Post by Funkytown on Jun 11, 2021 8:57:26 GMT -6
Who ya got? Well, besides Zimmer and Spielman.
Here is what the fellas at Purple Insider are thinking.
Link:
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/make-or-break-these-10-vikings-have
Here is what the fellas at Purple Insider are thinking.
10) DT James Lynch
Lynch is one of a handful of fourth-round picks that made this list, and I omitted Troy Dye and D.J. Wonnum. The Vikings’ track record on fourth-round picks since 2011 is woeful. Aside from nice role players in Jarius Wright, Rhett Ellison and Ben Gedeon, Minnesota whiffed on their other eight fourth-rounders between 2011-19 with T.J. Clemmings, Willie Beavers and possibly our next entry headlining the list. Defensive linemen haven’t shown well either between Christian Ballard, Jaleel Johnson and Jalyn Holmes. Lynch is trying to avoid being lumped in that group after an uneventful first year.
Lynch was mostly invisible in training camp, then stayed that way during the regular season. He made the roster and was active most gamedays but only played 59 total snaps while the defensive tackles above him on the depth chart struggled. Even Abdullah Anderson was signed out of nowhere and elevated above Lynch in one game.
He’s just a second-year player, so Lynch’s situation isn’t dire yet, but another blah season from Lynch could mark the beginning of the end. Minnesota is begging for a player like him to step up as a subpackage pass-rusher.
9) CB Kris Boyd
He’s a seventh-round pick, so Boyd’s career is already a success by virtue of sticking with the team for a third year. The question is whether he can be anything more than a special teamer.
Boyd looked like a rookie in 2020 when given bigger opportunities, even on special teams where he was supposed on thrive. Remember against the Cowboys when he illegal shifted to nullify a fake punt conversion, then blocked a guy in the back on the ensuing punt? Or against the Jaguars when he deflected a ball into Laviska Shenault’s hands for a touchdown, then later mistimed a jump to allow a deep ball into the hands of Collin Johnson? It was that type of year for Boyd with numerous memorable gaffes.
Boyd got first-team reps in OTAs when the cornerback group was down a few bodies. He’s clearly not done yet, but he’ll need to clean up a lot of areas this season to avoid a chopping-block campaign in 2022.
8) G Dru Samia
The eye test wasn’t kind to Samia in Weeks 2-5 last season, and neither were the analytics.
He gave up the most pressures (14) of any guard during those four weeks, posting the worst pass-blocking grade, third-worst run-blocking grade and tying for the second-most penalties (4).
Maybe the Week 17 game against the Bears two seasons ago wasn’t a sign of better things to come after all.
On one hand, it’s only a four-game stretch. On the other, this was somewhat foreshadowed by the previous year of events. Samia was stuck with the 3s in his rookie year training camp while Mike Zimmer talked about how he was behind as a pass-blocker. He spent 2019 as a redshirt year until the final week. Then offseason rumors indicated he would be a preferred option at guard in 2020, only to get jumped in line by Dakota Dozier and Aviante Collins.
The team’s hesitance to promote Samia made more sense after seeing him play. Without a chance to start in 2021, it’ll be hard for him to boost his stock. Heading into training camp, he doesn’t seem assured of a roster spot — quite a fall for a former fourth-round pick that everyone was excited about. Clemmings and Beavers know how he feels.
7) DL Hercules Mata’afa
The shelf-life on UDFAs isn’t typically very long if those UDFAs aren’t producing. Mata’afa is entering his fourth year in the organization despite being cut briefly in 2020. He returned in October to help shore up the defensive line and notched 2.5 sacks, the first time Mata’afa seemingly got into a groove as a member of the Vikings.
Now in a contract year again, Mata’afa will have a tough time making the roster as a defensive end, where he got most of his work last year. The Vikings have wanted him to find a niche as an inside pass-rusher, but that hasn’t been his forte.
6) DL Jalyn Holmes
Like Mata’afa, Holmes has been moved all around the defensive line without finding a permanent home. The hope was that moving him back to his college position, defensive end, would unlock something, but Holmes was the only defensive end in football to record 600+ snaps and zero sacks last year in 14 games played.
Once players start to switch positions unsuccessfully, their clock is ticking. Holmes doesn’t have a clear-cut role on the Vikings, and he’s in a contract year. Minnesota wouldn’t have qualms about parting ways with yet another fourth-round pick.
