Post by Funkytown on May 19, 2020 13:28:49 GMT -6
Bill Barnwell:
With the NFL universe on pause, now seems like a good time to continue our big-picture look into how each organization did during the player-acquisition period of the offseason. I'm going to run through all 32 teams and rank the work they did from worst to first.
To measure how each team performed, I'm comparing their roster, cap situation and future draft capital at the beginning of the offseason to what they have in mid-May. The most important thing a team can do is add talent, so those that made significant inroads in improving their roster will rank highly, while those that saw key pieces leave without replacements won't. I also considered how each attacked their specific needs, how well they read the market and handled the financial side of their deals, and what they did to create future draft picks.
For each team, I'll include what went right, what went wrong, what they might have done differently with a bit of hindsight and what they need to do next in the months to come. Finally, and this is important: These aren't power rankings of how these teams will perform in 2020. Some of the worst teams in the league from last season will finish at or near the top of these rankings because they were able to draft immediate-impact players at key positions, while some of the best teams shed talent or weren't able to add much in the draft because they already had dealt away picks.
With the NFL universe on pause, now seems like a good time to continue our big-picture look into how each organization did during the player-acquisition period of the offseason. I'm going to run through all 32 teams and rank the work they did from worst to first.
To measure how each team performed, I'm comparing their roster, cap situation and future draft capital at the beginning of the offseason to what they have in mid-May. The most important thing a team can do is add talent, so those that made significant inroads in improving their roster will rank highly, while those that saw key pieces leave without replacements won't. I also considered how each attacked their specific needs, how well they read the market and handled the financial side of their deals, and what they did to create future draft picks.
For each team, I'll include what went right, what went wrong, what they might have done differently with a bit of hindsight and what they need to do next in the months to come. Finally, and this is important: These aren't power rankings of how these teams will perform in 2020. Some of the worst teams in the league from last season will finish at or near the top of these rankings because they were able to draft immediate-impact players at key positions, while some of the best teams shed talent or weren't able to add much in the draft because they already had dealt away picks.
31. Chicago Bears
What went right: Offensive tackle Germain Ifedi didn't live up to expectations as a first-round pick for Seattle, but the Bears were able to sign the oft-penalized lineman to a one-year deal for just over $1 million, which is good value for a solid run-blocker. They will try Ifedi at guard as a replacement for the retired Kyle Long. General manager Ryan Pace also took the first steps out of the Mitchell Trubisky business, declining the quarterback's fifth-year option while bringing in Nick Foles to compete for a starting job. While Robert Quinn's five-year, $70 million deal is expensive, it's for a player for whom ESPN's pass rush win rate analysis suggests was the most effective pass-rusher in the league over the past two seasons. I also liked the flier Chicago took on former Steelers first-round corner Artie Burns.
What went wrong: Despite the fact that Foles' contract was a disaster for the Jaguars, the Bears sent a fourth-round pick to acquire him and didn't force the Jags to eat any of the money, instead restructuring $21 million in guarantees to come due over the next three seasons. Foles could work out as the team's starter, but this is the equivalent of signing an expensive three-year gym membership as a college senior. There couldn't have been much of a market for Foles, and Andy Dalton, who was cut by the Bengals after the draft, came without the pick or significant cash attached.
The Jimmy Graham deal was likely the worst contract of free agency, as a Bears team that had already committed significant assets to tight ends Dion Sims, Adam Shaheen and Trey Burton under Pace gave Graham a two-year, $16 million deal with $9 million guaranteed and a truly inexplicable no-trade clause. Graham can't block, and he was anonymous during his time with the Packers. Chicago needed three voidable years to re-sign linebacker Danny Trevathan on a three-year, $21.8 million deal, which is like taking out a loan so you can help pay for that gym membership. There are still questions about what this team has at wide receiver and in the secondary, where it will likely need second-rounder Jaylon Johnson to start as a rookie.
What they could have done differently: Waited out the quarterback market. Foles wasn't going to have many suitors, and the Jaguars had little leverage in moving his massive contract. Judging from the deals that Dalton and Jameis Winston signed -- and the offers Joe Flacco and Cam Newton have yet to get -- there was more supply in the quarterback market than demand this offseason. Wiping away the Graham deal goes without saying; if the Bears wanted to go after a versatile tight end, they were better off handing a similar deal to Eric Ebron, who signed with Pittsburgh for less money.
What's left to do: Add a veteran cornerback. The bottom tier of the cornerback market still has plenty of options available. Guys such as Eli Apple, Trumaine Johnson and Dre Kirkpatrick were generally problems in 2019, but the Bears should be able to sign one of them for little more than the veterans minimum. I would prefer Apple, who is still only 24 and was competent for the Saints in 2018.
