Post by Mondry on Apr 13, 2020 11:44:31 GMT -6
NOTE - As I was taking my time writing this up I lost the whole post and had to start over. Sorry if the quality takes a dip, I just want to get through RB now. 
-NOTE
It's tough to get too excited about RB's knowing the Vikings don't really need one but if you play fantasy football or have a dynasty league it's still nice to know who these guys are. This is just my basic top 10 list but to give you something interesting I also plan to make a top 25 with this class and the previous 2 classes as a bonus!
#1. J.K. Dobbins - Dobbins really impressed me at Ohio State. He made it his mission to break Eddie George's single season rushing record (for ohio state) and did just that, rushing for 2003 yards. Keep in mind Ezekiel Elliot also went to Ohio State and his best year went for 1,878 rushing yards. I love that kind of determination and goal setting, it tells me a player is willing to bust his a$$ to improve and get better and make something like that happen. Of course he also has the TALENT to get it done too.
Dobbins NFL comparison for me would be Ray Rice with small flashes of Ladanian Tomlinson. Dobbins has excellent Vision, quickness, feet, and short area burst that allows him to deflect / redirect the worst a defender has to offer and stay on his feet to force another tackler to get him down.
If you remember my rankings from 2018, I'm a big proponent of ball security. Dobbins touched the ball 796 times with 5 fumbles, a rate of 1 fumble every 159 carries.
Dobbins could improve in pass blocking and had some concentration drops as a receiver.
#2 D'eandre Swift - Swift is a finesse back with power compared to a power back with finesse if that makes any sense. I've seen Swift out right juke guys who should have a clean shot at him and not even lay a finger on him and other times he can bust through a reach and usually doesn't go down to weaker arm tackles. He's had a couple plays where he jukes a guy, makes 2 defenders run into each other, reverses field, picks up a big gain and I'm like "wow, I haven't seen anyone do that since Barry Sanders!" and before anyone freaks out that I've already mentioned LT and Barry Sanders two prospects in, I'm not saying these guys are the second coming of those players, just that at times, there are flashes of similarity. Barry was Barry cause he could do crazy stuff all the time.
Swift has good hands and should be a potent weapon in the passing game.
Swift isn't the most elite athlete as he did post pretty poor numbers at the combine in some of the drills like a 7.12 3-cone and I did see him get caught from behind more than a guy like Jonathon Taylor. With that said, he doesn't look like a bad athlete on film and I put much more weight on the tape.
Swift touched the ball 515 times, fumbling 7 times for a rate of 1 fumble every 73 carries, about twice as often as Dobbins.
#3 Jonathon Taylor - Taylor may be the best pure runner in this class. His NFL comparison to me is easily Derrick Henry. Taylor is a load to bring down with great power and like Henry he has enough speed to breakaway for long TD's. Taylor didn't catch the ball much at Wisconsin but he did look decent in some of the 26 receptions he had his senior year.
I have two big concerns about Taylor as a prospect. Firstly, I noticed he wasn't always willing to put his body on the line as a blocker. He's this physical beast of a RB but it didn't really translate to his blocking. I've seen talented backs ride the pine before for being poor blockers or having blocking issues and while Taylor is too talented to be benched, he could be limited to a two down role.
Secondly, Taylor had 926 carries and fumbled 18 times for a rate of 1 fumble every 51 carries. This is another reason why I compare him to Derrick Henry, Henry lead the NFL in fumbles not including QB's. Part of it is these powerful runners tend to fight hard for extra yards but in doing so invite multiple tacklers to tie them up and go after the ball. Our very own Adrian Peterson also suffered from this problem and despite having the strongest hand shake on planet earth it didn't really matter. Bottom line, Taylor needs to improve his ball security and if he does, he has more than a fighting chance to be the top back from this class.
#4 A.J. Dillon - I did not expect to like Dillon as much as I do. His NFL comparison would be Legarette Blount and for the second time already this top 10, a little bit of Derrick Henry. Disagreeing with Dan a bit here, I actually thought Dillon had good vision and diagnosed plays pretty well as they unfolded. Rarely did I see him miss holes or leave yards on the table. Dillon has good footwork for a back this big, it doesn't look like he's plodding out there and while he obviously won't be making cuts like Swift can he's surprisingly slippery.
