What Does it Take to Win it all With a Non-HOF QB?
Apr 15, 2021 9:49:39 GMT -6
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Post by mikenessfan on Apr 15, 2021 9:49:39 GMT -6
I think if you separate the QB's performance in the postseason that year from their career #'s, you'll see a pattern emerge...
I'm taking away Dilfer, Johnson & Manning because it's obvious their defenses were "elite" level and the main reason those teams were in the Super Bowl....so here are Eli's, Flaco's & Foles' numbers career-wise vs. their performance in the postseason that year...
Eli Manning career #'s: 60.3% Cmp%, 241.6 avg YPG, 1.5 avg TD per game, 1.0 avg INT per game, 84.1 RATE
Eli Manning 2007 postseason #'s: 60.5% Cmp%, 213.5 avg YPG, 1.5 avg TD per game, 0.25 INT per game, 95.7 RATE
Eli Manning 2011 postseason #'s: 65.0 Cmp%, 304.8 avg YPG, 2.25 avg TD per game, 0.25 INT per game, 103.3 RATE
Joe Flacco career #'s: 61.7 Cmp%, 232.6 avg YPG, 1.3 avg TD per game, 0.8 avg INT per game, 84.1 RATE
Joe Flacco 2012 postseason #'s: 285.0 avg YPG, 2.75 avg TD per game, 0.0 avg INT per game, 117.2 RATE
Nick Foles career #'s: 62.3 Cmp%, 205.3 avg YPG, 1.2 avg TD per game, 0.6 avg INT per game, 87.1 RATE
Nick Foles 2017 postseason #'s: 72.6 Cmp%, 323.7 YPG, 2.0 avg TD per game, 0.3 INT per game, 115.7 RATE
As you can see, each QB had elevated stats above their career stats during those Super Bowl postseasons - even Eli's 2007 postseason where he threw for less YPG, he still threw less INT's on avg and his QB RATE climbed over 95.0 when was a career 84 QB RATE passer. Eli's 2011, Flacco's 2012 and Foles' 20117 postseasons were significantly better than their career #'s.
What this seems to say is that you need a QB who has at least a QB RATE of 84.1 who "catches fire" during the postseason. Kirk's career QB RATE is 97.1...
So, this does lend some credence to the Wilf's plan of just trying to make the playoffs and hopefully trying to "catch fire" during one of those postseason runs...although I will agree, it's probably much easier to make the playoffs each year with a HOF-caliber QB at the helm, but in the absence of one, getting there with a capable QB is the next best plan and that's where the Vikes are.
Yes your good not great qb has to get hot at the right time, if you make the playoffs in the first place. The plan boils down to "someday maybe we get lucky". Ownership was born lucky so I can see why waiting around for this mess to accidentally congeal into greatness is their approach.
Or you could do the work to try to identify a future HOF caliber guy, come up with a plan to develop him, and execute the bold and risky moves to get him. And then your coach who never got a trophy would finally win one. Congratulations Andy Reid!
This is how I think about this whole topic also. Great post.