2021 NFL Draft QB Class

Quarterback prospects fuel the NFL Draft conversations more than any other position each year and that is especially true this cycle with five quarterbacks with first-round potential, including several in the top 10.

There is no mystery at the top with Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence projected to be the clear No. 1 pick. But there is certainly debate around the league regarding the order of the next four quarterbacks. Over the next two months, the interview process will give teams a better idea of the mental development of these quarterbacks and ultimately determine where they will land.

The interviews will present new information that could alter these rankings before April, but right now, here are The Athletic’s quarterback rankings.

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (6-6, 213 pounds)

Cartersville, Ga. (Cartersville); Age: 21.56

A three-year starter at Clemson, Lawrence had full command of the offense in offensive coordinator Tony Elliott’s shotgun spread scheme, setting protections and running the show. After becoming the starter as a freshman, he went 34-2 in his 36 starts for the Tigers, including three straight playoff appearances (and the 2018 national title), finishing his career No. 3 in passing yards (10,098; 65 yards behind Deshaun Watson) and tied with Watson for No. 2 in passing touchdowns (90).

From his feet to his eyes to his delivery, Lawrence is quick in everything he does (too fast at times), playing with composed urgency and the body type that should hold up to the violence of an NFL season. The Clemson “quick game” offense helped simplify things for him and his consistency needs continued development, but he is an accurate passer with the creativity and decision-making to execute at a high level. Overall, Lawrence is a generational talent with the physical (size, athleticism, arm talent) and mental (processing speed, intangibles) traits to become one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, projecting as the clear No. 1 player in the class and an immediate, scheme-diverse starter.

2. Zach Wilson, BYU (6-2, 212 pounds)

Draper, Utah (Corner Canyon); Age: 21.74

A three-year starter at BYU, Wilson was a productive starter in former offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes’ RPO-based scheme, doing a little bit of everything, including traditional-I, five-wide and option plays. Although the competition was underwhelming, he produced dynamic tape in 2020 and broke Steve Young’s BYU record for single-season completion percentage (73.5), accounting for 43 total touchdowns.

A quick-minded player, Wilson competes with the creativity and ball-handling skills to make plays as a passer, showing a natural feel for placement and touch. While he can be quick to bail and allow his mechanics to break down, he thrives moving the pocket and improvising. Overall, Wilson doesn’t have an ideal body type, but his natural accuracy, off-platform skills and ability to make great spontaneous decisions translate to any level of football, projecting as the No. 2 quarterback in the draft class and an immediate NFL starter.

All-22 Takeaway: When I was done studying Wilson’s 2020 tape, I flagged a few dozen plays that stood out for various reasons, but this play stuck with me as one of my favorites. Wilson senses pressure and looks to buy time by moving to his right without dropping his eyes. He locates his crossing receiver and uses his whip of an arm to deliver an almost 30-yard strike on the move with accuracy and zip. Wilson’s ability to execute off-platform and make quick, spontaneous decisions are the main reasons I am high on his next-level potential. And he shows both on this play.

3. Justin Fields, Ohio State (6-3, 218 pounds)

Kennesaw, Ga. (Harrison); Age: 22.15

A two-year starter at Ohio State, Fields was one of college football’s best players the last two seasons in head coach Ryan Day’s multiple-spread offense. With Jake Fromm blocking him at Georgia, he transferred to Columbus in 2019 and needed only 21 games to reach No. 2 in Ohio State history in career passing touchdowns (67), twice earning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors.

Fields has had the spotlight on him for a long time and he hasn’t wilted, displaying the confidence and competitive toughness that teammates rally behind. He shows excellent tempo when the play is on schedule, but he must speed up his target-to-target progression reads and improve his urgency when the initial target is taken away. Overall, Fields’ decision-making is more methodical than spontaneous, but he has high-ceiling traits with his athleticism, accuracy and intangibles. He projects as a future NFL starter if he can quicken his reads and process.

