4.54	27.77142857
JAX	36	2783	7.7	5.1	26.40%	1.10%	117	3.25	64	21	11	0.89	61	1.69	1173	32.58	1133	31.47	0.51	77	2.14	0.83	138	3.83	28.08333333
Average			7.73	4.9375		1.17%		3.22				0.92		1.81		33.88		30.51	0.53		2.05	0.86		3.84	27.85
Difference			-0.33	-0.04		0.00		-0.27				0.13		-0.18		-1.29		3.08	-0.03		0.49	0.11		-0.47	0.20
% Difference			-4.25%	-0.76%		10.93%		-8.33%				14.23%		-9.77%		-3.81%		10.11%	-6.41%		23.96%	12.42%		-12.34%	0.71%

Ah ha! Now we are getting to the bottom of things, sort of. The defense plays slightly worse than an average defense (19th) in losses over the past 3 seasons, but we also see that the offense is worse than most teams (9th) at turning the ball over. Turnovers tend to lead to short fields and scores which could account for that .7% difference.

One other thing to note offensively, the Vikings pass to run ratio is pretty much the league average in losses. We don't lose because we run too much in games, and we win when we run more than most teams run. Another thing to note is there is virtually no difference between the number of sacks given up on offense in wins, and the number given up in losses.

Part II I will break down individual players on offense in wins and losses. Spoiler alert, the QB matters.

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MN Vikings Situational Stats Jul 25, 2021 21:18:15 GMT -6 suncoastvike, vikingpwr, and 1 more like this

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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2021 21:18:15 GMT -6

Sound like certain people who rave up a QB stats all day and inflate the true story to fit a agenda using that weapon. It's all over twitter. I had to retire my account and just read and laugh.

That is why yes stats matter, but only to a certain extent. Eye test and common sense has to factor in to IMO! Nice work Whosk!

Yes QBs matter, and results are the best weapon for measuring their greatness in a lot of cases.

Last Edit: Jul 25, 2021 22:04:20 GMT -6 by Deleted

suncoastvike Moderator Some say I'm too laid back. Really, I'm just too lazy to argue with them. Posts: 10,643 Likes: 7,202	MN Vikings Situational Stats Jul 26, 2021 8:18:40 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by suncoastvike on Jul 26, 2021 8:18:40 GMT -6 Nice work. W's matter. Even W's are not the whole story. Not all W's are equal. Some are W's other's just w's. The big W's are what I want most. Insert whatever stat needed.
	If being a Viking fan was easy ~ everyone would do it.

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MN Vikings Situational Stats Jul 27, 2021 5:14:50 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2021 5:14:50 GMT -6

Jul 26, 2021 8:18:40 GMT -6 suncoastvike said:

Nice work.
W's matter. Even W's are not the whole story. Not all W's are equal. Some are W's other's just w's. The big W's are what I want most. Insert whatever stat needed.

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MN Vikings Situational Stats Aug 30, 2021 6:49:07 GMT -6 Purple Pain likes this

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Post by whoskmoon on Aug 30, 2021 6:49:07 GMT -6

Part 2: Vikings WRs

For individual players I do not have averages across the league because it would require me to count each players starts in wins and losses. That is not an effort I feel like undertaking, so for these players all I am able to compare against are stats that are already averages like YPA, passer rating and stats like that.

First up we have WRs. Diggs, Thielen and JJ are huge parts of the Vikings offense and you would think that when they struggled to produce, the Vikings would struggle to win. That was the case for Diggs in 2018 and 2019. You took him away and we lost.

2018-2019 Win YPG: 82.4
2018-2019 Loss YPG: 61.5
% Difference: 34%

That 21 ypg is a significant difference and not what we see from Thielen and Jefferson:

2018-2020 Win YPG Thielen: 69.4
2018-2020 Loss YPG Thielen: 59.85
% Difference: 16%

2020 Win YPG JJ: 93.1
2020 Loss YPG JJ: 93.5
% Difference: 0%

So is JJ unstoppable while good teams were able to somewhat shut down Diggs and secure wins? Or is it something else? In my opinion it probably has something to do with garbage time. JJ averaged 22 ypg in situations where the offense was down multiple scores with 6 minutes left in the 4th. Thielen in 2020 averaged 21 YPG. Their total yards in GT were good for 4th and 5th in the NFL.

Diggs in 2018-2019 in that spot only averaged 9 YPG in that spot. That coupled with the fact that most of JJ's losses were blowouts while most of Diggs' were closer games at the end and had fewer opportunities for GT stat padding is a large part of that difference. Plus JJ was a little bit unstoppable.

One thing is clear though. From 2018 to 2019, while Thielen was a bit more consistent than Diggs in both wins and losses, Diggs was the guy who defenses focused on shutting down to win football games and Diggs having a great game was a big part of the team having success. Going forward it will be interesting to see if JJ becomes that key WR with fewer GT opportunities. He will be the focus of every secondary we face this year no doubt, and it will be interesting to revisit this after the upcoming season to see if defenses were able to slow him or if he continued to be great whether the team won or lost.

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MN Vikings Situational Stats Aug 31, 2021 7:31:50 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Aug 31, 2021 7:31:50 GMT -6

Part 2B: QB vs RB
With these two positions I am actually able to compare to the rest of the league since they have meaningful averages kept for them. They are also the most important positions on the offense for the MN Vikings.

