Vikings Cuts 2020

vikingpwr
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 19:47:06 GMT -6

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Post by vikingpwr on Sept 5, 2020 19:47:06 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 19:21:33 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Both are bad examples because they actually didn't get drafted. Actually a ton of players in the NFL don't get drafted. They didn't need to trade back at all to get either one. So if you can get better players as UDFAs why do you need to trade prime picks for late round picks?

I think you are missing the point of the arguement all together though

If you drafted for 10 years for an nfl team would you rather

1. Have 10 3rd round picks

Or

2. 20 combined 5th/6th round picks

They might've been undrafted players , but I believe wivikesfan point was that this team develops players that walk on like Thielen or select a Anthony Harris who slipped in the draft due to an injury and work with them.
This coaching staff has identified good football players and developed them.

Holton Hill, Mata'afa....and the late rounders like:

Sharmar Stephen, Stephen Weatherly, Jayron Kearse, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Armon Watts, Oli, Kris Boyd, Bisi Johnson, Austin Cutting

vikingpwr Living Legend Posts: 21,398 Likes: 4,607	Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 19:49:07 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingpwr on Sept 5, 2020 19:49:07 GMT -6 Sept 5, 2020 19:29:27 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said: You know the talent gap right? Please elaborate.

legendsofthenorth
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 19:55:23 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by legendsofthenorth on Sept 5, 2020 19:55:23 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 19:47:06 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 5, 2020 19:21:33 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Both are bad examples because they actually didn't get drafted. Actually a ton of players in the NFL don't get drafted. They didn't need to trade back at all to get either one. So if you can get better players as UDFAs why do you need to trade prime picks for late round picks?

I think you are missing the point of the arguement all together though

If you drafted for 10 years for an nfl team would you rather

1. Have 10 3rd round picks

Or

2. 20 combined 5th/6th round picks

They might've been undrafted players , but I believe wivikesfan point was that this team develops players that walk on like Thielen or select a Anthony Harris who slipped in the draft due to an injury and work with them.
This coaching staff has identified good football players and developed them.

Holton Hill, Mata'afa....and the late rounders like:

Sharmar Stephen, Stephen Weatherly, Jayron Kearse, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Armon Watts, Oli, Kris Boyd, Bisi Johnson, Austin Cutting

Which one of these couldn't have been picked with our normal picks?

I am not going to argue anymore on this because I clearly feel strongly that there is a clear talent gap between rounds of picks. Your arguments are always going to be 1. Pick outlier names to throw at me and 2. Say these late round picks are contributors.

I will say it a different way then.

Next year would rather have the following picks
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Or
1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7.

legendsofthenorth
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 19:57:09 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by legendsofthenorth on Sept 5, 2020 19:57:09 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 19:49:07 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 5, 2020 19:29:27 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

You know the talent gap right?

Please elaborate.

10 4

I can do it with one simple question.

What player on my list would you trade for 4 of the list of 9 produced?

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 20:28:26 GMT -6 Purple Pain likes this

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Post by Danchat on Sept 5, 2020 20:28:26 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 19:35:01 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Does it mention anything on the players they may have missed out on by trading back?

I compared the trades head-to-head, but I did not examine any of the players that could have been taken over that stretch. In the end, I found only a single trade down where the opposing team scooped up a prospect that panned out really well and the Vikings' side came up short. Well, there was also one trade where the Vikings moved down and the Falcons got Pro Bowler DT Grady Jarrett, which sounds bad... but then they took Stefon Diggs with their highest pick.

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 20:28:51 GMT -6 via mobile Danchat likes this

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Post by legendsofthenorth on Sept 5, 2020 20:28:51 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 19:30:47 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Sept 5, 2020 19:21:33 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

If you drafted for 10 years for an nfl team would you rather

1. Have 10 3rd round picks

Or

2. 20 combined 5th/6th round picks

Obviously they'd take the 10 3rd rounders, no question. But Spielman isn't trading 3rd rounders to get several 5ths and 6ths, he usually trades out of the 3rd round and 8-10 spots into the 4th round and gets a 5th/6th/7th(s). See the Jaleel Johnson, Jalyn Holmes, and D. J. Wonnum trades for examples.

IMO it really doesn't help or hurt the team very much. I wrote an article on Vikings trades a while back and analyzed this subject.

You didn't tell me that it was an essay....hahaha. it's going to take me 3 days to get through this. How long did that take you?

Danchat
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 20:30:53 GMT -6 Purple Pain and legendsofthenorth like this

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Post by Danchat on Sept 5, 2020 20:30:53 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 20:28:51 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Sept 5, 2020 19:30:47 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Obviously they'd take the 10 3rd rounders, no question. But Spielman isn't trading 3rd rounders to get several 5ths and 6ths, he usually trades out of the 3rd round and 8-10 spots into the 4th round and gets a 5th/6th/7th(s). See the Jaleel Johnson, Jalyn Holmes, and D. J. Wonnum trades for examples.

