Mondry's 2020 Deep Dive QB Rankings
Apr 18, 2020 15:15:35 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 1 more like this
Post by Mondry on Apr 18, 2020 15:15:35 GMT -6
I kind of loathe QB rankings. It’s often more about politics than anything else, I may like a guy but if no real GM is willing to spend a couple years developing that player he realistically has no shot as a late round or UDFA guy. Other times GM’s will make picks like Josh Allen and Daniel Jones simply because the group think says that they are good prospects and you usually don’t get fired for those kinds of misses.
I wish the NFL had a 54th roster spot dedicated solely to developmental QB’s so you could take the time to develop these guys without hurting you short term. It’s too bad the XFL is filing for bankruptcy, this was a nice spot for some of these guys to end up and the P.J. Williams' story is good overall too.
This class has two mega studs and then a bunch of guys you really gotta figure out what you want out of the QB. High upside low floor? Hi IQ jack of all trades? Big arm? Play making, risk taker? and so on, let's get into it.
#1 Tua Tagovailoa - For me, Tua offers up the best combination of arm talent, skills within the pocket, decision making, deep ball, and general play making ability in this class. He’s not better than Burrow in ALL of those categories mind you, but when I add everything up in my grading system he has a VERY slight edge overall.
As a guy on the internet making a QB ranking list, I’m okay putting Tua #1. Due to the injury of course a real GM who has the option between both players should 100% just take Burrow, there is not enough difference in their talent where that would ever take precedence over the hip injury concerns
Strengths
Weaknesses
#2 Joe Burrow - SURPRISE! J/k, it was probably pretty obvious Burrow would be #2 if he wasn't #1. These guys are both so talented, they both had elite supporting casts, It’s hard to really make a great argument for one over the other. Burrow’s arm strength isn’t a problem, but if he had elite arm talent he’d be even more of a total package.
Strengths
Weaknesses
#3 Jake Fromm - Deciphering this QB class kind of begins at #3 because Tua and Burrow are just easy slam dunks, there is not much real analysis to be done there.
Fromm gets my #3 spot because he’s the most NFL ready guy (not named Tua or Burrow) who can come in and help a team NOW. He doesn’t have nearly as high of a ceiling as some guys in this class but I don’t think those guys have too much of a realistic shot to ever see that ceiling either so it’s kind of pointless.
Georgia fired their offensive coordinator after the season and I saw a lot of bad X’s and O’s out of the Georgia offense on Fromm and Swift’s tape when I was scouting RB’s. They also had Fromm running 5 step drops on patterns you really never see anything but 3 step drops on and 3 step drops for slants and screens that should just be “Grip it and rip it!”. It felt like, for whatever reason, the Georgia OC basically added two steps to every drop.
Maybe it’s Fromm doing his own thing but I can’t imagine he has permission to completely undermine the system and went rogue. Why would you fire the OC if that were the case?
The result is Fromm throws behind or late fairly often outside the hash marks and deeper throws down the field but when you add two steps to every drop it really starts to make sense. Fromm doesn’t have the strongest arm so I think a lot of people just say “whoa he has a noodle, that’s why he’s always behind or late so often” and it exacerbated how weak his arm actually is.
What I tried to do is watch the throws where the drop didn’t negatively impact the timing of the throw and Fromm was much better on roll outs, off platform throws, and throws where he gets flushed out of the pocket.
Fromm isn’t perfect by any means, even if you’re willing to give the OC a good chunk of the blame but I think if you’re NE or NO and you want to replace Brady or Brees, Fromm could come in and run those offenses.
Strengths
Weaknesses
#4 Jacob Eason - Eason to me has a good combination of upside but isn’t a total hail mary to actually tap into some of that potential. He has a big arm and his 64% completion rate in 2019 is already better than Josh Allens after two years in the pros. The difference being Eason is more of a statue in the pocket where Allen’s athleticism is a big plus.
With that said, I think if Eason had gone back to school for another year we might be talking quite a bit more about him being one of the top guys, though I understand why he didn’t with 2 more studs coming out in the 2021 class.
Strengths
Weaknesses
#5 Jalen Hurts - Hurts is next in line to benefit from Lincoln Riley’s Air Raid offense at Oklahoma that over inflated what Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray were really capable of doing. In 2018, I had Lamar Jackson #2 overall (behind Rosen, oops!) and the big reason why is that when I put on Lamar’s tape, he didn’t look like the run first, deer in the headlights as a passer, everyone was talking him up to be. In fact, he looked on par with most of his class as a passer and then you add that athletic ability and I was sold.