What went right: Offensive tackle Germain Ifedi didn't live up to expectations as a first-round pick for Seattle, but the Bears were able to sign the oft-penalized lineman to a one-year deal for just over $1 million, which is good value for a solid run-blocker. They will try Ifedi at guard as a replacement for the retired Kyle Long. General manager Ryan Pace also took the first steps out of the Mitchell Trubisky business, declining the quarterback's fifth-year option while bringing in Nick Foles to compete for a starting job. While Robert Quinn's five-year, $70 million deal is expensive, it's for a player for whom ESPN's pass rush win rate analysis suggests was the most effective pass-rusher in the league over the past two seasons. I also liked the flier Chicago took on former Steelers first-round corner Artie Burns.
What went wrong: Despite the fact that Foles' contract was a disaster for the Jaguars, the Bears sent a fourth-round pick to acquire him and didn't force the Jags to eat any of the money, instead restructuring $21 million in guarantees to come due over the next three seasons. Foles could work out as the team's starter, but this is the equivalent of signing an expensive three-year gym membership as a college senior. There couldn't have been much of a market for Foles, and Andy Dalton, who was cut by the Bengals after the draft, came without the pick or significant cash attached.
The Jimmy Graham deal was likely the worst contract of free agency, as a Bears team that had already committed significant assets to tight ends Dion Sims, Adam Shaheen and Trey Burton under Pace gave Graham a two-year, $16 million deal with $9 million guaranteed and a truly inexplicable no-trade clause. Graham can't block, and he was anonymous during his time with the Packers. Chicago needed three voidable years to re-sign linebacker Danny Trevathan on a three-year, $21.8 million deal, which is like taking out a loan so you can help pay for that gym membership. There are still questions about what this team has at wide receiver and in the secondary, where it will likely need second-rounder Jaylon Johnson to start as a rookie.
What they could have done differently: Waited out the quarterback market. Foles wasn't going to have many suitors, and the Jaguars had little leverage in moving his massive contract. Judging from the deals that Dalton and Jameis Winston signed -- and the offers Joe Flacco and Cam Newton have yet to get -- there was more supply in the quarterback market than demand this offseason. Wiping away the Graham deal goes without saying; if the Bears wanted to go after a versatile tight end, they were better off handing a similar deal to Eric Ebron, who signed with Pittsburgh for less money.
What's left to do: Add a veteran cornerback. The bottom tier of the cornerback market still has plenty of options available. Guys such as Eli Apple, Trumaine Johnson and Dre Kirkpatrick were generally problems in 2019, but the Bears should be able to sign one of them for little more than the veterans minimum. I would prefer Apple, who is still only 24 and was competent for the Saints in 2018.
29. Detroit Lions
What went right: The Lions went all-in on rebuilding their oft-frustrating secondary, trading cornerback Darius Slay and replacing him by signing Desmond Trufant and drafting Jeff Okudah at No. 3 overall. On paper, the trio of Okudah, Trufant and Justin Coleman would rank as one of the best cornerback combinations in the league. Trading for safety Duron Harmon completed the defensive back makeover. They will miss Slay, but even with him on the field last season, they allowed a passer rating of 97.4, which would have been the eighth-worst mark in the league.
What went wrong: Coach Matt Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn elected to rebuild most of their defense by acquiring the players Bill Belichick didn't want to keep, a move that typically turns out poorly for other teams. Jamie Collins' three-year, $30 million deal seemed particularly onerous for a linebacker who was a mess outside of New England during his run with Cleveland. The Lions will now start four former Pats on defense in Collins, Harmon, Trey Flowers and Danny Shelton. They look perilously thin along the defensive line, and while Belichick has been able to mold middling players into contributors across his front seven, Patricia's players have generally been better elsewhere than they were playing for him in Detroit.
The Lions also weren't able to parlay the No. 3 draft pick into a bidding war between the Chargers and Dolphins, forcing them to stay put. Okudah should be an impact cornerback, and I don't have any issue with them drafting him, but this team could have sorely used an extra first-round pick. Detroit used its second-round pick on running back D'Andre Swift, and while he is a talented player, this isn't a roster that can afford to use two second-round picks on running backs across three years. You could argue Kerryon Johnson is a sunk cost, but the Lions could have addressed running back with one of a number of veterans at minimal cost.
Instead, Detroit hit free agency yet again, and its deals were questionable. Trufant hasn't lived up to expectations over the past three seasons. The five-year, $45 million deal it handed Halapoulivaati Vaitai pays the former Eagles swing tackle like he is an upper-echelon starter. It sure looks reminiscent of the big deal that Detroit handed former starting right tackle Rick Wagner, which didn't work out.
