Kirk Cousins vs. The QB Schedule

The Minnesota Vikings have one heckuva quarterback slate this year.

If we give Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers the benefit of the doubt, the Vikings will take on six future Hall of Famers. They will also see the NFL’s leader in quarterback rating from 2019, the QB who produced the second most passing yardage in the league and that’s all without mentioning Matt Stafford or Deshaun Watson.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Vikings are at a severe disadvantage. The NFL today has highest volume of capable quarterbacks in league history. Last season 25 teams produced at least 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Twenty years ago there were only 14 teams to clear that threshold. Over that time period the average quarterback rating has gone from 78.8 to 90.4.

So how can we figure out which team has the better QB on a given Sunday? We have more resources at our disposal these days like Pro Football Focus grades and ESPN’s QBR invention. We also have context. Circumstances, matchups, supporting casts, systems, play callers and the ability to look into the nuances of the position to tell us about the capabilities of a given QB.

So let’s have a look at each QB facing Kirk Cousins this year, starting with their rating, PFF grade and QBR and then adding in additional context to determine whether the Vikings are in better shape at the position or not each week.

What each stat tells us

Rating: The league’s first attempt at analytics that somehow ended up on the back of football cards everywhere, rating takes your standard box score numbers of completion percentage, yards, touchdowns and interceptions and combines it into one number. It may not be as advanced as stats we have now but higher rating has been found to correlate into winning. Of Kirk Cousins’s 20 highest rated games, 16 are victories. However, it can be misleading at times because it offers no context. If you’re down 20 points and rack up big counting stats, rating will still reward you.

PFF grade: Ever throw is graded (by former NFL quarterback Bruce Gradkowski, actually). If you make a throw like Cousins-to-Thielen in the playoff win over the Saints, your grade is given a big boost. If you throw a swing pass to Dalvin Cook and he runs for 35 yards after the catch, you aren’t given much credit. Likewise if an interception bounces off Stefon Diggs’s helmet, the QB isn’t penalized. But if you miss a wide open throw 10 feet over someone’s head, you will be dinged.

QBR: This ESPN-created statistic aimed to value things that others never have before like clutch and rushing by using win probability. It attempts to contextualize a performance. For example, Cousins had nearly the same traditional rating against the Giants and Eagles but his QBR was only 54.8 against New York and 92.8 versus Philly. He touchdowns to get his team way out ahead and then when the Eagles closed the gap, Cousins put them away. The issue with QBR is that it varies wildly. Mitch Trubisky’s QBR in 2018 ranked third and then 28th in 2019 even though his PFF grade barely changed.

Some other notable Kirk Cousins stats for comparison’s sake:

— Fourth highest graded QB from a clean pocket last year

— Fourth highest % of throws “on target”

— Only ranked 21st in “positively-graded throw” rate and 13th in “big-time” throws (this means that he picked up a lot of yards on short throws or easy wide open throws…it speaks to the system and his conservative nature at times)

— Ranked 10th in “turnover-worthy” throws

With that said, let’s have a look at how Cousins matches up vs. each QB on the schedule by these three numbers and add additional context to decide whether the Vikings have an advantage or not.

Alright, let’s get started…

Final tally and conclusions

On paper Kirk Cousins appears to be the better quarterback in six games, even with the opposition in four contests and the underdog in six games.

Put another way, the majority of the schedule is against QBs who are as good or better. That puts the onus on Kubiak to improve on last year’s success with the system, on Dalvin Cook and the running game and the changes on defense to work out against these top QBs. In the past, Zimmer has had his fair amount of success against the Wilsons, Breeses and Ryans of the world. This year will be his toughest test.

It’s also worth noting that the style of a quarterback and the areas in which they are the strongest can tell us about their capabilities to take their team to the top. Things like accuracy, big-time throws, turnover-worthy plays, deep passing and rushing success paint a picture. When someone like Watson or Wilson can do it all, they can be very tough to beat.

Our analysis tells the story of circumstances. With a great offensive line, Matt Ryan could have been a top QB. Or with great receivers, Brady might have been in the AFC Championship game or better.

Bottom line: If the Vikings’ defense adapts and Cousins has the same things go right as last year, he can be the better QB on many days in 2020.