2020 Vikings Expectations

Arif: It is strange that the 2019 Vikings provided a stark example of the difference between “good” and “great,” with the truly elite teams distancing themselves in the playoffs from teams we would generously call “contenders.”

With that said, one would think that the Vikings were just a few moves away from entering that territory and preparing for a run. But, like you said, they likely traded away the prospects for 2020 success for improved odds at a balanced 2021 roster and beyond. But, they’re not out of it, so long as a number of things break their way.

We covered some of the best-case scenarios for the individual units and most of those have to come together for the Vikings to truly make a run. Mike Hughes would have to become an above-average CB1 while Holton Hill would need to hold his own on the other side as a size/speed matchup. Neither need to be world-breakingly good but reasonably solid while the rest of the defense plays to its talent level. At the same time, they need a very good — for a rookie — performance from Jeff Gladney when he’s in.

With these things, it’s possible that the Vikings end up as a top-eight defense, with some upside (especially with turnover-induced luck) as a top-five defense despite the incredible talent turnover they saw this offseason.

On the other side of the ball, they’ll have to rely on an extremely good rookie performance from Jefferson, as he’s one of the key pass-catchers coming out of the gate. With a healthy Adam Thielen, Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph, a potent weapon in Jefferson might help push the passing game to another level.

Another critical component to that is the offensive line. It’s easy to fixate on them as they did give up pressure — especially up the middle — in 2019, but much of that pressure came on plays that take responsibility out of their hands, like rollouts on play-action. Nevertheless, an improved offensive line should see significant improvement overall.

The key to all of this, however, is Kirk Cousins. He doesn’t need to become an elite quarterback for the Vikings to genuinely contend — though that would help, of course — but he does need to continue to grow when it comes to situational football. His performance at the end of halves or in third-down situations might be the best thing to take away from his 2019 season given where he was in those scenarios before then. But it still may not be enough. His downfield passing, early-down decision-making and pre-snap diagnosis were all top-notch last year, and he continues to demonstrate a strong arm and excellent accuracy, but the ability to use all of that in the context of the situation he’s in will continue to define his career in a Vikings uniform. So, in a best-case scenario, he becomes even more of an expert in late-game drives and generates some nice come-from-behind victories.

With all of those best-case-scenario conditions, I could see the Vikings handily win the division and threaten 12 wins.

Chad: Ample optimism, eh? I’m not sure there’s a Vikings fan who wouldn’t sign up for 12 wins today.

However, this 2020 team is a fascinating one because I think the potential outcomes of this are quite volatile, even for an NFL team. So let’s look at the flip side now. What if everything goes poorly for the Vikings this season?

I’d imagine you’d have to start with the defense. In a worst-case scenario, Hughes plays as he did in Dallas last season and becomes an easy target for opposing quarterbacks, while opposite him the team never has a No. 2 corner emerge. Sticking with this theme, Gladney joins plenty of other rookies in needing more time to grasp Zimmer’s defense and isn’t ready to play for most of the season.

On the defensive line, they’d be in trouble without anyone emerging opposite Danielle Hunter. In this scenario, Ifeadi Odenigbo’s breakout season was a fluke, Shamar Stephen continues to struggle with a pass rush, and new signee Michael Pierce doesn’t quite fit what the Vikings are looking for.

That would leave the Vikings with a less-than-average defense and would certainly put Zimmer on the hot seat. In a league that continually trends more offensive, Zimmer remains an outlier. But if the defense falters, all eyes would point toward the head coach, who still hasn’t signed an extension this offseason despite winning a playoff game last season.

Arif, what does the worst-case scenario for the Vikings look like on offense? And what would that win total likely be?

Arif: I think any worst-case scenario for the Vikings involves a defense collapse, as you said. Uncertainty with new defensive linemen, perhaps some age-related regression for Harrison Smith and a completely unready cornerbacks corps would mean that Hunter might do as much for the defense as Jared Allen did in his near-record 2011, a 31st-ranked team in terms of points allowed.

I don’t think it’s possible for a Zimmer defense to sink quite that low, but I certainly think a bottom-half defensive performance is in the cards if these things happen.

Offensively, this likely means a slow start for Jefferson with age catching up to Rudolph or injuries continuing to plague Thielen’s season. In either case, Cousins is left without many targets and probably has to worry about an offensive line that isn’t quite ready, particularly with two potential new faces in Cleveland and Dru Samia. A higher pressure rate, fewer safety valves and the possibility that Cousins himself has his issues with situational awareness crop back up mean fewer games that are competitive, with a few close games swinging the other way.

