Post by Purple Pain on Mar 7, 2021 9:45:50 GMT -6
Purple Insider Q&A: PFF cap expert Brad Spielberger explains Vikings' options with Reiff, Cousins and more
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/q-and-a-pff-cap-expert-brad-spielberger
Matthew:
Alright Brad, I’ve been messing around with the Cap Calculator trying to figure out a way to make the Vikings’ cap situation work with a big free agent signing. Give me the path for making that happen.
Brad:
The Vikings are going to have a tough time adding a priority free agent. If they want to do that they would have to probably extend Danielle Hunter in part to lower that cap hit, look to restructure Anthony Barr, probably cut Riley Reiff and slide Ezra Cleveland back over to left tackle and look to make a series of moves. Maybe extend Harrison Smith and let Anthony Harris walk, restructure Adam Thielen…maybe cut Kyle Rudolph or trade him for a late-round flier.
Really every move you look and think they might need to make, if they do want to make a big splash and free agency they’d have to go ahead and make it.
Matthew:
So give me your opinion on the different free agent philosophies between making the big splash or spreading out what money they can create to multiple players who are less expensive.
Brad:
There’s always context to every move and every roster as well. No roster is a piece away. I know sometimes we poke fun at Vikings fans thinking they are one guard away. There’s never been a team in the history of the NFL and there will never be a team in the history of the NFL that is one guard away. That’s not a thing. But sometimes a big splash play, if you have a weak link and for the most part the rest of the line is solid and you add a plus player in there it can raise all tides and make that line a positive as opposed to a negative and that can have massive benefits.
In general my philosophy for constructing a roster is: You draft and develop, you save big contracts for your own players and use free agency to supplement spots and bring in mid-tier guys. One example this last season where it worked masterfully was the Buffalo Bills. Daryl Williams at right tackle, a minimum signing, coming off injury but massive benefit to that move, his surplus value was huge. Cole Beasley, John Brown, their additions were all mid-tier and then they are now going to spend big money on a trade for Stefon Diggs and spend the big money on their own guys… It’s hard for a player to live up to a big signing.
Sometimes of course it’s necessary. If you know a guy is interested in playing for you and that’s not always the case in every free agency that a marquee guy wants to be a Viking, so sometimes it’s worth it to make that move.
Matthew:
Let’s talk about Riley Reiff. He is the swing guy to this offseason and how much they can spend in free agency. It’s a tough situation though. He’s good and he’s played well but he’s also in his 30s.
Brad:
It is a tough decision, there’s no easy outcome. He’s right on the cusp of still playing at a high level, he’s a positive on an offensive line that doesn’t have a lot of positives. It looks like a foregone conclusion [that he will get cut]…but I think them giving him the incentive that he barely missed…was kind of a good gesture of good faith after a tough decision last offseason [to make him take a pay cut for Yannick Ngakoue] they obviously said, “we still appreciate your contributions, your value to this team in the locker room and on the field.”
It’s kind of the lynchpin that points to the direction in the fork in the road of the offseason. If we do move on from him and get that $11 million in savings and trust Ezra Cleveland to be our starting left tackle as we planned drafting him in the second last year, it opens a lot of things up.
Another important point that folks don’t always take into consideration: Yes, restructures are great, yes there’s no increase in money but the owner is giving a signing bonus and large chunks of millions of dollars in cash up front or in a very short period of time. I think folks are taking those for granted this offseason…you still have to go to the owner and say, “can you cut a check for millions of dollars?”
Matthew:
So when everyone’s toying around with OverTheCap.com, they an use the June 1 cut with Kyle Rudolph to create more space, it isn’t always that simple, right? Can you explain how that works?
Brad:
When you traditionally cut a guy, all of his prorated bonus money — signing bonus, option bonus etc. — will accelerate up to the current year. Rudolph has $4.35 million total prorated bonus remaining. When you do a post-June 1 cut, the only amount that hits 2021 is just the portion that’s set for 2021, the rest will hit 2022. If you do a regular cut with him, you save about $5 million, if you do a post-June 1 cut it’s like $8 million. There is a substantial difference there.