What they could have done differently: Resisted the urge to go after as many former Patriots as possible. The Collins deal is a mess, and under Belichick, the Patriots have exhibited the ability to develop players such as Shelton and Harmon into useful contributors. Patricia and Quinn are trying to buy them instead. If the Lions couldn't trade down in the first round, they should have used their second-rounder on a position that's tougher to fill than halfback.
What's left to do: Add defensive line help. Detroit signed Nick Williams to a two-year deal after he impressed with the Bears in his first significant stretch of pro action as a 29-year-old, but it needs another pass-rusher to mix in on a rotational basis. I'd love to see the Lions sign Jadeveon Clowney, but more realistically, this would be a landing spot for somebody like Jabaal Sheard on the edge or Marcell Dareus on the interior. Hey, one of those guys used to play for the Patriots!
What went right: The Lions went all-in on rebuilding their oft-frustrating secondary, trading cornerback Darius Slay and replacing him by signing Desmond Trufant and drafting Jeff Okudah at No. 3 overall. On paper, the trio of Okudah, Trufant and Justin Coleman would rank as one of the best cornerback combinations in the league. Trading for safety Duron Harmon completed the defensive back makeover. They will miss Slay, but even with him on the field last season, they allowed a passer rating of 97.4, which would have been the eighth-worst mark in the league.
What went wrong: Coach Matt Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn elected to rebuild most of their defense by acquiring the players Bill Belichick didn't want to keep, a move that typically turns out poorly for other teams. Jamie Collins' three-year, $30 million deal seemed particularly onerous for a linebacker who was a mess outside of New England during his run with Cleveland. The Lions will now start four former Pats on defense in Collins, Harmon, Trey Flowers and Danny Shelton. They look perilously thin along the defensive line, and while Belichick has been able to mold middling players into contributors across his front seven, Patricia's players have generally been better elsewhere than they were playing for him in Detroit.
The Lions also weren't able to parlay the No. 3 draft pick into a bidding war between the Chargers and Dolphins, forcing them to stay put. Okudah should be an impact cornerback, and I don't have any issue with them drafting him, but this team could have sorely used an extra first-round pick. Detroit used its second-round pick on running back D'Andre Swift, and while he is a talented player, this isn't a roster that can afford to use two second-round picks on running backs across three years. You could argue Kerryon Johnson is a sunk cost, but the Lions could have addressed running back with one of a number of veterans at minimal cost.
Instead, Detroit hit free agency yet again, and its deals were questionable. Trufant hasn't lived up to expectations over the past three seasons. The five-year, $45 million deal it handed Halapoulivaati Vaitai pays the former Eagles swing tackle like he is an upper-echelon starter. It sure looks reminiscent of the big deal that Detroit handed former starting right tackle Rick Wagner, which didn't work out.
What they could have done differently: Resisted the urge to go after as many former Patriots as possible. The Collins deal is a mess, and under Belichick, the Patriots have exhibited the ability to develop players such as Shelton and Harmon into useful contributors. Patricia and Quinn are trying to buy them instead. If the Lions couldn't trade down in the first round, they should have used their second-rounder on a position that's tougher to fill than halfback.
What's left to do: Add defensive line help. Detroit signed Nick Williams to a two-year deal after he impressed with the Bears in his first significant stretch of pro action as a 29-year-old, but it needs another pass-rusher to mix in on a rotational basis. I'd love to see the Lions sign Jadeveon Clowney, but more realistically, this would be a landing spot for somebody like Jabaal Sheard on the edge or Marcell Dareus on the interior. Hey, one of those guys used to play for the Patriots!
27. Green Bay Packers
What went right: In a market in which teams were aggressively paying for potential at offensive tackle, the Packers got a reasonable price in replacing Bryan Bulaga with Rick Wagner on a two-year, $11 million pact. While it wasn't the first-round wide receiver Packers fans were craving, Devin Funchess could deliver good value on a one-year, $2.5 million deal as a second or third wideout. And while it's not ideal for their chances of winning in 2020, if Green Bay did add its quarterback of the future when it drafted Jordan Love with the 26th pick, it would obviously push this offseason way higher than it ranks now.
What went wrong: In an offseason in which the draft was full of wide receiver talent and veteran wideout prices were depressed, the Packers really couldn't come away with more than Funchess? Taking Love was one thing, but using a second-round pick on bruising running back AJ Dillon seemed more egregious. It also seemed to hint that Aaron Jones' future after the season lies outside of Green Bay, which is unlikely to make many Packers fans happy.