5) WR Chad Beebe
Beebe is more or less the Mata’afa of the offense: 2018 UDFA, undersized, has an injury history, hung around just long enough to make a few plays in 2020, ultimately seems to have a low ceiling.
The Vikings continue to clear paths for Beebe nonetheless. In 2018 and 2019, injuries stymied his progress. In 2020, he made 20 grabs including a game-winning touchdown versus Carolina, but in his first full healthy season, the results were ultimately unimpressive. His yards per route run (0.91) was on par with peers like C.J Board, Isaiah Wright and Ray-Ray McCloud III — Beebe was 121st out of 128 qualified receivers in that regard.
To get re-signed after a subpar season, and to be considered the favorite to be the team’s WR3 heading into mini-camp, gives Beebe an opportunity many receivers of his ilk wouldn’t be afforded.
Beebe will make less than $1 million this year, assuming he makes the roster. That will be his salary range indefinitely unless he’s able to flash in 2021. The Vikings offense isn’t necessarily conducive to a WR3’s success, which puts even more pressure on Beebe to flash when given the chance.
4) CB Patrick Peterson
Once top cornerbacks begin to show decline, their value deteriorates fast. Josh Norman went from $15 million per year to $6 million in Buffalo. Darrelle Revis went from $14 million per year to $5.5 million per year in Kansas City. Xavier Rhodes went from over $14 million per year to a $3.25 million deal in Indianapolis.
Peterson wasn’t technically released like the others, but that move might’ve been coming had he not hit free agency. His one-year, $8 million deal with the Vikings is generous considering his age and trajectory, but the league’s generosity could dry up quickly if he doesn’t show improvement this season. It’s possible Peterson has a Rhodes-like bounce back if he’s incorporated with more zone coverages. That might yield a contract in free agency similar to the one Richard Sherman received three years ago in San Francisco (three years, $27 million). He could also be like Sherman in another sense: Stuck on the free agent market into the summer of 2022. Sherman, 33, is currently available and is probably hoping for a bigger salary than teams are willing to give. Peterson needs a big year to avoid that fate.
3) TE Tyler Conklin
The Vikings are clearly fond of Tyler Conklin to entrust him with the backup tight end job without bringing in any significant competition. Brandon Dillon is probably the only in-house option that could step in Conklin’s way.
This is a big development for Conklin, who seemed destined to toil as the TE3 on the Vikings depth chart for the duration of his rookie deal. Kirk Cousins always brought up Conklin as one of the weapons the Vikings possessed on offense, which seemed disingenuous considering his lack of impact. The final four games of the season might’ve provided some justification for Cousins’ claims. Conklin was one of only 14 tight ends leaguewide to get 20+ targets in that stretch, and his yards per route run ranked 17th of 46.
Entering the final year of his rookie deal, Conklin has a shot to earn a Rhett Ellison-type deal in free agency. The former Vikings backup tight end received a four-year, $18 million deal on the open market. If Conklin can block the way Ellison did and be an even better receiving threat, he’ll likely be staring at a multi-year deal.
2) C Garrett Bradbury
It’s a pivotal third year for the former first-round pick. The Vikings are less than a year from making a decision on Bradbury’s fifth-year option, and if they had to make that call today there’s no guarantee they’d pick it up.
The Vikings last center, Pat Elflein, got yanked from his spot after two seasons, but Bradbury seems to have the organization’s full support in his third season snapping the ball to Cousins. Things might get dicey in 2022, though, if Bradbury delivers a clone of his previous season.
Bradbury ranked last among qualified centers in pass-blocking grade last season (50% of snaps). That’s two years in a row with that unfortunate distinction. Zimmer has spoken several times this offseason about increasing the size of his offensive line to help with pass-blocking, a contrast from the team’s light-and-lithe archetype that was used when it drafted Bradbury.
Minnesota still values him for his pre-snap diagnosis, his chemistry with Cousins, his demeanor on the field and his run-blocking ability. His 2021 will be all about pass-blocking, which is still a box left unchecked. That fifth-year option may depend on it.
1) QB Kirk Cousins
There is not the kind of financial pressure on Cousins that there is on other players in this list, but you only get to be a franchise quarterback for so long.