But you don’t get the cap relief until June 2. When you need cap space, when you need money to operate to sign free agents — because you have to be cap compliant at all times — that money isn’t available to you. You have a placeholder for it and you know it’s coming, often what they do is say, “this is for our draft class, our rookies will be signed with this.” The final piece is that you can cut as many guys as you want after June 1 but you’re only allowed to designate two guys per offseason as June 1 cuts.
Matthew:
And you’re also kicking money down the road, right?
Brad:
Right. You’ll have more dead money waiting next year. It just helps with short-term relief.
Matthew:
Can we talk about Danielle Hunter? What would an extension look like for him?
Brad:
The best example when you look at Hunter is DeAndre Hopkins this past offseason. He had three years remaining on his deal and still wanted new money, upfront money. So what the Cardinals were able to do there is, even though they gave him a nice big bonus, $27.5 million signing bonus, they were able to reduce his first year cap hit by a good chunk and then they kept his second and third year cap hits almost identical to what he was going to make in Houston. How you kind of sell the player on it or make him happy is that money is guaranteed.
So Hunter does not have a lot of salary guarantees left in his deal. You don’t have to raise those numbers, you would just go ahead and guarantee his salary in 2022 and 2023…it’s more cash. You are paying the guy a lot. He still has a lot of years on his deal life and the Vikings care about precedent and you are signaling to guys that you can be frustrated and even with three years left on your deal you can still come to the table and say you’re going to hold out if you don’t pay me.
Matthew:
OK let’s talk about Kirk Cousins. The reason for conversations about Cousins is really how his contract is set up. He gets 2022 fully guaranteed on the third day of the league year this offseason and then is set to have a $45 million cap hit in 2022, so it feels like it’s either extend him or trade him at some point. Fill in the gaps for me here…
Brad:
The most important point is that $20 million is dead money no matter what you do. That’s the remaining pro-rated money on this deal, $10 million in the each of the next two seasons. So if you trade him for another quarterback, you say, alright we’re paying that guy X plus what’s left behind for Kirk. But he has a $31 million cap hit so maybe you don’t increase that number too much in bringing someone back.
That third day of the league year date is important for a cut…once that money locks in and is guaranteed you’re either extending him and trying to smooth it out over a number of years — you’re not getting rid of Cousins as soon as that happens. In 2021 or 2022, you’re either playing him or trading him. There is no cutting of Kirk Cousins happening.
He’s been masterful in his leveraging and understanding how he can always maintain maximum leverage. A lot of that was afforded to him before he became a Viking because there’s no threat of a third franchise tag. Teams can’t hold that over him because it would be a gigantic number.
It’s going to be tough for them to find a [trade] solution. I know there’s things swirling in the wind but at this point I don’t know how much credibility there is to that. They’re frankly in a tough spot. A restart might be the cleanest route for them but at the end of the day, this is why his structure was so important to him and so smart for his representation because he’s holding all the cards.
Matthew:
So what are we talking about for potential trade value?
Brad:
It would definitely not be a salary dump like we saw with Jared Goff. I think he would get a first and change. A couple of years ago that might sound crazy and say he’s going to get two firsts plus. Look, he’s a top half of the league quarterback, he’s still only 33 but that isn’t that hold. We’re seeing a shift… market rate is at least a first but his contract isn’t affording you any surplus value or giving you any benefit. You’re getting him at a market rate…you’re not getting a discount at any point with Kirk Cousins.
Matthew:
Last thing for you. What’s your feeling for how free agency is going to play out this year with the salary cap going down and everything in flux?
Brad:
What I think will be different is the idea of some super teams forming where some mid-tier free agents…say, “I’m just going to go for exposure, this team has a good quarterback, I think they’re probably going to make the playoffs, I think I’ll be seen on national TV six times this year, good coaching staff” and all those things.
