Uncle's 2021 Mock Draft "Story"
Apr 14, 2021 20:34:17 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 1 more like this
Post by Uncle on Apr 14, 2021 20:34:17 GMT -6
This is probably the longest Mock write-up I've ever done so if you just want to know who I drafted when, here's the list :
(Rd 1) #26 - Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn St
(Rd 2) #50 - *Brady Christensen, OT, BYU
(Rd 3) #69 - Baron Browning, LB, Ohio St
(Rd 3) #98 - Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
(Rd 4) #119 - *Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee
(Rd 4) #132 - James Wiggins, S, Cincinnati
(Rd 5) #148 - *Darren Hall, CB, San Diego St
(Rd 5) #157 - Royce Newman, OL, Ole Miss
(Rd 5) #168 - *Dazz Newsome, WR, North Carolina
(Rd 6) #189 - Jonathan Marshall, DT, Arkansas
(Rd 6) #217 - *John Bates, TE, Boise St.
(Rd 6) #218 - *Kene Nwangwu, RB, Iowa St
(Rd 7) #240 - Jose Borregales, K, Miami
(Rd 7) #251 - Mark Gilbert, CB, Duke
(Rd 7) #259 - *Sam Cooper, OG, Merrimack
* designates a prospect the Vikes have shown pre-Draft interest in (met with virtually, etc)
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Now, if you want to know the "story" on how the Vikings went from 10 picks pre-Draft to 14 total picks and three 7th's (after going into the Draft with no 7th's), then refer to the below. You may want to crack open a cold one though, it's a long post....
I told myself a couple weeks ago that I wasn't going to do one of these write-ups this year because there were just too many unknown variables and so many different directions the Vikings could go that is wasn't worth it. I know some like to do Mocks on what they would do, or what the Vikings should do, but I always like to take a "realistic" approach based on known variables (including Vikings draft history in the Zimmer era) on what they realistically might do, perhaps with a little sprinkling of what I think they should do throw in there. I've been super busy the last few weeks with work / personal items, but now that I'm reading more material and absorbing more information (a big chunk of which was Brugler's 2021 "Beast" guide - thank you again Funkytown - really awesome material), I just had to do one because I know I would be kicking myself afterwards if I didn't.
Pre-Draft thoughts on what Vikes will do:
Early Rounds: DE/LT
The reason I think this is because they've been trying to add both for the past year, unsuccessfully. Last Draft, they tried to trade for Trent Williams and when that didn't work out they went with BPA in Ezra in Round 2, and the "tea leaves" this offseason have him staying at RT in 2021. Then they toyed with O'Neill at LT when they traded for Ngakoue if Reiff didn't accept a pay cut, which he ultimately did and then they cut Reiff and started kicking the tires around trading for Orlando Brown, Jr. Speaking of Ngakoue, obviously Rick and Zimmer envision a solid DE across from Hunter and tried to entice Griffen to return in 2020, then traded for Ngakoue and pursued some DE's this offseason (Hendrickson & Lawson). Since the Vikes don't typically like going IOL or RT in Round 1 (outside of Bradbury in 2019), I don't see them taking IOL if they trade down and they typically wait for Round 2 for that position (ie, O'Neill & Cleveland), and since there aren't any obvious Top 15 DE's without some sort of red flags, I see the Vike's top priority on Day 1 to land either Sewell or Slater and if they can't and if no one out of the Top 10 falls to #14 (we're talking D Smith, Pitts, Waddle or Surtain), I think Rick trades back to get the most value he can and they focus on DE later in Round 1 (Phillips if they're comfortable w/ medicals, Ojulari or Oweh). I don't think they take Vera-Tucker at #14 as the probably envision him IOL in the NFL and they typically don't take IOL in Round 1 and I don't think they're high on Darrisaw and everyone else who's a fringe 1st Rd OL player either isn't a fit for the Vikes or they view as playing as position they don't value in Round 1 (IOL or RT). Also, I don't think the Vikes make a play for Orlando Brown Jr. - partly because I'm not sure the have the cap space beyond 2021 for him with having to pay Hunter & O'Neill extensions and partly because "I'll believe it when I actually see it" when it comes to him being a scheme fit for the Vikes outside ZBS.
Mid Rounds (3rd/4th): CB, IOL/RT, QB2, LB, WR
Even with the possibility of Gladney's days in purple being numbered and Hughes a question-mark for 2021, they Vikes 2021 CB roster is relatively set. However, the 2022+ CB roster is anything but with Dantzler, Boyd & Hand being the CB roster (if you assume Gladney is gone), so even if the Vikes retain Mac or Peterson for 2022+, depth is needed for the longer term. The Vikes don't have a history in the Zimmer era of taking CB's in the mid-rounds - it's either early (Waynes, Mac, Hughes) or late (J Price, J Tocho, K Boyd), but the early success of Dantzler in 2020 being drafted in the 3rd round will hopefully open some eyes among the scouting/coaching/GM staff that quality DB's can be had in the middle rounds and I do believe there are some in this Draft that meet the Vikings CB threshold #'s. I've already laid out earlier that outside of Bradbury in 2019, the Vikes don't typically take IOL in Round 1 and wait until at least Round 2 to address the interior. Should that philosophy change? Probably, but like with trading for Orlando Brown Jr (who isn't a scheme fit for our current Kubiak outside ZBS system), I'll believe it when I actually see it. It's been reported the Vikes have done a fair amount of scouting on QB's and since I believe anything beyond Mills/Trask/Mond offer anything that Browning/Stanley don't already bring (ie, QB3) and the fact they haven't signed Mannion back yet when in the two prior years they have by now, it leads me to conclude they are taking an upgrade of QB2 seriously. I also believe they should think long and hard about life beyond Barr in 2022+ and that means drafting LB earlier than what they have been which, since Kendricks in 2015, has mostly been "fodder" from the 5th on...the exception being last year with Dye in the 4th and even though it's early, I don't think anyone envisions Dye taking over Barr's SAM role in 2022+. On the WR need, they struck out with Rodney Adams and KJ Osborn as ST/utility WR's and they need an upgrade over Beebe/Osborn - I do think they'll look for a WR in the Amari Rodgers/D'Wayne Eskridge mold that offers ST/return abilities early in Year 1 while taking more WR snaps in Years 2-4.
Later Rounds/PFA: S, OL depth, DT, TE3, RB, DB
The Vikes have not prioritized the S position in the Draft in the early/middle rounds since Harrison Smith and I'm expecting that to continue this year. I really like Indiana's Jamar Johnson and UCF's R Grant, but the Vikes don't have the extra picks early on acquire them. Plus, it seems to me they will give Xavier Woods every opportunity to win the FS job (paid a little extra to get him) so they're probably looking for S-depth only which lends itself to Day 3. The Vikings have taken OL depth on Day 3 in every single Zimmer-era Draft and I expect that will continue - they won't "double-dip" on the OL on Day 1 / Day 2 and will again wait for Day 3 and again, that begs the question of whether that philosophy should change...and while many of us say "yes", I'll believe when I actually see it. And with Tomlinson and Pierce as the starting DT's, I tend to think they'll look to Day 3 for DT depth to develop vs Day 1 or even Day 2. I do think they look for the Rhett Ellison/David Morgan blocking TE in Round 6 and they have been kicking the tires on RB's during the pre-Draft process so I do think they'll look for another Boone-type RB in the later rounds or part of the PFA process. They do have a tendency to also pick-up a late DB for ST purposes-only that could develop into a defensive depth piece in Years 3 & 4 (think M Epps, J Kearse).
