[OC] - Drafting QBs Early and the Art of Tanking

I agree that this is a better way of looking at it. I'd amend things slightly here though. After 3 years, a contract can be renegotiated. As I understand this, I guy can sign a mega extension after 3 seasons and never see his 5th year option picked up. That would be one more data point in your favor. 

The scout has a point too though... they get it wrong a lot... I think Reignman might have a rant or too about it. To me though, this is where my corporate mind takes over. Regardless of the situation, that's a pretty low success rate when you think about it. There's obviously some room for improvement and the team that figures it out will likely be the next dynasty so to speak. 

Here's the analysis for 1st Rd Picks from 2012-2016 and how many of them signed 2nd contracts with the original team that drafted them.

Parameters Used:
- Wanted a 5-yr period to compare to 5-yr period from my previous analysis on 5th yr options. The reason I chose 2012-2016 is because 2016 was the last Draft year where players would have signed a 2nd contract after the 5th yr.

- If a team placed a franchise tag/transition tag on the 1st Rd player after the 5th yr, I did count that as a 2nd contract (ie, Brandon Scherff)

- Even if a player signed a "minimal" 2nd yr contract, I did still count that towards a 2nd contract - even if the team declined the 5th yr option yr (ie, Nick Perry in 2012 - Packers declined 5th yr option for 2016 season, but signed him to "minimal" deal for 2016 anyway).

Results:
2012: 14 out of 32 players drafted in Rd 1 signed a 2nd contract with orig team that drafted them (44%)
2013: 11 out of 32 players drafted in Rd 1 signed a 2nd contract with orig team that drafted them (34%)
2014: 13 out of 32 players drafted in Rd 1 signed a 2nd contract with orig team that drafted them (41%)
2015: 8 out of 32 players drafted in Rd 1 signed a 2nd contract with orig team that drafted them (25%)
2016: 8 out of 31 players drafted in Rd 1 signed a 2nd contract with orig team that drafted them (25%)

Conclusions/Interesting Nuggets:
- Altogether, out of the 159 players drafted in Rd 1 between 2012-2016, only 54 or 34% of them signed a 2nd contract with the orig team that drafted them. That is more in-line w/ the % noted in the article on previous page where only 35% of players drafted in Rd 1 make a Pro Bowl.

- The numbers are slightly "skewed" to the "N" because of players like Khalil Mack - drafted in Rd 1 and would have likely signed a 2nd contract with the orig team (Raiders) but they traded him.

- Even drafting in the Top 10 doesn't guarantee you're getting a player that will be good enough to sign a 2nd contract w/ orig team; out of the 50 players drafted in the Top 10 from 2012-2016, only 20 (40%) of them signed a 2nd contract w/ orig team, which means you have a greater than 50% chance of drafting an alleged "bluechip" player that won't make it to Yr 6 on your team.

- There were 3 draft spots that were 0-for-5: #15 (B Irvin, K Vaccaro, R Shazier, M Gordon, C Coleman), #19 (S McClellin, J Pugh, J James, C Erving, S Lawson) and #32-last pick in Round 1 (D Wilson, M Elam, T Bridgewater, M Brown, G Ifedi). 

- In case you're wondering, pick #23 went 1-4, which means that Darrisaw has a 20% chance of signing a 2nd contract w/ the Vikes. Minnesota contributed to that 1-4 record for pick #23 in 2016 when they took Treadwell. 

Final Thought:
Even though the %'s for players signed that 2nd contract w/ their orig team are more in-line w/ the % of 1st Rd players that make the Pro Bowl, I still think that teams picking up the 5th yr option good be a better gauge in terms of the "value" of a 1st Rd pick. Similar to my previous example of Anthony Costanzo being a solid player drafted in Rd 1 who never made a Pro Bowl, there have been solid players drafted in Rd 1 like Stephon Gillmore, Chandler Jones, Riley Reiff and K Zeitler who were all drafted in Rd 1, didn't sign a 2nd contract w/ the original team that drafted them, but were/are very solid NFL players who I certainly would take in Round 1 - especially if you consider their cap dollars in Years 1-5 compared to prices for the same level of on-field production on the open market. 

Uncle great work. Probably a topic that needs more research to see if there is a solid reliable metric.
I will have to give this more thought. Certainly the probowl is a bad metric and I think we all agree on that.
It will also be interesting to see how GMs proceed with the 5th year option in future years now that the option is fully guarenteed once exercised, rather than the injury only guarentee of past years.

Yeah, the Dolphins are turning back into a tire fire at a rapid rate...




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I thought Flores was the next up-and-coming HC and the Dolphins' vast draft capital would lead a successful rebuild, but their GM has whiffed on most of the picks and the coaching has been way worse than it was in 2019/20.

Certainly, Tua has probably the worst running game, bottom 5 OL, and injured / middling receiver corps that is holding him back. Switch him with Herbert in LA, or even guys like Baker or Kyler and he’d be doing considerably better there.

But therein is the issue, Miami needs a QB who can rise above adversity… but by throwing their QBs into bad situations, they’re wasting them. Tannehill had potential to be more, like he is in Tennessee, they spent a 2nd on Josh Rosen just to give him a few starts in a terrible offense and now they’re ready to move on from Tua. Have some patience with him!