(Summary at bottom for the ADD folks)

Cook In Wins
YPG Wins: 94.7

YPA Wins: 4.78

TD/Game Wins: .9

YPA League Average Wins: 4.5

YPG Losses: 75.29

YPA Losses: 4.76

TD/Game: .7

YPA League Average in Losses: 4.0

To put Dalvin's YPG in context, his YPG in losses is as good as Aaron Jones best year's YPG and nearly 10 yards more than Kamara's.

Difference in wins versus losses
%Difference YPG: 21%

%Difference TD/G: 22%

%Difference YPA: 0%

Kirk Cousins Winning

Passer Rating Wins: 117

Int % wins: .94

TD % Wins: 6.7

YPA wins: 8.4

Average Qaulifying Winning QB:

Passer Rating Wins: 104

Int % wins: 1.6

TD % Wins: 5.9

YPA wins: 7.9

Kirk is a better than average QB in wins which is good.

Kirk Cousins Losing

Passer Rating: 89

Int % : 2.7

TD %: 4.8

YPA wins: 6.8

Average Qualifying Losing QB:

Passer Rating Wins: 83

Int % wins: 2.7

TD % Wins: 3.6

YPA wins: 6.8

Kirk throws a few more TDs in GT than the average qualifying QB but the myth that he loses a lot of games because he is unlucky is just that. When Kirk loses he more often than not plays poorly.

Difference in wins versus losses

%Difference W vs L passer rating: 24%

%Difference W vs L YPA: 20%

%Difference TD %: 40%

%Difference Int %: 322%

No volume stats up there for the QB and there is a reason for that. As far as volume stats go, you would be surprised to know that there is not a significant difference between the average losing QB’s yards and TDs versus the average winning QB’s. 253 Yards, 1.9 TDs per game in wins since 2018, 250 yards, 1.9 TDs per game in losses. Pretty crazy considering most of us look at yards and TDs after a game to figure out whether a QB contributed to winning or not. Turns out almost all volume stats are meaningless when it comes to a QB, aside from one: Interceptions. Losing QBs throw over twice as many ints per game (1.1 vs .49). Efficiency also matters. YPA for a winning QB is 7.5 while a losing QB has a YPA of 6.3. Passer rating, a stat based on efficiency and volume stats obviously fluctuates based on wins and losses as well.

Summary

Back to what this means for our QB vs RB. Turns out Cook is just as good in wins as he is in losses. His YPA is almost identical whether the Vikings are winning or losing, and even in his losses his YPG is well above average. That 21% difference in yards and 22% difference in TDs is significant though, and proves that Cook is important to the success of the Vikings. At first blush, Cousins numbers indicate he is more important, but when you really think about it, Cousins struggles in losses adds more import to Cook rushing the football. If he is running well, Cousins needs to throw the ball less, needs to take fewer chances and ends up throwing fewer interceptions.

For Cousins specifically, he is a great QB in wins…against losing teams while Cook is rushing for nearly 100 yards. One cool thing about the Vikings consistently losing to better than .500 teams and consistently winning against below .500 teams is all of the stats above are not only about how the team does in wins and losses, but they are also indicators of how the team does against good and bad teams. So while Cousins is a great QB against bad teams, he plays like a losing QB against teams we would face in the playoffs. At least until garbage time.

These numbers are why Zimmer has emphasized running the football and building a strong defense. We win when we aren't reliant on the pass to keep us in games. We typically lose when we are.

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Oct 8, 2024 15:13:38 GMT -6

NoresemanSam: screen refresh on a desktop browser will sometimes wake up quick quote Oct 9, 2024 14:30:03 GMT -6

Reignman: actually I think quick quote is working all the time, except sometimes it's at the first post way up the screen for some reason, if you scroll up fast enough you'll find it xD Oct 13, 2024 18:48:34 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Pick 6 for Week 7: purplepainforums.com/thread/8064/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 15, 2024 9:51:37 GMT -6

purplepeopleeaters: Go Vikings beat the lions. Fan since Super Bowl IV, Jan, 1970. Oct 18, 2024 20:26:43 GMT -6

Maestro: Quick Quote should be working again ... code helper Chris over at proboards sent us a solution. *thumb_up*

Oct 21, 2024 3:59:10 GMT -6

Reignman: if you asked me, this Maestro guy isn't getting paid enough *whistle*

... and neither is this Chris guy. Oct 21, 2024 4:14:34 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 8: purplepainforums.com/thread/8083/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 22, 2024 9:46:41 GMT -6

ATXVike: whatever spence says is my prediction...that's the most realistic Oct 24, 2024 12:26:25 GMT -6

genolaweb: How about giving Josh Oliver a shot ay left tackle? Oct 26, 2024 9:17:43 GMT -6

NoresemanSam: Maestro is worth twice what he is getting paid. Oct 27, 2024 19:46:26 GMT -6

NoresemanSam: That was a joke. If I have to tell folks it was a joke, it probably wasn't a very good joke... (roflmao)

Oct 27, 2024 23:39:02 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 9: purplepainforums.com/thread/8109/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 29, 2024 9:33:03 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 10: purplepainforums.com/thread/8133/purple-pains-pick-week-10 Nov 5, 2024 11:58:14 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 11: purplepainforums.com/thread/8153/purple-pains-pick-week-11 Nov 12, 2024 8:59:05 GMT -6

vikingsjason1234: Nice post! Nov 14, 2024 15:26:08 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 12: purplepainforums.com/thread/8166/purple-pains-pick-week-12 Nov 19, 2024 10:21:55 GMT -6

MichaelRay: Need to ink Sam ling term he's the guy Nov 24, 2024 17:41:48 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 13: purplepainforums.com/thread/8183/purple-pains-pick-week-13 Nov 26, 2024 12:02:33 GMT -6

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