Dillon isn't as versatile as the first 3 runners on my list. He rarely had success on outside zone runs and struggles to go East / West and then transition to North and South. He does a lot better between the tackles in either Inside zone looks or power / gap runs where he can set up his blocks and get North / South quickly and an offensive coordinator would be wise to play to those strengths. With that said, Dillon was able to get the edge on plays that start inside, force the line backers or safeties to commit to those gaps, and THEN bounce it out after everyone gets sucked up which tells me he isn't as slow as one might think.
Dillon's blocking is a plus and I saw him make some well executed cut blocks on his film. As a receiver, I'll say the same thing I said about Taylor, he didn't do it a lot but I don't think he's a lost cause running traditional check down type routes out of the backfield.
In 845 carries Dillon had 8 fumbles for a rate of 1 fumble every 105 attempts.
#5 Zack Moss - Moss is like the little engine that could, not because he's small, he isn't, but in the sense that even though he isn't an elite athlete or really even a good athlete, he has solid technique and grinds out positive plays consistently and I find myself rooting for him. His NFL comparison is tough, I'd have to go back some and say maybe Ricky Williams. Moss plays like an old school back. He may not fit perfectly in this league anymore but I still like him to carve out a productive role in the NFL.
Moss has a fairly lengthy injury history that could work against him when it comes to teams boards, combined with a very poor 40 yard dash and it's possible Moss may be drafted far lower than the guys around him on my list so this will be something to keep an eye on draft day. He has the skills of a second or third rounder including strong blocking and receiving so I think if someone gives him a chance he will prove himself over time.
Moss had 778 career touches with 8 fumbles, for a rate of 1 fumble every 97 or so touches but in his final year Moss only had 1 fumble while carrying 263 times so it's possible he has improved his ball security which would be a nice bonus at this point.
#6 Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Speaking of the little engine that could... I love the 6-4 270 quote from one of his coaches and for those of you who don't know, CEH is actually 5-7, 207 but he's such a beast on the field and everyone thought he was too small as a freshman, 6-4 270 is kind of fitting!
All jokes aside, CEH's NFL comparison for me would be Devonta Freeman if you subtract some of the between the tackles capability Freeman can pull off but with better receiving skills. Freeman's listed at 5-8, 209 so CEH is in the ball park as far as size goes. I think CEH would thrive in a spread offense and at the very least should have a James White / Tarik Cohen kind of roll in the NFL but I think he has more potential as a runner than either of those two as well.
CEH had 2 fumbles in his entire career of 480 attempts, making the math pretty easy to do on this one, 1 fumble every 240 touches, the best in the class.
#7 Cam Akers - Aker's is kind of the opposite of Zach Moss, he has all the tools and physical traits to be an elite back but he struggles on the technical side of things from the film I watched. His NFL comparison for me is Marshawn Lynch, though at #7 I clearly don't think he's anywhere near Lynch's skill as of right now. In other words, Akers for me is a bit of a project but his upside is high enough that if he puts it all together, he could rival Dobbins, Taylor, and Swift in the end.
Often times on film I noticed Akers sees the cut back lane or see's a hole open but his body isn't able to cash in with sloppy footwork and sometimes even running into his own O-lineman. I think Akers would struggle in inside or outside zone where the back has to process multiple lanes, leverage, and diagnose the play as it unfolds and is a better fit for a gap / power scheme where pre-snap you know where the O-line is trying to create a hole and you have that one read and go.
With that said, Akers' O-line was terrible and it's possible I'm being too hard on him. FSU ran a lot of 10 personnel which is one back, no Tight end (or full back) and that's not the best fit for Aker's game so I admit there is a bit of a square peg / round hole situation going on. If a team like Tampa Bay takes Akers, who run a decent amount of gap, Akers could thrive right away and prove me wrong.
Akers had 656 touches and fumbled 10 times for a rate of 1 fumble every 65 touches, not quite as bad as Taylor but still near the bottom of this top 10.
