[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up?

whoskmoon
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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 22, 2020 16:36:22 GMT -6 Funkytown, Danchat, and 1 more like this

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Post by whoskmoon on Dec 22, 2020 16:36:22 GMT -6

Not all 250 yard, 2 TD games are created equal for a QB. One QB can put up those numbers and his offense scores 17 points. The other can do the same and his offense scores 33. Sometimes that is because the run game is better for one QB versus the other, sometimes it is because a QB runs for another 100 yards and helps his team out that way. Most of the time it is because one QB is incredibly efficient at moving the football, while the other QB has a couple of good drives and does pretty much nothing the rest of the game.

Either way, come Monday morning lazy sports analyst will look at the numbers and see almost an identical game for both QBs, when the reality is one QB had a much better game than the other. I call this the Matt Stafford affect, because Matt Stafford is the king of an empty stat line that implies he was better than he actually was.

To get around the Matt Stafford Affect, or MSA, I have come up with a simple formula to measure a QBs potential impact on their team's overall scoring. First, I took the overall yardage gained by the QB or QBs for a team(passing and running the football) and divided it by the total yards earned by the offense. I then take that percentage and multiplied by the points scored per drive of the offense on the year. Pretty simple and this formula is not perfect, it does not take into account turnovers at all, and also doesn't penalize QBs for garbage time numbers, but based on the results, I think it pretty much hits on which QBs do the most to help their team's score. Below are the results so far in 2020:

Team	Drives	Yds/Dr	Pts/Dr	Passing + Rushing YDS	Total Team Yards	Percentage of team yards	Scoring Contribution	Rank
KC	126	44.87	2.96	4,646	5653.62	0.821774368	2.432452128	1
BUF	128	38.64	2.76	4,282	4945.92	0.865764105	2.389508929	2
SEA	138	37.04	2.8	4,095	5111.52	0.801131562	2.243168373	3
GB	127	40.96	3.1	3,655	5201.92	0.702625185	2.178138072	4
ARI	140	35.81	2.56	4,261	5013.4	0.849922208	2.175800854	5
HOU	130	35.61	2.22	4,249	4629.3	0.917849351	2.037625559	6
TB	142	34.45	2.54	3,758	4891.9	0.768208671	1.951250026	7
LV	131	38.15	2.67	3,575	4997.65	0.715336208	1.909947675	8
TEN	132	39.88	2.85	3,518	5264.16	0.668292757	1.904634358	9
CAR	124	38.26	2.36	3,740	4744.24	0.788324368	1.860445509	10
IND	131	37.75	2.47	3,691	4945.25	0.746372782	1.843540771	11
BAL	138	31.83	2.41	3,263	4392.54	0.742850378	1.790269411	12
DET	138	33.87	2.25	3,703	4674.06	0.792244858	1.78255093	13
ATL	139	35.72	2.31	3,828	4965.08	0.770984556	1.780974325	14
NO	138	35.04	2.62	3,248	4835.52	0.671696115	1.759843822	15
CLE	129	37.12	2.56	3,119	4788.48	0.651354918	1.667468591	16
MIN	141	35.13	2.35	3,507	4953.33	0.708008552	1.663820097	17
PIT	146	31.69	2.24	3,362	4626.74	0.726645543	1.627686017	18
LAR	145	34.57	2.1	3,821	5012.65	0.762271453	1.600770052	19
DAL	139	34.31	2.04	3,600	4769.09	0.75486099	1.53991642	20
MIA	142	30.96	2.18	3,099	4396.32	0.704907741	1.536698875	21
SF	143	33.59	2.05	3,585	4803.37	0.746350999	1.530019549	22
NE	122	36.13	2.04	3,085	4407.86	0.699886113	1.42776767	24
LAC	142	35.65	1.99	3,743	5062.3	0.739387235	1.471380598	23
CHI	142	30.19	1.87	3,144	4286.98	0.733383407	1.371426972	25
WAS	145	28.6	1.82	3,042	4147	0.73354232	1.335047022	26
JAX	138	32.22	1.74	3,266	4446.36	0.734533416	1.278088144	28
CIN	138	30.19	1.72	3,029	4166.22	0.727037938	1.250505254	29
NYG	130	29.71	1.72	2,600	3862.3	0.673174015	1.157859307	30
PHI	148	30.23	1.73	3,403	4474.04	0.760610097	1.315855468	27
DEN	148	29.92	1.7	2,864	4428.16	0.646769764	1.0995086	31
NYJ	139	26.24	1.26	2,355	3647.36	0.645672486	0.813547333	32

Based on these results, there is a clear and obvious MVP in the NFL this year. Mahomes is absolutely killing it and while Rodgers is having a good year, he isn't close to Mahomes in scoring contribution per drive.