Round 1:
Top 13: I don't know the order, but I'm fairly certain that all 5 QB's are gone in the Top 10, Pitts, Sewell, Chase, D Smith, J Waddle, Surtain are probably in the Top 11. The Vikes will probably make calls to multiple teams in the Top 10 if Sewell drops after #5 and they may have already made a call to Atlanta to see about the possibility of going all the way up to #4 to grab Sewell in front of Cincy at #5. Ultimately, once #12 rolls along, LAC is the one who trades up 1 spot w/ Philly to get Slater, outbidding the Vikes, or Slater is taken in the Top 11 and Philly gets Smith or Waddle. Either way, with both Sewell & Slater off the board, Rick probably looks to maximize the Day 2 value and takes multiple calls for the best offer, with the Browns being the best one.
#14 - Trade down w/ Cleveland
Minnesota receives #26, #59 (Rd 2) and #132 (Rd 4)
Per the Rich Hill trade model, the point difference between #14 and #26 is 102 pts; Cleveland's #59 pick in Rd 2 is worth 91 pts so they have to throw in their 2nd pick in Round 4 (the later one) worth 19 pts for the Vikes to accept. Cleveland is in "win-now" mode and sees an opportunity to grab a Day 1 game-changer in Micah Parsons ahead of potential landing spots in New England, Vegas & Miami. The Browns have two picks in Rounds 3 & 4 so they have the Day 2 / early Day 3 "ammunition" to trade-up for a difference-maker. The Vikings get their 2nd Rd pick back and pick up another early Day 3 pick to use later on. If the Vikes are high on Jaelen Phillips and are comfortable with his medicals, they may consider taking him at #14 but we just have no way of knowing that. I don't think Phillips makes it to the back-end of Round 1 so the trade-down comes with the admissions they will likely need to target Ojulari, Oweh or Tryon w/ that late 1st Rd pick knowing they won't take IOL or RT in Round 1 and none of potential LT prospects back that far are a fit scheme-wise (ie, Eichenberg). I can also possibly see Zimmer possibly thinking about Jaycee Horn, but outside of Surtain, I don't see them taking CB at #14.
#26 - Vikes select DE Jayson, Oweh, Penn St
If there is one prospect who's Pro Day #'s aligned perfectly with what the Vikes look for in their DE's, it's Oweh and at the back-end of Round 1, it's probably worth the gamble on his athletic profile. The other thing I think the Vikes like is his run defense - he's not just a pass-rusher and is a solid run-defender who doesn't miss tackles. This is far from a sure-thing because Oweh is still developing, may not actually get starting snaps Wk 1, and it's saying something that they were able to select Hunter in the 3rd Round in 2015 with the same athletic profile and lack of college production (ie, "high upside") and are now taking a shot 2 rounds earlier...but like I mentioned earlier, they rolled the dice w/ Ngakoue playing opposite Hunter and they are willing to bet on Oweh being disruptive enough in Year 1 to make a difference. There just isn't a prospect with his length and testing #'s (3-cone, 10-yd split, 40-yd dash and jump #'s ) anywhere else in this Draft - not even Ojulari (who does have sneaky-good length for someone only 6'2") has the testing #'s Oweh has. I do think if the Vikes are comfortable with Phillips medicals, they actually might have him higher on their board and would consider him at #14 because they probably can't get away with trading down and expecting him to fall down to him at #19 or in the 20's so this pick assumes they can't land Sewell or Slater and aren't comfortable enough w/ Phillips at #14.
Round 2:
Trade-Up with Miami to #50
Miami Receives #59, #125 (Rd 4)
With DE secured in Rd 1, the Vikes turn their attention to addressing LT in Round 2 with the pick they received from Cleveland in the Rd 1 trade-back. The only issue is that they're at the bottom-end of Rd 2 at #59, and given the Vikings's tendencies to draft "athletic" OL prospects and the recent mocks/Big Boards that are out there, there's a high probability they miss out on some of the prospects they probably covet. The other "issue" is that after Sewell and Slater in Round 1, there probably isn't another LT that could start Wk 1 and be decent without them being a "project" (sans Darrisaw who won't be around in Round 2). I know some may think Walker Little is someone who could start Wk 1, but I do think he's too much of a gamble in Round 2 given he hasn't taken a snap since 2018. They probably have to come to the realization that they will more likely have to draft a RT and move O'Neill over to LT going forward, something they flirted with before the 2020 regular season. The obvious pick here given the tape and testing #'s is Samuel Cosmi out of Texas - that 4.39 short shuttle # really stands out among the entire OT class, similar to how Ezra had the lowest 20-yard shuttle in 2020 and O'Neill had one of the best in 2018. I don't think Cosmi makes it very far in Round 2 (and someone like KC could theoretically take him at the back-end of Rd 1) and similarly for Radunz - I think he gets snatched up at the very least by the time the Chargers select at #47. If Washington doesn't go OL in Round 1, there's a strong possibility they go OL in Round 2 so before they pick at #51, the Vike trade-up with Miami at #50 - the Rich Hill model has this as 24 pts and the Vikes 4th Rd selection at #125 is 23 pts; plus the 'Phins don't currently have a selection in Round 5 and they've already made a Round 2 selection at #36 so they probably wouldn't mind dropping 9 spots to pick up a 4th rounder.
#50 - Vikes select OT Brady Christensen, BYU
With Cosmi and Radunz off the board by the mid-2nd, the Vikes probably can't afford to sit and wait for someone to drop to the back-end of Round 2 like they did in 2018 w/ O'Neill and last year in Ezra. Besides, they have the Day 3 draft capital to move up and secure someone they like, and I do believe they like Christensen after his Pro Day. The Vikes look for really positive short-shuttle times (4.46 and under) for lateral movement ability, strong broad jumps numbers (indication of lower-body strength) and arm length (at least 33 1/4 arms) to get their hands on DE's first to laterally "move" them outside and away. Outside of Slater (4.45) and Cosmi (4.39), Christensen's 4.52 short-shuttle is the next best time in this range of OT's (Northern Iowa's Spencer Brown had a 4.40 but he's more of a "project" and not ready for Year 1 snaps). If you combine that with his broad jump score of 10'4" (only OT I can see from Brugler's "Beast" guide who had a score of more than 10'), they will resonate with the Vikings scouting/coaching/front office staff. The problem is his arm length - at 32 1/4, that would probably be the shortest arms the Vikings would have drafted for an OT position in the Zimmer era, which is why I think the Vikes probably have him compete for the RT1 job w/ Hill/Udoh while O'Neill slides over to LT. By the mid-point of the 2021 season, I think you're likely to see a OL of O'Neill-Cole-Bradbury-Cleveland-Christensen. The other possibility is that he gets kicked inside to LG with those arms - with his 30 reps in the bench press and his strong broad jump score, perhaps a move inside is more likely, and the OL could look like O'Neill-Christensen-Bradbury-Cleveland-Udoh/Hill. The main point here with this is: they miss on Sewell/Slater in Round 1 to solve the LT issue, I won't believe they'll trade for Orlando Brown Jr until I see it (due to scheme fit) and after a run on "athletic" OT's in Round 2, they'll have to move-up to secure the next best one in Christensen. If you're asking, "hey, if they move Christensen inside to OG, they not just go with a strong IOL prospect with great athletic testing #'s in Rd 2", and the answer is that outside of C Creed Humphrey, no one in this range has the type of athletic testing #'s that Christensen has. Although Trey Smith, Wyatt Davis and Aaron Banks fall in this range, the just aren't scheme fits for the Vikes ZBS and just like I mentioned with Orlando Brown Jr, "I'll believe it when I actually see it" when it comes to drafting lesser-athletic OL prospects. The other thing to note here is Christensen's age - he's 24 and would probably be the oldest Viking OL prospect they've drafted in the Zimmer era. I know some teams - like Pittsburgh - won't consider "older" prospects in the early rounds, but athleticism wins out.