#8 Eno Benjamin - Benjamin's NFL comparison would be Lesean Mccoy and given Benjamin's 6.97 three cone drill (2nd overall) and 4.25 second 20 shuttle (7th overall) the testing matches the film. He's a similar prospect to Clyde Edwards Helaire but CEH is the better receiver and provides a safer floor. If the Vikings were to move on from Cook eventually, Benjamin could be a solid option on the cheap to pair with Mattison.
Benjamin told the media that his two greatest points of emphasis going forward as a pro will be ball security and pass protection which is a good sign he knows they are weak points of his game. The Ball security is really interesting because before 2019 he had 1 fumble in 329 touches, then went on to fumble 6 times in 2019 for a total of 7 in 664 touches. That took him from absolutely elite ball security to 1 fumble every 94 touches which still isn't awful overall but for 2019 specifically it put him at 1 fumble every 55 touches, almost the worst on my list.
#9 Joshua Kelley - Kelley's NFL comparison would be Terrell Davis. Kelley is my favorite guy no one else is talking about. It wouldn't surprise me if he has a good rookie season and everyone else is like "where did this kid come from?". Kelley diagnoses defenses really well and has little wasted movement with his footwork. He uses that footwork to quickly change direction when a play breaks down and makes the most of angles and leverage.
Kelley is a strong pass catcher from what I saw and was used in more ways than just the typical check downs most backs are capable of.
Where kelley needs to get better fast is in pass blocking as it's something that could hold him back from getting enough playing time to show his stuff.
Kelley had 492 touches and 3 fumbles for 1 fumble every 164 touches.
#10 Ke'Shawn Vaughn - Vaughn's NFL comparison would be Cadillac Williams. Vaughn is a different player than Zach Moss but they kind of remind me of each other in the sense that I think Vaughn doesn't have much room left to grow but is a solid enough player right now that I think he could come in and on a short term basis help a team that needs RB help without investing draft capital in one of the big names, though ultimately a team would likely want to find more upside long term.
In 639 touches, Vaughn had 7 fumbles for a rate of 1 fumble per 91 touches.
Call me lazy if you want to but Danchat pretty much said everything I was going to say in his thread about Vaughn, I think he nailed it.
"Vaughn strikes me as of jack of all trades, master of none. His strength and motor are his best attributes, as he ended up with 3.7 average yards after contact. He’s got average speed for a 5’9” 205 lbs back, but not every elusive. He didn’t jump out on tape as his O-line hindered him from making many plays. He appears to be an average 3rd down back, as became more involved with the pass attack in 2019. It’s worth noting his 2018 season was much better than his 2019 one (7.9 YPC to 5.2), but I figure that’s likely due to his offensive line and Vanderbilt’s lack of a passing game.
"Vaughn is nothing special, but he doesn’t have any clear weaknesses. He’s an NFL caliber athlete who won’t go down without a fight, and if he gets put into a better offense, I wouldn’t be surprised if he breaks out as a low-end starter."
Well said my man, Dan! Hey for all the times we've disagreed it feels nice to be on the same side for once lol!
That wraps up my top 10! And as I mentioned earlier, here's how my rankings would look if I included the 2 previous drafts of PROSPECTS with this group, what these players have done in the league so far has no affect on how I ranked them as prospects on this list. As you'll see, of the top 15, almost half of them are from this class, making this a semi talented, deep class but I don't see anyone who can challenge Barkley or Chubb at the top, though Dobbins is in the ball park. Taylor is the one I'm most worried about, ranking wise. He could easily prove me wrong because his main issue is ball security. If he had lets say, 1 fumble every 150 carries, so similar to Dobbins, he would jump up 6 spots and go to 4th on this list, that's how much I hate fumbling and the kind of impact ball security has on my overall grades.
#1 Saquon Barkley
#2 Nick Chubb
#3 J.K. Dobbins
#4 Derrius Guice
#5 Joshua Jacobs
#6 Sony Michel
#7 Kerryon Johnson
#8 D'andre Swift
#9 David Montgomery
#10 Jonathan Taylor
#11 A.J Dillon
#12 Zach Moss
#13 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
#14 Damien Harris
#15 Cam Akers
#16 Rodney Anderson
#17 Alexander Mattison
#18 Eno Benjamin
#19 Joshua Kelley
#20 Rocye Freeman
#21 Justin Jackson
#22 Ronald Jones II
#23 Rashaad Penny
#24 Ke'shawn Vaughn
#25 Darrell Henderson
Thanks for reading!
