Why two-high defenses are poised to take over the NFL
Mar 5, 2021 17:21:48 GMT -6
comet52 likes this
Post by Uncle on Mar 5, 2021 17:21:48 GMT -6
Really solid article from PFF today explaining that "two-high" (or 2-deep safeties) defenses have started to become the "favored" defensive strategy in the NFL to counter both the Mahomes-style air-raid offenses and the spread-option college stuff that made its way to the NFL, too - link.
Some solid takes from the article:
As noted, fixing your problems with an entirely new structure is hard work — it takes thinking outside the box. And yet, 2020 was the first year we saw real change, and 2021 could be the year that everyone decides they’ve had enough of the single-high world.
PFF has charted the defensive looks on every play of every game since 2014, and the 2020 season was the first time defenses lined up in a pre-snap middle-of-the-field-closed look on less than 50% of first- and second-down snaps.
In all, 48.6% of all early-down snaps were played with that middle-of-the-field closed look, down from 53.9% in 2018 and 57.6% in 2019. And the important thing to know about these numbers is who is pulling the average down under 50%.
The Los Angeles Rams led the NFL in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play this regular season and played the fewest early-down pre-snap closed looks — only 11% of their early-down snaps were in a pre-snap closed look. For reference, the 2015 Seahawks did this 75% of the time.
Of course, some teams played a low percentage of snaps in this look before the 2020 Rams came along, but the schemes that spread throughout the league are the ones that dominate statistically. That’s what the Rams did in 2020 with new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, who landed a head-coaching job with the Los Angeles Chargers after just one year of coordinator experience.
If the shift does end up being to quarters, we will see offenses respond with different routes. In 2020, we saw teams target different routes based on whether the defense ended up in a post-snap closed or open coverage. We saw the percentage of targeted deep crossing routes double when going from two-high to single-high — offenses targeted these routes around 3% of the time against two-high and 6% of the time against single-high. Over-routes are the 14th-most targeted route against two-high and the sixth-most targeted route against one-high.
Quarters could be an answer. After all, we saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers eliminate the potent Kansas City Chiefs offense by playing quarters variants in Super Bowl 55. Last season, we also saw the highest number of quarters-coverage snaps against passing plays since we began charting in 2014. So, it’s an excellent place to start.
The other answer is staying in a two-high look long enough and then spinning a safety down after the snap as a robber but still playing either Cover 1 or Cover 3. These types of coverages give the defense layers.
In the copycat league that is the NFL, we can easily see an explosion of these styles of defense because of the success of the Fangios and Staleys of the world. This could be the first year of many in succession that the league falls under 50% of early-down pre-snap closed-look defenses. It’s going to force offenses to adapt, and the cycle will continue.
Some solid takes from the article:
As noted, fixing your problems with an entirely new structure is hard work — it takes thinking outside the box. And yet, 2020 was the first year we saw real change, and 2021 could be the year that everyone decides they’ve had enough of the single-high world.
PFF has charted the defensive looks on every play of every game since 2014, and the 2020 season was the first time defenses lined up in a pre-snap middle-of-the-field-closed look on less than 50% of first- and second-down snaps.
In all, 48.6% of all early-down snaps were played with that middle-of-the-field closed look, down from 53.9% in 2018 and 57.6% in 2019. And the important thing to know about these numbers is who is pulling the average down under 50%.
The Los Angeles Rams led the NFL in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play this regular season and played the fewest early-down pre-snap closed looks — only 11% of their early-down snaps were in a pre-snap closed look. For reference, the 2015 Seahawks did this 75% of the time.
Of course, some teams played a low percentage of snaps in this look before the 2020 Rams came along, but the schemes that spread throughout the league are the ones that dominate statistically. That’s what the Rams did in 2020 with new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, who landed a head-coaching job with the Los Angeles Chargers after just one year of coordinator experience.
If the shift does end up being to quarters, we will see offenses respond with different routes. In 2020, we saw teams target different routes based on whether the defense ended up in a post-snap closed or open coverage. We saw the percentage of targeted deep crossing routes double when going from two-high to single-high — offenses targeted these routes around 3% of the time against two-high and 6% of the time against single-high. Over-routes are the 14th-most targeted route against two-high and the sixth-most targeted route against one-high.
Quarters could be an answer. After all, we saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers eliminate the potent Kansas City Chiefs offense by playing quarters variants in Super Bowl 55. Last season, we also saw the highest number of quarters-coverage snaps against passing plays since we began charting in 2014. So, it’s an excellent place to start.
The other answer is staying in a two-high look long enough and then spinning a safety down after the snap as a robber but still playing either Cover 1 or Cover 3. These types of coverages give the defense layers.
In the copycat league that is the NFL, we can easily see an explosion of these styles of defense because of the success of the Fangios and Staleys of the world. This could be the first year of many in succession that the league falls under 50% of early-down pre-snap closed-look defenses. It’s going to force offenses to adapt, and the cycle will continue.
... and neither is this Chris guy.