[OC] WR Rankings - 2020 Draft Class
Apr 22, 2020 17:15:18 GMT -6
Funkytown, Mondry, and 2 more like this
Post by Danchat on Apr 22, 2020 17:15:18 GMT -6
For my last draft article of 2020, it's time to rank the WRs! I went nuts with this one, so let's just move on to the meat and potatoes.
I also only had so much time to do this, so I made highlights for the top 11 and graphs for the top 19.
Key for the graphs:
PFF Grade - PFF's rating for the player's performance in 2019, it tries to isolate the player's performance from his peers
pSparq & RAS - Athletic measurements that test size, speed, and other agility drills.
YPRR - Yards Per Route Run. Operates as a way to tell how efficient the player was, and can show you if the player was a focus on the team's offense
Drop Rate % - How often the player dropped the ball. A higher bar means less drops
Deep Grade - PFF graded how well every WR did when thrown a deep ball
YAC - Yards After Catch. A good measure of how dangerous the player is with the ball in his hands
Cont Cth % - How often a player catches a ball in a contested situation.
Notes
Off-colored bars on the graph represent projections of missing stats
1st Round Caliber
#1 CeeDee Lamb – Oklahoma
Right out of the gate, Lamb has the mentality of a top WR. An ultra-productive receiver who churned 3292 career yards over 40 games, he displayed great route-running, devastating after the catch moves, and great hands. Lamb maximizes every play he’s involved in, with a ridiculous 21.4 yards per catch – keep in mind his average target comes at 13 yards downfield! When DBs got physical and bumped him off his routes, he never lost his rhythm. Lamb may not be a track star and isn’t 6’5”, but he’s fast enough and tall enough to do the job. His contested catch rate may be low, but that’s more due to having so few opportunities because A) he gets open so often and B) Oklahoma’s spread offense. The only real concern I see is that he played in a great situation with top notch O-lines and QBs (Mayfield, Murray, Hurts), but Lamb has a big enough sample size to make those fears minimal. He should absolutely end up as a team’s star wideout.
Highlight:
#2 Jerry Jeudy – Alabama
Don’t worry about Jeudy’s pSparq score, he ran a 4.45 and has no issues athletically. Jeudy’s calling card is running silky smooth routes and changes speeds in an instant. He has no problems getting open, and he’s dangerous once he gets the ball in his hands. Using those same skills he can juke defenders away without making contact. He’s also a threat to break out deep as he can fly by safeties and challenge any corner deep. My biggest issue with him is actually his hands – I saw him make some big drops on tape, one on a perfectly thrown 50 yard deep ball that wasn’t contested, and another one hotly contested in the endzone. It will take a top tier NFL corner who has high speed and quickness to be able to run with Jeudy. I may be a bit lower on him than others, but he should still become a top WR in some lucky team’s offense.
Highlight:
#3 Henry Ruggs III – Alabama
It’s not often a team’s 3rd WR ranks as high as the 3rd best receiver in the draft class. Alabama has an embarrassment of riches at receiver, including the blazing fast Ruggs who ran a 4.27 ’40. He was the third WR to Jeudy and Devonta Smith and topped out at 46 catches and 746 yards as his career highs in a season, but his ability elevates him above most of this WR class. Ruggs’ hands are great and he rarely dropped anything over his college career, which allows him to maximize every target he gets. And while many super-fast NFL players can be the “falls down upon contact” type, Ruggs is a tough receiver who brings defenders to their knees in the open field. It was disappointing to see him not work well as a deep receiver as much as you’d think; I noticed he had issues when defenders made contact with him. Ruggs has the upside of Tyreek Hill but the downside of John Ross, making him a true boom-or-bust prospect.
Highlight:
#4 Justin Jefferson – LSU
With Joe Burrow as his QB, Jefferson exploded for a 111/1540/18 (catches/yardsTDs) season and helped take the college football world by storm with such a devastating passing game. Jefferson’s 2019 numbers are jaw-dropping; he caught a ridiculous 83% of passes that came his way, and a contested ball was caught 92.3% of the time, which blows every other prospect’s percent out of the water. Jefferson has fantastic hands and was able to go up and catch some balls that appeared to be out of his range at first. He also crushed the combine, running a 4.43 ’40 and surpassed most peoples’ athletic expectations. The main concern I have with Jefferson is that he will likely be relegated to the slot, as he did rely on shorter routes and facing slot CBs. He wasn’t quite as adept at getting open via running great routes as others higher on this list; instead, I noticed he was better at getting open against zone defenses and would sit down in a hole and wait for the ball to be thrown to him. Jefferson could end up as the next Michael Thomas if used right.
Highlight
#5 Brandon Aiyuk – Arizona St.
Aiyuk (pronounced eye-yook) only got one full season to be a starter at Arizona State, but he made the most of it. Aiyuk explodes off the ball and dominated the competition at times. While he’s no speed demon at 4.50 ’40, he’s a threat to go deep and was very efficient despite not getting thrown to that far downfield. He tended to run deep or turn around with a hitch route, which CBs would often get fooled by. He’s lethal in the open with, with a devastating 10.9 YAC, which would be even more impressive if Lamb and Ruggs weren’t also YAC monsters. His miniscule contested catch rate is partially due to having so few opportunities, but he’s not a guy who’s going to go up and catch off-target passes. Aiyuk may worry some as he only became a starter in his senior year and doesn’t have the best hands, but his ability to get open and tear up the field with his phenomenal agility negates that for me.
Highlight
2nd Round Tier
#6 Michael Pittman Jr. – USC
The son of former NFL running back Michael Pittman, the 6’ 4” 223 lbs receiver had a breakout 101/1269/11 season in his senior year at USC. I must say, I was very surprised when I turned on the tape for Pittman – he explodes off the line and totally dominated the competition. He had the benefit of some great QB play, but Pittman found himself wide open at times with his agility. Plus, when you’re 6’ 4”, you don’t have always have to be that open. Pittman has great hands and he caught 76% of the passes that came his way, and rarely made any drops. He looks faster than his 4.52 ’40, which is already incredibly impressive for a 223 pound man. He’s a decent runner after making the catch, though his YAC tanked due to being schemed many hitch routes that did not allow Pittman to run after the catch. My analytics told me to rank Pittman 11th, but after I watched his tape, I just couldn’t do that. He’s got the hands, size and speed, route-running… he’s not going to be a game-breaking WR and likely won’t be a big deep threat, but he’s the guy on any 3rd down/4th down/redzone situation.
Highlight
#7 Tee Higgins – Clemson
The 6’ 3” Higgins was a dangerous weapon for Clemson as he topped 2000 yards and 25 total TDs in his two seasons as a starter. He was Trevor Lawrence’s best playmaker as he averaged 19.8 yards per catch. While he’s only a small threat after the catch, Higgins’ best skill is as a jump ball receiver downfield. Tee dominated the competition on deep passes and has the ability to reel in passes that are overthrown. His hands are fine; he struggled with a few focus drops, but it’s not a huge concern. My biggest concern is his ability to separate. Higgins is a guy we need testing numbers on – with his Pro Day cancelled we won’t be getting that – so it’s hard to project if he will have trouble separating from NFL CBs. He has the potential to be a #1 receiver, but with the recent wave of tall rookie WRs who have relied on winning jump balls, I’m wary on Higgins. He’s risky enough I wouldn’t want to spend a 1st rounder on him.