Alright Brad, I’ve been messing around with the Cap Calculator trying to figure out a way to make the Vikings’ cap situation work with a big free agent signing. Give me the path for making that happen.
Brad:
The Vikings are going to have a tough time adding a priority free agent. If they want to do that they would have to probably extend Danielle Hunter in part to lower that cap hit, look to restructure Anthony Barr, probably cut Riley Reiff and slide Ezra Cleveland back over to left tackle and look to make a series of moves. Maybe extend Harrison Smith and let Anthony Harris walk, restructure Adam Thielen…maybe cut Kyle Rudolph or trade him for a late-round flier.
Really every move you look and think they might need to make, if they do want to make a big splash and free agency they’d have to go ahead and make it.
Matthew:
So give me your opinion on the different free agent philosophies between making the big splash or spreading out what money they can create to multiple players who are less expensive.
Brad:
There’s always context to every move and every roster as well. No roster is a piece away. I know sometimes we poke fun at Vikings fans thinking they are one guard away. There’s never been a team in the history of the NFL and there will never be a team in the history of the NFL that is one guard away. That’s not a thing. But sometimes a big splash play, if you have a weak link and for the most part the rest of the line is solid and you add a plus player in there it can raise all tides and make that line a positive as opposed to a negative and that can have massive benefits.
In general my philosophy for constructing a roster is: You draft and develop, you save big contracts for your own players and use free agency to supplement spots and bring in mid-tier guys. One example this last season where it worked masterfully was the Buffalo Bills. Daryl Williams at right tackle, a minimum signing, coming off injury but massive benefit to that move, his surplus value was huge. Cole Beasley, John Brown, their additions were all mid-tier and then they are now going to spend big money on a trade for Stefon Diggs and spend the big money on their own guys… It’s hard for a player to live up to a big signing.
Sometimes of course it’s necessary. If you know a guy is interested in playing for you and that’s not always the case in every free agency that a marquee guy wants to be a Viking, so sometimes it’s worth it to make that move.
Matthew:
Let’s talk about Riley Reiff. He is the swing guy to this offseason and how much they can spend in free agency. It’s a tough situation though. He’s good and he’s played well but he’s also in his 30s.
Brad:
It is a tough decision, there’s no easy outcome. He’s right on the cusp of still playing at a high level, he’s a positive on an offensive line that doesn’t have a lot of positives. It looks like a foregone conclusion [that he will get cut]…but I think them giving him the incentive that he barely missed…was kind of a good gesture of good faith after a tough decision last offseason [to make him take a pay cut for Yannick Ngakoue] they obviously said, “we still appreciate your contributions, your value to this team in the locker room and on the field.”
It’s kind of the lynchpin that points to the direction in the fork in the road of the offseason. If we do move on from him and get that $11 million in savings and trust Ezra Cleveland to be our starting left tackle as we planned drafting him in the second last year, it opens a lot of things up.
Another important point that folks don’t always take into consideration: Yes, restructures are great, yes there’s no increase in money but the owner is giving a signing bonus and large chunks of millions of dollars in cash up front or in a very short period of time. I think folks are taking those for granted this offseason…you still have to go to the owner and say, “can you cut a check for millions of dollars?”
Matthew:
So when everyone’s toying around with OverTheCap.com, they an use the June 1 cut with Kyle Rudolph to create more space, it isn’t always that simple, right? Can you explain how that works?
Brad:
When you traditionally cut a guy, all of his prorated bonus money — signing bonus, option bonus etc. — will accelerate up to the current year. Rudolph has $4.35 million total prorated bonus remaining. When you do a post-June 1 cut, the only amount that hits 2021 is just the portion that’s set for 2021, the rest will hit 2022. If you do a regular cut with him, you save about $5 million, if you do a post-June 1 cut it’s like $8 million. There is a substantial difference there.