Hurts is the opposite. I see a guy who misses 40 yard TD’s because he immediately wants to become a runner at the first sign of problems. The difference is using your mobility to keep your eyes down field, extend the play, and find an open WR compared to relying on your mobility and giving up on the pass.
Hurts has a long way to go as a passer, he does not anticipate well at all and is more of a “wait and see” passer, meaning he waits for the WR to break and come open, then throws it but by then it’s often too late and the defender has time to come back and make a play to break it up.
He reminds me more of RGIII and once RGIII lost his electric running ability he never developed enough skills as a passer to remain viable. Hurts is 10 pounds heavier and an inch shorter while being built like a tank but I just wonder how much punishment a QB can take and keep going.
Now I realize I just talked a lot of smack about Hurts, but the reason he’s #5 is the more film I watched, the more he grew on me. By all accounts he’s an awesome dude who handled some big time adversity in his career and he is an absolute beast in the run game and out of all the high upside guys with low floors I’d be willing to place my bet on a kid like this.
Strengths
Weaknesses
#6 Justin Herbert - Two games into Herbert’s film and I was stumped, he looked AWFUL! His footwork was all over the place, there was a throw his lower body was aimed toward the middle of the field but he was throwing to the sideline and he missed it by three yards and practically hit the cheerleaders! This guy’s the consensus #3 QB? I don’t get it!
Then I watched Brett Kollman’s video and it started to make sense. Herbert went B-A-N-A-N-A-S against Colorado state, a bad defense even by college standards but I guess it was enough to propel him up draft boards.
My opinion is if you’re a 4 year starter and going to be good in the NFL you should never look bad in college and you should consistently look good. Herbert was neither and Kollman makes the comparison to Mitchell Trubisky which I agree with but he’s even worse because Mitch only really played 1 year in college.
Even writing up this ranking I have a hard time deciding what to put for strengths (and weaknesses) because they seemed to change from game to game. I’ve got Herbert #6 more so because it’s just hard to find 5 guys better than him in this weak class.
Strengths
Weaknesses
#7 Anthony Gordon - It’s always tough to know what you’re going to get from one of these air raid guys that throws it 50 times a game but I actually came away fairly impressed and Gardner Minshew made a splash in the NFL coming from the same offense.
The screen game isn’t super important in the NFL but he is amazing at it. He has a super quick release and always puts the ball on the WR accurately to pick up Yac.
Overall Gordon isn’t a special talent or anything but I think he has solid QB skills that can be developed and worked with.
Strengths
Weaknesses
#8 Jordan Love - Part of me really likes what I see from Love but the other, smarter, more rational side of me hates him. There’s no doubt this guy has a good arm and makes some wild Patrick Mahomes, esque plays but unlike Mahomes, he lacks all the other refinement and skills necessary to make it viable without the severe consequences that come with this type of play.
In 2019 Love had 20 TD’s and 17 Int’s. There is already a guy like that in the NFL with a much better pedigree who can’t find work in Jameis Winston. Love is the classic “what if” candidate, what if he reaches his potential and someone will fall for it. I’d give him a 2% chance to achieve it.
Strengths
Weaknesses
After this you’re looking at a bunch of long shots who probably never get a chance but I’d order them like this. Last year, Gardner Minshew was in this area!
#9 Cole Mcdonald
#10 Nate Stanley
#11 Kelly Bryant
#12 Tyler Huntley
#13 Riley Neal
#14 James Morgan
#15 Shea Patterson
I wish the NFL had a 54th roster spot dedicated solely to developmental QB’s so you could take the time to develop these guys without hurting you short term. It’s too bad the XFL is filing for bankruptcy, this was a nice spot for some of these guys to end up and the P.J. Williams' story is good overall too.
This class has two mega studs and then a bunch of guys you really gotta figure out what you want out of the QB. High upside low floor? Hi IQ jack of all trades? Big arm? Play making, risk taker? and so on, let's get into it.
#1 Tua Tagovailoa - For me, Tua offers up the best combination of arm talent, skills within the pocket, decision making, deep ball, and general play making ability in this class. He’s not better than Burrow in ALL of those categories mind you, but when I add everything up in my grading system he has a VERY slight edge overall.