Highlight
#8 Denzel Mims – Baylor
Mims is a scary size-speed athlete coming in at 6’ #” 207 lbs and running a 4.38 ’40. He started a full 3 years at Baylor and had a fantastic first season as a sophomore, going for over 1000 yards, but only had 1799 yards his next two seasons. After watching some tape on Mims, one thing is apparent – he doesn’t play at 4.38 speed. Mims uses his size well and uses his large frame to come down with high throws, but I didn’t see him get wide open very often. I don’t believe Baylor’s offense had him run a full route tree. He rarely did much after the catch and was not a big threat to break a tackle. His hands were a bit concerning, as I spotted him drop a couple tough, but catchable balls. PFF also stated that he dropped 16.7% of his targets in 2018, so while he took a step forward in 2019, it’s still a reasonable concern. I did also notice that Baylor’s QB play was lackluster and they should have focused on giving Mims more chances, and I think his stats get punished more than they should. While I have been harsh on Mims, he has the upside to become a true #1 if he improves his route-running and decreases the drops. I don’t quite understand the hype he’s getting when Pittman Jr. looks like the one who should be getting it.
Highlight
#9 Chase Claypool – Notre Dame
Claypool is another freakish size-speed combo who ran a 4.42 at 6’ 4” 238 lbs. He’s been a starter for a few seasons now, but it hasn’t been until 2019 when he broke out for a 66/1037/13 line. On tape Claypool lived up to his testing numbers as he was able to run with CBs on a consistent basis. He was at his best after he got the ball in his hands, as he not only broke tackles on a consistent basis, but was also a very tough runner. He’s a fantastic blocker on run plays and for screens. His yards per route run is below average, but I think it would be at least average if he had decent QB play, as he frequently got open but either was thrown a poor ball or the QB didn’t send the ball his way. His hands are a bit of an issue – on one hand, he made several awkward catches due to bad throws, but he also missed some easier ones on route to a 9.6% drop rate. I think he may be best off switching to TE, as his speed will let him blow by LBs and he should be strong enough if he gains some weight. He has the body to become the next Darren Waller, who was a nobody as a late round WR but transitioned to TE and is a difficult coverage assignment. There’s a danger that he becomes the next Devin Funchess or Kelvin Benjamin, but I think Claypool has the quickness to be better than they were.
Highlight
#10 Jalen Reagor – TCU
Reagor’s graph might look a bit underwhelming, but there’s some caveats. First, TCU’s QB play was atrocious, as PFF remarks that he was thrown an accurate ball 30.7% of the time! That tanks his YPRR. On tape Reagor has top-notch speed and acceleration, as he consistently blows by DBs. Several times on tape he was running free downfield with several steps on defenders. If paired with a real QB, he likely would have scored several many more deep TDs. He’s also not just a one-trick pony running go routes; Reagor is a dangerous weapon in the screen game and is a better route-runner than I thought he’d be. He will also make for a top-tier punt returner, as he had some good returns. The biggest problem with Reagor is his hands – a 13% drop rate is too high, and they weren’t all focus drops. He doesn’t have the greatest wingspan at 5’ 10”, and a few times I noted that drops happened as his arms were fully extended. If Reagor can improve his catching, then he’s going to be some lucky team’s deep threat that defenses will have to focus on. Give him a QB who throws a great deep ball like Russell Wilson and I think he’ll pan out.
Highlight
#11 Laviska Shenault Jr. – Colorado
Shenault is a very intriguing receiver, as he doesn’t exact fill a typical WR archetype. He’s got average size, good hands, decent speed, but struggled with injuries through his college career. He pulled out of the combine after pulling a hammy after running a 4.58 ’40. When he’s on the field, he’s a playmaker who is adept at breaking tackles and making cuts to gain extra yards. His ability to fight for 50-50 balls is decent – his contested catch rate looks bad because the top percentile is Jefferson’s 92%, but CBs weren’t able to bully him. Shenault is a passable route runner but needs work, many times he was simply schemed to get the ball instead of being asked to beat a CB straight-up. He’s also not quite fast enough to be a consistent deep threat, and he misplayed a few deep balls. All in all, Shenault has a very high ceiling with his strong hands and playmaking in the open field, but his biggest hurdle will be to stay healthy on a consistent basis.
Highlight
3rd Round Tier
#12 K. J. Hamler – Penn St.
Hamler is such a frustrating receiver to watch; he’s got speed for days and gets open all of the time. Getting paired up one-on-one against a CB or S is child’s play for KJ, as he runs crisp routes and runs circles around defenders trying to keep up with him. The big problem is his 16.9% drop rate – he dropped 12 passes (56 catches)! That’s simply not acceptable for an NFL receiver. He did haul in some difficult passes on low throws. Size is also an issue for Hamler, as he’s just 5’ 8” 178 lbs. He simply can’t hold his own on contested passes and will be a slot-only receiver. But that’s not his game; getting open with his quickness and earning extra yards after the catch is another strength. He’ll be a great returner… but there’s a real risk that Hamler ends up as a gimmicky wildcard player instead of an NFL-caliber slot WR. If he displayed better hands, he’d likely in the top 8 receivers.
#13 Tyler Johnson – Minnesota
A rare hometown product, Johnson was uber productive the past two years, combining for 165/2478/25 over that stretch. He’s rumored to have tumbled down draft boards recently due to a lack of testing numbers. Sitting out the combine wasn’t a wise move, but he likely had no idea his Pro Day was going to be canceled. Johnson wasn’t going to test all that well, but that’s not his game – Tyler’s greatest skill is his route-running. He’s a technician who uses quick moves to get open at will. CBs had trouble sticking with him one-on-one, and even when they got close, Tyler’s one of the best WRs at catching contested passes. He’s certainly one of the stronger receivers in the class, as he plays well through contact. His hands are pretty good; his 2018 season was a bit problematic with drops, but he took a big step forward in 2019 with just a 6.3% drop rate. He increased his catch % from 62% to 73% in that span. So while Johnson is unlikely to become a team’s #1 WR at any point, I like his chances to become a secondary or tertiary option in the NFL. His tape is filled with some great plays and I think his game will translate well at the next level.
#14 Bryan Edwards – South Carolina
Edwards was a rare 4 year starter at South Carolina, but never truly had a breakout year, as he never topped 850 yards or 72 catches. The 6’ 2” 216 lbs receiver is a bit of an oddball compared to the usual WR archetypes; he caught nearly half his passes from screens despite being a bit on the slower side for a receiver. Edwards is a threat after the catch, as he powers through defenders like a HB would. As a typical receiver, he works fine on short routes as he’s got reliable hands, but he doesn’t get much separation when heading further downfield. What’s worse is that he failed to make several catches on contested passes; I thought a tough receiver like Edwards would thrive on these plays. South Carolina tried to use him like they did Deebo Samuel, but he’s just not the same guy. He’s also had a few injury issues. Edwards has some strengths, but I have a hard time seeing what role he’ll fit in the NFL.
#15 Antonio Gandy-Golden – Liberty
Hailing from Liberty, a university in Virginia that I hadn’t heard of prior to scouting AGG, but after three straight seasons of 1000+ yards and 10 TDs, AGG has set himself up as a mid-round pick. He’s also one of the biggest receivers in the draft at 6’ 4” 223 lbs, and he uses his large frame and snag balls. Several times he leapt over a defender, and he projects to be a very good redzone receiver. For a bigger receiver, he’s a much better tackle breaker as compared to Higgins and Mims. AGG also caught basically everything that came his way. The main concern here is with the competition level… Gandy-Golden was basically going up against the worst DBs Division I football has to offer, and his numbers would not be as good-looking if he went up against SEC defenses. There’s a definite risk that Gandy-Golden’s abilities won’t translate to the NFL, but there’s a whole lot to like regardless.