To me, that seems like a four-win team. We should give Zimmer some credit here — he’s only ever had seven-win teams or better — but if the defense truly craters, the Vikings will have a lot less to rely on than they usually do. It would require a career-low performance from Cousins, but a collapsing offensive line and a receiving group unable to substantially help him might lead to that kind of low-level performance.

At least it would give the Vikings more draft capital than they’ve had since 2012.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Vikings dropped a full game off their sky-high 9.5 opening line and now sit at 8.5 with juice priced into their over. They have locked in Mike Zimmer to a long-term deal, but our simulation sees that as a potential immediate misstep.

Anyone who locked in under a 9.5 or even 9 win total has to be feeling confident with the Vikings' current state and the overall strength of the NFC North. The Vikings have to win more than three division games to have any chance at making the playoffs in 2020.

11. Minnesota Vikings
Last year: 7th

Mike Zimmer is one of the best defensive coaches in the league, but he faces a stiff challenge in getting this group to be as good as last year’s unit. Their top three corners from last season — Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander — are no longer on the roster. They lost Everson Griffen (still a free agent) and Linval Joseph up front. And the big free agent they signed, nose tackle Michael Pierce, opted out. The cupboard isn’t completely bare. The Vikings still have a premiere pass rusher in Danielle Hunter (14.5 sacks, 22 QB hits last season), an excellent linebacker in Eric Kendricks and a very good safety pairing in Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris. There’s a case to be made that the new group of corners can actually be better than last year’s trio, considering how badly Rhodes struggled. The Vikings have a lot of question marks, and their depth could be tested more than last year when they had the second-healthiest defense. But Zimmer is too good to rank them any lower than this.

21. Minnesota Vikings
Last year: 10th

Among the offenses that finished in the top 10 last year, the Vikings may be the most likely to take a dip in 2020. Moving from Stefanski to Gary Kubiak isn’t that big of a deal. Kubiak was a senior advisor for the Vikings last year, and they’re still running his scheme. But Minnesota traded Diggs in the offseason and will be counting on Adam Thielen (30 and coming off of an injury-plagued 2019) to stay healthy and on first-round pick Justin Jefferson to make an immediate impact. Kirk Cousins was one of the best downfield passers in the league last season, but those explosive plays are going to be a lot harder to come by without Diggs. In the “some things never change” category, the Vikings’ offensive line is again a question mark. And Minnesota’s depth is likely to be tested more than last year when it had the third-healthiest offense.

Is 8.5 a fair number? Absolutely. When making a decision to bet on a team’s season win total, it’s important to look at the schedule. One important note to look at for the Vikings is the quarterback play Zimmer and company will have to deal with.

Of course, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford (if healthy) are on the schedule twice. That’s the same as any other year. But Minnesota’s schedule also includes games against the likes of Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

The quarterback talent Minnesota had to face last season was pretty low. Twice the Vikings lost to backup quarterbacks (Chase Daniel and Matt Moore) and nearly lost another to Brandon Allen. The 2020 season will be a complete 180 in terms of the quarterbacks on the opposite side of the field.

And of course, the unpredictability of whether fans will or won’t be allowed in the stadium any given week adds another element to consider. The general rule of thumb has been that the home-field advantage impacts the spread each week by roughly three points. But does the home-field advantage swing the spread if no fans are in the stadium?

On a positive note, the rest of the NFC North does not look promising. Chicago and Green Bay are also trending downward after questionable offseason decisions of their own. Detroit had a solid draft and added some nice pieces through free agency, but the franchise still has never won an NFC North title (they last won the division when it was the NFC Central in 1993).

While the list of quarterbacks on Minnesota’s schedule looks scary, Zimmer has a history of keeping a few of them in check when he matches up with them. Namely, Zimmer has been great against Ryan, Brees, and Philip Rivers during his tenure as head coach. It wouldn’t be outlandish to throw Rodgers in that group, either.

On the surface, the Vikings’ expectations should be lower than in 2019. With that said, over 8.5 wins is the better bet. The weaker NFC North will provide a bunch of opportunities for wins, and home games against opponents that struggled last season like Jacksonville and Carolina give a sense of optimism for the Vikings to reach double-digit wins in 2020.

VERDICT: OVER 8.5 WINS