Post by Purple Pain on Jan 22, 2021 5:42:54 GMT -6
Purple Insider: Five recent teams the Vikings could model themselves after
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/five-recent-teams-the-vikings-could
As the Minnesota Vikings sit home and watch championship weekend for the third year in a row, the question they’ll be asking is: “How do we get back there?”
Over the past five years, there have been a number of teams that landed in the Vikings’ spot, in the middle of a rebuild/retooling with a fair amount of talent but a flawed roster. Let’s have a look at how five of them approached the similar circumstances and how it worked out…
2016 Atlanta Falcons
Similarities:
— In 2016, Atlanta was coming off an 8-8 season. They possessed an offense that was led by a proven veteran quarterback who was surrounded by terrific weapons including Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel and two quality tight ends in Jacob Tamme and Austin Hooper. Atlanta also had a quality running back duo in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.
The Vikings are most of the way there with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook and Irv Smith Jr.
— The 2016 Falcons had an imperfect offensive line, which ranked 13th by PFF and allowed Matt Ryan to get sacked 37 times but the Falcons leaned into an explosive passing game, ranking No. 1 in net yards per pass attempt, third in yards and second in passing touchdowns.
The Vikings would need improvement on the O-line to reach average but they have solidified tackles and two top-pick interior linemen. They ranked sixth in net yards per pass attempt.
— Ryan had a career year and won MVP of the league, in part due to Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system that saw Ryan lead the NFL in play-action percentage.
Cousins has had two career years in similar play-action system and likewise rose to a starting role in DC playing under Shanahan.
— Atlanta’s defense, run by a defensive-minded head coach, had some impressive playmakers but some major holes too. They finished 27th in points allowed.
The Vikings are coming off a year in which they were 29th in points allowed.
Why the Vikings would follow their model:
This route would require the Vikings deciding to push the gas pedal down on Kirk Cousins and see how fast the car will go. That would mean adding to the offensive side in the offseason.
Leading up to 2016, the Falcons signed star center Alex Mack to a five-year, $45 million deal. They also brought in Taylor Gabriel from Cleveland and he produced over 500 yards in a “playmaker” role.
The Falcons went all-in on creating explosive plays. In ‘16, Ryan was the No. 1 deep passer in the NFL with a 136.1 rating throwing beyond 20 yards (per PFF). Coincidentally, Cousins tied for the NFL lead in 2016 with 39 throws over 20 yards and had the fourth highest QB rating on deep throws.
Atlanta was especially great at throwing on first down. Ryan averaged 10.7 yards per pass attempt on first down. Cousins wasn’t that far away in 2020, gaining 9.3 YPA on first down.
While Ryan is a shade more talented than Cousins, the 2016 Falcons style offense isn’t beyond reach for Cousins or the Vikings. They already have the hard parts done with a deep passing QB, unstoppable receiver and running back who can play the role of a closer like Freeman did for Atlanta. (Side note: The Falcons also completed more than 80 passes to running backs in 2016).
The reason it makes sense is because A) it’s attainable B) the Vikings’ defense might not make a massive improvement next year without so much investment that they wouldn’t be able to get better on offense.
It also stands to reason because getting to the top five in the NFL in passing efficiency is a prerequisite for reaching the Super Bowl. Having an elite defense isn’t.
2017 Kansas City Chiefs
Similarities:
— Kansas City had a solid passing game in 2017, ranking sixth in net yards per attempt and seventh in yards behind a solid quarterback in Alex Smith. Kansas City was also terrific at running the ball behind Kareem Hunt and had two terrific weapons in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
The Vikings were similar, ranking sixth in net yards per attempt and 14th in yards. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen took up the vast majority of targets.
— The Chiefs had a flawed defense that played bend-don’t-break, allowing the 28th most yards but only 15th most points.
If the Vikings had been healthy in 2020, they probably would have been similar considering how many young players would have been mixing in.
— The Chiefs went 10-6 and lost in the first round of the playoffs.
The Vikings had a 2019 season in which they went 10-6 and lost in the second round.
— Before the 2017 season, Kansas City draft Patrick Mahomes in the first round despite having a quarterback who was considered in the ballpark of the top 10
Why the Vikings would follow their model:
Like Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins is a very good but expensive quarterback with a large sample size of getting his teams to the middle of the pack or a little above. Smith had a better track record than Cousins (including leading the league in rating in 2017) but the Chiefs still moved on after 2017, trading him to Washington.
The Vikings could follow their path by drafting a quarterback and playing Cousins for one more season while they allow his successor to sit on the bench and develop. When that rookie does get his chance, they can give him playmakers.