As a guy on the internet making a QB ranking list, I’m okay putting Tua #1. Due to the injury of course a real GM who has the option between both players should 100% just take Burrow, there is not enough difference in their talent where that would ever take precedence over the hip injury concerns
Strengths
- Strong Anticipation Thrower
- Better Arm Than Burrow
- Excellent Play Action Game
- Excellent Vision
- Uses Eyes to Manipulate Defenders
Weaknesses
- Gets Invested in a Play the Longer it Goes on
- Doesn't Read Leverage at a High Level
- Ball Security as a Scrambler
#2 Joe Burrow - SURPRISE! J/k, it was probably pretty obvious Burrow would be #2 if he wasn't #1. These guys are both so talented, they both had elite supporting casts, It’s hard to really make a great argument for one over the other. Burrow’s arm strength isn’t a problem, but if he had elite arm talent he’d be even more of a total package.
Strengths
- Great Accuracy All Over the Field
- Read Leverage Better Than Tua
- Silky Smooth Foot Work
- Confident and Aggressive
- Uses Eyes to Manipulate Defenders
Weaknesses
- Most "Negative" Plays Came Deeper Down the Field Where Velocity Matters More
- So Confident Held the Ball too Long at Times
- Ball Security as a Scrambler
#3 Jake Fromm - Deciphering this QB class kind of begins at #3 because Tua and Burrow are just easy slam dunks, there is not much real analysis to be done there.
Fromm gets my #3 spot because he’s the most NFL ready guy (not named Tua or Burrow) who can come in and help a team NOW. He doesn’t have nearly as high of a ceiling as some guys in this class but I don’t think those guys have too much of a realistic shot to ever see that ceiling either so it’s kind of pointless.
Georgia fired their offensive coordinator after the season and I saw a lot of bad X’s and O’s out of the Georgia offense on Fromm and Swift’s tape when I was scouting RB’s. They also had Fromm running 5 step drops on patterns you really never see anything but 3 step drops on and 3 step drops for slants and screens that should just be “Grip it and rip it!”. It felt like, for whatever reason, the Georgia OC basically added two steps to every drop.
Maybe it’s Fromm doing his own thing but I can’t imagine he has permission to completely undermine the system and went rogue. Why would you fire the OC if that were the case?
The result is Fromm throws behind or late fairly often outside the hash marks and deeper throws down the field but when you add two steps to every drop it really starts to make sense. Fromm doesn’t have the strongest arm so I think a lot of people just say “whoa he has a noodle, that’s why he’s always behind or late so often” and it exacerbated how weak his arm actually is.
What I tried to do is watch the throws where the drop didn’t negatively impact the timing of the throw and Fromm was much better on roll outs, off platform throws, and throws where he gets flushed out of the pocket.
Fromm isn’t perfect by any means, even if you’re willing to give the OC a good chunk of the blame but I think if you’re NE or NO and you want to replace Brady or Brees, Fromm could come in and run those offenses.
Strengths
- High IQ Field General
- Mental Toughness
- Quick and Compact Release
- Goes Through Progressions Well
- Reads Leverage Well
Weaknesses
- Mediocre Arm Talent
- Smallish Hands
- Not a Great Athlete
#4 Jacob Eason - Eason to me has a good combination of upside but isn’t a total hail mary to actually tap into some of that potential. He has a big arm and his 64% completion rate in 2019 is already better than Josh Allens after two years in the pros. The difference being Eason is more of a statue in the pocket where Allen’s athleticism is a big plus.
With that said, I think if Eason had gone back to school for another year we might be talking quite a bit more about him being one of the top guys, though I understand why he didn’t with 2 more studs coming out in the 2021 class.
Strengths
- Arm Strength
- Effective Play Action Game
- Compact, Over The Shoulder Release, Also Saw Side Arm and Three Quarter Releases
- Good Anticipation
- Toughness - Can Throw a Strike Knowing a Big Hit is Coming
Weaknesses
- Statue in the Pocket
- Trusts His Arm Too Much to Squeeze in a Throw
- Only played One Good Year in College
#5 Jalen Hurts - Hurts is next in line to benefit from Lincoln Riley’s Air Raid offense at Oklahoma that over inflated what Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray were really capable of doing. In 2018, I had Lamar Jackson #2 overall (behind Rosen, oops!) and the big reason why is that when I put on Lamar’s tape, he didn’t look like the run first, deer in the headlights as a passer, everyone was talking him up to be. In fact, he looked on par with most of his class as a passer and then you add that athletic ability and I was sold.
Hurts is the opposite. I see a guy who misses 40 yard TD’s because he immediately wants to become a runner at the first sign of problems. The difference is using your mobility to keep your eyes down field, extend the play, and find an open WR compared to relying on your mobility and giving up on the pass.