As far as the Vikings QB, he is getting carried to a good offense by his RB and has contributed at a below average rate compared to his peers. Cook is this offense, and Cousins is just along for the ride. Is that Cousins fault though? Is he hamstrung by a coaching staff that wants to run the football more than pass? Well previous years says Zimmer is doing the right thing

2019 QB contribution and efficiency:
63 % of the of the offense, 12th in QB scoring efficiency

2018:
75 %, 15th in QB scoring efficiency

Small sample size over 3 years, but a couple of things stand out to me. #1, Cousins has never contributed to scoring at a top 10 level as a Viking and #2, the best he has been with the Vikings was last year when he barely threw the ball (in comparison to the rest of the league). Maybe that is why Zimmer wants to run the ball a lot?

Last Edit: Aug 3, 2022 15:36:22 GMT -6 by Funkytown

Danchat
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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 22, 2020 16:50:00 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by Danchat on Dec 22, 2020 16:50:00 GMT -6

Good stuff. I really like this idea of stripping the stats down to the basics, so we don't have to be debating why a QB gets penalized for a rushing TD rather than a passing TD.

This looks about right. Cousins gets plopped right around average with guys like Mayfield and Goff around him. Not where you want your $33M QB to be, but that's just who he is.

Josh Allen really is having a heck of a year. Everything is clicking for him, and it's hard to believe he's outplaying Russell Wilson at this point, but he is. Perhaps our answer to the "how do you plan on drafting the next Mahomes?" question should be "draft the next Josh Allen"!

Wow, look at that Jets number. Yikes. The Jags' number is higher than I thought it would be. Denver has to be disappointed with Lock's play at QB after they've loaded the HB/WR/TE positions. Too bad Elway has no idea how to scout QBs!

legendsofthenorth Ring of Honor Enter your message here... Posts: 5,730 Likes: 3,266	[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 22, 2020 17:58:38 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by legendsofthenorth on Dec 22, 2020 17:58:38 GMT -6 Good work. That's a different way then the normal to look at it. Thanks

bdillon0820 Starter Posts: 792 Likes: 798	[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 22, 2020 18:21:08 GMT -6 via mobile legendsofthenorth likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by bdillon0820 on Dec 22, 2020 18:21:08 GMT -6 Great, another thread going out of its way to disparage Cousins. We get it, the guy is average and sometimes good. Beating a dead horse my friend.

whoskmoon
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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 22, 2020 22:48:25 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Dec 22, 2020 22:48:25 GMT -6

Dec 22, 2020 18:21:08 GMT -6 bdillon0820 said:

Great, another thread going out of its way to disparage Cousins. We get it, the guy is average and sometimes good. Beating a dead horse my friend.

It is exploring Cousins' impact on the team, not going out of my way to disparage him.

This board is full of stats taken out of context or cherry picked to make an average QB seem more than he actually is and a bunch of posters who just post how much he sucks in response. I am just trying to put some real numbers behind Cousins time with the Vikings. He isn't a terrible QB, but he isn't having more of an impact than a guy like Dalton used to have with the Bengals when he was at his peak. Not a impediment to winning most of the time, and not the reason a team wins most of the time.

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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 23, 2020 17:55:54 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by bdillon0820 on Dec 23, 2020 17:55:54 GMT -6

Dec 22, 2020 22:48:25 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Dec 22, 2020 18:21:08 GMT -6 bdillon0820 said:

Great, another thread going out of its way to disparage Cousins. We get it, the guy is average and sometimes good. Beating a dead horse my friend.