So after the ends of Rounds 1 & 2, there is a disappointment that the Vikes didn't secure their LT with either Sewell or Slater or the RT with the strongest testing #'s in Cosmi, but they come away with a younger Danielle Hunter prospect in Oweh and either a RT or starting LG in Christensen. Some fans might compare this to 2018 when we came away with Hughes and O'Neill in Rounds 1 & 2 and were left with an underwhelmed feeling - hey, I did say this was "realistic", right?
Vikings have the following picks remaining:
Round 3: #78, #90
Round 4: #119, #132 (from CLE), #134, #143
Round 5: #157, #168
Round 6: #199
Round 3
At the start of Round 3 and with the Vikings never double-dipping along the OL this early, I think they probably turn their attention to BPA with CB's. That being said, there is one prospect who's athletic testing #'s really, really stand out among his peers this draft season - Ohio St. LB Baron Browning. At his Pro Day, Browning tested as the 5th-most athletic LB to enter the NFL since 1987, per the RAS system. He had 93rd-or-better-percentile showings in the 40 (4.56), 3-cone (6.78), vertical (40") and broad jump (10'10"). Browning also took part in defensive line drills that day and Brugler had this to say in his "Beast" guide, "He projects best as a SAM linebacker or designated pass rusher with down-the-road starting potential". With 2021 probably being Barr's last year in 2021 and Dye not really looking like a SAM after his rookie year, I honestly think the Vikes are too tempted to take Browning with those athletic testing #'s if he's on the board at the start of Round 3 (Brugler has him in Round 3 and #91 overall, so it's possible, although many on TheDraftNetwork have him going in Round 1).
Trade-Up with Cincinnati to #69
Cincinnati Receives #78, #134 (Rd 4)
The key here to possibly get ahead of Denver at #71 who does have LB as a need heading into the Draft. If they don't go Parsons in Round 1 and if they don't address it in Round 2, they probably have their eyes on Browning at #71. Cincy isn't exactly competing for a Super Bowl in 2021 and probably wouldn't mind accumulating another Round 4 pick to drop 9 spots in Round 3. The Rich Hill trade model has this jump at 12 total points and even though the Vikes pick at #134 is worth 18 pts, they need to pay a "premium" to jump to a Top 5 spot here.
#69 - Vikes select LB Baron Browning, Ohio State
This pick serves a few purposes: 1) very athletic player who at least will play a key ST role in 2021 and possibly come off the edge in all-out blitz packages, 2) provide LB depth beyond Barr/Kendricks/Vigil/Dye in 2021 and 3) serve as an understudy to Barr in 2021 in the SAM role and take over in 2022+, continually saving cap dollars from paying market price for a starting SAM LB in 2022 and keeping the premium cap dollars on defense with others on defense (ie, we can't afford two $10m+ contracts in the LB position going forward). It's true that Browning doesn't have the strongest PFF coverage grades, but he won't get starting snaps in Year 1 anyway and has Year 1 to learn the complications of the SAM role in Zimmer's system; plus, Browning fits the mold of what Zimmer looks for in his SAM LB's (minus the 6'5" frame Barr has) - all the athletic tools to play with with a knack for getting after the QB. Browning continually improved each year at Ohio St, even in a relatively loaded LB room during his time there.
#90 - Trade-Down with New Orleans to #98
Minnesota receives #98, #218 (Rd 6) & 2022 5th Rd pick
At this point, all the athletic CB's have been scooped up and even though Rick might try to kick the tires on moving-up for a DT like Daviyon Nixon or Milton Williams, just like in 2020, I think they'll hold pat and try to extract a bit of Day 3 "value" (as they see it). I'm of the mindset that Mills/Trask/Mond won't be taken in Round 2 and all three are available in Round 3, and ever since I watched Trask during the 2020 season I could see him fitting in with Sean Payton and the Saints. If they don't make a move for him at the end of Round 2, I think they do here in Round 3 and move up to get him. The Rich Hill model has this jump up worth just 7 pts, but the Saints don't have much Day 3 capital - only a Round 4 pick worth 19 pts and their remaining Round 6/7 picks worth a total of 6 pts. I do know the Saints traded away their Day 3 to the Vikings in 2020, that was when they were "going for it" with Brees one last time, so they hold-off on trading away everything on Day 3 and instead give up a future 2022 5th Rd pick (worth 9-10 pts) and their 2021 6th Rd pick worth 3 pits - a bit of a "premium" to pay for the Saints, but you always pay somewhat of a premium for trading up for a QB - even in Round 3.
#98 - Vikes select QB Davis Mills, Stanford
This is somewhat of a stretch, I know - the Vikings selecting a QB in the middle of a Draft? However, numerous articles lately seem to point at the Vikings really doing a bunch of "work" on QB's and since they haven't signed Mannion yet, I'm really thinking they are actually serious about upgrading their QB2 position (from an on-field perspective vs just game-prep perspective). Of the mid-Rd QB prospects, I think Mills is probably the closest to what the Vikings are looking for to backup Cousins compared to Trask & Mond; from Brugler's "Beast" guide: "A loose, well-built passer, Mills shows the ability to scan, operate from various platforms and throw with touch/anticipation. He is one of the best middle-of-the-field passers in the draft, but needs time to grow and eliminate the “what are you doing?” plays from his tape. Overall, Mills is still learning the throws he should and shouldn’t make, but he has size and mobility and delivers a very catchable ball with the field-reading skills to be a developmental NFL starter, although the health of his left knee is a strong concern." Obviously the Vikes have to ensure his knee checks out, but outside of that, I do think he would be the target if they go QB in the middle of the Draft. I've also mentioned this a bunch of times: after the next tier of Mond/Trask/Mills, I seriously don't see anyone beyond that in this QB class that is an obvious upgrade over Browning or Stanley so if the Vikes miss out on Mond/Trask/Mills, whichever QB they draft after that is basically drafting another Browning/Stanley. Yes, Newman and Book offer athleticism, but the Vikes don't value that in their offensive scheme right now and Mills actually showed some solid athleticism during his Stanford Pro Day.
Vikings have the following picks remaining:
Round 4: #119, #132 (from CLE), #143
Round 5: #157, #168
Round 6: #199, #218 (from NO)
Round 4
#119 - Vikes select WR Josh Palmer, Tennessee
After moving around all over the place on Day 1 & 2, this is the first time the Vikings actually stay-put at their initial draft selection. Palmer is actually a sneaky-good WR and I think could be a steal early on Day 3 in a strong WR class. While I would love D'Wayne Eskridge because of his return abilities, he's probably long gone by Day 3 and Palmer offers something the Vikings don't currently have outside of Jefferson: a field-stretching "Z" WR. Palmer's college stats don't tell the story because the Volunteers have had poor offenses/QB's during his entire career, but despite that, his 16.6-yard average depth of target was one of the highest in the country and was one of the only WR's to beat Alabama's Patrick Surtain vertically. But he's not just a deep threat - he showed his route-running prowess at the Senior Bowl in January. He's also a solid run-blocker on the outside, too. He would make the perfect compliment to Jefferson, Thielen, Bisi & Beebe.
#132 - Vikes select S James Wiggins, Cincinnati
Vikes stay put yet again here and take a highly athletic S prospect in Wiggins who won't last much longer and might not be here to begin with. He appeared on Bruce Feldman's "Freak List" for three straight years so he has the NFL chops from an athletic standpoint, but he's a strong tackler, has the necessary football IQ and has great character (from Brugler's "Beast" guide). Wiggins will get ST snaps early and be a depth piece with Metellus behind Harry & Xavier Woods in 2021, but he could be a more athletic Harrison (minus Harry's height) down the line.
