Must get a 2nd rounder

Here’s the chart for this draft with the Vikings’ picks highlighted:




Want proof the chart gets used? Let’s look at a few examples of Spielman’s deals in the past.

Cordarrelle Patterson trade-up, 2013

Vikings receive: Pick 29 = 640 points

Patriots receive: Pick 52 (380 points), Pick 83 (175 points), Pick 102 (92 points), Pick 229 (1 point) = 648 points

Dalvin Cook trade-up, 2017

Vikings receive: Pick 41 = 490 points

Bengals receive: Pick 48 (420 points), Pick 128 (44 points) = 464 points

Trade back from Pick 25, 2020

Vikings receive: Pick 31 (600 points), Pick 117 (60 points), Pick 176 (19.4) = 679.4 points

49ers receive: Pick 25 = 720 points

There’s bound to be up to a 5% variance to account for where team’s picks actually land on the chart, so it’s rarely going to equal out perfectly, but the values tend to be quite even. The savvy GMs, often Spielman, will find ways to acquire late sixths or sevenths, even though they have little bearing on the actual point value.

With all this in mind, let’s examine how to think about the trade value chart when it comes to the Vikings’ approach in less than two weeks.

Identifying trade-down opportunities

The easiest way to acquire a second-round pick is via a trade-back in the first round — and it’s still not THAT easy. To get a realistic look, I ran a PFF Mock Draft to test the waters. At Pick 14, the board had gone like this:

1. QB Trevor Lawrence
2. QB Zach Wilson
3. QB Justin Fields
4. T Penei Sewell
5. WR Jaylen Waddle
6. T Rashawn Slater
7. WR Devonta Smith
8. QB Trey Lance
9. LB Micah Parsons
10. WR Ja’Marr Chase
11. CB Caleb Farley
12. QB Mac Jones
13. OL Alijah Vera-Tucker

The best player on the remaining board is TE Kyle Pitts. That’s the kind of playmaker that almost all 32 teams would covet, and he’s literally one of a kind in this draft. The top DLs are also available, whether it’s DT Christian Barmore or DEs Kwity Paye and Jayson Oweh. You’ve also got former Gophers WR Rashod Bateman, T Christian Darrisaw and CB Patrick Surtain II to choose from. So there’s about half a dozen desirable assets that might yield some trade calls.

What would need to happen for the Vikings to get a second-round pick and keep a first-round pick as well? They’ll need to be selective, since moving back just a couple picks isn’t going to get them into the second round.

Minnesota would probably need to find a trade partner willing to move up seven spots or more. Pick 14 is worth 1,100 points. Pick 20, belonging to Chicago, is worth 850 points, and the Bears’ second-round pick is worth 380.

Even if the Bears really wanted Pitts on their offense this year, Chicago would be giving up 1,230 and getting back only 1,100 — plus it’s a division rival, so the Vikings can’t expect a bargain.

More feasible options start with Pick 21 and the Colts. Indianapolis’s first-round pick is worth 800. Their second is worth 360. The 1,160 points is within the margin of error that this might fly, although with no third-round pick the Colts may not be eager to part with a second-rounder.

The best trade partners will have extra picks later in the draft as insurance, and/or they’ll be a good team looking for an important piece to complete their roster. Tennessee, for example, has an extra third-round pick, New Orleans has an extra third, and Cleveland has an extra third and an extra fourth. All were playoff teams last year.

But no team looks like a better trade partner on paper than the Jacksonville Jaguars, probably the biggest player in this draft. They have two firsts, two seconds, one third, two fourths and two fifths. Their late first-round pick at No. 25 (720 points), packaged with their late second-round pick at No. 45 (450 points) would equal out to 1,170 points (three guesses where the Jaguars got that 45th pick). If the 70-point difference was a dealbreaker, the Vikings could toss in any of their four fourth-round picks to settle up the transaction.

Is a trade-up too ambitious?

The less desirable path is to trade up into the second round. For a pick-hoarder like Spielman, it might be too much to bear if he has to part with the number of assets it’ll take. Put on your math hats for a moment.

To move into the middle of the second round, the Vikings would have to pay around 400-450 points on the trade value chart. That’s roughly equivalent to:

- Both thirds and their earliest fourth (396 points)

- Their early third, all four fourths and their late fifth (398.6 points)

That’s a tall order and would rob Spielman of the ability to shift around on Day 3, where moving up and down becomes exponentially easier. Parting with all of their third-round picks or all of their fourth-round picks is probably a non-starter.

Now let’s say there’s a valuable prospect falling late into the second round, things open up a bit more. Picks 60-64 are worth between 270-300 points. That’s roughly equivalent to:

- Their early third and two late fourths (273.5 points)

- Their late third, two early fourths and a late fifth (265.6 points)

Base case for Spielman is finding a trade partner willing to accept future currency. If another team will take a 2022 third-round pick, that suddenly opens the door for the Vikings to lose only one third-round pick this year, and probably a late-rounder like a fifth since future picks are a little more unpredictable.

Another option would be trading slightly back from No. 14 to acquire extra thirds and fourths, then using those in a trade-up package.

And of course, the Vikings could always dangle a player and package him with a pick or two. There aren’t, however, too many assets that Minnesota would seemingly be willing to lose without harming this year’s roster. Maybe someone like Mike Hughes? (And he’s not worth very all that much.) It’s a limited pool of options.

The trade value chart isn’t very receptive to a Vikings trade-up into the coveted second round. Minnesota will have to likely have to charm a suitor into moving up to No. 14 if they want a shot at some of the tantalizing second-round talent.