#16 Devin Duvernay – Texas
Duvernay was a no-name receiver before he stepped up with a huge 2019 season with a 105/1392/9 season, taking over as Texas’ top receiver. The 5’ 10” 200 lbs receiver ran a 4.39 ’40 and it shows. Duvernay can blow by unwary DBs and was a dangerous open field runner when screens where thrown his way. His stats were inflated by screens, as he caught the most in the country. Even with that fact there, Duvernay still caught 60% of passes in contested situations and only dropped 2.7% of his targets. The main downside with Duvernay is his inexperience with a CB press. He struggled with DBs that were physical with him, but due to poor competition, he didn’t encounter this often. Duvernay will make for a nice playmaking slot WR, but if he wants to grow into a top WR, he’ll have to work on dueling against real CBs.
4th Round Tier
#17 Gabriel Davis – UCF
Davis committed to the NFL as a junior after posting a 72/1241/12 season at UCF. Known as a speedster, the 6’ 2” 216 lbs receiver ran a very simple route tree and beat up on some rather poor competition, and compounding on that, he had a lackluster combine. Davis has strong straight-line speed on tape and used this to be a threat on some long TDs. His route running was hit and miss, with some double moves leaving some CBs in his dust, but he doesn’t have great acceleration. Davis also is not a threat in the open field, as he usually went down upon first contact. He has quality hands and was a solid red zone weapon. As one of the younger prospects in this class, I see Davis as a guy who has room to grow. More of a high ceiling/low floor prospect.
#18 Van Jefferson – Florida
Vanchi “Van” Jefferson started out at Ole Miss, alongside NFL starters A. J. Brown and D. K. Metcalf, but eventually transferred to Florida, but he topped out at a 49/657/6. With his RAS score coming out as a perfectly average 5 and the fact that he’ll be 24 by the time the 2020 season starts, that’s a lot of reasons not to like Jefferson. However, I found that he was a dependable receiver in Florida’s offense, and his numbers were hindered by poor QB play. Jefferson runs some quality routes and found himself open even against top tier competition. He’s got soft hands and catches most everything his way. That’s about it for his strengths, though, as his ability as a deep threat, inability to break tackles, and inability to play through contact dropped him down this list. I could see Jefferson ending up as a team’s 3rd receiver, but that may be his ceiling as an NFL receiver.
#19 Isaiah Hodgins – Oregon St.
Hodgins, a 6’ 3” WR, had a big year at Oregon State with a 86/1164/13 line. His graph looks pretty darn good too – Hodgins had the best drop rate in the class, with a tiny 1.1% drop rate. Hodgins has incredibly soft hands and reels in everything that comes his way, and with his size, he can go up and catch most anything around him. I saw him make several plays on the sideline and he displayed some fantastic body control. There’s some problems with Hodgins’ ability to separate and make plays, however. He struggled against press coverage and stronger CBs had more success against him. He’s also rather easy to tackle in the open field, as he rarely breaks any tackles. Hodgins doesn’t have a high ceiling as he will likely struggle against top CBs, but I could see him working as a scrappy 3rd receiver who will be known for making great catches.
#20 Antonio Gibson – Memphis
Gibson is a peculiar prospect, as he barely played at all in college, finishing his career with 44 catches and 33 rushing attempts. Usually a player who barely played at a smaller school would not make it on to my radar, but Gibson has some incredible elusiveness as he forced 33 missed tackles on his 71 touches last year. The 6’3” 228 lbs man is more of an offensive weapon than a HB or WR, as he doesn’t have the polish to run routes and is too unwieldy to be a HB. On tape, he shows ample patience before firing to top gear when he spots a hole. He’s perfect for kick returns and should make it as a punt returner too. He’s a Tavon Austin type – worthy of 5-7 touches via gimmicky plays every game (and also manning the return duties), but I highly doubt he turns into anything more than that. He’ll likely be overdrafted and will generate a few highlight plays, but I can’t see him panning out as a starter on an offense.
#21 Lynn Bowden – Kentucky
While Bowden profiles as a slot receiver, you wouldn’t be able to tell that from his 2019 season, as he played both HB and QB! He ran for 1468 yards, passed for 403, and caught 348. Like Gibson at #20, his appeal is going to come from his elusiveness. He brings sub 4.5 speed and will also be an option for kick and punt returns. I have my doubts Bowden will make it as a receiver – his 16.2% drop rate is quite abysmal – but he’s a great option for screens and jet sweeps. All in all, Bowden’s a less explosive athlete than Gibson, but has far more experience and has the flexibility to be used as a HB. Perhaps Ty Montgomery would be a good comparison for him.
#22 Donovan Peoples-Jones – Michigan
A 5-star recruit coming out of high school, Peoples-Jones had an insanely high 44.5” high jump at the combine and is a top notch athlete. However, he was a massive disappointment at Michigan, as he never became an every-down player and was unproductive when on the field. Despite his athletic ability, Peoples-Jones has no explosiveness and has trouble losing defenders. He runs routes very stiffly. You would hope he could work as a deep receiver, but he had trouble coming down with passes past 15 yards, though I will note he had to deal with some terrible QB play. He made a few tough catches, but also had an abysmal game vs Ohio State with 3 drops. Peoples-Jones is worth a Day 3 pick just to see if a coaching staff can start from scratch and see if they can mold him into something, but I don’t love his chances.
#23 Collin Johnson – Texas
I remember seeing Johnson in some 2020 mock drafts as a 1st rounder back in early 2019, but the hype for him has died off. The 6’ 5” 222 lbs receiver has size and good hands, but not much else. Johnson just doesn’t get much separation off the line and does not get physical with opposing CBs. Injuries cost him a chunk of the 2019 season, and that might be the reason for the poor season. His 2018 year was a good one with a 68/985/7 line, so if he can stay healthy, perhaps he could work his way into an NFL lineup. He could end up as a redzone receiver like the Saints used Brandon Coleman a few years back.
5th Round Tier
#24 John Hightower – Boise St.
If you’re looking for a WR with the ability to go deep and doesn’t have chronic dropping issues, Hightower might be your guy. He runs a 4.43 ’40 and isn’t on the smaller side (6’ 1”). Out of the 36 WRs I examined, he had the deepest average target of over 17 yards and averaged 18.5 yards per catch. Some issues with him involve a lack of strength and failing to come away with closely contested passes. He also played in a very weak Mountain West conference, and his play may drop off transitioning to the NFL compared to other WR prospects. Unlike some guys in this class, he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses and would be worth a Day 3 pick.
#25 Quintez Cephus – Wisconsin
Cephus is one of the toughest receivers in this draft class and he relies on hauling in contested passes as his bread and butter. That’s what will have to be his role in the NFL as he ran a 4.73 ’40 at the combine, and while he doesn’t look quite that slow on film, he does not separate well. At 6’ 0” 202 lbs, Cephus will have a harder time using his physical prowess against NFL DBs. He put up a 56/901/7 line in his junior year, but it’s worth noting that he was expelled from the team for all of 2018 due to allegations of sexual misconduct. He was found not guilty and was allowed to return. With some big red flags in his profile, Cephus may transition to the NFL poorly, but his strong hands and ability to beat down physically on CBs might just be enough to let him find a role.