That would mean sacrificing the rebuilding of the defense. In 2018, Patrick Mahomes was forced to overcome a poor defensive performance. In 2019, the Chiefs got the defense together and won the Super Bowl.
Not all moves like this work out as well as Smith/Mahomes but recent years have shown us the value of having a quarterback on a rookie contract. The Chiefs were able to remain competitive and have a solid 10-6 season — thus not tanking — and still find the best route for the future.
2016 Philadelphia Eagles
Similarities:
— The Eagles headed into the 2016 season with a veteran quarterback in Sam Bradford who had played very well at times in 2015. Bradford went 7-7 overall and had a 97.0 quarterback rating over his final seven games. They had the bones of a good squad with some veteran weapons in Darren Sproles and Zach Ertz and a young receiver Nelson Agholor.
The Vikings have a veteran quarterback who has been around .500 and each season has put together a very impressive stretch. They also have veteran weapons in Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook and an ascending receiver Justin Jefferson (albeit one that’s better than Agholor).
— Philadelphia had some impressive pieces on defense too. Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox were both in their primes, as was Malcolm Jenkins but otherwise the cupboard was bare.
Even with Danielle Hunter (probably) coming back along with Michael Pierce, the Vikings will have holes on defense and question marks.
— The Eagles traded Sam Bradford, drafted Carson Wentz and bit the bullet on the 2016 season going 7-9 and then spent huge dollars in the following free agency to sign players like Alshon Jeffrey, Torrey Smith, Ron Darby and Patrick Robinson.
Why the Vikings would follow their model:
Trading Kirk Cousins doesn’t seem likely but it wouldn’t be all that different from the Eagles trading Sam Bradford. Photo via the Minnesota Vikings
This approach would take some serious patience on the part of Vikings ownership but there’s a case for it.
If the Vikings decided they were were too far away from a Super Bowl contending roster with the limited draft capital and cap space they have available this offseason, they could trade Kirk Cousins (who is coming off a great second half of the year) for a fairly high draft pick, select a quarterback in the first round and play out the 2021 season with an eye on 2022.
Once they reached the 2022 offseason, the Vikings could stack up their roster with free agents and give their young quarterback a terrific roster and Mike Zimmer the players he needs to get back to having a top five defense.
2019 Miami Dolphins
Similarities:
— The Dolphins went 7-9 in 2018 with a talented quarterback who needs a very good supporting cast (like he got in Tennessee) to succeed.
— They had a handful of very talented pieces that had serious trade value.
— They had a lot of holes.
The Vikings are coming off a 7-9 season with Kirk Cousins, who fits the same mold as Ryan Tannehill. They have Pro Bowl veteran players Adam Thielen, Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith and Eric Kendricks. And they have needs on the offensive line, defensive end, defensive tackle, cornerback, safety and maybe wide receiver.
— The Dolphins stripped it down to the screws and traded Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick and stacked a ton of draft picks for a full rebuild, which came to fruition just one year later in 2019 with a winning season. Now they may be set up to trade for DeShaun Watson.
Why the Vikings would follow their model:
This approach would take even more patience from ownership but the Vikings could completely reset their situation and quickly bounce back with the young pieces they already have from the 2019 and 2020 draft classes.
It would involve trading players like Hunter and Smith — and that would be very difficult — but they could pick a top quarterback in 2022 and have all the resources to give him a rising team right away.
2017 Cincinnati Bengals
Similarities:
— Cincinnati was two years removed from a very good 2015 season in which they went 12-4. They lost key players the following offseason and drifted back to the middle of the pack with a 6-9-1 season and then believed that they would get back on track in 2017. The Bengals hoped that draft picks from 2014, 2015 and 2016 would form the same foundation that the 2010, 2011 and 2012 drafts did in order to build a consistent winner but they fell flat. Their solid quarterback and defensive-minded head coach weren’t able to overcome the overall roster talent fading despite the presence of some stars like AJ Green and Geno Atkins.
— While Kirk Cousins is better than Andy Dalton, the Vikings will also be two years removed from seeing talented players that made up their good 2019 team exit and their hopes will be pinned on recent drafts working out. The 2017-2019 rosters were built on the foundation of hitting home runs on draft picks but they haven’t done as much of that in recent years.
Why the Vikings would follow their model:
The Vikings should be afraid of following this model. If they stay the course, there’s a possibility that the 2019 and 2020 classes won’t be able to drive their success and without tons of cap space to overhaul the roster through free agency, they could get stuck going 7-9 again, as the Bengals did in 2017.
