[OC] What happens when Zimmer defenses generate pressure?
I looked back at the passing games of teams the Vikings faced last year, comparing what happens when we generated pressure versus when we didn't. Not surprisingly, in most games the pass defense was much better when the QB was pressured. Somewhat surprisingly, is just how terrible a good number of QBs were against us when pressured.
Looking at the individual games in 2019, we see for the most part QBs struggled when pressured, especially backups and rookies:
That Giant's, Denver and 2nd Detroit games aren't typos. Jones, Allen and Blough were really that awful when the Dline applied pressure. I also took special pleasure in seeing just how bad Rodgers was when we pressured him. His game has regressed quite a bit, and I think his performance when pressured against good defenses is a big reason the Packers took Love.
On the flip side, we see Matt Moore somehow torched our defense when pressured. He actually did much better when pressured than not, one of only 4 QBs we faced who accomplished that feat. I also didn't realize we sacked him 5 times in that game. It didn't appear to matter as he still found guys open quickly. I will have to watch that game back, but I wonder if Zimmer blitzed quite a bit in that game with the backup in, and it burned him?
Regardless, we see that pressure, with the few exceptions of Wentz, Case, Moore, and Prescott (3 scrambling QBs and one with a horseshoe up his butt), shuts down opposing QBs in Zimmer's scheme. Much better than the average defense, with the league average passer rating against being 67.3.
Looking at what happens when a QB threw it because they believed their receiver was open against us, we see a huge increase in passer rating, TDs, and yards:
A few things we can see from this.
#1 The league average passer rating against is 100.13 when a QB is kept clean. That means the Vikings pass defense was just a little below average when they couldn't apply pressure. They were significantly better in YPA (7.9 league average versus 7.12), which tells us that the issue was the lack of picks. Zimmer doesn't teach his CBs to gamble, and I think we see it in this stat.
#2 Every QB can do well when un-pressured, even backups and rookies.
#3 Rivers and Jimmy G. couldn't figure out the Vikings coverage scheme. Both played poorly when they were pressured and when they were kept clean. It was a shame we couldn't stop the run against SF.
To summarize all of this, Zimmer's D, like all defenses, relies on pressuring the QB to make bad decisions with the football. Whether that is through good coverage forcing a QB to hold the ball too long, or a good pass rush getting to the QB quickly, his defenses are elite when applying pressure. It kind of makes me wonder about the decision to not add another pass rusher to the team this off season, and makes Griffen leaving seem like the biggest loss. Hopefully someone steps up big as the RDE, or it is going to be a long year.
Looking at the individual games in 2019, we see for the most part QBs struggled when pressured, especially backups and rookies:
| Team | ATL | GB | OAK | CHI | NYG | PHI | DET | WAS | KC | DAL | DEN | SEA | DET | LAC | GB | NO | SF | Totals For Pressure | Average/game pressured | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Drop Backs | 52 | 37 | 38 | 32 | 43 | 43 | 48 | 18 | 40 | 47 | 42 | 36 | 45 | 42 | 43 | 37 | 21 | 664 | 39.06 | |
| Pressured DBs | 20 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 23 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 229 | 13.47 | |
| Sack | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 47 | 2.76 | |
| Pressured Attempts | 16 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 176 | 0.13 | |
| Pressured Completions | 8 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 85 | 5.00 | |
| Throw Aways | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.18 | |
| Hit as thrown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.35 | |
| Drops | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.30 | |
| Yards | 94 | 72 | 23 | 35 | 8 | 136 | 125 | 32 | 147.00 | 179 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 101 | 47 | 24 | 30 | 1094 | 64.35 | |
| Yard per attempt | 5.88 | 4.00 | 3.29 | 3.89 | 0.73 | 9.71 | 5.95 | 8.00 | 21.00 | 8.95 | 1.91 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 14.43 | 4.27 | 4.80 | 7.50 | NA | 6.22 | |
| TDs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.35 | |
| Ints | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.59 | |
| DB % | 38.5 | 54.1 | 28.9 | 34.4 | 37.2 | 37.2 | 47.9 | 33.3 | 30 | 44.7 | 33.3 | 25 | 24.4 | 23.8 | 32.6 | 24.3 | 28.6 | NA | 0.34 | |
| Sak % | 20 | 10 | 36.4 | 9.1 | 25 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 33.3 | 41.7 | 4.8 | 14.3 | 22.2 | 45.5 | 30 | 21.4 | 33.3 | 33.3 | NA | 7.08% | |
| Compl % | 50 | 33.3 | 57.1 | 55.6 | 18.2 | 71.4 | 52.4 | 75 | 85.7 | 55 | 27.3 | 20 | 16.7 | 57.1 | 45.5 | 60 | 50 | NA | 48 % | |
| Adj Comp % | 53.3 | 50 | 66.7 | 62.5 | 22.2 | 76.9 | 57.9 | 75 | 85.7 | 66.7 | 42.9 | 20 | 20 | 66.7 | 55.6 | 75 | 100 | NA | NA | |
| Passer rating | 28.6 | 46.5 | 63 | 64 | 1 | 111 | 70 | 97 | 158 | 104 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 62 | 19 | 72 | 75 | 55.9 | NA |
That Giant's, Denver and 2nd Detroit games aren't typos. Jones, Allen and Blough were really that awful when the Dline applied pressure. I also took special pleasure in seeing just how bad Rodgers was when we pressured him. His game has regressed quite a bit, and I think his performance when pressured against good defenses is a big reason the Packers took Love.
