Is it the Dline not Generating Pressure or the Secondary?
Dec 31, 2020 11:03:10 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 1 more like this
Post by whoskmoon on Dec 31, 2020 11:03:10 GMT -6
Normally if a QB takes a certain amount of time to throw against a secondary, there are multiple factors that come in to play. First and foremost is how quickly their receivers get open, but typically there is also the factor of how quickly a pass rush gets to a QB. One of the cool things about having no pass rush this season on the Vikings is that it gives us an opportunity to see how quickly QBs are able to find open guys against the secondary, since our D-line is having no impact.
Below are the Time to Throw (TTT) numbers for each QB the Vikings have faced, along with their YPA. Along with those numbers, I calculated the difference between the TTT the QB took against us, their YPA against us, and using the percent difference of their average TTT versus their TTT against us, I calculated their expected YPA.
For the secondary, a negative difference in TTT is a good thing and means they held their coverages longer than the average secondary that has faced that QB has been able too and/or how long the average Dline has been able to generate pressure against that QB. A negative expected versus actual difference in YPA is a bad thing for the secondary, as it indicates the QB's YPA should not have been as high as it was based on the TTT.
Overall, I think we see some games where the Dline absolutely was a big part of the problem. The second Bears game Mitch had all day to throw, and he absolutely took advantage of it. To a lesser extent this was the issue against the Saints as well, although 2.75 seconds to throw on average should never result in 12 YPA. We also see better play towards the end of the season with only Brady having more success throwing in less time than he typically takes on average. Of course, Brady is also the only QB we have faced in the second half of the season who would be considered top 10 at this point in their careers. Maybe Brees too, and outside of two stinker of throws that showed off how bad his arm is, he had a field day against us.
As for who is the biggest culprit for us having a bad pass defense, Dline or Secondary, I think this shows both are at fault. Sometimes the secondary has done well and the Dline has let them down, sometimes guys were open quickly and the secondary was at fault. Most of the time it was a combination of the two playing poorly.
Below are the Time to Throw (TTT) numbers for each QB the Vikings have faced, along with their YPA. Along with those numbers, I calculated the difference between the TTT the QB took against us, their YPA against us, and using the percent difference of their average TTT versus their TTT against us, I calculated their expected YPA.
| QB | Avg Time To throw | TTT Vs Vikings | % difference | YPA Average | YPA vs Vikings | Difference | Expected YPA | Expected Difference | Expected vs Actual YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodgers | 2.53 | 2.25 | -12.44% | 8.1 | 8.3 | 0.2 | 7.09 | -1.01 | -1.21 |
| Rivers | 2.35 | 2.2 | -6.82% | 7.7 | 8.6 | 0.9 | 7.18 | -0.52 | -1.43 |
| Tannehill | 2.52 | 2.42 | -4.13% | 7.9 | 8.7 | 0.8 | 7.57 | -0.33 | -1.13 |
| Watson | 2.65 | 2.8 | 5.36% | 8.8 | 9.1 | 0.3 | 9.27 | 0.47 | 0.17 |
| Wilson | 2.76 | 2.69 | -2.60% | 7.7 | 6.8 | -0.9 | 7.50 | -0.20 | 0.70 |
| Ryan | 2.68 | 2.44 | -9.84% | 7.4 | 9.3 | 1.9 | 6.67 | -0.73 | -2.63 |
| Rodgers | 2.53 | 2.75 | 8.00% | 8.1 | 7.1 | -1 | 8.75 | 0.65 | 1.65 |
| Stafford | 2.45 | 2.5 | 2.00% | 7.6 | 6.6 | -1 | 7.75 | 0.15 | 1.15 |
| Foles | 2.33 | 2.59 | 10.04% | 5.9 | 4.1 | -1.8 | 6.49 | 0.59 | 2.39 |
| Dalton | 2.34 | 2.16 | -8.33% | 6.7 | 6.3 | -0.4 | 6.14 | -0.56 | -0.16 |
| Bridgewater | 2.4 | 2.47 | 2.83% | 7.6 | 7.4 | -0.2 | 7.82 | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| Glennon | 2.33 | 2.39 | 2.51% | 5.9 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 6.05 | 0.15 | -0.65 |
| Brady | 2.39 | 2.28 | -4.82% | 7.4 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 7.04 | -0.36 | -1.46 |
| Trubiskey | 2.53 | 2.88 | 12.15% | 7.1 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 7.96 | 0.86 | -1.64 |
| Brees | 2.49 | 2.75 | 9.45% | 7.7 | 12 | 4.3 | 8.43 | 0.73 | -3.57 |
| Averages | 2.49 | 2.50 | 0.22% | 7.44 | 7.94 | 0.5 | 7.45 | 0.01 | -0.49 |
For the secondary, a negative difference in TTT is a good thing and means they held their coverages longer than the average secondary that has faced that QB has been able too and/or how long the average Dline has been able to generate pressure against that QB. A negative expected versus actual difference in YPA is a bad thing for the secondary, as it indicates the QB's YPA should not have been as high as it was based on the TTT.
Overall, I think we see some games where the Dline absolutely was a big part of the problem. The second Bears game Mitch had all day to throw, and he absolutely took advantage of it. To a lesser extent this was the issue against the Saints as well, although 2.75 seconds to throw on average should never result in 12 YPA. We also see better play towards the end of the season with only Brady having more success throwing in less time than he typically takes on average. Of course, Brady is also the only QB we have faced in the second half of the season who would be considered top 10 at this point in their careers. Maybe Brees too, and outside of two stinker of throws that showed off how bad his arm is, he had a field day against us.
As for who is the biggest culprit for us having a bad pass defense, Dline or Secondary, I think this shows both are at fault. Sometimes the secondary has done well and the Dline has let them down, sometimes guys were open quickly and the secondary was at fault. Most of the time it was a combination of the two playing poorly.
... and neither is this Chris guy.