All-22 Takeaway: This type of play is where Fields is at his best. With Alabama in a cover-1 look, the play is designed to go to the slot receiver, who is running a corner route away from coverage. With the outside receiver settling in the flat, an out-breaking route from the inside receiver is the best way to beat cover-1 if the throw is accurate. And Fields is on point with this pass, firing a strike (from the opposite hash) away from the defensive back and allowing his receiver to make an athletic play on the football. When the preferred read is there and the play is on schedule, Fields is confident and accurate in his delivery and execution.

4. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (6-3, 225 pounds)

Marshall, Minn. (Marshall); Age: 20.97

A one-year starter at North Dakota State, Lance was a dual-threat quarterback in the Bison’s read-based scheme, following in the footsteps of Easton Stick and Carson Wentz, who were both NFL draft picks. A late bloomer at the high school level, Lance had one of the most impressive statistical seasons in college football history in 2019 (42 total touchdowns, zero interceptions), but that is the only full season on his 17-start (all vs. FCS competition) college resume.

A unique talent, Lance has the athleticism, arm talent and mental makeup to be a playmaker. While he takes care of the football, there were too many one-read-and-run plays on film and NDSU relied on the run game as the bread-and-butter of its offense. (In his 17 career starts, Lance averaged 18.6 pass attempts per game while the team averaged 45 rush attempts.) Overall, Lance is an unprecedented evaluation and will require time as he adjusts to the speed and complexities of the NFL, but his physical traits, poise and decision-making are a rare package for his age and meager experience. He projects as a high-ceiling developmental passer.

5. Mac Jones, Alabama (6-3, 217 pounds)

Jacksonville, Fla. (The Bolles School); Age: 22.65

A one-year starter at Alabama, Jones was a prolific passer in former offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian’s spread scheme. After backing up Tua Tagovailoa in 2019, Jones won the starting job in 2020 and led Alabama to the national championship. He set a new NCAA single-season record for completion percentage (77.4 percent) and became the first player in school history to reach 4,500 passing yards in a season.

Jones is an especially challenging evaluation because he played in a near-perfect situation in Tuscaloosa with an elite offensive line, running game, pass catchers and play calling. That makes it tough to evaluate him independent of his surroundings. However, he still had to make the reads and the throws, and he displayed advanced-level poise and anticipation. Overall, Jones doesn’t have ideal mobility or arm talent and doesn’t offer any explosive elements to his game, but he is smart, efficient and doesn’t make mistakes, projecting as a high-floor, low-ceiling NFL starter.

All-22 Takeaway: There is no question that Jones benefited from his supporting cast at Alabama. But his tape is stocked with throws into tight coverage that required rhythm and accuracy to complete. On this red zone play versus Georgia, Jones lofts a ball perfectly into tight coverage where DeVonta Smith can go get it over talented Bulldogs corner Eric Stokes. If the placement is slightly off, the pass is either broken up by Stokes or the throw will take the receiver out of bounds. Smith obviously deserves a ton of credit here, but so does the quarterback. The timing and execution of this play also illustrate the impressive chemistry between these two players.

6. Davis Mills, Stanford (6-4, 225 pounds)

Duluth, Ga. (Greater Atlanta Christian); Age: 22.52

A two-year starter at Stanford, Mills was a starter in offensive coordinator Tavita Pritchard’s pro-style scheme, splitting his snaps from under center and from the shotgun. The No. 1 quarterback in the 2017 recruiting class (ahead of Tua Tagovailoa), his college career was interrupted by a left knee injury from high school and then a COVID-shortened 2020 season. He finished with basically one full year of starting experience.

A loose, well-built passer, Mills shows the ability to scan, operate from various platforms and throw with touch/anticipation. He is one of the best middle-of-the-field passers in the draft, but he needs time to grow and eliminate the “what are you doing?” plays from his tape. Overall, Mills is still learning the throws he should and shouldn’t make, but he has size and mobility and delivers a very catchable ball with the field-reading skills to develop into an NFL backup (and possibly more), although the health of his left knee is a strong concern.