On the flip side, we see Matt Moore somehow torched our defense when pressured. He actually did much better when pressured than not, one of only 4 QBs we faced who accomplished that feat. I also didn't realize we sacked him 5 times in that game. It didn't appear to matter as he still found guys open quickly. I will have to watch that game back, but I wonder if Zimmer blitzed quite a bit in that game with the backup in, and it burned him?
Regardless, we see that pressure, with the few exceptions of Wentz, Case, Moore, and Prescott (3 scrambling QBs and one with a horseshoe up his butt), shuts down opposing QBs in Zimmer's scheme. Much better than the average defense, with the league average passer rating against being 67.3.
Looking at what happens when a QB threw it because they believed their receiver was open against us, we see a huge increase in passer rating, TDs, and yards:
| Team | ATL | GB | OAK | CHI | NYG | PHI | DET | WAS | KC | DAL | DEN | SEA | DET | LAC | GB | NO | SF | Totals For Clean | Average/game kept Clean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Drop Backs | 52 | 37 | 38 | 32 | 43 | 43 | 48 | 18 | 40 | 47 | 42 | 36 | 45 | 42 | 43 | 37 | 21 | 664 | 39.06 |
| Total Attempts | 46 | 35 | 34 | 30 | 38 | 40 | 45 | 16 | 35 | 46 | 39 | 31 | 40 | 39 | 40 | 33 | 19 | 606 | 35.65 |
| DB % Kept Clean | 61.5 | 45.9 | 71.1 | 65.6 | 62.8 | 62.8 | 52.1 | 66.7 | 70 | 55.3 | 66.7 | 75 | 75.6 | 76.2 | 67.4 | 75.7 | 71.4 | NA | 66 % |
| Clean DBs | 32 | 17 | 27 | 21 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 12 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 27 | 34 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 15 | 435 | 25.59 |
| Attempts Clean | 30 | 17 | 27 | 21 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 12 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 34 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 15 | 430 | 25.29 |
| Completions Clean | 25 | 17 | 23 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 9 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 23 | 9 | 315 | 18.53 |
| Comp % | 83.3 | 100 | 85.2 | 81 | 70.4 | 61.5 | 79.2 | 75 | 67.9 | 65.4 | 50 | 76.9 | 67.6 | 75 | 72.4 | 82.1 | 60 | NA | 73 % |
| Yards | 210 | 143 | 219 | 160 | 174 | 170 | 239 | 98 | 128 | 218 | 219 | 230 | 195 | 206 | 169 | 184 | 101 | 3063 | 180.18 |
| Yard per attempt | 7.00 | 8.41 | 8.11 | 7.62 | 6.44 | 6.54 | 9.96 | 8.17 | 4.57 | 8.38 | 7.82 | 8.85 | 5.74 | 6.44 | 5.83 | 6.57 | 6.73 | NA | 7.12 |
| TDs | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1.12 |
| Ints | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.41 |
| Adj Comp % | 83.3 | 100 | 88.9 | 81 | 70.4 | 69.2 | 79.2 | 75 | 73.1 | 69.2 | 60 | 76.9 | 83.9 | 77.4 | 82.8 | 88.5 | 66.7 | NA | NA |
| Passer rating | 118 | 140 | 109 | 114 | 100 | 80 | 130 | 98 | 77 | 91 | 88 | 112 | 92 | 75 | 86 | 91 | 74 | 100.70 | NA |
A few things we can see from this.
#1 The league average passer rating against is 100.13 when a QB is kept clean. That means the Vikings pass defense was just a little below average when they couldn't apply pressure. They were significantly better in YPA (7.9 league average versus 7.12), which tells us that the issue was the lack of picks. Zimmer doesn't teach his CBs to gamble, and I think we see it in this stat.
#2 Every QB can do well when un-pressured, even backups and rookies.
#3 Rivers and Jimmy G. couldn't figure out the Vikings coverage scheme. Both played poorly when they were pressured and when they were kept clean. It was a shame we couldn't stop the run against SF.
To summarize all of this, Zimmer's D, like all defenses, relies on pressuring the QB to make bad decisions with the football. Whether that is through good coverage forcing a QB to hold the ball too long, or a good pass rush getting to the QB quickly, his defenses are elite when applying pressure. It kind of makes me wonder about the decision to not add another pass rusher to the team this off season, and makes Griffen leaving seem like the biggest loss. Hopefully someone steps up big as the RDE, or it is going to be a long year.
