Post by Funkytown on Apr 16, 2017 18:27:08 GMT -6
How Well Have the Vikings Drafted? by wludford
Plenty more at the link: www.dailynorseman.com/2017/4/13/15281240/how-well-have-the-vikings-drafted
OVERALL SPIELMAN PERFORMANCE
If we don’t count the 2016 draft at this point, as way too early to evaluate, and focus on the previous four years going back to 2012 when Spielman was given final say on draft picks, here’s what you get:
Never Played: 17% (7 players)
Useless: 19.5% (8 players) - some could improve
Poor: 7.3% (3 players) - one could improve
Avg.: 17.1% (7 players) - some could improve
Good: 34% (14 players) - some could improve
Great: 5% (2 players) - and could improve
Legendary: 0% - too soon for any of these draft classes
Overall, the players in the 3 ‘bust’ categories is well below the league average over the past 20 years of 68%, at only 43.8%, which is a huge out-performance - and at least a few current ‘useless’ or ‘poor’ players (not including the 2016 draft) could improve.
On the other hand, the worthwhile draft picks to varying degrees (average or better) represent 56.1% of the total, and 39% were in the ‘good’ or ‘great’ category, and many here could continue to move higher. That 39% blows away the league average of 19.2% in those categories over the past 20 years.
Another measure of how good Spielman has done drafting, and the coaching staff has done developing, players is how many are already well along the path to becoming ‘great’ draft picks- long-term, above average starters. Two (Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes) I’d say can already be counted in this category, and looking at players currently in the ‘average’ or ‘good’ category still playing for the Vikings, eight of them have a chance to make it into the ‘great category’. That’s a total of 10 possible ‘great’ players among 41 draft picks - roughly 25% - which is nearly four-times the league average. Truly outstanding.
There are other measures. Last year, a couple outlets did a piece on which teams were the most successful drafting over the past five years, which include the 2011-2015 draft classes. The 2011 class was the year prior to Spielman having final say, and included generally the worst draft pick the Vikings have made in recent years with Christian Ponder. Nevertheless, the New York Post article ranked the Vikings #3 in the league in drafting over these five years, according to their metrics.
Another piece by Rotoworld ranked teams drafting success using ProFootball Reference’s AV (approximate value) metric, a measure of how much value a player provided during the season, by compiling the total AV of all the drafted players by each team during that same 5 year span. By that metric, the Vikings also ranked very high- 4th I think looking at the chart. One interesting tidbit from this article was that during that span, the Vikings acquired more draft day picks via trades- 27- than any other team, while yielding only 17 in various trades. That gave the Vikings under Rick Spielman more picks during this period than any other team except the 49ers. That is another measure of a GM’s ability, and Rick Spielman scores high again here. Obviously the Percy Harvin trade was completely one-sided in favor of the Vikings. Spielman turned the two picks into Xavier Rhodes- one of the ‘great’ picks above, and Jerick McKinnon- a ‘good’ pick, while unloading Harvin who never did much post-Vikings.
The Rotoworld article goes on to look at just the past 3 years, or 2013-2015. During that span the Vikings also were one of the top drafting teams, and much higher than average, ranking 5th overall in total AV from draft picks, while still having the 2nd most picks during this span. Again, another confirmation that the Vikings under Rick Spielman have been one of the top drafting teams in the league.
An older study in the Boston Globe (2014) had Spielman and the Vikings as one of the best at drafting and developing players.
If we don’t count the 2016 draft at this point, as way too early to evaluate, and focus on the previous four years going back to 2012 when Spielman was given final say on draft picks, here’s what you get:
Never Played: 17% (7 players)
Useless: 19.5% (8 players) - some could improve
Poor: 7.3% (3 players) - one could improve
Avg.: 17.1% (7 players) - some could improve
Good: 34% (14 players) - some could improve
Great: 5% (2 players) - and could improve
Legendary: 0% - too soon for any of these draft classes
Overall, the players in the 3 ‘bust’ categories is well below the league average over the past 20 years of 68%, at only 43.8%, which is a huge out-performance - and at least a few current ‘useless’ or ‘poor’ players (not including the 2016 draft) could improve.
On the other hand, the worthwhile draft picks to varying degrees (average or better) represent 56.1% of the total, and 39% were in the ‘good’ or ‘great’ category, and many here could continue to move higher. That 39% blows away the league average of 19.2% in those categories over the past 20 years.
Another measure of how good Spielman has done drafting, and the coaching staff has done developing, players is how many are already well along the path to becoming ‘great’ draft picks- long-term, above average starters. Two (Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes) I’d say can already be counted in this category, and looking at players currently in the ‘average’ or ‘good’ category still playing for the Vikings, eight of them have a chance to make it into the ‘great category’. That’s a total of 10 possible ‘great’ players among 41 draft picks - roughly 25% - which is nearly four-times the league average. Truly outstanding.
There are other measures. Last year, a couple outlets did a piece on which teams were the most successful drafting over the past five years, which include the 2011-2015 draft classes. The 2011 class was the year prior to Spielman having final say, and included generally the worst draft pick the Vikings have made in recent years with Christian Ponder. Nevertheless, the New York Post article ranked the Vikings #3 in the league in drafting over these five years, according to their metrics.
Another piece by Rotoworld ranked teams drafting success using ProFootball Reference’s AV (approximate value) metric, a measure of how much value a player provided during the season, by compiling the total AV of all the drafted players by each team during that same 5 year span. By that metric, the Vikings also ranked very high- 4th I think looking at the chart. One interesting tidbit from this article was that during that span, the Vikings acquired more draft day picks via trades- 27- than any other team, while yielding only 17 in various trades. That gave the Vikings under Rick Spielman more picks during this period than any other team except the 49ers. That is another measure of a GM’s ability, and Rick Spielman scores high again here. Obviously the Percy Harvin trade was completely one-sided in favor of the Vikings. Spielman turned the two picks into Xavier Rhodes- one of the ‘great’ picks above, and Jerick McKinnon- a ‘good’ pick, while unloading Harvin who never did much post-Vikings.
The Rotoworld article goes on to look at just the past 3 years, or 2013-2015. During that span the Vikings also were one of the top drafting teams, and much higher than average, ranking 5th overall in total AV from draft picks, while still having the 2nd most picks during this span. Again, another confirmation that the Vikings under Rick Spielman have been one of the top drafting teams in the league.
An older study in the Boston Globe (2014) had Spielman and the Vikings as one of the best at drafting and developing players.
Plenty more at the link: www.dailynorseman.com/2017/4/13/15281240/how-well-have-the-vikings-drafted
... and neither is this Chris guy.