The 2020-21 Deep Ball Project

What you see from the title is what you get. If you’re looking for a comprehensive study about screen passes then I apologize, but this is not for you. Instead, we’re here to sing the hymnal praises presented by deep passes and the quarterbacks that launch them.

Now what constitutes as a deep pass? That’s a tricky riddle to solve becaue it seems like our methods are different from others. Pro Football Focus constitutes throws of 20+ yards as a deep pass, while NFL play by play constitutes throws of 16+ yards as a deep pass. For the sake of The Deep Ball Project, we’re going with throws of 21+ yards.

In other words, if the rankings look different than PFF’s, this is probably why.

But The Deep Ball Project doesn’t just measure throws of 21+ yards from the line of scrimmage. In this lab the study includes passes of 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40, and 41+ yards as distance splits. Areas of the field are represented by Left, Middle, and Right, basic stuff. Formations are sponsored by Under Center and Shotgun, and you also have the Clean and Pressure stats (plus the Interior/Edge Pressure sub stats) to measure a QB’s stats with or without a defender in his wheelhouse. Throws from Inside and Outside The Pocket are represented, and so are Open and Tight Window throws.

That was a lot of information for one paragraph to comprehend, so to make things easier let’s look at how all the stats compile onto a chart. The chart below is of an actual quarterback studied, the No. 1 deep passer of this year’s study, but with his name erased as to not spoil who he is.



All the basic raw stats are here, from completions, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. In the black boxes are the Accuracy Percentage numbers. Accuracy Percentage is the main focus of The Deep Ball Project, taking into account every accurate throw regardless of if it was caught or if the receiver developed a drinking problem mid play and couldn’t snag the pass in. Next to those numbers are each quarterback’s rankings out of 34 quarterbacks charted for this year’s study. For example, (1) means a quarterback finished as the most accurate in that field, and so on.

Below these you may have noticed Even More Throwing Stats. These include Air Yards, Yards After the Catch (YAC), Passes Defensed (includes interceptions and breakups), and Dropped Interceptions. Air Yards have been modified this year to include yards behind the line of scrimmage.

The two key stats to look at are Accurate Completions and Inaccurate Completions. This quarterback had 12 Accurate Incompletions, which is to say he threw 12 accurate passes that were not caught by his receivers. Adjacent to that is Inaccurate Completions, where the receiver makes an unnecessary adjustment on his route for the ball. Quarterbacks generally have 2-3 of these, though some have tested my patience and have broken this barrier.

Now, what qualifies as an Accurate Incompletion? Drops (of course), perfect throws where the defender gets a hand in at the catch point, certain jump balls that weren’t reeled in, and every Hail Mary that makes it to the end zone.

Finally (and as always), QB-WR miscommunications, plays offset by penalties, throws where the ball or receiver did not reach at least 21 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and throws where the quarterback was hit before he could get a clean pass off did not qualify for deep pass charting. This is done to make this a straightforward study about deep accuracy and everything that goes on with it.

Finally x2, No, Ryan Fitzpatrick did not qualify for deep pass charting. I know, I’m sorry, but he only threw 13 attempts of 21+ yards. I don’t have an official qualifying number, though if you have thrown about 18 deep passes, you most likely qualify.

Now, with this in mind, let’s begin The Deep Ball Project...

11. Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings)




Each season with the Vikings, Kirk Cousins is on the outside looking in when it comes to the top 10 in deep accuracy. In Washington his deep passing was by no means this good, yet when he travelled to the land of a thousand lakes a different story occurred.

Cousins finished with the highest accuracy percentage of any quarterback that came away with no dropped interceptions, which should tell you what the rest of the top 10 will look like. He was incredible throwing to his left, finished No. 1 in that area as well as second under center and fourth to open receivers. My unproven theory of quarterbacks playing better under pressure with the Vikings continues to grow, as he finished inside the top 10 under pressure, interior pressure, and edge pressure.

Outside of the interceptions, there isn’t a lot to complain about. Even if you’re not a fan of Cousins, the growth he’s taken as a passer after looking atrocious in the first have of 2015 is admirable. I still think the Vikings can do better at the position, but at least from a deep accuracy perspective it’s inches from hitting the top 10

Longest Pass Completion: 48 air yards, 0 YAC (Week 11 vs. DAL, 9:44 4th Quarter)

Best Deep Throw: Week 13 vs. JAX (11:41 3rd Quarter)



Great placement to Justin Jefferson down the sideline. This one went for 40 yards past the line of scrimmage. 41 air yards, 6 YAC.