#143 - Trade-Down with Atlanta to #148 (Rd 5)
Minnesota receives #148, #182 (Rd 6)
I'm not projecting anything major here for Atlanta - this is moreso Rick accumulating Day 3 picks and with Atlanta having back-to-back picks in Rd 6 at #182 and #183, they can afford to spend one to get into the back-end of Round 4 while the Vikes drop to the top-end of Round 5 - the Vikes get the first of the picks since they are dropping out of Round 4 to Round 5. The Rich Hill trade model only has this jump from Atlanta worth 2 pts and since the pick Minnesota is receiving is worth 6, Rick gets his perceived great "value".
Vikings have the following picks remaining:
Round 5: #148 (from ATL) #157, #168, #182 (from ATL)
Round 6: #199, #218 (from NO)
Round 5
#148 - Vikes select CB Darren Hall, San Diego State
I know I mentioned earlier that the Vikings would more than likely go CB earlier than this due to depth issues beyond 2021, but they went in different directions and circle back to CB at the top-end of Round 5 after trading out of bottom of Round 4. Hall is not the prototypical Zimmer CB from a physical "frame" perspective at only 5'11", but given the Vikes went with Hughes and Gladney early in 2018/2020, I don't think 5'11" is a deal-breaker anymore for Zimmer. Hall offers above-average athletic traits (the Vikes typically go more athleticism on Day 3), but per Brugler, "...his press-man skills are NFL ready and he offers the toughness, athleticism and ball skills that should translate to the pro game". He led the team in PD, INT's and a strong tackler in the open-field - checks nearly all the boxes with Zimmer.
#157 - Vikes select OL Royce Newman, Ole Miss
I know many Vikes fans have them taking Illinois IOL prospect Kendrick Green due to his natural fit for the Vikes ZBS, but he'll more than likely be gone in the 4th and I don't know how much value the Vikes place on OG/C prospects early in Day 3. Bradbury is here in 2021/2022, and Cole is here to backup Bradbury at C in 2021 so I'm unsure if they OG/C here - I think they go more OT/OG versatility and Newman fits that mold. Although his 20-yard shuttle doesn't fit the Vikes preference, all the profiles say his athleticism pops-off during film and Brugler mentioned he's more of a "get in the way" blocker than mauler which equates to ZBS. He is older (will be 24 as a rookie) and he's only had 22 starts, but he's durable (started every game last 2 seasons) and versatile (can play 3 positions and coaches say he can play OC, too).
#168 - Vikes select WR Dazz Newsome, North Carolina
I think it's possible the Vikings double-dip here with WR in back-to-back rounds to bring in a slot/return option to compete w/ Beebe for that spot. KJ Osborn was a complete bust in 2020 and won't be on the 53-man roster in 2021 so the Vikings take another bite out of the apple in 2021. The WR roster will be Jefferson-Thielen-Palmer-Newsome-Bisi-Chisena w/ Chisena practically ST-only at this point.
#182 - Trade-Down with Philadelphia to #189 (Rd 6)
Minnesota receives #189 (Rd 6), #224 (Rd 6), #240 (Rd 7)
Philly has three 6th Rd picks and two 7th Rd picks and Rick sees "value" in trading out of the bottom-end of the 5th to pick up a 7th. Vikings fans groan yet again as they've traded out of the bottom-end of the round for the 2nd round in a row.
Vikings have the following picks remaining:
Round 6: #189 (from PHI), #199, #218 (from NO)
Round 7: #240 (from PHI)
Round 6
#189 - Vikes select DT Jonathan Marshall, Arkansas
The Vikings are set at the starting DT position, and even though they are projecting Tomlinson to have some pass-rush ability, they still need to develop gap-shooters to penetrate during sub-packages. They have Lynch and Watts, but they'll take another bite of the apple with Marshall - who played all over the DL at Arkansas but projects as a 3T in the NFL. This is basically Armon Watts 2.0 as Brugler writes this, "Overall, Marshall flashes explosive movements and spurts of power, but you want to see it more consistently and he requires further coaching to streamline his talent. He projects as a draft-and-develop three-technique tackle."
#199 - Trade-Down with Tampa Bay to #217
Minnesota receives #217 (Rd 6), #251 (Rd 7), #259 (Rd 7)
Why you ask? Tampa is still in win-now mode and could care less about their two 7th Rd picks (they're at the back-end of Rd 7 no less) and Rick loves 'em because he doesn't have to get into bidding wars with PFA's after the Draft. He's collected 7th's the last two drafts and it just stands to reason he'll do it again in 2021. Besides, the Vikings will get back-to-back picks at #217 and #218 now with three picks in the 7th.
#217 - Vikes select TE John Bates, Boise St.
Bates is arguably the best run-blocking TE in the entire draft class and think Rhett Ellison/David Morgan with this pick. Per Brugler's "Beast" guide, he has an impressive track background, soft hands and has extensive ST snaps who will contribute on ST on Day 1. Sound exactly like a fit for the Vikings.
#218 - Vikes select RB Kene Nwangwu, Iowa St
At this point, you're looking at athletes that might make the roster or PS based on their athletic prowess. With that in mind, I think Nwangwu has a shot to take Abdullah's spot as RB3 / return specialist - Abdullah only signed for the vet min. He is an explosive athlete with an impressive track background. He is a very good kick returner with a 26.8 YPR avg (on 92 returns), 1 TD and holds the school record for his avg. He was behind David Montgomery and Breece Hall on the Iowa St RB depth chart, but he made the most of his touches with a 5.6 YPC avg. He has to develop blitz pickup and receiving skills but his home-run breakaway speed (ran a 4.31) and return ability could get him on the roster Abdullah.
Vikings have the following picks remaining:
Round 7: #240 (from PHI), #251 (from TB), #259 (from TB)
Round 7
#240 - Vikes select K Jose Borregales, Miami
Those who know my posts about drafting K's know that I don't advocate this, but in this situation with Rick collecting some fliers in the 7th to avoid bidding wars post-Draft and with Greg Joseph on just a vet min deal w/ virtually no guaranteed money, even I'll say "why not".
#251 - Vikes select CB Mark Gilbert, Duke
Really interesting prospect here: his uncle, Sean Gilbert, was a DL out of Pitt who was drafted in '92 and played 11 seasons in the NFL and his cousin is none other than Darrelle Revis. He started off really good in 2017 as one of the top Freshman CB's in the entire country with 21 PD and 6 INT's so his NFL prowess is there. The problem is that he was riddled with injuries in 2018, 2019 (missed entire season) and 2020. He has the athletic ability and on-field production (2017 only) to be very solid NFL CB, but his injury history probably as him as PFA for many teams, which is where Rick comes in to swoop him up to avoid getting into a bidding war after the Draft. He's actually worth gambling on to get into TC to see what he can do, IMO.
#259 - Vikes select OG Sam Cooper, Merrimack
The Vikings recently met with Cooper and Brugler actually has him right in this range in his "Beast" guide so why not. Brugler's conclusion probably means Rick is interested in the 7th to avoid any bidding with other teams post-Draft: "Overall, Cooper is an intriguing prospect with a limited resume against lower competition, but he has the lower-body flexibility and mindset to develop in a zone scheme."
Conclusion:
The tone of the entire 2021 Vikings draft will be set in Round 1: if they trade up for Sewell or Slater, then there's no way they get to this many picks and they probably end up with less than 10 unless Rick seriously trades back in the 3rd (if he has any left after trading up in the 1st). If they don't like what's on the board at #14, I do see Rick trading down for the best value to acquire Day 2 picks like I have and Cleveland does make a ton of sense if all 5 QB's are off the board. If Mac Jones is still on board at #14, then who knows. But if they end up trading back into the 20's in Round 1, I do see the tone of the rest of the Draft flowing this way - DE in Round 1 and then going back to OL in Round 2 and from there it's acquiring more Day 3 draft capital and moving all-around like previous years, and yes, 15 picks ties the 2020 draft for most ever. The thing I do like about this particular draft is I do think it would give the Vikes some solid depth in 2021 and beyond with players who could develop into solid starters. Congrats is you read this entire thing, too - I actually had a blast thinking through this and writing it up.
