Have we been wrong about the Oline all along?
Aug 4, 2020 9:32:44 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 1 more like this
Post by whoskmoon on Aug 4, 2020 9:32:44 GMT -6
For nearly 15 years, the Oline has been the goat of the Vikings organization to fans and media members alike. Every time the team fails to score points, it seems the Oline is to blame, and just about every failed season could have been a success if the Oline was better. There is interesting psychology surrounding fans' need to blame someone for a loss, and that blame almost always falling on the Oline, but that is not what this thread is about. This is about proving fans wrong...mostly...sometimes.
To do that, I looked at actual total pressure, sacks,hits, hurries and penalties and compared them to the team in our division most would say has been the most consistent Oline in the division over the past 3 seasons.
Not a significant difference in any of the metrics this past year between PFF's #4 graded pass blocking team and PFF's 27th graded pass blocking team. 2018 we see a huge difference and clearly there were issues on the line that year. 2017 surprised me, as it appears the line was almost as bad in 2017 as 2018 at pass blocking.
So, at least from a pressure, sack, hits, hurries and penalty standpoint, the Oline did not deserve to be the goat of the 2019 season. At least not on average.
What about against the better defensive lines though? Surely the Oline for the Vikings struggled against the better Dlines more than the Packers Oline did. The answer is yes to that of course, and this might explain part of the discrepancy in grade between the two teams.
This gets a little tricky because both teams played each other twice, and both were one of the better pass rushing teams. Since the Packer pass rush was only a little better than the Vikings from a PFF grading standpoint, I am going to count them as common opponents respectively.
It looks like outside of Philly, GB did much better against the better pass rushes this past year than the Vikings did. They still gave up more pressure than their average in nearly every game, but the increase wasn't as much as the Viking's.
Does this mean the Oline truly is the goat and is terrible like we all believe?
Short answer, no. The Vikings Oline was below average but not horrible.
The average pressure percentage given up by the Oline per pass during the regular season was 26%, while the Vikings Oline gave up pressures on 28 % of pass attempts (notice the difference from the number above, this is due to that number coming from the team overall, not just the Oline). Not significant, and amounts to less than a pressure a game. Now, they are miles away from KC and Baltimore, who gave up pressure on 15% and 18%, but it would be easy to get to average this year, even above average with just slight improvement on the line.
Bad news? Even with that improvement, they will still struggle against the better Dlines of the NFL.
To do that, I looked at actual total pressure, sacks,hits, hurries and penalties and compared them to the team in our division most would say has been the most consistent Oline in the division over the past 3 seasons.
| 2019 | Packers | Vikings | 2018 | Packers | Vikings | 2017 | Packers | Vikings | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pressure % | 32.63% | 34.73% | Pressure % | 30.60% | 38.57% | Pressure % | 34.82% | 36.94% | ||
| Hurries % | 23.02% | 23.73% | Hurries % | 21.45% | 27.95% | Hurries % | 23.47% | 25.53% | ||
| Sack % | 5.23% | 5.93% | Sack % | 5.33% | 5.08% | Sack % | 6.60% | 3.30% | ||
| Penalty % | 9.75% | 10.82% | Penalty % | 7.38% | 7.47% | Penalty % | 5.98% | 8.56% | ||
| Hit % | 4.38% | 5.06% | Hit % | 3.83% | 5.53% | Hit % | 4.75% | 8.11% | ||
| Drop Backs | 708 | 573 | Drop Backs | 732 | 669 | Drop Backs | 652 | 666 | ||
Not a significant difference in any of the metrics this past year between PFF's #4 graded pass blocking team and PFF's 27th graded pass blocking team. 2018 we see a huge difference and clearly there were issues on the line that year. 2017 surprised me, as it appears the line was almost as bad in 2017 as 2018 at pass blocking.
So, at least from a pressure, sack, hits, hurries and penalty standpoint, the Oline did not deserve to be the goat of the 2019 season. At least not on average.
What about against the better defensive lines though? Surely the Oline for the Vikings struggled against the better Dlines more than the Packers Oline did. The answer is yes to that of course, and this might explain part of the discrepancy in grade between the two teams.
This gets a little tricky because both teams played each other twice, and both were one of the better pass rushing teams. Since the Packer pass rush was only a little better than the Vikings from a PFF grading standpoint, I am going to count them as common opponents respectively.
| Opponent | Packer Pressure Percentage Allowed | Viking Pressure Percentage Allowed | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB/Vikings #1 | 41.03% | 56.41% | |
| GB/Vikings #2 | 33.33% | 47.37% | |
| Bears #1 | 35.00% | 45.45% | |
| SF Playoffs | 20.45% | 50.00% | |
| Philly? | 39.06% | 25.71% | |
It looks like outside of Philly, GB did much better against the better pass rushes this past year than the Vikings did. They still gave up more pressure than their average in nearly every game, but the increase wasn't as much as the Viking's.
Does this mean the Oline truly is the goat and is terrible like we all believe?
Short answer, no. The Vikings Oline was below average but not horrible.
The average pressure percentage given up by the Oline per pass during the regular season was 26%, while the Vikings Oline gave up pressures on 28 % of pass attempts (notice the difference from the number above, this is due to that number coming from the team overall, not just the Oline). Not significant, and amounts to less than a pressure a game. Now, they are miles away from KC and Baltimore, who gave up pressure on 15% and 18%, but it would be easy to get to average this year, even above average with just slight improvement on the line.
Bad news? Even with that improvement, they will still struggle against the better Dlines of the NFL.
... and neither is this Chris guy.