-NOTEIt's tough to get too excited about RB's knowing the Vikings don't really need one but if you play fantasy football or have a dynasty league it's still nice to know who these guys are. This is just my basic top 10 list but to give you something interesting I also plan to make a top 25 with this class and the previous 2 classes as a bonus!
#1. J.K. Dobbins - Dobbins really impressed me at Ohio State. He made it his mission to break Eddie George's single season rushing record (for ohio state) and did just that, rushing for 2003 yards. Keep in mind Ezekiel Elliot also went to Ohio State and his best year went for 1,878 rushing yards. I love that kind of determination and goal setting, it tells me a player is willing to bust his a$$ to improve and get better and make something like that happen. Of course he also has the TALENT to get it done too.
Dobbins NFL comparison for me would be Ray Rice with small flashes of Ladanian Tomlinson. Dobbins has excellent Vision, quickness, feet, and short area burst that allows him to deflect / redirect the worst a defender has to offer and stay on his feet to force another tackler to get him down.
If you remember my rankings from 2018, I'm a big proponent of ball security. Dobbins touched the ball 796 times with 5 fumbles, a rate of 1 fumble every 159 carries.
Dobbins could improve in pass blocking and had some concentration drops as a receiver.
#2 D'eandre Swift - Swift is a finesse back with power compared to a power back with finesse if that makes any sense. I've seen Swift out right juke guys who should have a clean shot at him and not even lay a finger on him and other times he can bust through a reach and usually doesn't go down to weaker arm tackles. He's had a couple plays where he jukes a guy, makes 2 defenders run into each other, reverses field, picks up a big gain and I'm like "wow, I haven't seen anyone do that since Barry Sanders!" and before anyone freaks out that I've already mentioned LT and Barry Sanders two prospects in, I'm not saying these guys are the second coming of those players, just that at times, there are flashes of similarity. Barry was Barry cause he could do crazy stuff all the time.
Swift has good hands and should be a potent weapon in the passing game.
Swift isn't the most elite athlete as he did post pretty poor numbers at the combine in some of the drills like a 7.12 3-cone and I did see him get caught from behind more than a guy like Jonathon Taylor. With that said, he doesn't look like a bad athlete on film and I put much more weight on the tape.
Swift touched the ball 515 times, fumbling 7 times for a rate of 1 fumble every 73 carries, about twice as often as Dobbins.
#3 Jonathon Taylor - Taylor may be the best pure runner in this class. His NFL comparison to me is easily Derrick Henry. Taylor is a load to bring down with great power and like Henry he has enough speed to breakaway for long TD's. Taylor didn't catch the ball much at Wisconsin but he did look decent in some of the 26 receptions he had his senior year.
I have two big concerns about Taylor as a prospect. Firstly, I noticed he wasn't always willing to put his body on the line as a blocker. He's this physical beast of a RB but it didn't really translate to his blocking. I've seen talented backs ride the pine before for being poor blockers or having blocking issues and while Taylor is too talented to be benched, he could be limited to a two down role.
Secondly, Taylor had 926 carries and fumbled 18 times for a rate of 1 fumble every 51 carries. This is another reason why I compare him to Derrick Henry, Henry lead the NFL in fumbles not including QB's. Part of it is these powerful runners tend to fight hard for extra yards but in doing so invite multiple tacklers to tie them up and go after the ball. Our very own Adrian Peterson also suffered from this problem and despite having the strongest hand shake on planet earth it didn't really matter. Bottom line, Taylor needs to improve his ball security and if he does, he has more than a fighting chance to be the top back from this class.
#4 A.J. Dillon - I did not expect to like Dillon as much as I do. His NFL comparison would be Legarette Blount and for the second time already this top 10, a little bit of Derrick Henry. Disagreeing with Dan a bit here, I actually thought Dillon had good vision and diagnosed plays pretty well as they unfolded. Rarely did I see him miss holes or leave yards on the table. Dillon has good footwork for a back this big, it doesn't look like he's plodding out there and while he obviously won't be making cuts like Swift can he's surprisingly slippery.