(Rd 1) #26 - Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn St
(Rd 2) #50 - *Brady Christensen, OT, BYU
(Rd 3) #69 - Baron Browning, LB, Ohio St
(Rd 3) #98 - Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
(Rd 4) #119 - *Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee
(Rd 4) #132 - James Wiggins, S, Cincinnati
(Rd 5) #148 - *Darren Hall, CB, San Diego St
(Rd 5) #157 - Royce Newman, OL, Ole Miss
(Rd 5) #168 - *Dazz Newsome, WR, North Carolina
(Rd 6) #189 - Jonathan Marshall, DT, Arkansas
(Rd 6) #217 - *John Bates, TE, Boise St.
(Rd 6) #218 - *Kene Nwangwu, RB, Iowa St
(Rd 7) #240 - Jose Borregales, K, Miami
(Rd 7) #251 - Mark Gilbert, CB, Duke
(Rd 7) #259 - *Sam Cooper, OG, Merrimack
* designates a prospect the Vikes have shown pre-Draft interest in (met with virtually, etc)
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Now, if you want to know the "story" on how the Vikings went from 10 picks pre-Draft to 14 total picks and three 7th's (after going into the Draft with no 7th's), then refer to the below. You may want to crack open a cold one though, it's a long post....
I told myself a couple weeks ago that I wasn't going to do one of these write-ups this year because there were just too many unknown variables and so many different directions the Vikings could go that is wasn't worth it. I know some like to do Mocks on what they would do, or what the Vikings should do, but I always like to take a "realistic" approach based on known variables (including Vikings draft history in the Zimmer era) on what they realistically might do, perhaps with a little sprinkling of what I think they should do throw in there. I've been super busy the last few weeks with work / personal items, but now that I'm reading more material and absorbing more information (a big chunk of which was Brugler's 2021 "Beast" guide - thank you again Funkytown - really awesome material), I just had to do one because I know I would be kicking myself afterwards if I didn't.
Pre-Draft thoughts on what Vikes will do:
Early Rounds: DE/LT
The reason I think this is because they've been trying to add both for the past year, unsuccessfully. Last Draft, they tried to trade for Trent Williams and when that didn't work out they went with BPA in Ezra in Round 2, and the "tea leaves" this offseason have him staying at RT in 2021. Then they toyed with O'Neill at LT when they traded for Ngakoue if Reiff didn't accept a pay cut, which he ultimately did and then they cut Reiff and started kicking the tires around trading for Orlando Brown, Jr. Speaking of Ngakoue, obviously Rick and Zimmer envision a solid DE across from Hunter and tried to entice Griffen to return in 2020, then traded for Ngakoue and pursued some DE's this offseason (Hendrickson & Lawson). Since the Vikes don't typically like going IOL or RT in Round 1 (outside of Bradbury in 2019), I don't see them taking IOL if they trade down and they typically wait for Round 2 for that position (ie, O'Neill & Cleveland), and since there aren't any obvious Top 15 DE's without some sort of red flags, I see the Vike's top priority on Day 1 to land either Sewell or Slater and if they can't and if no one out of the Top 10 falls to #14 (we're talking D Smith, Pitts, Waddle or Surtain), I think Rick trades back to get the most value he can and they focus on DE later in Round 1 (Phillips if they're comfortable w/ medicals, Ojulari or Oweh). I don't think they take Vera-Tucker at #14 as the probably envision him IOL in the NFL and they typically don't take IOL in Round 1 and I don't think they're high on Darrisaw and everyone else who's a fringe 1st Rd OL player either isn't a fit for the Vikes or they view as playing as position they don't value in Round 1 (IOL or RT). Also, I don't think the Vikes make a play for Orlando Brown Jr. - partly because I'm not sure the have the cap space beyond 2021 for him with having to pay Hunter & O'Neill extensions and partly because "I'll believe it when I actually see it" when it comes to him being a scheme fit for the Vikes outside ZBS.
Mid Rounds (3rd/4th): CB, IOL/RT, QB2, LB, WR
Even with the possibility of Gladney's days in purple being numbered and Hughes a question-mark for 2021, they Vikes 2021 CB roster is relatively set. However, the 2022+ CB roster is anything but with Dantzler, Boyd & Hand being the CB roster (if you assume Gladney is gone), so even if the Vikes retain Mac or Peterson for 2022+, depth is needed for the longer term. The Vikes don't have a history in the Zimmer era of taking CB's in the mid-rounds - it's either early (Waynes, Mac, Hughes) or late (J Price, J Tocho, K Boyd), but the early success of Dantzler in 2020 being drafted in the 3rd round will hopefully open some eyes among the scouting/coaching/GM staff that quality DB's can be had in the middle rounds and I do believe there are some in this Draft that meet the Vikings CB threshold #'s. I've already laid out earlier that outside of Bradbury in 2019, the Vikes don't typically take IOL in Round 1 and wait until at least Round 2 to address the interior. Should that philosophy change? Probably, but like with trading for Orlando Brown Jr (who isn't a scheme fit for our current Kubiak outside ZBS system), I'll believe it when I actually see it. It's been reported the Vikes have done a fair amount of scouting on QB's and since I believe anything beyond Mills/Trask/Mond offer anything that Browning/Stanley don't already bring (ie, QB3) and the fact they haven't signed Mannion back yet when in the two prior years they have by now, it leads me to conclude they are taking an upgrade of QB2 seriously. I also believe they should think long and hard about life beyond Barr in 2022+ and that means drafting LB earlier than what they have been which, since Kendricks in 2015, has mostly been "fodder" from the 5th on...the exception being last year with Dye in the 4th and even though it's early, I don't think anyone envisions Dye taking over Barr's SAM role in 2022+. On the WR need, they struck out with Rodney Adams and KJ Osborn as ST/utility WR's and they need an upgrade over Beebe/Osborn - I do think they'll look for a WR in the Amari Rodgers/D'Wayne Eskridge mold that offers ST/return abilities early in Year 1 while taking more WR snaps in Years 2-4.
Later Rounds/PFA: S, OL depth, DT, TE3, RB, DB
The Vikes have not prioritized the S position in the Draft in the early/middle rounds since Harrison Smith and I'm expecting that to continue this year. I really like Indiana's Jamar Johnson and UCF's R Grant, but the Vikes don't have the extra picks early on acquire them. Plus, it seems to me they will give Xavier Woods every opportunity to win the FS job (paid a little extra to get him) so they're probably looking for S-depth only which lends itself to Day 3. The Vikings have taken OL depth on Day 3 in every single Zimmer-era Draft and I expect that will continue - they won't "double-dip" on the OL on Day 1 / Day 2 and will again wait for Day 3 and again, that begs the question of whether that philosophy should change...and while many of us say "yes", I'll believe when I actually see it. And with Tomlinson and Pierce as the starting DT's, I tend to think they'll look to Day 3 for DT depth to develop vs Day 1 or even Day 2. I do think they look for the Rhett Ellison/David Morgan blocking TE in Round 6 and they have been kicking the tires on RB's during the pre-Draft process so I do think they'll look for another Boone-type RB in the later rounds or part of the PFA process. They do have a tendency to also pick-up a late DB for ST purposes-only that could develop into a defensive depth piece in Years 3 & 4 (think M Epps, J Kearse).
Round 1:
Top 13: I don't know the order, but I'm fairly certain that all 5 QB's are gone in the Top 10, Pitts, Sewell, Chase, D Smith, J Waddle, Surtain are probably in the Top 11. The Vikes will probably make calls to multiple teams in the Top 10 if Sewell drops after #5 and they may have already made a call to Atlanta to see about the possibility of going all the way up to #4 to grab Sewell in front of Cincy at #5. Ultimately, once #12 rolls along, LAC is the one who trades up 1 spot w/ Philly to get Slater, outbidding the Vikes, or Slater is taken in the Top 11 and Philly gets Smith or Waddle. Either way, with both Sewell & Slater off the board, Rick probably looks to maximize the Day 2 value and takes multiple calls for the best offer, with the Browns being the best one.