But you don’t get the cap relief until June 2. When you need cap space, when you need money to operate to sign free agents — because you have to be cap compliant at all times — that money isn’t available to you. You have a placeholder for it and you know it’s coming, often what they do is say, “this is for our draft class, our rookies will be signed with this.” The final piece is that you can cut as many guys as you want after June 1 but you’re only allowed to designate two guys per offseason as June 1 cuts.
Matthew:
And you’re also kicking money down the road, right?
Brad:
Right. You’ll have more dead money waiting next year. It just helps with short-term relief.
Matthew:
Can we talk about Danielle Hunter? What would an extension look like for him?
Brad:
The best example when you look at Hunter is DeAndre Hopkins this past offseason. He had three years remaining on his deal and still wanted new money, upfront money. So what the Cardinals were able to do there is, even though they gave him a nice big bonus, $27.5 million signing bonus, they were able to reduce his first year cap hit by a good chunk and then they kept his second and third year cap hits almost identical to what he was going to make in Houston. How you kind of sell the player on it or make him happy is that money is guaranteed.
So Hunter does not have a lot of salary guarantees left in his deal. You don’t have to raise those numbers, you would just go ahead and guarantee his salary in 2022 and 2023…it’s more cash. You are paying the guy a lot. He still has a lot of years on his deal life and the Vikings care about precedent and you are signaling to guys that you can be frustrated and even with three years left on your deal you can still come to the table and say you’re going to hold out if you don’t pay me.
Matthew:
OK let’s talk about Kirk Cousins. The reason for conversations about Cousins is really how his contract is set up. He gets 2022 fully guaranteed on the third day of the league year this offseason and then is set to have a $45 million cap hit in 2022, so it feels like it’s either extend him or trade him at some point. Fill in the gaps for me here…
Brad:
The most important point is that $20 million is dead money no matter what you do. That’s the remaining pro-rated money on this deal, $10 million in the each of the next two seasons. So if you trade him for another quarterback, you say, alright we’re paying that guy X plus what’s left behind for Kirk. But he has a $31 million cap hit so maybe you don’t increase that number too much in bringing someone back.
That third day of the league year date is important for a cut…once that money locks in and is guaranteed you’re either extending him and trying to smooth it out over a number of years — you’re not getting rid of Cousins as soon as that happens. In 2021 or 2022, you’re either playing him or trading him. There is no cutting of Kirk Cousins happening.
He’s been masterful in his leveraging and understanding how he can always maintain maximum leverage. A lot of that was afforded to him before he became a Viking because there’s no threat of a third franchise tag. Teams can’t hold that over him because it would be a gigantic number.
It’s going to be tough for them to find a [trade] solution. I know there’s things swirling in the wind but at this point I don’t know how much credibility there is to that. They’re frankly in a tough spot. A restart might be the cleanest route for them but at the end of the day, this is why his structure was so important to him and so smart for his representation because he’s holding all the cards.
Matthew:
So what are we talking about for potential trade value?
Brad:
It would definitely not be a salary dump like we saw with Jared Goff. I think he would get a first and change. A couple of years ago that might sound crazy and say he’s going to get two firsts plus. Look, he’s a top half of the league quarterback, he’s still only 33 but that isn’t that hold. We’re seeing a shift… market rate is at least a first but his contract isn’t affording you any surplus value or giving you any benefit. You’re getting him at a market rate…you’re not getting a discount at any point with Kirk Cousins.
Matthew:
Last thing for you. What’s your feeling for how free agency is going to play out this year with the salary cap going down and everything in flux?
Brad:
What I think will be different is the idea of some super teams forming where some mid-tier free agents…say, “I’m just going to go for exposure, this team has a good quarterback, I think they’re probably going to make the playoffs, I think I’ll be seen on national TV six times this year, good coaching staff” and all those things.
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/q-and-a-pff-cap-expert-brad-spielberger
... and neither is this Chris guy.