The decision to move on from Bulaga also was curious, given that he signed a relatively friendly deal with the Chargers. It's possible the Packers weren't given an option to match, but if they could have signed Bulaga for three years and $30 million, they should have brought back their stalwart right tackle.
They didn't do much to address their defense. While they improved from 29th to 15th in DVOA after a spending spree in free agency last year, they are unlikely to be as healthy on the defensive side of the ball in 2020 after their starters missed a total of four games all season. They replaced linebacker Blake Martinez with Christian Kirksey, which should be a positive if Kirksey stays healthy, but I was surprised Green Bay didn't try to do more to add depth on defense.
What they could have done differently: Realistically, even if the Packers wanted Love in Round 1, they should have gone out of their way to get one of the remaining wideouts in the second round. I'm not often an advocate for trading up, and it's possible that opposing teams were quoting astronomical prices to the Packers after seeing how their fan base reacted to the Love pick, but they should have moved up in the second round to get someone like Laviska Shenault Jr. or Denzel Mims. Dillon basically has to turn into Derrick Henry for that pick to work, and both the track record and NFL career span of backs like Henry aren't great.
What's left to do: Acquire a veteran wideout. I mentioned Kenny Stills earlier, and a trade for the Texans wideout makes total sense.
What went right: In a market in which teams were aggressively paying for potential at offensive tackle, the Packers got a reasonable price in replacing Bryan Bulaga with Rick Wagner on a two-year, $11 million pact. While it wasn't the first-round wide receiver Packers fans were craving, Devin Funchess could deliver good value on a one-year, $2.5 million deal as a second or third wideout. And while it's not ideal for their chances of winning in 2020, if Green Bay did add its quarterback of the future when it drafted Jordan Love with the 26th pick, it would obviously push this offseason way higher than it ranks now.
What went wrong: In an offseason in which the draft was full of wide receiver talent and veteran wideout prices were depressed, the Packers really couldn't come away with more than Funchess? Taking Love was one thing, but using a second-round pick on bruising running back AJ Dillon seemed more egregious. It also seemed to hint that Aaron Jones' future after the season lies outside of Green Bay, which is unlikely to make many Packers fans happy.
The decision to move on from Bulaga also was curious, given that he signed a relatively friendly deal with the Chargers. It's possible the Packers weren't given an option to match, but if they could have signed Bulaga for three years and $30 million, they should have brought back their stalwart right tackle.
They didn't do much to address their defense. While they improved from 29th to 15th in DVOA after a spending spree in free agency last year, they are unlikely to be as healthy on the defensive side of the ball in 2020 after their starters missed a total of four games all season. They replaced linebacker Blake Martinez with Christian Kirksey, which should be a positive if Kirksey stays healthy, but I was surprised Green Bay didn't try to do more to add depth on defense.
What they could have done differently: Realistically, even if the Packers wanted Love in Round 1, they should have gone out of their way to get one of the remaining wideouts in the second round. I'm not often an advocate for trading up, and it's possible that opposing teams were quoting astronomical prices to the Packers after seeing how their fan base reacted to the Love pick, but they should have moved up in the second round to get someone like Laviska Shenault Jr. or Denzel Mims. Dillon basically has to turn into Derrick Henry for that pick to work, and both the track record and NFL career span of backs like Henry aren't great.
What's left to do: Acquire a veteran wideout. I mentioned Kenny Stills earlier, and a trade for the Texans wideout makes total sense.
He's definitely not loving what the rest of the NFCN did, but here is ours:
19. Minnesota Vikings
What went right: Nobody added more future draft capital this offseason than the Vikings. Trades produced two fourth-rounders and a fifth-rounder in 2021. They let cornerbacks Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander leave in free agency, with those moves expected to generate third- and sixth-round compensatory picks. Minnesota should have 12 picks in next year's draft.
This offseason was about clearing out cap space and retooling on defense for the Vikings, but I liked that they were still able to replace Linval Joseph with wildly underrated Ravens defensive tackle Michael Pierce on a team-friendly deal. Moving on from corner Xavier Rhodes could be addition by subtraction. They have also so far resisted the urge to sign running back Dalvin Cook to an extension after his breakout season.
Does trading Stefon Diggs to Buffalo fit on this side of the right/wrong debate? When I wrote about the trade, I suggested it could be a win-win for both sides. With the Vikings subsequently using the first-round pick from the trade to nab wide receiver Justin Jefferson, my feelings haven't changed. Losing Diggs will hurt the team in the short term, but for an organization that wants to run the ball and use 22 personnel, transitioning to a cheaper option alongside Adam Thielen makes sense. If they were going to trade Diggs, they did it at the right time.