#14 - Trade down w/ Cleveland
Minnesota receives #26, #59 (Rd 2) and #132 (Rd 4)
Per the Rich Hill trade model, the point difference between #14 and #26 is 102 pts; Cleveland's #59 pick in Rd 2 is worth 91 pts so they have to throw in their 2nd pick in Round 4 (the later one) worth 19 pts for the Vikes to accept. Cleveland is in "win-now" mode and sees an opportunity to grab a Day 1 game-changer in Micah Parsons ahead of potential landing spots in New England, Vegas & Miami. The Browns have two picks in Rounds 3 & 4 so they have the Day 2 / early Day 3 "ammunition" to trade-up for a difference-maker. The Vikings get their 2nd Rd pick back and pick up another early Day 3 pick to use later on. If the Vikes are high on Jaelen Phillips and are comfortable with his medicals, they may consider taking him at #14 but we just have no way of knowing that. I don't think Phillips makes it to the back-end of Round 1 so the trade-down comes with the admissions they will likely need to target Ojulari, Oweh or Tryon w/ that late 1st Rd pick knowing they won't take IOL or RT in Round 1 and none of potential LT prospects back that far are a fit scheme-wise (ie, Eichenberg). I can also possibly see Zimmer possibly thinking about Jaycee Horn, but outside of Surtain, I don't see them taking CB at #14.
#26 - Vikes select DE Jayson, Oweh, Penn St
If there is one prospect who's Pro Day #'s aligned perfectly with what the Vikes look for in their DE's, it's Oweh and at the back-end of Round 1, it's probably worth the gamble on his athletic profile. The other thing I think the Vikes like is his run defense - he's not just a pass-rusher and is a solid run-defender who doesn't miss tackles. This is far from a sure-thing because Oweh is still developing, may not actually get starting snaps Wk 1, and it's saying something that they were able to select Hunter in the 3rd Round in 2015 with the same athletic profile and lack of college production (ie, "high upside") and are now taking a shot 2 rounds earlier...but like I mentioned earlier, they rolled the dice w/ Ngakoue playing opposite Hunter and they are willing to bet on Oweh being disruptive enough in Year 1 to make a difference. There just isn't a prospect with his length and testing #'s (3-cone, 10-yd split, 40-yd dash and jump #'s ) anywhere else in this Draft - not even Ojulari (who does have sneaky-good length for someone only 6'2") has the testing #'s Oweh has. I do think if the Vikes are comfortable with Phillips medicals, they actually might have him higher on their board and would consider him at #14 because they probably can't get away with trading down and expecting him to fall down to him at #19 or in the 20's so this pick assumes they can't land Sewell or Slater and aren't comfortable enough w/ Phillips at #14.
Round 2:
Trade-Up with Miami to #50
Miami Receives #59, #125 (Rd 4)
With DE secured in Rd 1, the Vikes turn their attention to addressing LT in Round 2 with the pick they received from Cleveland in the Rd 1 trade-back. The only issue is that they're at the bottom-end of Rd 2 at #59, and given the Vikings's tendencies to draft "athletic" OL prospects and the recent mocks/Big Boards that are out there, there's a high probability they miss out on some of the prospects they probably covet. The other "issue" is that after Sewell and Slater in Round 1, there probably isn't another LT that could start Wk 1 and be decent without them being a "project" (sans Darrisaw who won't be around in Round 2). I know some may think Walker Little is someone who could start Wk 1, but I do think he's too much of a gamble in Round 2 given he hasn't taken a snap since 2018. They probably have to come to the realization that they will more likely have to draft a RT and move O'Neill over to LT going forward, something they flirted with before the 2020 regular season. The obvious pick here given the tape and testing #'s is Samuel Cosmi out of Texas - that 4.39 short shuttle # really stands out among the entire OT class, similar to how Ezra had the lowest 20-yard shuttle in 2020 and O'Neill had one of the best in 2018. I don't think Cosmi makes it very far in Round 2 (and someone like KC could theoretically take him at the back-end of Rd 1) and similarly for Radunz - I think he gets snatched up at the very least by the time the Chargers select at #47. If Washington doesn't go OL in Round 1, there's a strong possibility they go OL in Round 2 so before they pick at #51, the Vike trade-up with Miami at #50 - the Rich Hill model has this as 24 pts and the Vikes 4th Rd selection at #125 is 23 pts; plus the 'Phins don't currently have a selection in Round 5 and they've already made a Round 2 selection at #36 so they probably wouldn't mind dropping 9 spots to pick up a 4th rounder.
#50 - Vikes select OT Brady Christensen, BYU
With Cosmi and Radunz off the board by the mid-2nd, the Vikes probably can't afford to sit and wait for someone to drop to the back-end of Round 2 like they did in 2018 w/ O'Neill and last year in Ezra. Besides, they have the Day 3 draft capital to move up and secure someone they like, and I do believe they like Christensen after his Pro Day. The Vikes look for really positive short-shuttle times (4.46 and under) for lateral movement ability, strong broad jumps numbers (indication of lower-body strength) and arm length (at least 33 1/4 arms) to get their hands on DE's first to laterally "move" them outside and away. Outside of Slater (4.45) and Cosmi (4.39), Christensen's 4.52 short-shuttle is the next best time in this range of OT's (Northern Iowa's Spencer Brown had a 4.40 but he's more of a "project" and not ready for Year 1 snaps). If you combine that with his broad jump score of 10'4" (only OT I can see from Brugler's "Beast" guide who had a score of more than 10'), they will resonate with the Vikings scouting/coaching/front office staff. The problem is his arm length - at 32 1/4, that would probably be the shortest arms the Vikings would have drafted for an OT position in the Zimmer era, which is why I think the Vikes probably have him compete for the RT1 job w/ Hill/Udoh while O'Neill slides over to LT. By the mid-point of the 2021 season, I think you're likely to see a OL of O'Neill-Cole-Bradbury-Cleveland-Christensen. The other possibility is that he gets kicked inside to LG with those arms - with his 30 reps in the bench press and his strong broad jump score, perhaps a move inside is more likely, and the OL could look like O'Neill-Christensen-Bradbury-Cleveland-Udoh/Hill. The main point here with this is: they miss on Sewell/Slater in Round 1 to solve the LT issue, I won't believe they'll trade for Orlando Brown Jr until I see it (due to scheme fit) and after a run on "athletic" OT's in Round 2, they'll have to move-up to secure the next best one in Christensen. If you're asking, "hey, if they move Christensen inside to OG, they not just go with a strong IOL prospect with great athletic testing #'s in Rd 2", and the answer is that outside of C Creed Humphrey, no one in this range has the type of athletic testing #'s that Christensen has. Although Trey Smith, Wyatt Davis and Aaron Banks fall in this range, the just aren't scheme fits for the Vikes ZBS and just like I mentioned with Orlando Brown Jr, "I'll believe it when I actually see it" when it comes to drafting lesser-athletic OL prospects. The other thing to note here is Christensen's age - he's 24 and would probably be the oldest Viking OL prospect they've drafted in the Zimmer era. I know some teams - like Pittsburgh - won't consider "older" prospects in the early rounds, but athleticism wins out.
So after the ends of Rounds 1 & 2, there is a disappointment that the Vikes didn't secure their LT with either Sewell or Slater or the RT with the strongest testing #'s in Cosmi, but they come away with a younger Danielle Hunter prospect in Oweh and either a RT or starting LG in Christensen. Some fans might compare this to 2018 when we came away with Hughes and O'Neill in Rounds 1 & 2 and were left with an underwhelmed feeling - hey, I did say this was "realistic", right?
