[OC] - Drafting QBs Early and the Art of Tanking
Nov 3, 2020 20:50:07 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 2 more like this
Post by Danchat on Nov 3, 2020 20:50:07 GMT -6
After some discussions in the Tank For...? thread, I thought it wise to go over the recent history of the highest QBs drafted every year. I chose to examine the top 8 drafted since 2010, and give them a simple coloring by my usual PFF standards.
Note: Some of the older player rankings are estimates.
First thoughts here... yikes! No Super Bowl rings for the 1st QBs drafted. Only Newton got his team there of this group. I think Andrew Luck is a shining example of how getting that golden goose "perfect" QB prospect works out - it doesn't lead to an automatic Super Bowl. He was a great QB, but even the greats have their limitations. He couldn't survive the onslaught of hits and sacks he took from having awful offensive lines, and retired just 6 years in. The Colts went 11-5 three times with him, but never topped that.
Luck also wilted come playoff time, posting a 2254/12/13 56.4% line while going 4-4. That's a QB rating drop of 16 points.
Moving on to QBs drafted second, we had a few college darlings who did not transition to the pro game well (Tebow, Smith, Manziel), a stud prospect whose career went off the rails after an ACL tear (RG3), a guy who stunk even in college (Locker), and a 5 tool prospect who just never figured it out (Mariota). Mariota is a confusing case to me; he's put up some really good numbers at times and has mobility and was a threat to run, but was very inconsistent. He'd have a few great games, and then play like complete garbage. In hindsight, I really can't blame the Redskins and Titans for going with RG3 and Mariota based on the circumstances, but they're both clear busts.
Still no Super Bowl rings for the 3rd QBs. You can tell which draft classes were stacked and which weren't, as we already have 3rd rounders in here. The 2010 and 2013 QB classes are complete laughingstocks. Tannehill and Bridgewater are "what-ifs" cases: what if Tannehill was drafted by a competent team that could develop him? What if Bridgewater never had the dislocated knee? They're quality QBs, but also not saviors.
As for the 4th, Carr is the only starter and he's fine. He's trending up again after having 3 disappointing years in a row - certainly a great 2nd round pick, but if you're thinking Super Bowl, he's not your guy. He's never played in a playoff game despite being in his 7th season (broken leg during his fantastic 2016 season). During the 2012 regular season, I distinctly remember fans of bad teams "blowing for Barkley". Matt Barkley was the shoo-in for the 1st pick before he regressed in his final year at college, and then plummeted on draft day.
5th QBs - Garoppolo was in the Super Bowl last year, and while it was a good year for him, he was far from the main reason why. He can't stay healthy, but he has a incredible 24-8 record as a starter. If only he made a couple better throws in the Super Bowl, he'd have a title.
6th QBs - And here's our first true Elite QB in Russell Wilson. It sure is hard to believe that teams chose Weeden and Osweiler over him. With the way his career has played out, he'd be worthy of a 1st overall selection.
7th QBs - Foles is here, after having one of the weirdest careers an athlete can have. Won a Super Bowl as the backup by putting the team on his back.
8th QBs - Cousins was part of a stacked QB class. Definitely a reason why teams should go after QB prospects in the mid-rounds, especially when they know it's a stacked here. And the Skins didn't even need a QB after they took RG3.
It's obviously early for the 2018-20 classes, but they're worth looking at.
Once again we have no rings for the 1st QBs... Goff got there once, but is essentially an average QB now. Trubisky went full bust, Mayfield is trending the wrong way, and Murray & Burrow are looking very good so far.
Wentz does have a ring, and should get some credit for it since he was the biggest reason why the Eagles got the 1st seed that year. But hasn't been able to stay healthy for a playoff run, and is now regressing hard. Mahomes is a franchise-saving stud. He definitely benefitted from being drafted by a competent organization, but he's an all-world QB. Darnold was once the surefire 1st overall pick, but ended up in a dumpster fire organization and is rotting away. Jones was not a 1st round prospect in my book, and while he certainly has some tools, he's not pushing the needle for the Giants.
3rd QBs: Lynch was so bad, the Broncos never game him a real chance to start. I don't think he was able to fix his arm motion to throw a football accurately. Watson is a great QB stuck in a bad organization; they could seriously contend if they could field a halfway-competent team around him. Allen was a risky prospect who seems to be panning out and could keep improving. Haskins looks like a bust, but also doomed once the Redskins took him. Herbert looks like the real deal thus far.
4th QBs: Ah, Christian Hackenberg. Truly one of the worst QBs and draft picks of all time. Couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Kizer was far worse than I anticipated, helping the Browns go 0-16. Rosen also busted insanely fast. Lock looks shaky, but needs more time.
5th QBs: Lamar Jackson is the perfect example of a boom-or-bust QB prospect landing in the right organization. Going from being a poor passer to being the NFL MVP in year 2 is quite a feat, but can he get this Ravens squad to a Super Bowl?