With the Vikings approaching a decision point on Cousins, who now has a rookie to glance at over his shoulder, there’s more pressure than ever on the quarterback to extend his time atop the Vikings quarterback throne a little bit longer.
Lynch is one of a handful of fourth-round picks that made this list, and I omitted Troy Dye and D.J. Wonnum. The Vikings’ track record on fourth-round picks since 2011 is woeful. Aside from nice role players in Jarius Wright, Rhett Ellison and Ben Gedeon, Minnesota whiffed on their other eight fourth-rounders between 2011-19 with T.J. Clemmings, Willie Beavers and possibly our next entry headlining the list. Defensive linemen haven’t shown well either between Christian Ballard, Jaleel Johnson and Jalyn Holmes. Lynch is trying to avoid being lumped in that group after an uneventful first year.
Lynch was mostly invisible in training camp, then stayed that way during the regular season. He made the roster and was active most gamedays but only played 59 total snaps while the defensive tackles above him on the depth chart struggled. Even Abdullah Anderson was signed out of nowhere and elevated above Lynch in one game.
He’s just a second-year player, so Lynch’s situation isn’t dire yet, but another blah season from Lynch could mark the beginning of the end. Minnesota is begging for a player like him to step up as a subpackage pass-rusher.
9) CB Kris Boyd
He’s a seventh-round pick, so Boyd’s career is already a success by virtue of sticking with the team for a third year. The question is whether he can be anything more than a special teamer.
Boyd looked like a rookie in 2020 when given bigger opportunities, even on special teams where he was supposed on thrive. Remember against the Cowboys when he illegal shifted to nullify a fake punt conversion, then blocked a guy in the back on the ensuing punt? Or against the Jaguars when he deflected a ball into Laviska Shenault’s hands for a touchdown, then later mistimed a jump to allow a deep ball into the hands of Collin Johnson? It was that type of year for Boyd with numerous memorable gaffes.
Boyd got first-team reps in OTAs when the cornerback group was down a few bodies. He’s clearly not done yet, but he’ll need to clean up a lot of areas this season to avoid a chopping-block campaign in 2022.
8) G Dru Samia
The eye test wasn’t kind to Samia in Weeks 2-5 last season, and neither were the analytics.
He gave up the most pressures (14) of any guard during those four weeks, posting the worst pass-blocking grade, third-worst run-blocking grade and tying for the second-most penalties (4).
Maybe the Week 17 game against the Bears two seasons ago wasn’t a sign of better things to come after all.
On one hand, it’s only a four-game stretch. On the other, this was somewhat foreshadowed by the previous year of events. Samia was stuck with the 3s in his rookie year training camp while Mike Zimmer talked about how he was behind as a pass-blocker. He spent 2019 as a redshirt year until the final week. Then offseason rumors indicated he would be a preferred option at guard in 2020, only to get jumped in line by Dakota Dozier and Aviante Collins.
The team’s hesitance to promote Samia made more sense after seeing him play. Without a chance to start in 2021, it’ll be hard for him to boost his stock. Heading into training camp, he doesn’t seem assured of a roster spot — quite a fall for a former fourth-round pick that everyone was excited about. Clemmings and Beavers know how he feels.
7) DL Hercules Mata’afa
The shelf-life on UDFAs isn’t typically very long if those UDFAs aren’t producing. Mata’afa is entering his fourth year in the organization despite being cut briefly in 2020. He returned in October to help shore up the defensive line and notched 2.5 sacks, the first time Mata’afa seemingly got into a groove as a member of the Vikings.
Now in a contract year again, Mata’afa will have a tough time making the roster as a defensive end, where he got most of his work last year. The Vikings have wanted him to find a niche as an inside pass-rusher, but that hasn’t been his forte.
6) DL Jalyn Holmes
Like Mata’afa, Holmes has been moved all around the defensive line without finding a permanent home. The hope was that moving him back to his college position, defensive end, would unlock something, but Holmes was the only defensive end in football to record 600+ snaps and zero sacks last year in 14 games played.
Once players start to switch positions unsuccessfully, their clock is ticking. Holmes doesn’t have a clear-cut role on the Vikings, and he’s in a contract year. Minnesota wouldn’t have qualms about parting ways with yet another fourth-round pick.
5) WR Chad Beebe
Beebe is more or less the Mata’afa of the offense: 2018 UDFA, undersized, has an injury history, hung around just long enough to make a few plays in 2020, ultimately seems to have a low ceiling.