Vikings have the following picks remaining:
Round 3: #78, #90
Round 4: #119, #132 (from CLE), #134, #143
Round 5: #157, #168
Round 6: #199
Round 3
At the start of Round 3 and with the Vikings never double-dipping along the OL this early, I think they probably turn their attention to BPA with CB's. That being said, there is one prospect who's athletic testing #'s really, really stand out among his peers this draft season - Ohio St. LB Baron Browning. At his Pro Day, Browning tested as the 5th-most athletic LB to enter the NFL since 1987, per the RAS system. He had 93rd-or-better-percentile showings in the 40 (4.56), 3-cone (6.78), vertical (40") and broad jump (10'10"). Browning also took part in defensive line drills that day and Brugler had this to say in his "Beast" guide, "He projects best as a SAM linebacker or designated pass rusher with down-the-road starting potential". With 2021 probably being Barr's last year in 2021 and Dye not really looking like a SAM after his rookie year, I honestly think the Vikes are too tempted to take Browning with those athletic testing #'s if he's on the board at the start of Round 3 (Brugler has him in Round 3 and #91 overall, so it's possible, although many on TheDraftNetwork have him going in Round 1).
Trade-Up with Cincinnati to #69
Cincinnati Receives #78, #134 (Rd 4)
The key here to possibly get ahead of Denver at #71 who does have LB as a need heading into the Draft. If they don't go Parsons in Round 1 and if they don't address it in Round 2, they probably have their eyes on Browning at #71. Cincy isn't exactly competing for a Super Bowl in 2021 and probably wouldn't mind accumulating another Round 4 pick to drop 9 spots in Round 3. The Rich Hill trade model has this jump at 12 total points and even though the Vikes pick at #134 is worth 18 pts, they need to pay a "premium" to jump to a Top 5 spot here.
#69 - Vikes select LB Baron Browning, Ohio State
This pick serves a few purposes: 1) very athletic player who at least will play a key ST role in 2021 and possibly come off the edge in all-out blitz packages, 2) provide LB depth beyond Barr/Kendricks/Vigil/Dye in 2021 and 3) serve as an understudy to Barr in 2021 in the SAM role and take over in 2022+, continually saving cap dollars from paying market price for a starting SAM LB in 2022 and keeping the premium cap dollars on defense with others on defense (ie, we can't afford two $10m+ contracts in the LB position going forward). It's true that Browning doesn't have the strongest PFF coverage grades, but he won't get starting snaps in Year 1 anyway and has Year 1 to learn the complications of the SAM role in Zimmer's system; plus, Browning fits the mold of what Zimmer looks for in his SAM LB's (minus the 6'5" frame Barr has) - all the athletic tools to play with with a knack for getting after the QB. Browning continually improved each year at Ohio St, even in a relatively loaded LB room during his time there.
#90 - Trade-Down with New Orleans to #98
Minnesota receives #98, #218 (Rd 6) & 2022 5th Rd pick
At this point, all the athletic CB's have been scooped up and even though Rick might try to kick the tires on moving-up for a DT like Daviyon Nixon or Milton Williams, just like in 2020, I think they'll hold pat and try to extract a bit of Day 3 "value" (as they see it). I'm of the mindset that Mills/Trask/Mond won't be taken in Round 2 and all three are available in Round 3, and ever since I watched Trask during the 2020 season I could see him fitting in with Sean Payton and the Saints. If they don't make a move for him at the end of Round 2, I think they do here in Round 3 and move up to get him. The Rich Hill model has this jump up worth just 7 pts, but the Saints don't have much Day 3 capital - only a Round 4 pick worth 19 pts and their remaining Round 6/7 picks worth a total of 6 pts. I do know the Saints traded away their Day 3 to the Vikings in 2020, that was when they were "going for it" with Brees one last time, so they hold-off on trading away everything on Day 3 and instead give up a future 2022 5th Rd pick (worth 9-10 pts) and their 2021 6th Rd pick worth 3 pits - a bit of a "premium" to pay for the Saints, but you always pay somewhat of a premium for trading up for a QB - even in Round 3.
#98 - Vikes select QB Davis Mills, Stanford
This is somewhat of a stretch, I know - the Vikings selecting a QB in the middle of a Draft? However, numerous articles lately seem to point at the Vikings really doing a bunch of "work" on QB's and since they haven't signed Mannion yet, I'm really thinking they are actually serious about upgrading their QB2 position (from an on-field perspective vs just game-prep perspective). Of the mid-Rd QB prospects, I think Mills is probably the closest to what the Vikings are looking for to backup Cousins compared to Trask & Mond; from Brugler's "Beast" guide: "A loose, well-built passer, Mills shows the ability to scan, operate from various platforms and throw with touch/anticipation. He is one of the best middle-of-the-field passers in the draft, but needs time to grow and eliminate the “what are you doing?” plays from his tape. Overall, Mills is still learning the throws he should and shouldn’t make, but he has size and mobility and delivers a very catchable ball with the field-reading skills to be a developmental NFL starter, although the health of his left knee is a strong concern." Obviously the Vikes have to ensure his knee checks out, but outside of that, I do think he would be the target if they go QB in the middle of the Draft. I've also mentioned this a bunch of times: after the next tier of Mond/Trask/Mills, I seriously don't see anyone beyond that in this QB class that is an obvious upgrade over Browning or Stanley so if the Vikes miss out on Mond/Trask/Mills, whichever QB they draft after that is basically drafting another Browning/Stanley. Yes, Newman and Book offer athleticism, but the Vikes don't value that in their offensive scheme right now and Mills actually showed some solid athleticism during his Stanford Pro Day.
Vikings have the following picks remaining:
Round 4: #119, #132 (from CLE), #143
Round 5: #157, #168
Round 6: #199, #218 (from NO)
Round 4
#119 - Vikes select WR Josh Palmer, Tennessee
After moving around all over the place on Day 1 & 2, this is the first time the Vikings actually stay-put at their initial draft selection. Palmer is actually a sneaky-good WR and I think could be a steal early on Day 3 in a strong WR class. While I would love D'Wayne Eskridge because of his return abilities, he's probably long gone by Day 3 and Palmer offers something the Vikings don't currently have outside of Jefferson: a field-stretching "Z" WR. Palmer's college stats don't tell the story because the Volunteers have had poor offenses/QB's during his entire career, but despite that, his 16.6-yard average depth of target was one of the highest in the country and was one of the only WR's to beat Alabama's Patrick Surtain vertically. But he's not just a deep threat - he showed his route-running prowess at the Senior Bowl in January. He's also a solid run-blocker on the outside, too. He would make the perfect compliment to Jefferson, Thielen, Bisi & Beebe.
#132 - Vikes select S James Wiggins, Cincinnati
Vikes stay put yet again here and take a highly athletic S prospect in Wiggins who won't last much longer and might not be here to begin with. He appeared on Bruce Feldman's "Freak List" for three straight years so he has the NFL chops from an athletic standpoint, but he's a strong tackler, has the necessary football IQ and has great character (from Brugler's "Beast" guide). Wiggins will get ST snaps early and be a depth piece with Metellus behind Harry & Xavier Woods in 2021, but he could be a more athletic Harrison (minus Harry's height) down the line.
#143 - Trade-Down with Atlanta to #148 (Rd 5)
Minnesota receives #148, #182 (Rd 6)
I'm not projecting anything major here for Atlanta - this is moreso Rick accumulating Day 3 picks and with Atlanta having back-to-back picks in Rd 6 at #182 and #183, they can afford to spend one to get into the back-end of Round 4 while the Vikes drop to the top-end of Round 5 - the Vikes get the first of the picks since they are dropping out of Round 4 to Round 5. The Rich Hill trade model only has this jump from Atlanta worth 2 pts and since the pick Minnesota is receiving is worth 6, Rick gets his perceived great "value".