#26 James Proche – SMU
Proche (pronounced ‘pro-shay’) is seemingly this year’s “small school ultra-productive WR”. He’s been a starter for 4 years and finishes his career with a 301/3949/39 line, most of that coming in his final two seasons. The 5’ 11” receiver didn’t flash all that much on tape, and we don’t have his testing numbers. Proche has a bit of quickness on his routes and rarely drops anything, and he even made a few one-handed catches. He offers very little after the catch, usually going down upon first contact. He’ll likely be a slot-only receiver in the NFL due to his size and lack of top speed. It’s hard to project if he’ll be anything in the NFL as he faced very soft competition, though we have seen Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton come out of SMU and become quality NFL WRs.
#27 Joe Reed – Virginia
The son of former Viking Jake Reed, Joe had a very strong combine and put himself on the radar. Virginia used him like an offensive weapon – he was used on many screens and was passed to downfield on average just 8 yards. He’s a decent threat in the open field, as he left some defenders behind in the dust. He’s also a top-notch kick returner, with 5 kick return TDs in the past 3 years. He’s also got strong hands and was able to reel in some passes that were off-target. However, Reed was a non-factor as a deep threat and was a lackluster route-runner, so he’ll need plenty of development if he wants to have a role as an NFL WR.
6th Round Tier
#28 Binjimen Victor – Ohio St.
Trapped behind a stacked WR corps, the 6’ 3” Victor didn’t get to do much at Ohio State, topping out at 35/573/6 in his one year as a starter. I can describe him in one word: lanky. Victor looks more like a basketball player with how skinny he is. He attacks the ball and uses his large frame to reel in passes. Unfortunately, he’s not all that fast and lacks the agility to lose defenders with a move or two. He is also on the low end strength-wise and doesn’t do well against contact. Victor will be worth throwing a jump ball to every once in a while, but he’s just a guy unless he bulks up and plays at a faster speed.
#29 K. J. Hill – Ohio St.
It feels weird to put Hill here after just complimenting the Buckeye WR corps, as he was ahead of Terry McLaurin last year, who’s gone on to become the Skins’ #1 WR already. KJ had a very strong 2018 season, but took a step back in his senior year and also tested poorly. It’s been proven that short (5’ 11”) and slow (4.6 ’40) WRs don’t make it in the NFL, and Hill must fight an uphill battle. On tape he wasn’t all that impressive, as I noticed he had trouble tacking the ball. He lacks explosion when trying to run a route. Perhaps Hill can channel his 2018 performance, but there’s just too many red flags here to consider him the prospect he was a year ago… he probably should have left a year early!
This is getting ridiculously long, so I’ll go through these last guys quickly.
#30 Quez Watkins – Southern Miss.
One of the fastest WRs in this draft class running a 4.35 ’40, Watkins used speed to tear up the competition and was a competent punt returner. He’s likely to be in for a rude awakening in the NFL where guys who run a 4.3 can vanish – he ran a simple route tree and plays with minimal strength. If paired up with a CB who can match his speed, it’s over. He’ll warrant a Day 3 pick.
7th Round Tier
#31 Jauan Jennings – Tennessee
Jauan (pronounced ja-wohn) Jennings had a quality 2019 with a 59/969/8 season, unlike many other of these late round prospects. However, he flunked the combine with a 4.72 ’40 while being 6’ 3” 215 lbs. He was productive with what QB play he had and was a monster to take down in the open field. However, he’s a plodder as a route runner and struggles to get open when he’s not being schemed open. He’s also got some off-the-field issues and has some injury issues. Jennings has more upside than some other players higher on this list, but the risk with him is palpable.
#32 Isaiah Coulter – Rhode Island
Coulter only started one year at WR, as he moved from linebacker to receiver! It’s hard to say much about him as an NFL prospect with only one year of play and facing minimal competition, but he looked pretty darn good on tape. The 6’ 1” 198 lbs receiver has some nice burst and was able to get open at will. He’s rather weak at the catch point and needs to add some muscle to his frame. I wouldn’t mind spending a late pick on him and give him some time to develop his skills as a receiver.
#33 Tyrie Cleveland – Florida
Cleveland is a project player who never broke out as a starter at Florida. He put himself on the radar with a strong combine, running a 4.46 ’40 at 6’ 2” 209 lbs. On tape, he does show speed, but that’s about it. He is a body-catcher and has had a history with drops. He showed some promise on kick returns and should be a solid gunner. But with lackluster hands, little strength, no luck as a deep receiver, and the inability to get Florida’s coaching staff to trust him, Cleveland should be considered a major project.
#34 Kalija Lipscomb – Vanderbilt
After having quality sophomore and junior seasons, Lipscomb’s play took a nosedive in 2019 with just 47/511/3 as a full-time player. Vanderbilt threw a bunch of screens his way, but Lipscomb barely had the ball thrown downfield for him. He has middling elusiveness. He’s got good hands, but doesn’t get open downfield all that often. Was basically erased when facing strong CBs. Lipscomb profiles as a backup NFL WR.
#35 Quartney Davis – Texas A&M
Davis is a quick receiver who runs some nice routes and was able to get open frequently, but that’s about all the positives I can give. He was very inefficient with the targets he got, and was rather weak getting yardage after making a catch. His speed is average, he was one of college football’s inefficient WRs on deep passes, and his drops were a problem. He plays like an undersized WR when he’s 6’ 1”. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes undrafted.
#36 Dezmon Patmon – Washington State
Patmon is another size-speed combo, who clocks in at 6’ 3” 225 lbs and ran a 4.48 ’40. He played in Washington State’s pass happy offense, but fell from #1 WR to #3 from 2018 to 2019. Patmon uses his size to go up and catch some overthrown passes and can fight through DB contact to catch a ball. He doesn’t appear to play at 4.48 speed, and is a non-threat with the ball in his hands. Dropped 11% of passes that came his way. Patmon looks like a quality Day 3 prospect on paper, but likely won’t live up to the expectations.
#37 Stephen Guidry – Miss St.
Mississippi State’s passing game was a disaster, and Guidry suffered with just a 49/827/8 line in two years there after transferring from a community college. He’s on my radar as a 6’ 3” 201 lbs guy with 4.47 ’40 speed, but had troubles getting open and dealt with drops.
#38 Juwan Johnson – Oregon
A massive 6’ 4” 230 lbs receiver, Johnson transferred from Penn State to Oregon, but couldn’t find success with Herbert at QB. He has a major issue with drops and has regressed for two straight seasons after a strong sophomore year. He’s slow on tape and is neither a deep threat nor dangerous with the ball in his hands. Perhaps he should transition to TE and try his luck there.
#39 Darnell Mooney - Tulane
Mooney turned some heads as he ran a 4.38 ’40, but he’s a small guy at 5’ 10” 175 lbs. A starter for three full years, Mooney had decent production. He has some drop issues and will have troubles going up against physical CBs. He could work as a special teamer and reserve receiver.
#40 Jeff Thomas – Miami
The smallest WR in this draft class (that I know of), the 5’ 8” 170 lbs Thomas runs a 4.45 ’40 and is a quality returner. He’s an explosive player in the open field, but simply isn’t going to cut it as a standard NFL WR. He’s been expelled from the Miami program once due to rule violations and attitude issues. Thomas will likely go undrafted but perhaps could make a roster as a returner.
