Vikings Need To Risk Change

From the get-go this off-season, Vikings’ head coach Mike Zimmer was looking to make some changes, and knew others were coming. He changed up his defensive coaching staff, and either released or let-go several long-time core defensive players. He was looking for new scheme ideas, and took on Dom Capers for insight in that regard.

Offensively, Gary Kubiak has taken the reigns and appears to be ready to make some changes along the offensive line.

Even if the Vikings had more salary cap space to work with, these changes would still be needed. They’re needed for the Vikings to become a better football team. Are they guaranteed? Nope. They’re calculated risks. The Vikings need to get better in some areas, and maintaining the status quo isn’t going to lead to improvement, so change is a prerequisite for that to happen.

Let’s look at what those changes are, and why they’re necessary for improvement.

Defensive Changes

The Vikings had a top 5 defensive unit last season, based on two key strengths according to PFF:

- They were the best tackling defense in the league;

- They were the third best defense in coverage

That last one may come as a surprise to many, in light of mediocre cornerback play, but the Vikings had arguably the best safety duo in the league last season, and also probably the best linebacker in coverage in Eric Kendricks. Both safeties and Kendricks will be returning this season.

The Vikings were 8th in pass rush, according to PFF - not bad - but somewhat disappointing given the return of Everson Griffen. The Vikings were 10th in sack percentage last season (7.5%), which was a decline from 2018, when they led the league in sack percentage at 9.04%.

But where the Vikings struggled at times - and particularly against good teams - was in run defense. The Vikings were 19th in yards per rushing attempt allowed, their worst showing since 2015. They allowed over 100 yards rushing against the Packers both games, the Chiefs, Eagles, Broncos, Seahawks, Bears (week 17), and 49ers. They lost all but the Broncos and Eagles games, and the Broncos game required a fairly dramatic comeback.

So, run defense and, to a lesser degree pass rush are areas for improvement. Both of these require changes to the defensive line.

Change One: a 4-3 Under Front
Change Two: Replacing Linval Joseph with Michael Pierce at NT
Change Three: Cornerback Overhaul

Offensive Changes

The personnel changes on the defensive side have already been made, but not so much on the offensive side, officially, so far.

In 2019, the Vikings offense was basically a top 10 unit overall - 8th in points scored, 16th in yards, 11th in overall PFF grade. What carried the offense was:

- 5th best in net yards per passing attempt
- 3rd best PFF passing grade
- 9th best PFF receiving grade
- 6th in average team passer rating

What held back the offense was the following:

- 16th in PFF team rushing grade
- 27th in PFF team pass blocking grade
- 12th in PFF team run blocking grade
- 12th in rush yards/attempt

Overall, the Vikings and Kirk Cousins had a top-tier passing attack despite of, not because of, the offensive line. The Vikings rushing attack was about average, maybe a bit above, which was disappointing considering Dalvin Cook played in more games last season and had over 1,000 yards rushing.

It’s not much of a surprise that the offensive line continues to be the weak link in the Vikings offense, and that was even more apparent against good teams, in both run and pass blocking. And so that is where change is most needed.

Change Four: Replace LG Pat Elflein
Change Five: Replace LT Riley Reiff
Change Six: Start Oli Udoh at Right Tackle
Change Seven: Acquire G Kelechi Osemele
Change Eight: Replacing Stefon Diggs with Justin Jefferson

With change comes risk, and potentially some hiccups or learning curve. Starting rookies in place of veterans carries that risk, but also the reward of better performance. Whether the performance will be better or worse, depends a lot on the hurdle created by the departed player.

In the case of the cornerbacks, the hurdle for the new starters is pretty low. In the case of Justin Jefferson, it’s pretty high. And for potential new offensive linemen, once again fairly low.

As fans we become accustomed to cheering for players that have done well in the past, and remember (mostly) the good plays - and try to forget the bad. But at the end of the day, every player the Vikings lost this off-season is replaceable. The Vikings lost Stefon Diggs, not Randy Moss. They lost Trae Waynes, not Deion Sanders. And they lost 2019 Xavier Rhodes, not 2017 Xavier Rhodes.

And they may lose Pat Elflein, not Randall McDaniel. And Riley Reiff, not Ron Yary.

We may find that players like Justin Jefferson, Oli Udoh, Jeff Gladney, Cameron Dantzler, Holton Hill, Mike Hughes, and Michael Pierce prove to be every bit as good as their replacements. And quite possibly better.

At the same time, the likelihood that all of them, or even most of them, would be worse seems to be rather unlikely.

Overall, that seems like trading the same floor for a higher ceiling. And it’s that higher ceiling the Vikings need to be able to go deeper into the playoffs and ultimately win a Super Bowl.

Time will tell.