Hurts has a long way to go as a passer, he does not anticipate well at all and is more of a “wait and see” passer, meaning he waits for the WR to break and come open, then throws it but by then it’s often too late and the defender has time to come back and make a play to break it up.
He reminds me more of RGIII and once RGIII lost his electric running ability he never developed enough skills as a passer to remain viable. Hurts is 10 pounds heavier and an inch shorter while being built like a tank but I just wonder how much punishment a QB can take and keep going.
Now I realize I just talked a lot of smack about Hurts, but the reason he’s #5 is the more film I watched, the more he grew on me. By all accounts he’s an awesome dude who handled some big time adversity in his career and he is an absolute beast in the run game and out of all the high upside guys with low floors I’d be willing to place my bet on a kid like this.
Strengths
- Elite Running QB
- Slow Starter But Got Better As the Game Went On
- Built Like a RB
- Big Play Threat
- Good Mobility in the Pocket to Extend Plays
Weaknesses
- Missed Passing TD's to Tuck it and Run Early
- "Wait and See" Thrower, Lacks Anticipation
- Release Seems Slow
- Turnover / Mistake Prone
- Will Need to Learn a New System in the NFL
#6 Justin Herbert - Two games into Herbert’s film and I was stumped, he looked AWFUL! His footwork was all over the place, there was a throw his lower body was aimed toward the middle of the field but he was throwing to the sideline and he missed it by three yards and practically hit the cheerleaders! This guy’s the consensus #3 QB? I don’t get it!
Then I watched Brett Kollman’s video and it started to make sense. Herbert went B-A-N-A-N-A-S against Colorado state, a bad defense even by college standards but I guess it was enough to propel him up draft boards.
My opinion is if you’re a 4 year starter and going to be good in the NFL you should never look bad in college and you should consistently look good. Herbert was neither and Kollman makes the comparison to Mitchell Trubisky which I agree with but he’s even worse because Mitch only really played 1 year in college.
Even writing up this ranking I have a hard time deciding what to put for strengths (and weaknesses) because they seemed to change from game to game. I’ve got Herbert #6 more so because it’s just hard to find 5 guys better than him in this weak class.
Strengths
- High Upside
- Physical Traits
- High Character And Great Teammate
Weaknesses
- Inconsistent From One Play to the Next
- Mechanically I see Issues
- When Things Went Poorly So Did He
- Needs to Get Rid of the Ball And Live to Fight Another Day
- Thrived Off the College Screen Game
#7 Anthony Gordon - It’s always tough to know what you’re going to get from one of these air raid guys that throws it 50 times a game but I actually came away fairly impressed and Gardner Minshew made a splash in the NFL coming from the same offense.
The screen game isn’t super important in the NFL but he is amazing at it. He has a super quick release and always puts the ball on the WR accurately to pick up Yac.
Overall Gordon isn’t a special talent or anything but I think he has solid QB skills that can be developed and worked with.
Strengths
- Quick and Compact Release
- Stays Coiled Up in a Good Throwing Position
- Found the Check Down When Everything Else Was Covered
- Good Anticipation
- Improved His Willingness to Throw The Ball Away When Needed
Weaknesses
- Could Add Weight and Get Stronger
- Needs Better Internal Clock in the Pocket
- Overreacted to Pressure
#8 Jordan Love - Part of me really likes what I see from Love but the other, smarter, more rational side of me hates him. There’s no doubt this guy has a good arm and makes some wild Patrick Mahomes, esque plays but unlike Mahomes, he lacks all the other refinement and skills necessary to make it viable without the severe consequences that come with this type of play.
In 2019 Love had 20 TD’s and 17 Int’s. There is already a guy like that in the NFL with a much better pedigree who can’t find work in Jameis Winston. Love is the classic “what if” candidate, what if he reaches his potential and someone will fall for it. I’d give him a 2% chance to achieve it.
Strengths
- Arm Talent
- Improvisation skills
- Good on Designed Roll Outs
- NFL Caliber Athlete
Weaknesses
- Reckless With the Ball, Turnover Prone
- Predetermined Throws Even Into Double Coverage
- Misreads Defenses / Doesn't Understand Coverage
- Takes Bad Sacks
- Liability in the Red Zone
After this you’re looking at a bunch of long shots who probably never get a chance but I’d order them like this. Last year, Gardner Minshew was in this area!
#9 Cole Mcdonald
#10 Nate Stanley
#11 Kelly Bryant
#12 Tyler Huntley
#13 Riley Neal
#14 James Morgan
#15 Shea Patterson
... and neither is this Chris guy.