Alright... which WRs do you like?
I also only had so much time to do this, so I made highlights for the top 11 and graphs for the top 19.
Key for the graphs:
PFF Grade - PFF's rating for the player's performance in 2019, it tries to isolate the player's performance from his peers
pSparq & RAS - Athletic measurements that test size, speed, and other agility drills.
YPRR - Yards Per Route Run. Operates as a way to tell how efficient the player was, and can show you if the player was a focus on the team's offense
Drop Rate % - How often the player dropped the ball. A higher bar means less drops
Deep Grade - PFF graded how well every WR did when thrown a deep ball
YAC - Yards After Catch. A good measure of how dangerous the player is with the ball in his hands
Cont Cth % - How often a player catches a ball in a contested situation.
Notes
Off-colored bars on the graph represent projections of missing stats
1st Round Caliber
#1 CeeDee Lamb – Oklahoma
Right out of the gate, Lamb has the mentality of a top WR. An ultra-productive receiver who churned 3292 career yards over 40 games, he displayed great route-running, devastating after the catch moves, and great hands. Lamb maximizes every play he’s involved in, with a ridiculous 21.4 yards per catch – keep in mind his average target comes at 13 yards downfield! When DBs got physical and bumped him off his routes, he never lost his rhythm. Lamb may not be a track star and isn’t 6’5”, but he’s fast enough and tall enough to do the job. His contested catch rate may be low, but that’s more due to having so few opportunities because A) he gets open so often and B) Oklahoma’s spread offense. The only real concern I see is that he played in a great situation with top notch O-lines and QBs (Mayfield, Murray, Hurts), but Lamb has a big enough sample size to make those fears minimal. He should absolutely end up as a team’s star wideout.
Highlight:
#2 Jerry Jeudy – Alabama
Don’t worry about Jeudy’s pSparq score, he ran a 4.45 and has no issues athletically. Jeudy’s calling card is running silky smooth routes and changes speeds in an instant. He has no problems getting open, and he’s dangerous once he gets the ball in his hands. Using those same skills he can juke defenders away without making contact. He’s also a threat to break out deep as he can fly by safeties and challenge any corner deep. My biggest issue with him is actually his hands – I saw him make some big drops on tape, one on a perfectly thrown 50 yard deep ball that wasn’t contested, and another one hotly contested in the endzone. It will take a top tier NFL corner who has high speed and quickness to be able to run with Jeudy. I may be a bit lower on him than others, but he should still become a top WR in some lucky team’s offense.
Highlight:
#3 Henry Ruggs III – Alabama
It’s not often a team’s 3rd WR ranks as high as the 3rd best receiver in the draft class. Alabama has an embarrassment of riches at receiver, including the blazing fast Ruggs who ran a 4.27 ’40. He was the third WR to Jeudy and Devonta Smith and topped out at 46 catches and 746 yards as his career highs in a season, but his ability elevates him above most of this WR class. Ruggs’ hands are great and he rarely dropped anything over his college career, which allows him to maximize every target he gets. And while many super-fast NFL players can be the “falls down upon contact” type, Ruggs is a tough receiver who brings defenders to their knees in the open field. It was disappointing to see him not work well as a deep receiver as much as you’d think; I noticed he had issues when defenders made contact with him. Ruggs has the upside of Tyreek Hill but the downside of John Ross, making him a true boom-or-bust prospect.
Highlight:
#4 Justin Jefferson – LSU
With Joe Burrow as his QB, Jefferson exploded for a 111/1540/18 (catches/yardsTDs) season and helped take the college football world by storm with such a devastating passing game. Jefferson’s 2019 numbers are jaw-dropping; he caught a ridiculous 83% of passes that came his way, and a contested ball was caught 92.3% of the time, which blows every other prospect’s percent out of the water. Jefferson has fantastic hands and was able to go up and catch some balls that appeared to be out of his range at first. He also crushed the combine, running a 4.43 ’40 and surpassed most peoples’ athletic expectations. The main concern I have with Jefferson is that he will likely be relegated to the slot, as he did rely on shorter routes and facing slot CBs. He wasn’t quite as adept at getting open via running great routes as others higher on this list; instead, I noticed he was better at getting open against zone defenses and would sit down in a hole and wait for the ball to be thrown to him. Jefferson could end up as the next Michael Thomas if used right.
Highlight
#5 Brandon Aiyuk – Arizona St.
Aiyuk (pronounced eye-yook) only got one full season to be a starter at Arizona State, but he made the most of it. Aiyuk explodes off the ball and dominated the competition at times. While he’s no speed demon at 4.50 ’40, he’s a threat to go deep and was very efficient despite not getting thrown to that far downfield. He tended to run deep or turn around with a hitch route, which CBs would often get fooled by. He’s lethal in the open with, with a devastating 10.9 YAC, which would be even more impressive if Lamb and Ruggs weren’t also YAC monsters. His miniscule contested catch rate is partially due to having so few opportunities, but he’s not a guy who’s going to go up and catch off-target passes. Aiyuk may worry some as he only became a starter in his senior year and doesn’t have the best hands, but his ability to get open and tear up the field with his phenomenal agility negates that for me.
Highlight
#6 Michael Pittman Jr. – USC
The son of former NFL running back Michael Pittman, the 6’ 4” 223 lbs receiver had a breakout 101/1269/11 season in his senior year at USC. I must say, I was very surprised when I turned on the tape for Pittman – he explodes off the line and totally dominated the competition. He had the benefit of some great QB play, but Pittman found himself wide open at times with his agility. Plus, when you’re 6’ 4”, you don’t have always have to be that open. Pittman has great hands and he caught 76% of the passes that came his way, and rarely made any drops. He looks faster than his 4.52 ’40, which is already incredibly impressive for a 223 pound man. He’s a decent runner after making the catch, though his YAC tanked due to being schemed many hitch routes that did not allow Pittman to run after the catch. My analytics told me to rank Pittman 11th, but after I watched his tape, I just couldn’t do that. He’s got the hands, size and speed, route-running… he’s not going to be a game-breaking WR and likely won’t be a big deep threat, but he’s the guy on any 3rd down/4th down/redzone situation.
Highlight
#7 Tee Higgins – Clemson
The 6’ 3” Higgins was a dangerous weapon for Clemson as he topped 2000 yards and 25 total TDs in his two seasons as a starter. He was Trevor Lawrence’s best playmaker as he averaged 19.8 yards per catch. While he’s only a small threat after the catch, Higgins’ best skill is as a jump ball receiver downfield. Tee dominated the competition on deep passes and has the ability to reel in passes that are overthrown. His hands are fine; he struggled with a few focus drops, but it’s not a huge concern. My biggest concern is his ability to separate. Higgins is a guy we need testing numbers on – with his Pro Day cancelled we won’t be getting that – so it’s hard to project if he will have trouble separating from NFL CBs. He has the potential to be a #1 receiver, but with the recent wave of tall rookie WRs who have relied on winning jump balls, I’m wary on Higgins. He’s risky enough I wouldn’t want to spend a 1st rounder on him.
