2020 Vikings Expectations

1. Kansas City Chiefs
Most Super Bowl champs benefit from an exceptionable amount of luck on their way to the title, but that wasn’t really the case with the Chiefs last year. They had below-average injury luck, below-average fumble luck and were 5-4 in one-score games. It might sound crazy, but this offense could be a lot better than it was last year when Patrick Mahomes was battling through an injury. The Chiefs return their top five pass-catchers and used a first-round pick on dynamic running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. With some holes in the secondary, the defense could struggle early in the season, but the Chiefs have the firepower to outscore teams on a weekly basis.

Season prediction: 12-4, AFC Championship Game

2. Baltimore Ravens
They find themselves in a tough spot where nothing matters until they prove themselves in the postseason. But the Ravens return a loaded roster from last year’s 14-2 team, including 10 of 11 starters from the league’s most efficient offense. The idea that opposing defensive coordinators will have caught up to Greg Roman’s offense through a series of offseason Zoom calls is laughable. Roman’s scheme is sound and has been effective in the NFL for nearly a decade. While the Ravens might not produce the same historic numbers as they did in 2019, if Lamar Jackson can improve his downfield accuracy, they could be even tougher to defend. The bizarre Earl Thomas situation leaves the Ravens with a hole at safety, but their front seven should be better. Reigning league MVP, strong on both sides of the line of scrimmage and a smart coaching staff. This could be a special season for the Ravens.

Season prediction: 12-4, Super Bowl champions

3. San Francisco 49ers
Like the Chiefs, the 49ers weren’t a particularly lucky team en route to the Super Bowl last season. They were hit hard by injuries but overcame them to come out of the NFC. San Francisco’s season could swing depending on what it gets from two first-round picks. Defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw will be tasked with replacing a chunk of DeForest Buckner’s production. And wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is positioned to step in for Emmanuel Sanders. If the rookies are up to the task, the 49ers are set up to make another Super Bowl run.

Season prediction: 10-6, divisional round

4. New Orleans Saints
It’s difficult to find a weakness on their roster. In some ways, the Saints are similar to the Ravens in that success will be based solely on what they do in the playoffs. The Drew Brees/Sean Payton combination is hard to bet against in a shortened offseason, and New Orleans added key veterans like Emmanuel Sanders and Malcolm Jenkins. While the Saints have gone 26-6 over the last two regular seasons, they’ve failed to score more than 24 points in their last three playoff losses. Brees has already started to plan his post-football life with a broadcast agreement with NBC. If this is it for him, he is well-positioned to go out with a memorable season.

Season prediction: 12-4, Super Bowl (loss)

5. Seattle Seahawks
The big question here is whether swapping out Jadeveon Clowney for Jamal Adams and cornerback Quinton Dunbar makes them a better defense. I would say it does, even though Clowney was more disruptive last year than his numbers indicated. Typically, the Seahawks have not been a big blitzing team under Pete Carroll. If they’re able to scheme up pressure, the secondary is talented enough that they could produce a top-10 defense. Offensively, for all the criticism they receive, the Seahawks ranked fifth in efficiency. Russell Wilson gives them a high floor, Tyler Lockett is perennially underrated, and DK Metcalf could turn into a star. The foundation is too strong to bet against this team in 2020.

Season prediction: 11-5, NFC Championship Game

6. Pittsburgh Steelers
They’ve got a Super Bowl ceiling. When we last saw Ben Roethlisberger for an extended period of time in 2018, he was a top-10 quarterback. Of course, that was with Antonio Brown on the field. Roethlisberger still has a strong supporting cast in 2020, and the defense is loaded top-tier talents like T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick. It’s fair to question why Pittsburgh wasn’t more aggressive in adding a backup QB, but if Mike Tomlin can produce an 8-8 record with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, the floor can’t be that low here.

Season prediction: 10-6, divisional round

7. Dallas Cowboys
Their issues last year were bad coaching, bad special teams and bad luck. The Cowboys were 1-6 in one-possession games. Mike McCarthy takes over, but Kellen Moore will still call plays for an offense that ranked second in efficiency and added CeeDee Lamb in the draft. This team has a Super Bowl ceiling, but there are a couple concerns. One, will McCarthy let Moore do his job, or will he want to intervene, especially if things don’t go well early? And two, will the defense be good enough? Mike Nolan takes over as defensive coordinator and is expected to implement a more aggressive scheme, but they’ve got questions in the secondary.