Others: The only other name worth mentioning is Dak Prescott. Another odd story of a guy getting a DUI the week before the draft, but then immediately gets the team to 13-3 in his first season while playing some really good football. He's a decisive QB, probably not worth $40M a year, but he's good. I think he'd be doing even better in a better organization.
Alright, so that's it for the QBs. What are some lessons we can take away from this?
So what shouldn't a team do?
Once again I went on really long here, but I'd love to hear what you guys think about this. Perhaps later I will go on about what I think the Vikings should do, but this is already long enough.
Note: Some of the older player rankings are estimates.
First thoughts here... yikes! No Super Bowl rings for the 1st QBs drafted. Only Newton got his team there of this group. I think Andrew Luck is a shining example of how getting that golden goose "perfect" QB prospect works out - it doesn't lead to an automatic Super Bowl. He was a great QB, but even the greats have their limitations. He couldn't survive the onslaught of hits and sacks he took from having awful offensive lines, and retired just 6 years in. The Colts went 11-5 three times with him, but never topped that.
Luck also wilted come playoff time, posting a 2254/12/13 56.4% line while going 4-4. That's a QB rating drop of 16 points.
Moving on to QBs drafted second, we had a few college darlings who did not transition to the pro game well (Tebow, Smith, Manziel), a stud prospect whose career went off the rails after an ACL tear (RG3), a guy who stunk even in college (Locker), and a 5 tool prospect who just never figured it out (Mariota). Mariota is a confusing case to me; he's put up some really good numbers at times and has mobility and was a threat to run, but was very inconsistent. He'd have a few great games, and then play like complete garbage. In hindsight, I really can't blame the Redskins and Titans for going with RG3 and Mariota based on the circumstances, but they're both clear busts.
Still no Super Bowl rings for the 3rd QBs. You can tell which draft classes were stacked and which weren't, as we already have 3rd rounders in here. The 2010 and 2013 QB classes are complete laughingstocks. Tannehill and Bridgewater are "what-ifs" cases: what if Tannehill was drafted by a competent team that could develop him? What if Bridgewater never had the dislocated knee? They're quality QBs, but also not saviors.
As for the 4th, Carr is the only starter and he's fine. He's trending up again after having 3 disappointing years in a row - certainly a great 2nd round pick, but if you're thinking Super Bowl, he's not your guy. He's never played in a playoff game despite being in his 7th season (broken leg during his fantastic 2016 season). During the 2012 regular season, I distinctly remember fans of bad teams "blowing for Barkley". Matt Barkley was the shoo-in for the 1st pick before he regressed in his final year at college, and then plummeted on draft day.
5th QBs - Garoppolo was in the Super Bowl last year, and while it was a good year for him, he was far from the main reason why. He can't stay healthy, but he has a incredible 24-8 record as a starter. If only he made a couple better throws in the Super Bowl, he'd have a title.
6th QBs - And here's our first true Elite QB in Russell Wilson. It sure is hard to believe that teams chose Weeden and Osweiler over him. With the way his career has played out, he'd be worthy of a 1st overall selection.
7th QBs - Foles is here, after having one of the weirdest careers an athlete can have. Won a Super Bowl as the backup by putting the team on his back.
8th QBs - Cousins was part of a stacked QB class. Definitely a reason why teams should go after QB prospects in the mid-rounds, especially when they know it's a stacked here. And the Skins didn't even need a QB after they took RG3.
It's obviously early for the 2018-20 classes, but they're worth looking at.
Once again we have no rings for the 1st QBs... Goff got there once, but is essentially an average QB now. Trubisky went full bust, Mayfield is trending the wrong way, and Murray & Burrow are looking very good so far.
Wentz does have a ring, and should get some credit for it since he was the biggest reason why the Eagles got the 1st seed that year. But hasn't been able to stay healthy for a playoff run, and is now regressing hard. Mahomes is a franchise-saving stud. He definitely benefitted from being drafted by a competent organization, but he's an all-world QB. Darnold was once the surefire 1st overall pick, but ended up in a dumpster fire organization and is rotting away. Jones was not a 1st round prospect in my book, and while he certainly has some tools, he's not pushing the needle for the Giants.
3rd QBs: Lynch was so bad, the Broncos never game him a real chance to start. I don't think he was able to fix his arm motion to throw a football accurately. Watson is a great QB stuck in a bad organization; they could seriously contend if they could field a halfway-competent team around him. Allen was a risky prospect who seems to be panning out and could keep improving. Haskins looks like a bust, but also doomed once the Redskins took him. Herbert looks like the real deal thus far.
4th QBs: Ah, Christian Hackenberg. Truly one of the worst QBs and draft picks of all time. Couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Kizer was far worse than I anticipated, helping the Browns go 0-16. Rosen also busted insanely fast. Lock looks shaky, but needs more time.
