Post by Purple Pain on Aug 5, 2020 8:18:56 GMT -6
Simple variables like score, venue and date of each game are the core of most rating systems — these are then input into a calculation to measure past performance. But utilizing historical point spread and total odds — instead of game score — shows how betting markets viewed each team pregame.
Because 2020 odds are currently available, we can build build market-implied power ratings based on the latest information for each team. By updating our offensive and defensive ratings using this approach, we get a useful look into how the betting market measures each team's strength at the start of this season.
Let’s take a look at where all 32 teams stack up using this method.
THE CONTENDERS
BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Ravens edge out the Chiefs by the slimmest of margins on the strength of their defense making up enough ground to overcome the Chiefs' league-leading offense. They have the sixth-easiest schedule in this rating system, making their path to the AFC championship clear from the outset. Their implied probability of 23.8% to reach the Super Bowl sits just 1.2% behind the Chiefs' chances. Despite fonder memories for how the Chiefs wrapped up their 2019 season, betting markets have these teams much closer than what the general public currently sees.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Future markets would flip the top two rated teams in this exercise, as the Chiefs are the odds-on favorite in every season-long betting category. Their 11.5 win total either has marked up juice or sits a half game ahead of the Ravens' current price. They sit just outside the top 10 teams for the easiest 2020 schedule. It is hard to not side with Patrick Mahomes after last season’s playoff run despite limited expectations for their defensive performance. Week 3’s Monday night matchup will have significant implications on the ratings for these top two teams and will hopefully serve as a preview for the future matchup in the AFC playoffs.
DALLAS COWBOYS
The first team from the NFC actually has the fourth most-likely odds (10.5% implied probability) of reaching the Super Bowl from this conference. Dallas is always known for a slight lean from betting markets, but 2.5 point road favorites Week 1 followed by touchdown favorites over a quality Falcons team in Week 2 has this ratings system sky high on the Cowboys. The NFC is littered with veteran quarterbacks, but Dak Prescott could be at the center of the best offense in the NFC. If they reach that status, then Dak will be the next entry on a growing list of young quarterbacks who are taking over the NFL at the perfect time to sign a multi-year contract.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
If Dallas was a shock at No. 3, then the Vikings feel like a heart attack at four. The Vikings are one of only two defenses that have a positive rating metric in this exercise, which causes them to rise considerably in this process. Minnesota has the seventh most-likely odds of winning the NFC and sits at 58.8% implied probability to make the playoffs. The Vikings move four places from their ELO rankings in this exercise and leapfrog their division-rival Packers in the process. The front-runner for the NFC North will be sorted out early, as the Vikings open their Week 1 schedule as 3.5-point favorites over the Packers. They would be slightly favored if playing on a neutral site, which is a big reason we see them jump so many teams by using this approach.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Fourth in our ELO rankings but fifth in this process, the Saints have one of the five most difficult schedules in the NFL. This is highlighted by their Week 1 matchup as 4-point home favorites against the revamped Buccaneers. They are dinged in this process that takes nothing related to their continuity into context. If the end of last season was any indication, the Saints could face an uphill battle to remain relevant in the NFC.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49ers appear to be an afterthought in the NFC, with some projecting a step back after a Super Bowl performance that saw them at one point with a 95% in-game win probability. They are the odds-on favorite to win the NFC championship but aren’t aggressively priced in their early-season action against weaker teams. They have the 12th-easiest strength of schedule according to this rating metric and the third-easiest in the NFC. Not many know what to make of Jimmy Garoppolo, which makes the 49ers one of the toughest teams to handicap in 2020.
Because 2020 odds are currently available, we can build build market-implied power ratings based on the latest information for each team. By updating our offensive and defensive ratings using this approach, we get a useful look into how the betting market measures each team's strength at the start of this season.
Let’s take a look at where all 32 teams stack up using this method.
