Post by whoskmoon on Jun 13, 2021 14:40:08 GMT -6
A few weeks ago I posted some numbers in the “What it takes to win a SB with a Non-HOF QB” thread. In it, we see that a dominant pass rush is the most important factor in winning it all if you don’t have an elite QB and that attempting to build the defense up is key for the Vikings win the SB with their current QB. Those numbers don’t really tell the whole story though, since the context of SB winning teams with elite QBs is needed to really know what is important to winning it all. So, to that end, I compiled some numbers and rankings of all SB winning teams since 2006 (the latest year some of my stats are available). I also added the numbers for the 2020 Vikings team, so we can see just how much we need to improve to win it all.
Note: I ranked the QBs on a scale of 1-32 with 1 being Tom Brady and 32 being 2015 Peyton Manning. I am open to changing some of these rankings, but I should be close enough.
| Year | QB | Cap % | QB rank | Rushing rank | Scoring Rank | Receiver PFF Rank | Oline PFF Rank | Pass Rush PFF | Total Defensive Rank DVOA | Pass Defense DVOA | Run Defense DVOA | Scoring D Rank Tot Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Peyton Manning | 10.40% | 1 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 26 | 15 | 31 | 22 |
| 2007 | Eli Manning | 9.50% | 9 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 16 |
| 2008 | Ben Roethelisberger | 6.90% | 5 | 23 | 20 | 8 | 29 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2009 | Drew Brees | 8.70% | 4 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 27 | 12 | 9 | 24 | 20 |
| 2010 | Aaron Rodgers | 6.40% | 3 | 23 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 2 |
| 2011 | Eli Manning | 11.75% | 9 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 32 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 25 |
| 2012 | Joe Flacco | 6.60% | 16 | 11 | 15 | 3 | 18 | 23 | 19 | 15 | 26 | 11 |
| 2013 | Russel Wilson | 0.50% | 3 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| 2014 | Tom Brady | 10.60% | 1 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 25 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 8 |
| 2015 | Peyton Manning | 12.20% | 32 | 17 | 24 | 15 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 2016 | Tom Brady | 8.60% | 1 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 20 | 16 | 21 | 4 | 1 |
| 2017 | Nick Foles | 0.95% | 23 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 3 |
| 2018 | Tom Brady | 12.20% | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 7 |
| 2019 | Patrick Mahomes | 2.40% | 1 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 30 | 14 | 7 | 26 | 7 |
| 2020 | Tom Brady | 12.20% | 1 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| Averages: | 7.99% | 7.33 | 15.00 | 8.53 | 7.53 | 16.53 | 12.93 | 11.20 | 10.07 | 13.00 | 8.87 | |
| Vikings | Kirk Cousins | 16.60% | 13 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 18 | 32 | 26 | 14 | 30 | 29 |
Just HOF/Future HOF QBs:
| Year | QB | Cap % | QB rank | Rushing rank | Scoring Rank | Receiver PFF Rank | Oline PFF Rank | Pass Rush PFF | Total Defensive Rank DVOA | Pass Defense DVOA | Run Defense DVOA | Scoring D Rank Tot Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Averages: | 8.35% | 3.25 | 16.17 | 7.00 | 7.25 | 17.08 | 14.00 | 11.92 | 10.58 | 13.75 | 9.83 | ||
What does it all mean?
Well, defense matters on average, almost as much as offense. A good pass defense in particularly is important. Things we already probably guessed.
Offensively, after QB the most important group on the field appears to be WR. Lucky for us we have one of the best receiving groups in the NFL, have for the past 5 seasons.
Oline can be an important part of a championship team, but it also can be terrible and a team can win the SB. Almost half the past 15 SB winning teams had a below average pass blocking Oline and only 2 SB winning teams have had a top 5 oline. Compare that to receiver where we see only 1 team with a below average receiving group and 6 receiving groups have been top 5.
How close are we?
Closer than you would think based on our 7 win season last year. Having great receivers makes up for a lot and we should still have great receivers this season. Our Oline wasn't all that far off of the average SB winning pass blocking Oline.
The Vikings need to improve significantly rushing the QB and stopping the run. The first depends a lot on Hunter, but even with his addition this pass rush will be average. The second I expect to easily happen with the additions of Pierce and Tomlinson.
What do you all think? Are we close? Do you think the Vikings have added enough to get us to those averages posted above?
I mean you could add Foles in there too considering they were underdogs every game in the playoffs and noone thought they were going to win it all once the playoffs started with Foles. I just dont believe there is one single bleuprint to winning the superbowl and I believe alot of luck is involved too, again im not talking about Brady Mahomes, although Brady I think has sold his soul to the devil considering he is one of the luckiest guys to play the game not taking away everything about him he obviously has proved hes a champion but early on his career he got very lucky. 
... and neither is this Chris guy.