5th QBs: Lamar Jackson is the perfect example of a boom-or-bust QB prospect landing in the right organization. Going from being a poor passer to being the NFL MVP in year 2 is quite a feat, but can he get this Ravens squad to a Super Bowl?
Others: The only other name worth mentioning is Dak Prescott. Another odd story of a guy getting a DUI the week before the draft, but then immediately gets the team to 13-3 in his first season while playing some really good football. He's a decisive QB, probably not worth $40M a year, but he's good. I think he'd be doing even better in a better organization.
Alright, so that's it for the QBs. What are some lessons we can take away from this?
- 1) If you're a bad organization hoping to take a QB 1st overall to save your organization, well, give up. It's not impossible, but the next "surefire" QB isn't going to win you a Super Bowl if you field a crappy team around him. The last time a 1st overall QB won the Super Bowl, Eli Manning did it twice for the team that didn't draft him. Peyton Manning did it once for the team that drafted him, and it took until Year 9. There is no "get rich quick" scheme in the NFL.
- 2) Good organizations seem to pinpoint the right QBs. Many teams don't show up on this list because they've already had a good QB, but teams like the Chiefs, Seahawks, and the Ravens seem to know what they're doing. This extends to the past beyond 2010, with the Packers catching Rodgers, the Steelers taking Big Ben as the 3rd QB off the board, and so on. Teams that can put their QB into a strong infrastructure can enhance the career of an otherwise middle-the-road guy, or channel a good QB's play into a Super Bowl victory.
- 3) So is tanking bad then? Well, I have mixed feelings on that. The art of tanking has been a more successful endeavor in sports like baseball and basketball, but like those sports, I believe it requires a strong front office and coaching to be successful. Having incompetent owners and personnel can leave a franchise in the state of perpetual despair, a la Cleveland and Detroit. But competent teams can have a bad year or two and rebound. There are plenty of examples of this, but with the way the NFL works, teams can acquire talent through the free agent and trade markets very quickly.
There's nothing wrong with conceding a season, trading away veterans and trying out young players in my opinion, if it's followed up with finding a new QB and forging a new path to a Super Bowl. At some point a team's front office needs to realize when the team has hit their ceiling and must move on from their QB to get to the final goal - Kansas City's ballsy move to move up for Mahomes is the prime definition of this. They didn't need to tank, and were even able to bolster the team's depth when they traded Alex Smith away.
So what shouldn't a team do?
- 1) Do not draft a QB when your team is on the verge of firing a GM or HC. Align them! If you don't believe in your GM or HC, fire them now. Browns GM John Dorsey drafted Baker Mayfield 1st overall, he had a quality rookie season, and then they fired Dorsey right after that. Hue Jackson was a clown. Now a new GM/HC duo sits on Cleveland's throne, being forced by the owner to fix Mayfield, a guy who isn't theirs, and preventing them from going after a better solution.
Sam Darnold wasn't Gase's nor Douglas' guy, Goff was lucky to survive Jeff Fisher in his rookie year, Daniel Jones was Shurmur's project, but he got quickly canned... the list goes on. Pair your QB with your GM/HC so everyone is on the same page. There is nothing worse than having management having different agendas and not being attached to the current QB. Either be all in on a guy or all out. - 2) Do not draft a QB because you feel like you have to. Say what you will about the difference between a "reach" and a "value" pick both ending in a bust, but there have been times where a QB who clearly did not belong in the round he was taken, but the GM felt like he had to. Examples:
2011 TEN Jake Locker - Whomever watched Locker's tape and thought of him as a 1st round prospect was out of their mind.
2011 MIN Christian Ponder - What tools did Ponder have that made him a 1st rounder? He wasn't especially accurate, didn't have a strong arm, wasn't super fast... he was a mid-round prospect, but Spielman/Frazier felt like they had to get their QB of the future.
2012 CLE Brandon Weeden - Cleveland had the 4th overall pick and could have had anybody but Luck. Instead they moved up for a bad running back, and drafted a 29 year old mid round QB prospect with their second 1st rounder.
2013 BUF E. J. Manuel - Probably the most egregious name on this list. Nobody had Manuel as a 1st round prospect, but the Bills were desperate for a QB and took the best guy available. Unfortunately for them it was a tragically bad QB class.
2016 NYJ Christian Hackenberg - The Jets GM wanted a prospect to develop and took a guy who was a terrible passer at Penn State. This ended up preventing them from taking Mahomes and Watson the next draft - and they absolutely could have. He may have been a 2nd rounder, but his busting was devastating.
2019 NYG Daniel Jones - Obviously the jury is out on him, but he had a lackluster college career, and the Giants had a later 1st round pick to take him with. From what I know, NFL teams weren't eyeing him that high in the first round.
Once again I went on really long here, but I'd love to hear what you guys think about this. Perhaps later I will go on about what I think the Vikings should do, but this is already long enough.
... and neither is this Chris guy.