[OC] What happens when Zimmer defenses generate pressure?


Aug 22, 2020 17:55:28 GMT -6 35 Replies
I looked back at the passing games of teams the Vikings faced last year, comparing what happens when we generated pressure versus when we didn't.  Not surprisingly, in most games the pass defense was much better when the QB was pressured.  Somewhat surprisingly, is just how terrible a good number of QBs were against us when pressured.

Looking at the individual games in 2019, we see for the most part QBs struggled when pressured, especially backups and rookies:


TeamATLGBOAKCHINYGPHIDETWASKCDALDENSEADETLACGBNOSFTotals For PressureAverage/game pressured
Total Drop Backs523738324343481840474236454243372166439.06
Pressured DBs20201111161623612211491110149622913.47
Sack42414222512253332472.76
Pressured Attempts 16187911142147201156711541760.13
Pressured Completions86452101136113114532855.00
Throw Aways14112000014011211201.18
Hit as thrown0200012001000000060.35
Drops0000000001000000120.30
Yards94722335813612532147.00179211010101472430109464.35
Yard per attempt5.884.003.293.890.739.715.958.0021.008.951.912.001.6714.434.274.807.50NA6.22
TDs0000020013000000060.35
Ints20001100011021100100.59
DB %38.554.128.934.437.237.247.933.33044.733.32524.423.832.624.328.6NA0.34
Sak %201036.49.12512.58.733.341.74.814.322.245.53021.433.333.3NA7.08%
Compl %5033.357.155.618.271.452.47585.75527.32016.757.145.56050NA48 %
Adj Comp %53.35066.762.522.276.957.97585.766.742.9202066.755.675100NANA
Passer rating28.646.563641111709715810413906219727555.9NA

That Giant's, Denver and 2nd Detroit games aren't typos. Jones, Allen and Blough were really that awful when the Dline applied pressure.  I also took special pleasure in seeing just how bad Rodgers was when we pressured him.  His game has regressed quite a bit, and I think his performance when pressured against good defenses is a big reason the Packers took Love.  

On the flip side, we see Matt Moore somehow torched our defense when pressured.  He actually did much better when pressured than not, one of only 4 QBs we faced who accomplished that feat.  I also didn't realize we sacked him 5 times in that game.  It didn't appear to matter as he still found guys open quickly.  I will have to watch that game back, but I wonder if Zimmer blitzed quite a bit in that game with the backup in, and it burned him?

Regardless, we see that pressure, with the few exceptions of Wentz, Case, Moore, and Prescott (3 scrambling QBs and one with a horseshoe up his butt), shuts down opposing QBs in Zimmer's scheme. Much better than the average defense, with the league average passer rating against being 67.3.


Looking at what happens when a QB threw it because they believed their receiver was open against us, we see a huge increase in passer rating, TDs, and yards:


TeamATLGBOAKCHINYGPHIDETWASKCDALDENSEADETLACGBNOSFTotals For CleanAverage/game kept Clean
Total Drop Backs523738324343481840474236454243372166439.06
Total Attempts463534303840451635463931403940331960635.65
DB % Kept Clean61.545.971.165.662.862.852.166.77055.366.77575.676.267.475.771.4NA66 %
Clean DBs321727212727251228262827343229281543525.59
Attempts Clean301727212726241228262826343229281543025.29
Completions Clean2517231719161991917142023242123931518.53
Comp %83.310085.28170.461.579.27567.965.45076.967.67572.482.160NA73 %
Yards210143219160174170239981282182192301952061691841013063180.18
Yard per attempt7.008.418.117.626.446.549.968.174.578.387.828.855.746.445.836.576.73NA7.12
TDs22211040001211011191.12
Ints0010001000010201170.41
Adj Comp %83.310088.98170.469.279.27573.169.26076.983.977.482.888.566.7NANA
Passer rating11814010911410080130987791881129275869174100.70NA

A few things we can see from this.

#1  The league average passer rating against is 100.13 when a QB is kept clean.  That means the Vikings pass defense was just a little below average when they couldn't apply pressure.  They were significantly better in YPA (7.9 league average versus 7.12), which tells us that the issue was the lack of picks.  Zimmer doesn't teach his CBs to gamble, and I think we see it in this stat.

#2  Every QB can do well when un-pressured, even backups and rookies.  

#3 Rivers and Jimmy G. couldn't figure out the Vikings coverage scheme.   Both played poorly when they were pressured and when they were kept clean.  It was a shame we couldn't stop the run against SF.  

To summarize all of this, Zimmer's D, like all defenses, relies on pressuring the QB to make bad decisions with the football.  Whether that is through good coverage forcing a QB to hold the ball too long, or a good pass rush getting to the QB quickly, his defenses are elite when applying pressure.  It kind of makes me wonder about the decision to not add another pass rusher to the team this off season, and makes Griffen leaving seem like the biggest loss.  Hopefully someone steps up big as the RDE, or it is going to be a long year.  

[OC] What happens when Zimmer defenses generate pressure?

Shoutbox

salamander: Not feeling good unless we can find a QB. Haven't had a great one in a looooooong time. Feb 22, 2024 13:43:06 GMT -6
Reignman: March 11th, 2024 will live in history as Kirk Cousins Independence Day *cheerleader* Mar 11, 2024 16:34:20 GMT -6
salbrecht: Why can Pittsburg sign Russel Wilson fo 1.2 million and we get Sam Darnold for 10 million?? Mar 13, 2024 18:31:25 GMT -6
Reignman: when you put it like that, it's a real head scratcher, but this franchise is all about their precious culture, so I imagine they passed on a guy like Russ over something silly like that ... Darnold will have a big smile when he's throwing all the INT's Mar 14, 2024 17:44:47 GMT -6
shandman: If I am NE, I seriously consider getting Justin Fields and roll with Fields/Brisset this year.

For Vikings to actually pull this off they probably have to trade #11, #23 and 2025 first rounder. In return, they hopefully get #3 overall this year and NE's
Mar 15, 2024 19:29:01 GMT -6
glenwo2: Saying that Darnold will have a big smile when he's throwing all the INT's is quite the Take, Reignman. Mar 16, 2024 20:17:05 GMT -6
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