Dillon isn't as versatile as the first 3 runners on my list. He rarely had success on outside zone runs and struggles to go East / West and then transition to North and South. He does a lot better between the tackles in either Inside zone looks or power / gap runs where he can set up his blocks and get North / South quickly and an offensive coordinator would be wise to play to those strengths. With that said, Dillon was able to get the edge on plays that start inside, force the line backers or safeties to commit to those gaps, and THEN bounce it out after everyone gets sucked up which tells me he isn't as slow as one might think.
Dillon's blocking is a plus and I saw him make some well executed cut blocks on his film. As a receiver, I'll say the same thing I said about Taylor, he didn't do it a lot but I don't think he's a lost cause running traditional check down type routes out of the backfield.
In 845 carries Dillon had 8 fumbles for a rate of 1 fumble every 105 attempts.
#5 Zack Moss - Moss is like the little engine that could, not because he's small, he isn't, but in the sense that even though he isn't an elite athlete or really even a good athlete, he has solid technique and grinds out positive plays consistently and I find myself rooting for him. His NFL comparison is tough, I'd have to go back some and say maybe Ricky Williams. Moss plays like an old school back. He may not fit perfectly in this league anymore but I still like him to carve out a productive role in the NFL.
Moss has a fairly lengthy injury history that could work against him when it comes to teams boards, combined with a very poor 40 yard dash and it's possible Moss may be drafted far lower than the guys around him on my list so this will be something to keep an eye on draft day. He has the skills of a second or third rounder including strong blocking and receiving so I think if someone gives him a chance he will prove himself over time.
Moss had 778 career touches with 8 fumbles, for a rate of 1 fumble every 97 or so touches but in his final year Moss only had 1 fumble while carrying 263 times so it's possible he has improved his ball security which would be a nice bonus at this point.
#6 Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Speaking of the little engine that could... I love the 6-4 270 quote from one of his coaches and for those of you who don't know, CEH is actually 5-7, 207 but he's such a beast on the field and everyone thought he was too small as a freshman, 6-4 270 is kind of fitting!
All jokes aside, CEH's NFL comparison for me would be Devonta Freeman if you subtract some of the between the tackles capability Freeman can pull off but with better receiving skills. Freeman's listed at 5-8, 209 so CEH is in the ball park as far as size goes. I think CEH would thrive in a spread offense and at the very least should have a James White / Tarik Cohen kind of roll in the NFL but I think he has more potential as a runner than either of those two as well.
CEH had 2 fumbles in his entire career of 480 attempts, making the math pretty easy to do on this one, 1 fumble every 240 touches, the best in the class.
#7 Cam Akers - Aker's is kind of the opposite of Zach Moss, he has all the tools and physical traits to be an elite back but he struggles on the technical side of things from the film I watched. His NFL comparison for me is Marshawn Lynch, though at #7 I clearly don't think he's anywhere near Lynch's skill as of right now. In other words, Akers for me is a bit of a project but his upside is high enough that if he puts it all together, he could rival Dobbins, Taylor, and Swift in the end.
Often times on film I noticed Akers sees the cut back lane or see's a hole open but his body isn't able to cash in with sloppy footwork and sometimes even running into his own O-lineman. I think Akers would struggle in inside or outside zone where the back has to process multiple lanes, leverage, and diagnose the play as it unfolds and is a better fit for a gap / power scheme where pre-snap you know where the O-line is trying to create a hole and you have that one read and go.
With that said, Akers' O-line was terrible and it's possible I'm being too hard on him. FSU ran a lot of 10 personnel which is one back, no Tight end (or full back) and that's not the best fit for Aker's game so I admit there is a bit of a square peg / round hole situation going on. If a team like Tampa Bay takes Akers, who run a decent amount of gap, Akers could thrive right away and prove me wrong.
Akers had 656 touches and fumbled 10 times for a rate of 1 fumble every 65 touches, not quite as bad as Taylor but still near the bottom of this top 10.
#8 Eno Benjamin - Benjamin's NFL comparison would be Lesean Mccoy and given Benjamin's 6.97 three cone drill (2nd overall) and 4.25 second 20 shuttle (7th overall) the testing matches the film. He's a similar prospect to Clyde Edwards Helaire but CEH is the better receiver and provides a safer floor. If the Vikings were to move on from Cook eventually, Benjamin could be a solid option on the cheap to pair with Mattison.