IMO it really doesn't help or hurt the team very much. I wrote an article on Vikings trades a while back and analyzed this subject.

You didn't tell me that it was an essay....hahaha. it's going to take me 3 days to get through this. How long did that take you?

I think it took two weeks.

whoskmoon
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 20:57:14 GMT -6 via mobile huthuthike, coolbreeze44, and 1 more like this

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Post by whoskmoon on Sept 5, 2020 20:57:14 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 19:17:08 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 5, 2020 18:57:10 GMT -6 wivikesfan said:

It might be a little early to declare that. If we can get a few guys back on our practice squad maybe someone will develop. Its not like we haven't developed players who did nothing early... Theilen and Harris are two pretty good examples!

Sharmar Stephen, Stephen Weatherly, Jayron Kearse, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Armon Watts, Oli, Kris Boyd, Bisi Johnson, Austin Cutting

None of those guys amounted to anything more than solid depth. Stephen is starting by default, but shouldn't be.

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 21:04:37 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by whoskmoon on Sept 5, 2020 21:04:37 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 15:49:05 GMT -6 dougpaschal said:

Actually most of those "trade back" guys made the team. Gladney (of course) Wonnum/Lynch/Hand/Osborne. Willekes will probably be kept on IR and you have figure Stanley and Brandel will end up on the PS

Gladney could have been picked without trading back. The rest I could care less about, but most could have been drafted without trading back as well.

In the end, Rick was trading back to pick up late round picks in a draft nearly every other GM was looking at the off season and realizing it would be hard for those late rounders to make the team.

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 21:05:29 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Sept 5, 2020 21:05:29 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 20:57:14 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Sept 5, 2020 19:17:08 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sharmar Stephen, Stephen Weatherly, Jayron Kearse, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Armon Watts, Oli, Kris Boyd, Bisi Johnson, Austin Cutting

None of those guys amounted to anything more than solid depth. Stephen is starting by default, but shouldn't be.

Cutting is a starter! *paranoid*

The list from Odenigbo on are still on their rookie deals and on the team, so it's too early to say they haven't amounted to anything.

wivikesfan
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 21:07:01 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by wivikesfan on Sept 5, 2020 21:07:01 GMT -6

I get that 2nd or 3rd rounders have a higher hit rate, but we aren't talking about opting out of 2nd or 3rd round picks typically... this year we drafted 4 players in the top 3 rounds and 3 last year.

However when you talk about the hot rate from the 5th round through the 7th round, the hit rate is not that different. I'd say it is more about quantity once you get into the later rounds.

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 21:10:08 GMT -6 via mobile legendsofthenorth likes this

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Post by whoskmoon on Sept 5, 2020 21:10:08 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 20:28:26 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Sept 5, 2020 19:35:01 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Does it mention anything on the players they may have missed out on by trading back?

I compared the trades head-to-head, but I did not examine any of the players that could have been taken over that stretch. In the end, I found only a single trade down where the opposing team scooped up a prospect that panned out really well and the Vikings' side came up short. Well, there was also one trade where the Vikings moved down and the Falcons got Pro Bowler DT Grady Jarrett, which sounds bad... but then they took Stefon Diggs with their highest pick.

The trades may not have hurt, but when you trade back and 2 players better than the one you take next are drafted before you pick again, it is possible the Vikings lost out on two better players. Not necessarily, because we have no idea if they were options on the Vikes board, but it is a possibility.

On day 3 I would prefer the Vikings trade up not down. Identify guys you want, instead of trying to increase your odds of lucking into a player.

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 22:16:59 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2020 22:16:59 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 21:07:01 GMT -6 wivikesfan said:

However when you talk about the hot rate from the 5th round through the 7th round, the hit rate is not that different. I'd say it is more about quantity once you get into the later rounds.

I've busted this myth so many times,and posted the stats so many times,but it still keeps coming up.

Here's a couple examples:

OL

RD	SUCCESS RATE
4	29%
5	16%
6	16%
7	9%

DL

RD	SUCCESS RATE
4	37%
5	13%
6	13%
7	3%

Draft a DL in round 4 and you have a 37% chance of him working out.Drafting a DL in each of the 5th,6th and 7th rounds and you have a 13% chance of the 5th or 6th rounder working out or a 3% chance of the 7th rounder working out.
It's similar for OT and it carries through for every position.

Give me quality over quantity every time.

vikingpwr Living Legend Posts: 21,398 Likes: 4,607	Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 5, 2020 22:27:08 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingpwr on Sept 5, 2020 22:27:08 GMT -6 Sept 5, 2020 19:55:23 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said: I am not going to argue anymore on this Neither am I........