Why would they stay the course? Because it appears to be the safest road to being competitive. And that might be true. Staying the course can be the right answer if they hit on the right players. Will it be enough to be a Super Bowl contender?
Over the past five years, there have been a number of teams that landed in the Vikings’ spot, in the middle of a rebuild/retooling with a fair amount of talent but a flawed roster. Let’s have a look at how five of them approached the similar circumstances and how it worked out…
2016 Atlanta Falcons
Similarities:
— In 2016, Atlanta was coming off an 8-8 season. They possessed an offense that was led by a proven veteran quarterback who was surrounded by terrific weapons including Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel and two quality tight ends in Jacob Tamme and Austin Hooper. Atlanta also had a quality running back duo in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.
The Vikings are most of the way there with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook and Irv Smith Jr.
— The 2016 Falcons had an imperfect offensive line, which ranked 13th by PFF and allowed Matt Ryan to get sacked 37 times but the Falcons leaned into an explosive passing game, ranking No. 1 in net yards per pass attempt, third in yards and second in passing touchdowns.
The Vikings would need improvement on the O-line to reach average but they have solidified tackles and two top-pick interior linemen. They ranked sixth in net yards per pass attempt.
— Ryan had a career year and won MVP of the league, in part due to Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system that saw Ryan lead the NFL in play-action percentage.
Cousins has had two career years in similar play-action system and likewise rose to a starting role in DC playing under Shanahan.
— Atlanta’s defense, run by a defensive-minded head coach, had some impressive playmakers but some major holes too. They finished 27th in points allowed.
The Vikings are coming off a year in which they were 29th in points allowed.
Why the Vikings would follow their model:
This route would require the Vikings deciding to push the gas pedal down on Kirk Cousins and see how fast the car will go. That would mean adding to the offensive side in the offseason.
Leading up to 2016, the Falcons signed star center Alex Mack to a five-year, $45 million deal. They also brought in Taylor Gabriel from Cleveland and he produced over 500 yards in a “playmaker” role.
The Falcons went all-in on creating explosive plays. In ‘16, Ryan was the No. 1 deep passer in the NFL with a 136.1 rating throwing beyond 20 yards (per PFF). Coincidentally, Cousins tied for the NFL lead in 2016 with 39 throws over 20 yards and had the fourth highest QB rating on deep throws.
Atlanta was especially great at throwing on first down. Ryan averaged 10.7 yards per pass attempt on first down. Cousins wasn’t that far away in 2020, gaining 9.3 YPA on first down.
While Ryan is a shade more talented than Cousins, the 2016 Falcons style offense isn’t beyond reach for Cousins or the Vikings. They already have the hard parts done with a deep passing QB, unstoppable receiver and running back who can play the role of a closer like Freeman did for Atlanta. (Side note: The Falcons also completed more than 80 passes to running backs in 2016).
The reason it makes sense is because A) it’s attainable B) the Vikings’ defense might not make a massive improvement next year without so much investment that they wouldn’t be able to get better on offense.
It also stands to reason because getting to the top five in the NFL in passing efficiency is a prerequisite for reaching the Super Bowl. Having an elite defense isn’t.
2017 Kansas City Chiefs
Similarities:
— Kansas City had a solid passing game in 2017, ranking sixth in net yards per attempt and seventh in yards behind a solid quarterback in Alex Smith. Kansas City was also terrific at running the ball behind Kareem Hunt and had two terrific weapons in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
The Vikings were similar, ranking sixth in net yards per attempt and 14th in yards. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen took up the vast majority of targets.
— The Chiefs had a flawed defense that played bend-don’t-break, allowing the 28th most yards but only 15th most points.
If the Vikings had been healthy in 2020, they probably would have been similar considering how many young players would have been mixing in.
— The Chiefs went 10-6 and lost in the first round of the playoffs.
The Vikings had a 2019 season in which they went 10-6 and lost in the second round.
— Before the 2017 season, Kansas City draft Patrick Mahomes in the first round despite having a quarterback who was considered in the ballpark of the top 10
Why the Vikings would follow their model:
Like Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins is a very good but expensive quarterback with a large sample size of getting his teams to the middle of the pack or a little above. Smith had a better track record than Cousins (including leading the league in rating in 2017) but the Chiefs still moved on after 2017, trading him to Washington.
The Vikings could follow their path by drafting a quarterback and playing Cousins for one more season while they allow his successor to sit on the bench and develop. When that rookie does get his chance, they can give him playmakers.
That would mean sacrificing the rebuilding of the defense. In 2018, Patrick Mahomes was forced to overcome a poor defensive performance. In 2019, the Chiefs got the defense together and won the Super Bowl.