The Vikings continue to clear paths for Beebe nonetheless. In 2018 and 2019, injuries stymied his progress. In 2020, he made 20 grabs including a game-winning touchdown versus Carolina, but in his first full healthy season, the results were ultimately unimpressive. His yards per route run (0.91) was on par with peers like C.J Board, Isaiah Wright and Ray-Ray McCloud III — Beebe was 121st out of 128 qualified receivers in that regard.
To get re-signed after a subpar season, and to be considered the favorite to be the team’s WR3 heading into mini-camp, gives Beebe an opportunity many receivers of his ilk wouldn’t be afforded.
Beebe will make less than $1 million this year, assuming he makes the roster. That will be his salary range indefinitely unless he’s able to flash in 2021. The Vikings offense isn’t necessarily conducive to a WR3’s success, which puts even more pressure on Beebe to flash when given the chance.
4) CB Patrick Peterson
Once top cornerbacks begin to show decline, their value deteriorates fast. Josh Norman went from $15 million per year to $6 million in Buffalo. Darrelle Revis went from $14 million per year to $5.5 million per year in Kansas City. Xavier Rhodes went from over $14 million per year to a $3.25 million deal in Indianapolis.
Peterson wasn’t technically released like the others, but that move might’ve been coming had he not hit free agency. His one-year, $8 million deal with the Vikings is generous considering his age and trajectory, but the league’s generosity could dry up quickly if he doesn’t show improvement this season. It’s possible Peterson has a Rhodes-like bounce back if he’s incorporated with more zone coverages. That might yield a contract in free agency similar to the one Richard Sherman received three years ago in San Francisco (three years, $27 million). He could also be like Sherman in another sense: Stuck on the free agent market into the summer of 2022. Sherman, 33, is currently available and is probably hoping for a bigger salary than teams are willing to give. Peterson needs a big year to avoid that fate.
3) TE Tyler Conklin
The Vikings are clearly fond of Tyler Conklin to entrust him with the backup tight end job without bringing in any significant competition. Brandon Dillon is probably the only in-house option that could step in Conklin’s way.
This is a big development for Conklin, who seemed destined to toil as the TE3 on the Vikings depth chart for the duration of his rookie deal. Kirk Cousins always brought up Conklin as one of the weapons the Vikings possessed on offense, which seemed disingenuous considering his lack of impact. The final four games of the season might’ve provided some justification for Cousins’ claims. Conklin was one of only 14 tight ends leaguewide to get 20+ targets in that stretch, and his yards per route run ranked 17th of 46.
Entering the final year of his rookie deal, Conklin has a shot to earn a Rhett Ellison-type deal in free agency. The former Vikings backup tight end received a four-year, $18 million deal on the open market. If Conklin can block the way Ellison did and be an even better receiving threat, he’ll likely be staring at a multi-year deal.
2) C Garrett Bradbury
It’s a pivotal third year for the former first-round pick. The Vikings are less than a year from making a decision on Bradbury’s fifth-year option, and if they had to make that call today there’s no guarantee they’d pick it up.
The Vikings last center, Pat Elflein, got yanked from his spot after two seasons, but Bradbury seems to have the organization’s full support in his third season snapping the ball to Cousins. Things might get dicey in 2022, though, if Bradbury delivers a clone of his previous season.
Bradbury ranked last among qualified centers in pass-blocking grade last season (50% of snaps). That’s two years in a row with that unfortunate distinction. Zimmer has spoken several times this offseason about increasing the size of his offensive line to help with pass-blocking, a contrast from the team’s light-and-lithe archetype that was used when it drafted Bradbury.
Minnesota still values him for his pre-snap diagnosis, his chemistry with Cousins, his demeanor on the field and his run-blocking ability. His 2021 will be all about pass-blocking, which is still a box left unchecked. That fifth-year option may depend on it.
1) QB Kirk Cousins
There is not the kind of financial pressure on Cousins that there is on other players in this list, but you only get to be a franchise quarterback for so long.
With the Vikings approaching a decision point on Cousins, who now has a rookie to glance at over his shoulder, there’s more pressure than ever on the quarterback to extend his time atop the Vikings quarterback throne a little bit longer.
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/make-or-break-these-10-vikings-have