It is exploring Cousins' impact on the team, not going out of my way to disparage him.

This board is full of stats taken out of context or cherry picked to make an average QB seem more than he actually is and a bunch of posters who just post how much he sucks in response. I am just trying to put some real numbers behind Cousins time with the Vikings. He isn't a terrible QB, but he isn't having more of an impact than a guy like Dalton used to have with the Bengals when he was at his peak. Not a impediment to winning most of the time, and not the reason a team wins most of the time.

Weird, I don't remember Dalton ever winning a playoff game with the Bengals. At least Cousins won a playoff game lol. Not only that, but Cousins was actually one of the main reasons we won that playoff game too lol. All I'm saying that the cherry picking stat threads about Cousins get old. They remind of all the dumb and arbitrary stats that ESPN is known for. Why not just post his record and stats? They will paint the same picture.

wxman91
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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 23, 2020 18:34:23 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by wxman91 on Dec 23, 2020 18:34:23 GMT -6

I don’t understand how this is a good QB ranking. To me, it just shows how the coaching staff likes to call plays. The Vikings, for better or worse, have set up their OL to be a run-blocking group and have called plays accordingly. The team is 28th in pass/run ratio. That isn’t an indicator for Kirk, it is acknowledgement that Zim likes a ball control offense and Rick has gone along with an athletic set of lineman that are much better at run blocking schemes than holding up to a bull rush.

whoskmoon
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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 23, 2020 20:20:32 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Dec 23, 2020 20:20:32 GMT -6

Dec 23, 2020 18:34:23 GMT -6 wxman91 said:

I don’t understand how this is a good QB ranking. To me, it just shows how the coaching staff likes to call plays. The Vikings, for better or worse, have set up their OL to be a run-blocking group and have called plays accordingly. The team is 28th in pass/run ratio. That isn’t an indicator for Kirk, it is acknowledgement that Zim likes a ball control offense and Rick has gone along with an athletic set of lineman that are much better at run blocking schemes than holding up to a bull rush.

Except it doesn't. If you look at the numbers, there are QBs who contribute less of a percentage of yards to their offense who rank higher on the list, as well as a number who contribute more who rank lower. Rodgers actually has a lower percentage contributing to the offense than Cousins, but he is 4th in the list. Tannehill is in the top 10 and he is almost 5 percentage points higher than Cousins.

Do you think TN would score as efficiently if Tannehill threw the ball more and Derick Henry ran it less? Would the Vikings score as efficiently with Cook running less? By your argument they would, and I just don't see it.

ozzvic
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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 24, 2020 5:44:16 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by ozzvic on Dec 24, 2020 5:44:16 GMT -6

Dec 22, 2020 22:48:25 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Dec 22, 2020 18:21:08 GMT -6 bdillon0820 said:

Great, another thread going out of its way to disparage Cousins. We get it, the guy is average and sometimes good. Beating a dead horse my friend.

It is exploring Cousins' impact on the team, not going out of my way to disparage him.

This board is full of stats taken out of context or cherry picked to make an average QB seem more than he actually is and a bunch of posters who just post how much he sucks in response. I am just trying to put some real numbers behind Cousins time with the Vikings. He isn't a terrible QB, but he isn't having more of an impact than a guy like Dalton used to have with the Bengals when he was at his peak. Not a impediment to winning most of the time, and not the reason a team wins most of the time.

Not putting your study down because it obviously took alot of effort on your part. The only thing i question is the QBs ahead of Cousins how are there olines? I understand a QB has to step up but at the same time when you have to take 3 steps and fire it out or else its a sack it does kinda hurt the deep pass where maybe he could be a top 10 QB. Im not saying Cousins is elite but maybe he could be above average-good with a better guard and center play.

whoskmoon
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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 24, 2020 6:59:34 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Dec 24, 2020 6:59:34 GMT -6

Dec 24, 2020 5:44:16 GMT -6 ozzvic said:

Dec 22, 2020 22:48:25 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

It is exploring Cousins' impact on the team, not going out of my way to disparage him.