Season prediction: 11-5, divisional round

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They’re going all-in on the Tom Brady experiment, but the front seven on defense might be the strongest part of this roster. Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, Vita Vea, Devin White and Lavonte David offer a talented blend of youth and experience. With the change at quarterback, the Buccaneers will need to figure out what works and what doesn’t on the fly. Brady’s supporting cast is overwhelmingly better than it was last year with the Patriots. There’s a chance he suffers a steep decline or that his accuracy goes downhill or that he deals with injury issues, but Brady has a chance for one last great run.

Season prediction: 10-6, wild-card round

9. Philadelphia Eagles
The foundation of Doug Pederson, Carson Wentz and Jim Schwartz gives the Eagles a high floor. They are probably one more injury away on offense from being in big trouble. But if DeSean Jackson stays healthy or if Jalen Reagor can make an impact as a rookie, they can be a lot better than last year. Defensively, the line has a chance to be special with Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Javon Hargrave, Derek Barnett and Malik Jackson. Pederson has gotten the most out of his talent over the last three seasons. The Eagles have holes in the secondary and at linebacker, but this is a team that should get back to the postseason for the fourth straight year.

Season prediction: 9-7, wild-card round

10. Minnesota Vikings
They retooled their roster in the offseason with an eye on the next three years. The loss of Stefon Diggs is going to hurt, and the offense very well could take a step back. But the best thing going for the Vikings is that they have two of the league’s smartest play-callers in Mike Zimmer and Gary Kubiak. The Yannick Ngakoue trade should give the Vikings a big boost up front, and Zimmer has earned the benefit of the doubt with his track record of developing young cornerbacks. This team probably doesn’t have a Super Bowl ceiling, but the Vikings should be a competitive playoff team.

Season prediction: 10-6, wild-card round

11. Buffalo Bills
Take away every team’s quarterback, and the Bills probably have one of the five best rosters in the league. QB traditionalists have given up on Josh Allen, but he made significant progress from his rookie year to last season. Not all quarterbacks find success in the same way. Allen is never going to complete 70 percent of his passes. But if he can be more accurate downfield and hurt teams with his legs, the Bills have a chance to make a deep playoff run. The defense is well-coached and might be more talented than last year when it finished seventh in efficiency.

Season prediction: 10-6, wild-card round

12. Indianapolis Colts
If Philip Rivers has anything left — and I buy that he does — he’s in excellent position to succeed in Indianapolis. He’s got a smart coaching staff, a very good offensive line, a strong run game and enough talent at wide receiver if T.Y. Hilton stays healthy. The defense is much more of a question mark. DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard headline an improved front seven, but the secondary has a lot to prove. The Colts would need some breaks to go their way to get to the Super Bowl, but I see them as the favorites in the AFC South.

Season prediction: 10-6, divisional round

13. Tennessee Titans
They know their identity on offense. A heavy dose of Derrick Henry, play-action with Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown making defenses look silly with yards after the catch and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith scheming up explosive plays. Defensively, the Titans lost coordinator Dean Pees, but Jadeveon Clowney gives them a big boost up front. Tannehill is not going to be Joe Montana again, but his skill set fits the scheme well, and the Titans are good enough at other spots to withstand his likely regression.

Season prediction: 9-7, wild-card round

14. Green Bay Packers
Packers fans are sick of the Aaron Rodgers talk, so let’s focus on the defensive side of the ball. There’s real upside with this group. The pass rush with Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary could be fierce. Green Bay has a legit number one corner in Jaire Alexander. And young players in the secondary like Darnell Savage should improve. The Packers were 8-1 in one-score games last year and could experience regression on offense if Matt LaFleur turns to a more run-heavy attack. They need Mike Pettine’s defense to play up to its talent.

Season prediction: 8-8

15. Las Vegas Raiders
The offense ranked ninth in efficiency last season and added speed in the form of first-round pick Henry Ruggs III. Hunter Renfrow showed promise as a rookie, Darren Waller looked like a dynamic play-maker, and the offensive line should be solid. In other words, Derek Carr is in a good spot. Defensively, the Raiders are much more talented than they were a year ago. This looks like a sneaky playoff team to me.

Season prediction: 9-7, wild-card round

16. New England Patriots
Jon Gruden and Derek Carr one spot ahead of Bill Belichick and Cam Newton. 2020 really is insane. Hearing Belichick gush over Newton in recent weeks has me scared I’m going to get crushed by Old Takes Exposed after the Patriots win 11 games. My issue is it won’t be enough for Newton to operate within the offense. He’ll need to carry the offense on his back because they’re just not that talented. The secondary should still be good, but New England has a bunch of question marks in its front seven. Belichick will give them a chance every week, but it’s hard to see them winning many one-on-one matchups.