What went wrong: Diggs is really good! Even if you're optimistic about Jefferson, the chances of a first-round pick turning into a top-10 wide receiver aren't extremely high. The team was overdue for a reboot at cornerback, and they used first-, third-, and fifth-round picks there, but I would have liked to see the Vikings target at least one low-cost veteran to try to rehabilitate under Mike Zimmer.
Minnesota also didn't re-sign defensive end Everson Griffen after the longtime starter voided his deal, and the only free agent they signed to replace him was rotation lineman Anthony Zettel. In part, the Vikings were hamstrung by franchising safety Anthony Harris, which was a bit of a surprise. While he has intercepted nine passes since moving into the starting lineup during the 2018 season, it's not a great use of resources for them to commit nearly $23 million of cap space to their safeties in 2020.
What they could have done differently: I would have let Harris leave and used the $11.4 million in cap space created to go after an edge rusher. The Vikings reportedly shopped Harris for a draft pick, but I suspect they would have netted a fifth- or sixth-round compensatory pick if they had let him leave. They were reportedly negotiating an extension with Harris before the draft, and if they can get a deal done and reduce his 2020 cap hold, they could use the cap space to go after help at defensive end.
What's left to do: Add a backup quarterback. Another team that needs help here! The Vikings have Sean Mannion, Jake Browning and 2020 seventh-round pick Nate Stanley behind Kirk Cousins. The newly extended veteran hasn't been on the injury report since Week 1 of the 2013 campaign, but if Cousins were to go down, Minnesota's playoff chances would go kaput. With Gary Kubiak taking over as offensive coordinator, the logical backup to target would be Joe Flacco, who played under Kubiak in Baltimore.
What went right: Nobody added more future draft capital this offseason than the Vikings. Trades produced two fourth-rounders and a fifth-rounder in 2021. They let cornerbacks Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander leave in free agency, with those moves expected to generate third- and sixth-round compensatory picks. Minnesota should have 12 picks in next year's draft.
This offseason was about clearing out cap space and retooling on defense for the Vikings, but I liked that they were still able to replace Linval Joseph with wildly underrated Ravens defensive tackle Michael Pierce on a team-friendly deal. Moving on from corner Xavier Rhodes could be addition by subtraction. They have also so far resisted the urge to sign running back Dalvin Cook to an extension after his breakout season.
Does trading Stefon Diggs to Buffalo fit on this side of the right/wrong debate? When I wrote about the trade, I suggested it could be a win-win for both sides. With the Vikings subsequently using the first-round pick from the trade to nab wide receiver Justin Jefferson, my feelings haven't changed. Losing Diggs will hurt the team in the short term, but for an organization that wants to run the ball and use 22 personnel, transitioning to a cheaper option alongside Adam Thielen makes sense. If they were going to trade Diggs, they did it at the right time.
What went wrong: Diggs is really good! Even if you're optimistic about Jefferson, the chances of a first-round pick turning into a top-10 wide receiver aren't extremely high. The team was overdue for a reboot at cornerback, and they used first-, third-, and fifth-round picks there, but I would have liked to see the Vikings target at least one low-cost veteran to try to rehabilitate under Mike Zimmer.
Minnesota also didn't re-sign defensive end Everson Griffen after the longtime starter voided his deal, and the only free agent they signed to replace him was rotation lineman Anthony Zettel. In part, the Vikings were hamstrung by franchising safety Anthony Harris, which was a bit of a surprise. While he has intercepted nine passes since moving into the starting lineup during the 2018 season, it's not a great use of resources for them to commit nearly $23 million of cap space to their safeties in 2020.
What they could have done differently: I would have let Harris leave and used the $11.4 million in cap space created to go after an edge rusher. The Vikings reportedly shopped Harris for a draft pick, but I suspect they would have netted a fifth- or sixth-round compensatory pick if they had let him leave. They were reportedly negotiating an extension with Harris before the draft, and if they can get a deal done and reduce his 2020 cap hold, they could use the cap space to go after help at defensive end.
What's left to do: Add a backup quarterback. Another team that needs help here! The Vikings have Sean Mannion, Jake Browning and 2020 seventh-round pick Nate Stanley behind Kirk Cousins. The newly extended veteran hasn't been on the injury report since Week 1 of the 2013 campaign, but if Cousins were to go down, Minnesota's playoff chances would go kaput. With Gary Kubiak taking over as offensive coordinator, the logical backup to target would be Joe Flacco, who played under Kubiak in Baltimore.
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29180831/ranking-2020-nfl-offseasons-worst-first-barnwell-all-32-teams
... and neither is this Chris guy.