This board is full of stats taken out of context or cherry picked to make an average QB seem more than he actually is and a bunch of posters who just post how much he sucks in response. I am just trying to put some real numbers behind Cousins time with the Vikings. He isn't a terrible QB, but he isn't having more of an impact than a guy like Dalton used to have with the Bengals when he was at his peak. Not a impediment to winning most of the time, and not the reason a team wins most of the time.

Not putting your study down because it obviously took alot of effort on your part. The only thing i question is the QBs ahead of Cousins how are there olines? I understand a QB has to step up but at the same time when you have to take 3 steps and fire it out or else its a sack it does kinda hurt the deep pass where maybe he could be a top 10 QB. Im not saying Cousins is elite but maybe he could be above average-good with a better guard and center play.

This, like passer rating, yards and TDs does not take into account the team around the QB and needs to be looked at with context. No stat is perfect on its own, and I am glad you brought up the team around the QB having an impact on a QB's ability to score.

It is a lot easier for Rodgers to put up points than Watson for instance, and it is pretty incredible what Watson is doing in Houston with what is surrounding him. No run game outside of him, everyone focusing on stopping him behind a worse Oline than we have.

Cousins doesn't have it as easy as some of the QBs ahead of him in terms of Oline, but overall the run game he has, the WR and TEs, should at least put him close to Tannehill. Instead he is well behind guys like Teddy and Stafford who don't have great lines, but also don't have the run game defenses are focusing on.

In fact, their are only 3 QBs making more than 10 million per year who are lower on this list than Cousins: Goff, Big Ben and Wentz. Wentz was benched, Big Ben is on the downside of his career and Goff is Kirk Cousins if he were drafted in the 1st round and thrown in right out of the gate.

The rest on the list below Cousins are rookies, backups or soon to be backups (Lock, Jones, Darnold). That should be very concerning to every Vikings fan.

Oracle Bone Diviner Moderator Posts: 14,708 Likes: 10,610 Fan Since: last century	[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 24, 2020 9:48:03 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Oracle Bone Diviner on Dec 24, 2020 9:48:03 GMT -6 Change affect and MSA to effect and MSE and I will consider it more carefully.
	Last Edit: Dec 24, 2020 9:49:32 GMT -6 by Oracle Bone Diviner There's a ringing in my ear and I think it's the Call of the Wild itinerant, noun; a person who works and wanders.

Danchat
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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 24, 2020 10:04:35 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Dec 24, 2020 10:04:35 GMT -6

Dec 24, 2020 6:59:34 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Dec 24, 2020 5:44:16 GMT -6 ozzvic said:

Not putting your study down because it obviously took alot of effort on your part. The only thing i question is the QBs ahead of Cousins how are there olines? I understand a QB has to step up but at the same time when you have to take 3 steps and fire it out or else its a sack it does kinda hurt the deep pass where maybe he could be a top 10 QB. Im not saying Cousins is elite but maybe he could be above average-good with a better guard and center play.

This, like passer rating, yards and TDs does not take into account the team around the QB and needs to be looked at with context. No stat is perfect on its own, and I am glad you brought up the team around the QB having an impact on a QB's ability to score.

It is a lot easier for Rodgers to put up points than Watson for instance, and it is pretty incredible what Watson is doing in Houston with what is surrounding him. No run game outside of him, everyone focusing on stopping him behind a worse Oline than we have.

Cousins doesn't have it as easy as some of the QBs ahead of him in terms of Oline, but overall the run game he has, the WR and TEs, should at least put him close to Tannehill. Instead he is well behind guys like Teddy and Stafford who don't have great lines, but also don't have the run game defenses are focusing on.

In fact, their are only 3 QBs making more than 10 million per year who are lower on this list than Cousins: Goff, Big Ben and Wentz. Wentz was benched, Big Ben is on the downside of his career and Goff is Kirk Cousins if he were drafted in the 1st round and thrown in right out of the gate.

The rest on the list below Cousins are rookies, backups or soon to be backups (Lock, Jones, Darnold). That should be very concerning to every Vikings fan.

The Panthers are #10? Weird. Teddy hasn't played very well, and I would have thought that Cousins would be ahead of him. I suppose they haven't run the ball that much with McCaffrey hurt the whole year.