Highlight
#8 Denzel Mims – Baylor
Mims is a scary size-speed athlete coming in at 6’ #” 207 lbs and running a 4.38 ’40. He started a full 3 years at Baylor and had a fantastic first season as a sophomore, going for over 1000 yards, but only had 1799 yards his next two seasons. After watching some tape on Mims, one thing is apparent – he doesn’t play at 4.38 speed. Mims uses his size well and uses his large frame to come down with high throws, but I didn’t see him get wide open very often. I don’t believe Baylor’s offense had him run a full route tree. He rarely did much after the catch and was not a big threat to break a tackle. His hands were a bit concerning, as I spotted him drop a couple tough, but catchable balls. PFF also stated that he dropped 16.7% of his targets in 2018, so while he took a step forward in 2019, it’s still a reasonable concern. I did also notice that Baylor’s QB play was lackluster and they should have focused on giving Mims more chances, and I think his stats get punished more than they should. While I have been harsh on Mims, he has the upside to become a true #1 if he improves his route-running and decreases the drops. I don’t quite understand the hype he’s getting when Pittman Jr. looks like the one who should be getting it.
Highlight
#9 Chase Claypool – Notre Dame
Claypool is another freakish size-speed combo who ran a 4.42 at 6’ 4” 238 lbs. He’s been a starter for a few seasons now, but it hasn’t been until 2019 when he broke out for a 66/1037/13 line. On tape Claypool lived up to his testing numbers as he was able to run with CBs on a consistent basis. He was at his best after he got the ball in his hands, as he not only broke tackles on a consistent basis, but was also a very tough runner. He’s a fantastic blocker on run plays and for screens. His yards per route run is below average, but I think it would be at least average if he had decent QB play, as he frequently got open but either was thrown a poor ball or the QB didn’t send the ball his way. His hands are a bit of an issue – on one hand, he made several awkward catches due to bad throws, but he also missed some easier ones on route to a 9.6% drop rate. I think he may be best off switching to TE, as his speed will let him blow by LBs and he should be strong enough if he gains some weight. He has the body to become the next Darren Waller, who was a nobody as a late round WR but transitioned to TE and is a difficult coverage assignment. There’s a danger that he becomes the next Devin Funchess or Kelvin Benjamin, but I think Claypool has the quickness to be better than they were.
Highlight
#10 Jalen Reagor – TCU
Reagor’s graph might look a bit underwhelming, but there’s some caveats. First, TCU’s QB play was atrocious, as PFF remarks that he was thrown an accurate ball 30.7% of the time! That tanks his YPRR. On tape Reagor has top-notch speed and acceleration, as he consistently blows by DBs. Several times on tape he was running free downfield with several steps on defenders. If paired with a real QB, he likely would have scored several many more deep TDs. He’s also not just a one-trick pony running go routes; Reagor is a dangerous weapon in the screen game and is a better route-runner than I thought he’d be. He will also make for a top-tier punt returner, as he had some good returns. The biggest problem with Reagor is his hands – a 13% drop rate is too high, and they weren’t all focus drops. He doesn’t have the greatest wingspan at 5’ 10”, and a few times I noted that drops happened as his arms were fully extended. If Reagor can improve his catching, then he’s going to be some lucky team’s deep threat that defenses will have to focus on. Give him a QB who throws a great deep ball like Russell Wilson and I think he’ll pan out.
Highlight
#11 Laviska Shenault Jr. – Colorado
Shenault is a very intriguing receiver, as he doesn’t exact fill a typical WR archetype. He’s got average size, good hands, decent speed, but struggled with injuries through his college career. He pulled out of the combine after pulling a hammy after running a 4.58 ’40. When he’s on the field, he’s a playmaker who is adept at breaking tackles and making cuts to gain extra yards. His ability to fight for 50-50 balls is decent – his contested catch rate looks bad because the top percentile is Jefferson’s 92%, but CBs weren’t able to bully him. Shenault is a passable route runner but needs work, many times he was simply schemed to get the ball instead of being asked to beat a CB straight-up. He’s also not quite fast enough to be a consistent deep threat, and he misplayed a few deep balls. All in all, Shenault has a very high ceiling with his strong hands and playmaking in the open field, but his biggest hurdle will be to stay healthy on a consistent basis.
Highlight
#12 K. J. Hamler – Penn St.
Hamler is such a frustrating receiver to watch; he’s got speed for days and gets open all of the time. Getting paired up one-on-one against a CB or S is child’s play for KJ, as he runs crisp routes and runs circles around defenders trying to keep up with him. The big problem is his 16.9% drop rate – he dropped 12 passes (56 catches)! That’s simply not acceptable for an NFL receiver. He did haul in some difficult passes on low throws. Size is also an issue for Hamler, as he’s just 5’ 8” 178 lbs. He simply can’t hold his own on contested passes and will be a slot-only receiver. But that’s not his game; getting open with his quickness and earning extra yards after the catch is another strength. He’ll be a great returner… but there’s a real risk that Hamler ends up as a gimmicky wildcard player instead of an NFL-caliber slot WR. If he displayed better hands, he’d likely in the top 8 receivers.
#13 Tyler Johnson – Minnesota
A rare hometown product, Johnson was uber productive the past two years, combining for 165/2478/25 over that stretch. He’s rumored to have tumbled down draft boards recently due to a lack of testing numbers. Sitting out the combine wasn’t a wise move, but he likely had no idea his Pro Day was going to be canceled. Johnson wasn’t going to test all that well, but that’s not his game – Tyler’s greatest skill is his route-running. He’s a technician who uses quick moves to get open at will. CBs had trouble sticking with him one-on-one, and even when they got close, Tyler’s one of the best WRs at catching contested passes. He’s certainly one of the stronger receivers in the class, as he plays well through contact. His hands are pretty good; his 2018 season was a bit problematic with drops, but he took a big step forward in 2019 with just a 6.3% drop rate. He increased his catch % from 62% to 73% in that span. So while Johnson is unlikely to become a team’s #1 WR at any point, I like his chances to become a secondary or tertiary option in the NFL. His tape is filled with some great plays and I think his game will translate well at the next level.
#14 Bryan Edwards – South Carolina
Edwards was a rare 4 year starter at South Carolina, but never truly had a breakout year, as he never topped 850 yards or 72 catches. The 6’ 2” 216 lbs receiver is a bit of an oddball compared to the usual WR archetypes; he caught nearly half his passes from screens despite being a bit on the slower side for a receiver. Edwards is a threat after the catch, as he powers through defenders like a HB would. As a typical receiver, he works fine on short routes as he’s got reliable hands, but he doesn’t get much separation when heading further downfield. What’s worse is that he failed to make several catches on contested passes; I thought a tough receiver like Edwards would thrive on these plays. South Carolina tried to use him like they did Deebo Samuel, but he’s just not the same guy. He’s also had a few injury issues. Edwards has some strengths, but I have a hard time seeing what role he’ll fit in the NFL.
#15 Antonio Gandy-Golden – Liberty
Hailing from Liberty, a university in Virginia that I hadn’t heard of prior to scouting AGG, but after three straight seasons of 1000+ yards and 10 TDs, AGG has set himself up as a mid-round pick. He’s also one of the biggest receivers in the draft at 6’ 4” 223 lbs, and he uses his large frame and snag balls. Several times he leapt over a defender, and he projects to be a very good redzone receiver. For a bigger receiver, he’s a much better tackle breaker as compared to Higgins and Mims. AGG also caught basically everything that came his way. The main concern here is with the competition level… Gandy-Golden was basically going up against the worst DBs Division I football has to offer, and his numbers would not be as good-looking if he went up against SEC defenses. There’s a definite risk that Gandy-Golden’s abilities won’t translate to the NFL, but there’s a whole lot to like regardless.