Season prediction: 7-9

What’s new
Chad: A lot. The offensive coordinator. And the defensive coordinator(s). And half the defense. In fact, while it can feel a bit stagnant since all the coordinators were already here and the offense is almost entirely intact, there’s been quite a bit of turnover.

Gone is the idea that the Vikings are rebuilding. They still want to make a run at the division title.

But they’ll be doing it with six new starters on defense. Perhaps that’s a good thing since last season’s pass defense struggled so much.

But Mike Zimmer is now tasked with delivering another top-10 defense while relying on multiple rookies in an offseason with no OTAs or minicamps. That’s no small feat.

Arif: It’s difficult to think of the team as being completely new when the leadership remains the same, but the Vikings have never experienced defensive roster turnover like this — while also losing a key component on offense. Teams with this much change are often attempting a hard restart after a failed season, but the Vikings are coming off of a divisional-round appearance and hope to maintain that mojo. To that end, changing out the cornerback corps — partially a product of losing players they otherwise wanted to keep and partially a product of a willingness to upgrade — isn’t all that awful, but their quick shuffling of the front end of the defense might have consequences. Add to that the changes at both coordinator spots, and there’s a lot of reason to approach the season with uncertainty.

What’s not
Chad: For starters, most of the coaches. While there are new coordinators, Gary Kubiak was heavily involved in the offense a year ago. And the assistants around him are mostly the ones that have followed Kubiak around the league. Rick Dennison will still design the run plays each week, then Kubiak will develop play-action passes off of those looks.

On defense, while George Edwards is gone, it’s still Zimmer running the show. He’s one of the few remaining head coaches who calls defensive plays. And while Andre Patterson and Adam Zimmer both got promotions that delivered coordinator titles, they still work with the defensive line and linebackers, respectively.

So, yes, there was some turnover on the coaching staff. But it’s mostly the same decision-makers in charge.

Arif: Indeed, this might be the least impactful dual coordinator change the NFL has seen. It would be nice to have Jerry Gray — who left to join the Packers staff — coaching the new crop of defensive backs, but having someone familiar with what Zimmer does in Daronte Jones coaching the position should at least make that transition a lot easier. The defense will look familiar in form, though having Dom Capers advise on blitz packages may help the Vikings look different on third down.

What I’m watching
Chad: The Vikings’ passing game. Plenty (rightly) has been made about the defense. But it’s the offense that may need to shoulder the load, especially early. We pretty much know what we’re going to get from the running game — a lot of zone rushes with Dalvin Cook getting close to 20 carries per contest.

But does Kubiak change anything in the passing game? The Vikings rarely used 11 personnel compared to the rest of the league but touted throughout training camp their wide receiver depth. Perhaps Kubiak will lean on that more. It’ll also be interesting to see how long Bisi Johnson can hold off Justin Jefferson for the No. 2 wide receiver gig. And just how involved will Irv Smith Jr. be in the passing game after a strong training camp?

The Vikings have a lot of intriguing areas. But I’m most excited to see if they do anything different through the air.

Arif: The Vikings are insistent that there won’t be a defensive dropoff — and you wouldn’t expect them to say anything else — but I’m curious to see if their confidence bears out when it comes to this completely new cornerback group. While two of the starters have experience learning the defense, it would be giving the Vikings quite a lot of credit to say we should know what to expect from them. And with two rookies thrown into the mix, there’s all kinds of uncertainty. How that secondary performs will catch my attention.

Record prediction
Chad: 10-6. This seems like one of the most potentially volatile seasons in recent years. You could convince me that the offense takes another step in Year 2 of this system and Zimmer re-tools the defense for another top-5 performance. Or it’s possible that the offense struggles without Stefon Diggs and the young defense isn’t ready yet. But I think the former is more likely. It’s a tough road ahead to get to double-digit wins, but I think the defense will be better than most expect.

Arif: 9-7. This isn’t a knock on the Vikings — they have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, and the toughest quarterback schedule by executive consensus. The rest of the division also has reasons to struggle and 9-7 may very well win the division. I wouldn’t be shocked to see all teams in the division end up with records between 7-9 and 9-7 by the season’s end, and coming out on top of that will be its own reward.