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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 24, 2020 11:29:17 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by whoskmoon on Dec 24, 2020 11:29:17 GMT -6

Dec 24, 2020 10:04:35 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Dec 24, 2020 6:59:34 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

This, like passer rating, yards and TDs does not take into account the team around the QB and needs to be looked at with context. No stat is perfect on its own, and I am glad you brought up the team around the QB having an impact on a QB's ability to score.

It is a lot easier for Rodgers to put up points than Watson for instance, and it is pretty incredible what Watson is doing in Houston with what is surrounding him. No run game outside of him, everyone focusing on stopping him behind a worse Oline than we have.

Cousins doesn't have it as easy as some of the QBs ahead of him in terms of Oline, but overall the run game he has, the WR and TEs, should at least put him close to Tannehill. Instead he is well behind guys like Teddy and Stafford who don't have great lines, but also don't have the run game defenses are focusing on.

In fact, their are only 3 QBs making more than 10 million per year who are lower on this list than Cousins: Goff, Big Ben and Wentz. Wentz was benched, Big Ben is on the downside of his career and Goff is Kirk Cousins if he were drafted in the 1st round and thrown in right out of the gate.

The rest on the list below Cousins are rookies, backups or soon to be backups (Lock, Jones, Darnold). That should be very concerning to every Vikings fan.

The Panthers are #10? Weird. Teddy hasn't played very well, and I would have thought that Cousins would be ahead of him. I suppose they haven't run the ball that much with McCaffrey hurt the whole year.

Clearly Teddy must be doing something right.

Danchat
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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 24, 2020 12:53:31 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Dec 24, 2020 12:53:31 GMT -6

Dec 24, 2020 11:29:17 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Dec 24, 2020 10:04:35 GMT -6 Danchat said:

The Panthers are #10? Weird. Teddy hasn't played very well, and I would have thought that Cousins would be ahead of him. I suppose they haven't run the ball that much with McCaffrey hurt the whole year.

Clearly Teddy must be doing something right.

He's 0 for 8 in 4th quarter comeback and game-winning drives. He has been a surprisingly good scrambler, even better than he was in 2014-15. He's also got a healthy Y/A and QBR, but from what I've watched, he really struggles in the clutch situations. Threw a back-breaking pick in the 2nd Falcons game, missed an open receiver on a 4th down vs Chicago, completely screwed up the end of the Vikings game and gave us a chance, missed some more throws in the Packers game... he's stuck in a 8 game losing streak for a reason. His defense has been horrendous and a culprit for many of the losses, but he's got a very good WR trio who can get open at will. I expect more of him than this.

Last Edit: Dec 24, 2020 12:55:23 GMT -6 by Danchat

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[OC] QB Impact on Scoring - How Does Cousins Stack Up? Dec 24, 2020 17:07:50 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by VikingsBoss on Dec 24, 2020 17:07:50 GMT -6

Dec 24, 2020 11:29:17 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Dec 24, 2020 10:04:35 GMT -6 Danchat said:

The Panthers are #10? Weird. Teddy hasn't played very well, and I would have thought that Cousins would be ahead of him. I suppose they haven't run the ball that much with McCaffrey hurt the whole year.

Clearly Teddy must be doing something right.

He must be? An 8 game losing streak begs to differ.

He is doing something right by this rating system you created, that no one else uses and arrogantly has given you insight into how great a QB is... especially compared to "lazy Monday sports analysts". By your logic, they must be doing something right because they get paid to analyze football, and you do not.

At the risk of re-litigating the Teddy vs Kirk debate. Cousins has 29 TDs accounted for in 14 games. Bridgewater has 19 in 13. You want a QBs impact on scoring? What could be could be more concrete than their ACTUAL contribution to the scoreboards?

It has always come down to this with Teddy Truthers...advanced stats. Created bullsh*t stats that serve to make us forget that 441 attempts into this season Teddy Bridgewater has thrown only 14 TD passes for a team that is 3-10 in games in which he has played.

Cousins may not have a whole lot of an edge on Teddy Bridgewater, but any honest analysis of the two, lazy or no, is not going to rank Teddy Bridgewater better without doing a lot of heavy lifting beforehand to make it do so.

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