#16 Devin Duvernay – Texas
Duvernay was a no-name receiver before he stepped up with a huge 2019 season with a 105/1392/9 season, taking over as Texas’ top receiver. The 5’ 10” 200 lbs receiver ran a 4.39 ’40 and it shows. Duvernay can blow by unwary DBs and was a dangerous open field runner when screens where thrown his way. His stats were inflated by screens, as he caught the most in the country. Even with that fact there, Duvernay still caught 60% of passes in contested situations and only dropped 2.7% of his targets. The main downside with Duvernay is his inexperience with a CB press. He struggled with DBs that were physical with him, but due to poor competition, he didn’t encounter this often. Duvernay will make for a nice playmaking slot WR, but if he wants to grow into a top WR, he’ll have to work on dueling against real CBs.
4th Round Tier
#17 Gabriel Davis – UCF
Davis committed to the NFL as a junior after posting a 72/1241/12 season at UCF. Known as a speedster, the 6’ 2” 216 lbs receiver ran a very simple route tree and beat up on some rather poor competition, and compounding on that, he had a lackluster combine. Davis has strong straight-line speed on tape and used this to be a threat on some long TDs. His route running was hit and miss, with some double moves leaving some CBs in his dust, but he doesn’t have great acceleration. Davis also is not a threat in the open field, as he usually went down upon first contact. He has quality hands and was a solid red zone weapon. As one of the younger prospects in this class, I see Davis as a guy who has room to grow. More of a high ceiling/low floor prospect.
#18 Van Jefferson – Florida
Vanchi “Van” Jefferson started out at Ole Miss, alongside NFL starters A. J. Brown and D. K. Metcalf, but eventually transferred to Florida, but he topped out at a 49/657/6. With his RAS score coming out as a perfectly average 5 and the fact that he’ll be 24 by the time the 2020 season starts, that’s a lot of reasons not to like Jefferson. However, I found that he was a dependable receiver in Florida’s offense, and his numbers were hindered by poor QB play. Jefferson runs some quality routes and found himself open even against top tier competition. He’s got soft hands and catches most everything his way. That’s about it for his strengths, though, as his ability as a deep threat, inability to break tackles, and inability to play through contact dropped him down this list. I could see Jefferson ending up as a team’s 3rd receiver, but that may be his ceiling as an NFL receiver.
#19 Isaiah Hodgins – Oregon St.
Hodgins, a 6’ 3” WR, had a big year at Oregon State with a 86/1164/13 line. His graph looks pretty darn good too – Hodgins had the best drop rate in the class, with a tiny 1.1% drop rate. Hodgins has incredibly soft hands and reels in everything that comes his way, and with his size, he can go up and catch most anything around him. I saw him make several plays on the sideline and he displayed some fantastic body control. There’s some problems with Hodgins’ ability to separate and make plays, however. He struggled against press coverage and stronger CBs had more success against him. He’s also rather easy to tackle in the open field, as he rarely breaks any tackles. Hodgins doesn’t have a high ceiling as he will likely struggle against top CBs, but I could see him working as a scrappy 3rd receiver who will be known for making great catches.
#20 Antonio Gibson – Memphis
Gibson is a peculiar prospect, as he barely played at all in college, finishing his career with 44 catches and 33 rushing attempts. Usually a player who barely played at a smaller school would not make it on to my radar, but Gibson has some incredible elusiveness as he forced 33 missed tackles on his 71 touches last year. The 6’3” 228 lbs man is more of an offensive weapon than a HB or WR, as he doesn’t have the polish to run routes and is too unwieldy to be a HB. On tape, he shows ample patience before firing to top gear when he spots a hole. He’s perfect for kick returns and should make it as a punt returner too. He’s a Tavon Austin type – worthy of 5-7 touches via gimmicky plays every game (and also manning the return duties), but I highly doubt he turns into anything more than that. He’ll likely be overdrafted and will generate a few highlight plays, but I can’t see him panning out as a starter on an offense.
#21 Lynn Bowden – Kentucky
While Bowden profiles as a slot receiver, you wouldn’t be able to tell that from his 2019 season, as he played both HB and QB! He ran for 1468 yards, passed for 403, and caught 348. Like Gibson at #20, his appeal is going to come from his elusiveness. He brings sub 4.5 speed and will also be an option for kick and punt returns. I have my doubts Bowden will make it as a receiver – his 16.2% drop rate is quite abysmal – but he’s a great option for screens and jet sweeps. All in all, Bowden’s a less explosive athlete than Gibson, but has far more experience and has the flexibility to be used as a HB. Perhaps Ty Montgomery would be a good comparison for him.
#22 Donovan Peoples-Jones – Michigan
A 5-star recruit coming out of high school, Peoples-Jones had an insanely high 44.5” high jump at the combine and is a top notch athlete. However, he was a massive disappointment at Michigan, as he never became an every-down player and was unproductive when on the field. Despite his athletic ability, Peoples-Jones has no explosiveness and has trouble losing defenders. He runs routes very stiffly. You would hope he could work as a deep receiver, but he had trouble coming down with passes past 15 yards, though I will note he had to deal with some terrible QB play. He made a few tough catches, but also had an abysmal game vs Ohio State with 3 drops. Peoples-Jones is worth a Day 3 pick just to see if a coaching staff can start from scratch and see if they can mold him into something, but I don’t love his chances.
#23 Collin Johnson – Texas
I remember seeing Johnson in some 2020 mock drafts as a 1st rounder back in early 2019, but the hype for him has died off. The 6’ 5” 222 lbs receiver has size and good hands, but not much else. Johnson just doesn’t get much separation off the line and does not get physical with opposing CBs. Injuries cost him a chunk of the 2019 season, and that might be the reason for the poor season. His 2018 year was a good one with a 68/985/7 line, so if he can stay healthy, perhaps he could work his way into an NFL lineup. He could end up as a redzone receiver like the Saints used Brandon Coleman a few years back.
5th Round Tier
#24 John Hightower – Boise St.
If you’re looking for a WR with the ability to go deep and doesn’t have chronic dropping issues, Hightower might be your guy. He runs a 4.43 ’40 and isn’t on the smaller side (6’ 1”). Out of the 36 WRs I examined, he had the deepest average target of over 17 yards and averaged 18.5 yards per catch. Some issues with him involve a lack of strength and failing to come away with closely contested passes. He also played in a very weak Mountain West conference, and his play may drop off transitioning to the NFL compared to other WR prospects. Unlike some guys in this class, he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses and would be worth a Day 3 pick.
#25 Quintez Cephus – Wisconsin
Cephus is one of the toughest receivers in this draft class and he relies on hauling in contested passes as his bread and butter. That’s what will have to be his role in the NFL as he ran a 4.73 ’40 at the combine, and while he doesn’t look quite that slow on film, he does not separate well. At 6’ 0” 202 lbs, Cephus will have a harder time using his physical prowess against NFL DBs. He put up a 56/901/7 line in his junior year, but it’s worth noting that he was expelled from the team for all of 2018 due to allegations of sexual misconduct. He was found not guilty and was allowed to return. With some big red flags in his profile, Cephus may transition to the NFL poorly, but his strong hands and ability to beat down physically on CBs might just be enough to let him find a role.