Vikings have the following picks remaining:
Round 5: #148 (from ATL) #157, #168, #182 (from ATL)
Round 6: #199, #218 (from NO)
Round 5
#148 - Vikes select CB Darren Hall, San Diego State
I know I mentioned earlier that the Vikings would more than likely go CB earlier than this due to depth issues beyond 2021, but they went in different directions and circle back to CB at the top-end of Round 5 after trading out of bottom of Round 4. Hall is not the prototypical Zimmer CB from a physical "frame" perspective at only 5'11", but given the Vikes went with Hughes and Gladney early in 2018/2020, I don't think 5'11" is a deal-breaker anymore for Zimmer. Hall offers above-average athletic traits (the Vikes typically go more athleticism on Day 3), but per Brugler, "...his press-man skills are NFL ready and he offers the toughness, athleticism and ball skills that should translate to the pro game". He led the team in PD, INT's and a strong tackler in the open-field - checks nearly all the boxes with Zimmer.
#157 - Vikes select OL Royce Newman, Ole Miss
I know many Vikes fans have them taking Illinois IOL prospect Kendrick Green due to his natural fit for the Vikes ZBS, but he'll more than likely be gone in the 4th and I don't know how much value the Vikes place on OG/C prospects early in Day 3. Bradbury is here in 2021/2022, and Cole is here to backup Bradbury at C in 2021 so I'm unsure if they OG/C here - I think they go more OT/OG versatility and Newman fits that mold. Although his 20-yard shuttle doesn't fit the Vikes preference, all the profiles say his athleticism pops-off during film and Brugler mentioned he's more of a "get in the way" blocker than mauler which equates to ZBS. He is older (will be 24 as a rookie) and he's only had 22 starts, but he's durable (started every game last 2 seasons) and versatile (can play 3 positions and coaches say he can play OC, too).
#168 - Vikes select WR Dazz Newsome, North Carolina
I think it's possible the Vikings double-dip here with WR in back-to-back rounds to bring in a slot/return option to compete w/ Beebe for that spot. KJ Osborn was a complete bust in 2020 and won't be on the 53-man roster in 2021 so the Vikings take another bite out of the apple in 2021. The WR roster will be Jefferson-Thielen-Palmer-Newsome-Bisi-Chisena w/ Chisena practically ST-only at this point.
#182 - Trade-Down with Philadelphia to #189 (Rd 6)
Minnesota receives #189 (Rd 6), #224 (Rd 6), #240 (Rd 7)
Philly has three 6th Rd picks and two 7th Rd picks and Rick sees "value" in trading out of the bottom-end of the 5th to pick up a 7th. Vikings fans groan yet again as they've traded out of the bottom-end of the round for the 2nd round in a row.
Vikings have the following picks remaining:
Round 6: #189 (from PHI), #199, #218 (from NO)
Round 7: #240 (from PHI)
Round 6
#189 - Vikes select DT Jonathan Marshall, Arkansas
The Vikings are set at the starting DT position, and even though they are projecting Tomlinson to have some pass-rush ability, they still need to develop gap-shooters to penetrate during sub-packages. They have Lynch and Watts, but they'll take another bite of the apple with Marshall - who played all over the DL at Arkansas but projects as a 3T in the NFL. This is basically Armon Watts 2.0 as Brugler writes this, "Overall, Marshall flashes explosive movements and spurts of power, but you want to see it more consistently and he requires further coaching to streamline his talent. He projects as a draft-and-develop three-technique tackle."
#199 - Trade-Down with Tampa Bay to #217
Minnesota receives #217 (Rd 6), #251 (Rd 7), #259 (Rd 7)
Why you ask? Tampa is still in win-now mode and could care less about their two 7th Rd picks (they're at the back-end of Rd 7 no less) and Rick loves 'em because he doesn't have to get into bidding wars with PFA's after the Draft. He's collected 7th's the last two drafts and it just stands to reason he'll do it again in 2021. Besides, the Vikings will get back-to-back picks at #217 and #218 now with three picks in the 7th.
#217 - Vikes select TE John Bates, Boise St.
Bates is arguably the best run-blocking TE in the entire draft class and think Rhett Ellison/David Morgan with this pick. Per Brugler's "Beast" guide, he has an impressive track background, soft hands and has extensive ST snaps who will contribute on ST on Day 1. Sound exactly like a fit for the Vikings.
#218 - Vikes select RB Kene Nwangwu, Iowa St
At this point, you're looking at athletes that might make the roster or PS based on their athletic prowess. With that in mind, I think Nwangwu has a shot to take Abdullah's spot as RB3 / return specialist - Abdullah only signed for the vet min. He is an explosive athlete with an impressive track background. He is a very good kick returner with a 26.8 YPR avg (on 92 returns), 1 TD and holds the school record for his avg. He was behind David Montgomery and Breece Hall on the Iowa St RB depth chart, but he made the most of his touches with a 5.6 YPC avg. He has to develop blitz pickup and receiving skills but his home-run breakaway speed (ran a 4.31) and return ability could get him on the roster Abdullah.
Vikings have the following picks remaining:
Round 7: #240 (from PHI), #251 (from TB), #259 (from TB)
Round 7
#240 - Vikes select K Jose Borregales, Miami
Those who know my posts about drafting K's know that I don't advocate this, but in this situation with Rick collecting some fliers in the 7th to avoid bidding wars post-Draft and with Greg Joseph on just a vet min deal w/ virtually no guaranteed money, even I'll say "why not".
#251 - Vikes select CB Mark Gilbert, Duke
Really interesting prospect here: his uncle, Sean Gilbert, was a DL out of Pitt who was drafted in '92 and played 11 seasons in the NFL and his cousin is none other than Darrelle Revis. He started off really good in 2017 as one of the top Freshman CB's in the entire country with 21 PD and 6 INT's so his NFL prowess is there. The problem is that he was riddled with injuries in 2018, 2019 (missed entire season) and 2020. He has the athletic ability and on-field production (2017 only) to be very solid NFL CB, but his injury history probably as him as PFA for many teams, which is where Rick comes in to swoop him up to avoid getting into a bidding war after the Draft. He's actually worth gambling on to get into TC to see what he can do, IMO.
#259 - Vikes select OG Sam Cooper, Merrimack
The Vikings recently met with Cooper and Brugler actually has him right in this range in his "Beast" guide so why not. Brugler's conclusion probably means Rick is interested in the 7th to avoid any bidding with other teams post-Draft: "Overall, Cooper is an intriguing prospect with a limited resume against lower competition, but he has the lower-body flexibility and mindset to develop in a zone scheme."
Conclusion:
The tone of the entire 2021 Vikings draft will be set in Round 1: if they trade up for Sewell or Slater, then there's no way they get to this many picks and they probably end up with less than 10 unless Rick seriously trades back in the 3rd (if he has any left after trading up in the 1st). If they don't like what's on the board at #14, I do see Rick trading down for the best value to acquire Day 2 picks like I have and Cleveland does make a ton of sense if all 5 QB's are off the board. If Mac Jones is still on board at #14, then who knows. But if they end up trading back into the 20's in Round 1, I do see the tone of the rest of the Draft flowing this way - DE in Round 1 and then going back to OL in Round 2 and from there it's acquiring more Day 3 draft capital and moving all-around like previous years, and yes, 15 picks ties the 2020 draft for most ever. The thing I do like about this particular draft is I do think it would give the Vikes some solid depth in 2021 and beyond with players who could develop into solid starters. Congrats is you read this entire thing, too - I actually had a blast thinking through this and writing it up.
... and neither is this Chris guy.