How long will Diggs last with Buffalo?

Diggs’ tenure in the Twin Cities came to end this year for multiple reasons. Given that he’s a receiver, it’s pretty easy to assume that he wasn’t thrilled with the Vikings’ decision to switch to a more run-focused offense last season. His chemistry with Kirk Cousins has also been put into question as it appeared the Minnesota quarterback tended to favor Adam Thielen more as his top target.

So now, Diggs gets the chance to be “the guy” for the Bills. He will be the top receiver on their depth chart and he should be able to help make the job of Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen much easier.

There is still a lot of excitement about Diggs’ addition to the Bills, and rightfully so. But when Buffalo experiences any sort of struggles in 2020, will the receiver let his frustrations get the best of him once again?

Allen is still a very raw passer, so Diggs is pretty much guaranteed to experience some sort of frustration next season no matter what. How will the receiver react when he gets wide open down the field and the Bills quarterback, who had the second-most rushing attempts of any NFL signal-caller in 2019, decides to tuck the ball and run instead?

If things don’t go according to plan in 2020, will the season be full of Diggs trade rumors like it was a year ago? Buffalo dealing the receiver after just one year would cost them $6 million in dead money in 2021. But they’re projected to have around $36 million in cap space in 2021 and cutting or trading Diggs would also free up an additional $6 million, so dealing him could still be a legitimate option.

Very few people thought the Vikings would ever trade the talented receiver, but they did. Because of this, no one should be ruling out the possibility of him actually getting dealt again after only one season with the Bills.

NFL Next Gen Stats also tracks completion percentage above expectation. Each throw is assigned a completion probability based on depth of target, the receiver’s separation from the nearest defender and the nearest pass rusher to the quarterback, among other factors. A year ago, Allen posted a completion percentage 6.8 percent below expectation, third worst in football. He improved that number to 3.7 percent, which was fifth worst among qualifying quarterbacks.

While Allen took a step forward in accuracy, he’s still one of the least accurate quarterbacks in football. The Bills managed to win 10 games by catering the offense to what he does well.

Allen’s intended air yards per pass dropped from 11 to 9.4, still fifth highest in football. On passes from 0 to 19 yards in the air, Allen completed 63 percent to go with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. The farther down field he threw, the worse Allen got. On passes 20 yards or more, he had a 25 percent completion rate with four touchdowns and five interceptions. On passes 30 yards or more in the air, he completed just 13 percent for two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Going into 2020, how Allen fares against top competition will be a key aspect of measuring his development. The Bills played five games against teams that qualified for the postseason in 2019. The Bills were 1-4 in those games, with the lone win coming against the Titans prior to their quarterback change. In those five games, Allen completed 51 percent of his passes for 5.6 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. He also had one rushing touchdown with six fumbles and two fumbles lost in those games.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that his numbers in the Bills’ postseason loss to the Texans mirrored those from the regular season. While he racked up 372 total yards (92 rushing and 16 receiving) due to playing an overtime period, his efficiency stats were similar to those he posted against playoff teams during the regular season. He had a 52 percent completion percentage, averaged 5.7 yards per passing attempt, threw zero touchdowns and zero interceptions and fumbled twice, losing one.

If the Bills are going to take the next step in 2020, Allen will need to play better against top competition. Like everything with Allen, it comes down to consistency. Allen played one of his best games of the season against a talented Cowboys team on Thanksgiving Day, but struggled to summon that same level in Buffalo’s other toughest tests. The 2020 schedule features six games against teams that made the playoffs in 2019, including games against three of the four teams who played in the conference championships this season. Those games will help tell the story of how much Allen has developed.