#26 James Proche – SMU
Proche (pronounced ‘pro-shay’) is seemingly this year’s “small school ultra-productive WR”. He’s been a starter for 4 years and finishes his career with a 301/3949/39 line, most of that coming in his final two seasons. The 5’ 11” receiver didn’t flash all that much on tape, and we don’t have his testing numbers. Proche has a bit of quickness on his routes and rarely drops anything, and he even made a few one-handed catches. He offers very little after the catch, usually going down upon first contact. He’ll likely be a slot-only receiver in the NFL due to his size and lack of top speed. It’s hard to project if he’ll be anything in the NFL as he faced very soft competition, though we have seen Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton come out of SMU and become quality NFL WRs.
#27 Joe Reed – Virginia
The son of former Viking Jake Reed, Joe had a very strong combine and put himself on the radar. Virginia used him like an offensive weapon – he was used on many screens and was passed to downfield on average just 8 yards. He’s a decent threat in the open field, as he left some defenders behind in the dust. He’s also a top-notch kick returner, with 5 kick return TDs in the past 3 years. He’s also got strong hands and was able to reel in some passes that were off-target. However, Reed was a non-factor as a deep threat and was a lackluster route-runner, so he’ll need plenty of development if he wants to have a role as an NFL WR.
6th Round Tier
#28 Binjimen Victor – Ohio St.
Trapped behind a stacked WR corps, the 6’ 3” Victor didn’t get to do much at Ohio State, topping out at 35/573/6 in his one year as a starter. I can describe him in one word: lanky. Victor looks more like a basketball player with how skinny he is. He attacks the ball and uses his large frame to reel in passes. Unfortunately, he’s not all that fast and lacks the agility to lose defenders with a move or two. He is also on the low end strength-wise and doesn’t do well against contact. Victor will be worth throwing a jump ball to every once in a while, but he’s just a guy unless he bulks up and plays at a faster speed.
#29 K. J. Hill – Ohio St.
It feels weird to put Hill here after just complimenting the Buckeye WR corps, as he was ahead of Terry McLaurin last year, who’s gone on to become the Skins’ #1 WR already. KJ had a very strong 2018 season, but took a step back in his senior year and also tested poorly. It’s been proven that short (5’ 11”) and slow (4.6 ’40) WRs don’t make it in the NFL, and Hill must fight an uphill battle. On tape he wasn’t all that impressive, as I noticed he had trouble tacking the ball. He lacks explosion when trying to run a route. Perhaps Hill can channel his 2018 performance, but there’s just too many red flags here to consider him the prospect he was a year ago… he probably should have left a year early!
This is getting ridiculously long, so I’ll go through these last guys quickly.
#30 Quez Watkins – Southern Miss.
One of the fastest WRs in this draft class running a 4.35 ’40, Watkins used speed to tear up the competition and was a competent punt returner. He’s likely to be in for a rude awakening in the NFL where guys who run a 4.3 can vanish – he ran a simple route tree and plays with minimal strength. If paired up with a CB who can match his speed, it’s over. He’ll warrant a Day 3 pick.
7th Round Tier
#31 Jauan Jennings – Tennessee
Jauan (pronounced ja-wohn) Jennings had a quality 2019 with a 59/969/8 season, unlike many other of these late round prospects. However, he flunked the combine with a 4.72 ’40 while being 6’ 3” 215 lbs. He was productive with what QB play he had and was a monster to take down in the open field. However, he’s a plodder as a route runner and struggles to get open when he’s not being schemed open. He’s also got some off-the-field issues and has some injury issues. Jennings has more upside than some other players higher on this list, but the risk with him is palpable.
#32 Isaiah Coulter – Rhode Island
Coulter only started one year at WR, as he moved from linebacker to receiver! It’s hard to say much about him as an NFL prospect with only one year of play and facing minimal competition, but he looked pretty darn good on tape. The 6’ 1” 198 lbs receiver has some nice burst and was able to get open at will. He’s rather weak at the catch point and needs to add some muscle to his frame. I wouldn’t mind spending a late pick on him and give him some time to develop his skills as a receiver.
#33 Tyrie Cleveland – Florida
Cleveland is a project player who never broke out as a starter at Florida. He put himself on the radar with a strong combine, running a 4.46 ’40 at 6’ 2” 209 lbs. On tape, he does show speed, but that’s about it. He is a body-catcher and has had a history with drops. He showed some promise on kick returns and should be a solid gunner. But with lackluster hands, little strength, no luck as a deep receiver, and the inability to get Florida’s coaching staff to trust him, Cleveland should be considered a major project.
#34 Kalija Lipscomb – Vanderbilt
After having quality sophomore and junior seasons, Lipscomb’s play took a nosedive in 2019 with just 47/511/3 as a full-time player. Vanderbilt threw a bunch of screens his way, but Lipscomb barely had the ball thrown downfield for him. He has middling elusiveness. He’s got good hands, but doesn’t get open downfield all that often. Was basically erased when facing strong CBs. Lipscomb profiles as a backup NFL WR.
#35 Quartney Davis – Texas A&M
Davis is a quick receiver who runs some nice routes and was able to get open frequently, but that’s about all the positives I can give. He was very inefficient with the targets he got, and was rather weak getting yardage after making a catch. His speed is average, he was one of college football’s inefficient WRs on deep passes, and his drops were a problem. He plays like an undersized WR when he’s 6’ 1”. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes undrafted.
#36 Dezmon Patmon – Washington State
Patmon is another size-speed combo, who clocks in at 6’ 3” 225 lbs and ran a 4.48 ’40. He played in Washington State’s pass happy offense, but fell from #1 WR to #3 from 2018 to 2019. Patmon uses his size to go up and catch some overthrown passes and can fight through DB contact to catch a ball. He doesn’t appear to play at 4.48 speed, and is a non-threat with the ball in his hands. Dropped 11% of passes that came his way. Patmon looks like a quality Day 3 prospect on paper, but likely won’t live up to the expectations.
#37 Stephen Guidry – Miss St.
Mississippi State’s passing game was a disaster, and Guidry suffered with just a 49/827/8 line in two years there after transferring from a community college. He’s on my radar as a 6’ 3” 201 lbs guy with 4.47 ’40 speed, but had troubles getting open and dealt with drops.
#38 Juwan Johnson – Oregon
A massive 6’ 4” 230 lbs receiver, Johnson transferred from Penn State to Oregon, but couldn’t find success with Herbert at QB. He has a major issue with drops and has regressed for two straight seasons after a strong sophomore year. He’s slow on tape and is neither a deep threat nor dangerous with the ball in his hands. Perhaps he should transition to TE and try his luck there.
#39 Darnell Mooney - Tulane
Mooney turned some heads as he ran a 4.38 ’40, but he’s a small guy at 5’ 10” 175 lbs. A starter for three full years, Mooney had decent production. He has some drop issues and will have troubles going up against physical CBs. He could work as a special teamer and reserve receiver.
#40 Jeff Thomas – Miami
The smallest WR in this draft class (that I know of), the 5’ 8” 170 lbs Thomas runs a 4.45 ’40 and is a quality returner. He’s an explosive player in the open field, but simply isn’t going to cut it as a standard NFL WR. He’s been expelled from the Miami program once due to rule violations and attitude issues. Thomas will likely go undrafted but perhaps could make a roster as a returner.
Alright... which WRs do you like?
... and neither is this Chris guy.