THE CONTENDERS
BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Ravens edge out the Chiefs by the slimmest of margins on the strength of their defense making up enough ground to overcome the Chiefs' league-leading offense. They have the sixth-easiest schedule in this rating system, making their path to the AFC championship clear from the outset. Their implied probability of 23.8% to reach the Super Bowl sits just 1.2% behind the Chiefs' chances. Despite fonder memories for how the Chiefs wrapped up their 2019 season, betting markets have these teams much closer than what the general public currently sees.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Future markets would flip the top two rated teams in this exercise, as the Chiefs are the odds-on favorite in every season-long betting category. Their 11.5 win total either has marked up juice or sits a half game ahead of the Ravens' current price. They sit just outside the top 10 teams for the easiest 2020 schedule. It is hard to not side with Patrick Mahomes after last season’s playoff run despite limited expectations for their defensive performance. Week 3’s Monday night matchup will have significant implications on the ratings for these top two teams and will hopefully serve as a preview for the future matchup in the AFC playoffs.
DALLAS COWBOYS
The first team from the NFC actually has the fourth most-likely odds (10.5% implied probability) of reaching the Super Bowl from this conference. Dallas is always known for a slight lean from betting markets, but 2.5 point road favorites Week 1 followed by touchdown favorites over a quality Falcons team in Week 2 has this ratings system sky high on the Cowboys. The NFC is littered with veteran quarterbacks, but Dak Prescott could be at the center of the best offense in the NFC. If they reach that status, then Dak will be the next entry on a growing list of young quarterbacks who are taking over the NFL at the perfect time to sign a multi-year contract.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
If Dallas was a shock at No. 3, then the Vikings feel like a heart attack at four. The Vikings are one of only two defenses that have a positive rating metric in this exercise, which causes them to rise considerably in this process. Minnesota has the seventh most-likely odds of winning the NFC and sits at 58.8% implied probability to make the playoffs. The Vikings move four places from their ELO rankings in this exercise and leapfrog their division-rival Packers in the process. The front-runner for the NFC North will be sorted out early, as the Vikings open their Week 1 schedule as 3.5-point favorites over the Packers. They would be slightly favored if playing on a neutral site, which is a big reason we see them jump so many teams by using this approach.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Fourth in our ELO rankings but fifth in this process, the Saints have one of the five most difficult schedules in the NFL. This is highlighted by their Week 1 matchup as 4-point home favorites against the revamped Buccaneers. They are dinged in this process that takes nothing related to their continuity into context. If the end of last season was any indication, the Saints could face an uphill battle to remain relevant in the NFC.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49ers appear to be an afterthought in the NFC, with some projecting a step back after a Super Bowl performance that saw them at one point with a 95% in-game win probability. They are the odds-on favorite to win the NFC championship but aren’t aggressively priced in their early-season action against weaker teams. They have the 12th-easiest strength of schedule according to this rating metric and the third-easiest in the NFC. Not many know what to make of Jimmy Garoppolo, which makes the 49ers one of the toughest teams to handicap in 2020.
THE PRETENDERS
CHICAGO BEARS
ATLANTA FALCONS
DENVER BRONCOS
DETROIT LIONS
BUFFALO BILLS
TENNESSEE TITANS
CLEVELAND BROWNS
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
HOUSTON TEXANS
CAROLINA PANTHERS
ARIZONA CARDINALS
NEW YORK GIANTS
CINCINNATI BENGALS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
MIAMI DOLPHINS
NEW YORK JETS
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
CHICAGO BEARS
ATLANTA FALCONS
DENVER BRONCOS
DETROIT LIONS
BUFFALO BILLS
TENNESSEE TITANS
CLEVELAND BROWNS
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
HOUSTON TEXANS
CAROLINA PANTHERS
ARIZONA CARDINALS
NEW YORK GIANTS
CINCINNATI BENGALS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
MIAMI DOLPHINS
NEW YORK JETS
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
More at the link above.
... and neither is this Chris guy.