7. Kyle Trask, Florida (6-4, 236 pounds)

Manvel, Texas (Manvel); Age: 23.15

A two-year starter at Florida, Trask showed tremendous knowledge within head coach Dan Mullen’s scheme, playing mostly out of the shotgun. Despite not starting a game between his final three years of high school (2013-15) and first three years of college (2016-18), he was extremely productive the past two seasons, leading the FBS in passing yards (4,283) and touchdown passes (43) in 2020 (when he became the first player in SEC history with at least four touchdown passes in six straight games).

Trask understands where to go with the football and is at his best when he can loft throws into the void of the defense. However, his accuracy can’t be described as pinpoint, his lackluster mobility shines bright against pressure and there is a noticeable lack of zip on throws when he doesn’t step into them or use proper hip torque. Overall, Trask is a well-built, smart and tough competitor with natural touch as a passer, but his inconsistent mechanics and below-average mobility cap his ceiling as an NFL quarterback, projecting as a carbon copy of Mason Rudolph.

All-22 Takeaway: The best parts of Trask’s game are his feel for where to go with the football and his natural touch as a passer. On this play against Texas A&M, he knows he has Kadarius Toney lined up on an island versus the safety, an obvious mismatch on the slot vertical route. Even before the receiver gains separation, Trask knew where he was going and lofts a perfect ball out in front of his target, allowing Toney to track and finish in stride for six points.

8. Ian Book, Notre Dame (6-0, 210 pounds)

El Dorado Hills, Calif. (Oak Ridge); Age: 23.08

A three-year starter at Notre Dame, Book had his most efficient season as a senior in offensive coordinator Tommy Rees’ scheme. He showed noticeable growth in his final campaign. A two-time team captain, he posted a 30-5 career record (15-0 at home) and leaves South Bend No. 2 (behind Brady Quinn) in almost every passing category, including passing yards (8,948) and passing touchdowns (72).

Although undersized, Book is a gutsy dual-threat passer with quick feet and natural throwing skills on the move. From the pocket, he is hesitant with his reads and at his best on three-step drops, calling for quick timing throws. Overall, Book needs to improve his trigger and touch as a pocket passer, but he is an instinctive, athletic play extender and a proven winner, projecting as an NFL reserve capable of locking down a backup job.

9. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (6-3, 205 pounds)

San Antonio, Texas (IMG Academy); Age: 21.85

A four-year starter at Texas A&M, Mond spent one season in Kevin Sumlin’s offense before head coach Jimbo Fisher brought his spread, pro-style scheme to College Station. He leaves as the school’s all-time leader in passing yards (9,661), completions (801), attempts (1,358), passing touchdowns (71) and total offense (11,269).

Mond has impressive highlights with his ability to rip off beautiful throws downfield or extend plays with his legs. However, his lowlights are red flags, as he stays laser-locked on his targets and struggles to pick up pressures. Overall, Mond is in the Colin Kaepernick mold with his lean, angular frame, strong arm and long-striding athleticism, but his ball placement, timing and decision-making lack consistency. He projects as a late-round developmental prospect.

10. Jamie Newman, Georgia/Wake Forest (6-3, 235 pounds)

Graham, N.C. (Graham); Age: 23.41

A one-year starter at Wake Forest, Newman was productive in offensive coordinator Warren Ruggiero’s shotgun, zone-read scheme. After finishing second in the ACC in total offense per game (286.8) and total scores (32) in 2019, he grad-transferred to Georgia for his final season but chose to opt out prior to the 2020 season. He never took a snap for the Bulldogs.

Although NFL scouts still have lingering questions, he competes with the same cool demeanor regardless of scoreboard or situation. He has a track record of avoiding bad decisions and making plays when they present themselves, but he wasn’t a consistent creator on tape. Overall, Newman is a sturdy, mobile and confident quarterback, but his undeveloped reads and pocket presence complicate his NFL evaluation, which lowers his floor as a prospect (his ceiling is probably a Jacoby Brissett-style of passer).