Benjamin told the media that his two greatest points of emphasis going forward as a pro will be ball security and pass protection which is a good sign he knows they are weak points of his game. The Ball security is really interesting because before 2019 he had 1 fumble in 329 touches, then went on to fumble 6 times in 2019 for a total of 7 in 664 touches. That took him from absolutely elite ball security to 1 fumble every 94 touches which still isn't awful overall but for 2019 specifically it put him at 1 fumble every 55 touches, almost the worst on my list.
#9 Joshua Kelley - Kelley's NFL comparison would be Terrell Davis. Kelley is my favorite guy no one else is talking about. It wouldn't surprise me if he has a good rookie season and everyone else is like "where did this kid come from?". Kelley diagnoses defenses really well and has little wasted movement with his footwork. He uses that footwork to quickly change direction when a play breaks down and makes the most of angles and leverage.
Kelley is a strong pass catcher from what I saw and was used in more ways than just the typical check downs most backs are capable of.
Where kelley needs to get better fast is in pass blocking as it's something that could hold him back from getting enough playing time to show his stuff.
Kelley had 492 touches and 3 fumbles for 1 fumble every 164 touches.
#10 Ke'Shawn Vaughn - Vaughn's NFL comparison would be Cadillac Williams. Vaughn is a different player than Zach Moss but they kind of remind me of each other in the sense that I think Vaughn doesn't have much room left to grow but is a solid enough player right now that I think he could come in and on a short term basis help a team that needs RB help without investing draft capital in one of the big names, though ultimately a team would likely want to find more upside long term.
In 639 touches, Vaughn had 7 fumbles for a rate of 1 fumble per 91 touches.
Call me lazy if you want to but Danchat pretty much said everything I was going to say in his thread about Vaughn, I think he nailed it.
"Vaughn strikes me as of jack of all trades, master of none. His strength and motor are his best attributes, as he ended up with 3.7 average yards after contact. He’s got average speed for a 5’9” 205 lbs back, but not every elusive. He didn’t jump out on tape as his O-line hindered him from making many plays. He appears to be an average 3rd down back, as became more involved with the pass attack in 2019. It’s worth noting his 2018 season was much better than his 2019 one (7.9 YPC to 5.2), but I figure that’s likely due to his offensive line and Vanderbilt’s lack of a passing game.
"Vaughn is nothing special, but he doesn’t have any clear weaknesses. He’s an NFL caliber athlete who won’t go down without a fight, and if he gets put into a better offense, I wouldn’t be surprised if he breaks out as a low-end starter."
Well said my man, Dan! Hey for all the times we've disagreed it feels nice to be on the same side for once lol!
That wraps up my top 10! And as I mentioned earlier, here's how my rankings would look if I included the 2 previous drafts of PROSPECTS with this group, what these players have done in the league so far has no affect on how I ranked them as prospects on this list. As you'll see, of the top 15, almost half of them are from this class, making this a semi talented, deep class but I don't see anyone who can challenge Barkley or Chubb at the top, though Dobbins is in the ball park. Taylor is the one I'm most worried about, ranking wise. He could easily prove me wrong because his main issue is ball security. If he had lets say, 1 fumble every 150 carries, so similar to Dobbins, he would jump up 6 spots and go to 4th on this list, that's how much I hate fumbling and the kind of impact ball security has on my overall grades.
#1 Saquon Barkley
#2 Nick Chubb
#3 J.K. Dobbins
#4 Derrius Guice
#5 Joshua Jacobs
#6 Sony Michel
#7 Kerryon Johnson
#8 D'andre Swift
#9 David Montgomery
#10 Jonathan Taylor
#11 A.J Dillon
#12 Zach Moss
#13 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
#14 Damien Harris
#15 Cam Akers
#16 Rodney Anderson
#17 Alexander Mattison
#18 Eno Benjamin
#19 Joshua Kelley
#20 Rocye Freeman
#21 Justin Jackson
#22 Ronald Jones II
#23 Rashaad Penny
#24 Ke'shawn Vaughn
#25 Darrell Henderson
Thanks for reading!
... and neither is this Chris guy.