Not all moves like this work out as well as Smith/Mahomes but recent years have shown us the value of having a quarterback on a rookie contract. The Chiefs were able to remain competitive and have a solid 10-6 season — thus not tanking — and still find the best route for the future.
2016 Philadelphia Eagles
Similarities:
— The Eagles headed into the 2016 season with a veteran quarterback in Sam Bradford who had played very well at times in 2015. Bradford went 7-7 overall and had a 97.0 quarterback rating over his final seven games. They had the bones of a good squad with some veteran weapons in Darren Sproles and Zach Ertz and a young receiver Nelson Agholor.
The Vikings have a veteran quarterback who has been around .500 and each season has put together a very impressive stretch. They also have veteran weapons in Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook and an ascending receiver Justin Jefferson (albeit one that’s better than Agholor).
— Philadelphia had some impressive pieces on defense too. Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox were both in their primes, as was Malcolm Jenkins but otherwise the cupboard was bare.
Even with Danielle Hunter (probably) coming back along with Michael Pierce, the Vikings will have holes on defense and question marks.
— The Eagles traded Sam Bradford, drafted Carson Wentz and bit the bullet on the 2016 season going 7-9 and then spent huge dollars in the following free agency to sign players like Alshon Jeffrey, Torrey Smith, Ron Darby and Patrick Robinson.
Why the Vikings would follow their model:
Trading Kirk Cousins doesn’t seem likely but it wouldn’t be all that different from the Eagles trading Sam Bradford. Photo via the Minnesota Vikings
This approach would take some serious patience on the part of Vikings ownership but there’s a case for it.
If the Vikings decided they were were too far away from a Super Bowl contending roster with the limited draft capital and cap space they have available this offseason, they could trade Kirk Cousins (who is coming off a great second half of the year) for a fairly high draft pick, select a quarterback in the first round and play out the 2021 season with an eye on 2022.
Once they reached the 2022 offseason, the Vikings could stack up their roster with free agents and give their young quarterback a terrific roster and Mike Zimmer the players he needs to get back to having a top five defense.
2019 Miami Dolphins
Similarities:
— The Dolphins went 7-9 in 2018 with a talented quarterback who needs a very good supporting cast (like he got in Tennessee) to succeed.
— They had a handful of very talented pieces that had serious trade value.
— They had a lot of holes.
The Vikings are coming off a 7-9 season with Kirk Cousins, who fits the same mold as Ryan Tannehill. They have Pro Bowl veteran players Adam Thielen, Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith and Eric Kendricks. And they have needs on the offensive line, defensive end, defensive tackle, cornerback, safety and maybe wide receiver.
— The Dolphins stripped it down to the screws and traded Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick and stacked a ton of draft picks for a full rebuild, which came to fruition just one year later in 2019 with a winning season. Now they may be set up to trade for DeShaun Watson.
Why the Vikings would follow their model:
This approach would take even more patience from ownership but the Vikings could completely reset their situation and quickly bounce back with the young pieces they already have from the 2019 and 2020 draft classes.
It would involve trading players like Hunter and Smith — and that would be very difficult — but they could pick a top quarterback in 2022 and have all the resources to give him a rising team right away.
2017 Cincinnati Bengals
Similarities:
— Cincinnati was two years removed from a very good 2015 season in which they went 12-4. They lost key players the following offseason and drifted back to the middle of the pack with a 6-9-1 season and then believed that they would get back on track in 2017. The Bengals hoped that draft picks from 2014, 2015 and 2016 would form the same foundation that the 2010, 2011 and 2012 drafts did in order to build a consistent winner but they fell flat. Their solid quarterback and defensive-minded head coach weren’t able to overcome the overall roster talent fading despite the presence of some stars like AJ Green and Geno Atkins.
— While Kirk Cousins is better than Andy Dalton, the Vikings will also be two years removed from seeing talented players that made up their good 2019 team exit and their hopes will be pinned on recent drafts working out. The 2017-2019 rosters were built on the foundation of hitting home runs on draft picks but they haven’t done as much of that in recent years.
Why the Vikings would follow their model:
The Vikings should be afraid of following this model. If they stay the course, there’s a possibility that the 2019 and 2020 classes won’t be able to drive their success and without tons of cap space to overhaul the roster through free agency, they could get stuck going 7-9 again, as the Bengals did in 2017.
Why would they stay the course? Because it appears to be the safest road to being competitive. And that might be true. Staying the course can be the right answer if they hit on the right players. Will it be enough to be a Super Bowl contender?
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/five-recent-teams-the-vikings-could
... and neither is this Chris guy.