Post by Danchat on Apr 8, 2020 19:03:53 GMT -6
It’s time for my second annual HB Draft Class evaluation! I’ll be taking on 16 HBs, watching tape, crunching numbers, and evaluating others’ opinions on them to determine who I find to be the best. I’ve also provided a Highlight with very running back, open the spoiler to view the highlight. Let me know if this isn’t working for you.
Explaining the metrics: Athletic Metrics are made up of pSparq and RAS (Relative Athletic Scores). These compare every player to their NFL peers and determine how they match up based on size and drills like the 40 yard dash and shuttle run. PFF Grade is the grade Pro Football Focus gave the player for their 2019 season – it’s an indication of how well the player performed outside of his stats, as to try and remove how much the player was supported by his teammates.
Elusive Rating is calculated by PFF and measures how frequently the player broke out of a tackle. Contact Yards measures the average amount of yards a player gets after being contacted by a defender. Breakaway % is another PFF stat that measures how often the player broke off a run of 15 yards or more. Receiving Efficiency is Yards Per Route Run, which is a way to measure how much yardage the player got through the air compared to how many routes they ran.
Let’s get to the rankings!
#1 Jonathan Taylor – Wisconsin
Taylor has been a menace ever since his freshman year at Wisconsin, as he’s compiled 6174 yards in three seasons, averaging over 300 carries per season. Taylor looks the part of an old-fashioned bell cow who pummels through tacklers and dominates with simple up-the-middle runs. There wouldn’t be much to talk about if he was just a two down power back, but he’s got speed to burn as well. He’s got NFL speed coming in top 10% percentile of NFL HBs. At times Taylor reminds me of Adrian Peterson, at least comparing him athletically. His only true weakness was being just an average 3rd down back – he did get more work as a passer in his last year at Wisconsin, but he’ll need to work on catching and pass protection to solidify himself as a true 3 down back. Some may point to concerns with overuse, but I would worry more about that when he reaches his 5th/6th/7th year in the NFL into his late 20s.
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Summary
A true workhorse of a running back, Taylor’s type might be rather rare in the NFL at this point, but his ability to power through defenders with his sheer strength and also be able to outrun LBs with his speed makes him a complete back as a runner. It’s unclear whether he will work on 3rd downs, but I think his natural ability to lead him to becoming a top 10 HB in the NFL.
#2 D’Andre Swift - Georgia
D’Andre has a great football surname that describes his ability well – he’s a blazing fast back who relies on agility and making cuts that break defenders’ ankles. While he had the help of a NFL-caliber O-line at Georgia, I noticed Swift displayed great vision and found holes that other HBs may not have discovered. He did not generate many broken tackles, but from what I saw he was still very dangerous in the open field. He’s got nice hands and was a sizable factor in Georgia’s passing game. He looked great as a pass protector. Swift won’t be much of a power back, but he’s not bad and will push the pile for more yards.
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Summary
Swift the right fit for a 3 down back in the modern NFL. He’s got speed to burn, is a strong receiver and pass protector in the backfield and runs with great vision and agility. He may not work as a power back and can be rather easy to tackle, but defenders will have to reach him first. My analytics may appear to say that Swift isn’t quite that good, but the tape and draft scouts suggest otherwise.
#3 Zach Moss – Utah
Moss has one of the fullest graphs when it comes to my metrics, but one sticks out like a sore thumb – Moss ran a 4.65 ’40 and also had a poor shuttle time. This doesn’t stop me from liking Moss – last year’s Montgomery and Singletary tested poorly athletically – and basically everything else in Moss’ profile makes me think he will work in the NFL. Moss’ speed is lacking on tape, but he makes up for this with being incredibly agile. Not only did he have the best broken tackle rate, but Moss also fights and fights whenever he encounters tackles. Moss was also a decent receiver out of the backfield, and would be ideal for handling screens.
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Summary
Outside of the athletic testing, Moss rates as the best HB in the class. While his subpar top speed will limit his potential, he’s still a back capable of playing all 3 downs and will be one of the hardest guys to tackle in the NFL. Adding his ability to break long runs and fill the role of a receiving back, Moss should slot in as some team’s #1 HB.
#4 J. K. Dobbins – Ohio State
(note that the athletic metrics are my projections, not based on actual numbers)
Dobbins is coming off a massive 2019 campaign where he ran for 2003 yards and ran behind a stout Ohio State O-line. Dobbins brings both speed and power to the table. We don’t have his athletic measurements, but he’s certainly an above average athlete. Either way, Dobbins had a knack for tearing off long runs and running through defenders without losing any speed. He showed great vision and made the most of some big holes that were blocked for him. What separates him from Swift and Moss are his receiving skills – he dropped 2 easy passes on tape and was honestly a terrible pass protector.
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Summary
Dobbins has been a workhorse for the Buckeyes offense for years now, and he brings a great combo of speed and power to the table. While he rates low on breaking tackles, he makes up for this for having a tendency to fight through contact, which isn’t typical for a speedy back. He may not be a fit for 3rd downs with his poor pass protection, but he does have the hands for the job. Dobbins should end up as a starter, but possibly not in his first year.
#5 Cam Akers – Florida State
Akers is a speedy back who has been Florida State’s lead HB for 3 seasons, but never quite had a breakout season. I found that part of this was due to a very poor O-line, which was quite obvious as I was watching film. Akers’ breakaway % likely would have been significantly higher if he had anywhere to run. I did note that Akers was “not all that scary in the open field”. I did see some strong runs from Akers, and he was surprisingly good powering through on short yardage situations. He’s a strong receiver out of the backfield, and I noticed no problems in pass protection.
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Summary
I unfortunately couldn’t glean too much watching Akers’ tape due to a very poor O-line, but Akers profiles as a back who brings top tier speed and is also a capable tackle breaker. Add to that his 3rd down ability, and that gives him a solid chance of breaking out behind a real O-line in the NFL.
#6 Clyde Edwards-Helaire – LSU
Only a one year starter at LSU, Edwards-Helaire exploded alongside Joe Burrow as he had a phenomenal year with over 1400 yards rushing and 450 receiving. Compared to the rest of the guys on this list, CEH has the best receiving ability. Burrow would frequently check down to him, but CEH would make the play worth the effort as he’s hard to wrap up when he gets in space. He’s not quite as elusive when running the ball, though he brought value through getting extra yards on the end of runs. CEH won’t have the luxury of the dominant LSU offense supporting him in the NFL, but at worst he’s a great 3rd down back.
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Summary
Disregard the below average Receiving Efficiency rating Edwards-Helaire has, as he’s a dangerous receiver when he gets space, and a capable runner with average speed and strength. His college sample size is on the smaller side and he was boosted by having an amazing OL/QB/WR group, but Edwards-Helaire should end up as an offensive weapon in the NFL.
#7 Darius ‘Jet’ Anderson – TCU
This is probably the one surprise selection you may notice compared to other rankings. Darius Anderson jumped out on tape as he broke off some big runs and went to town on some defenses. While “Jet” may have only ran a 4.61 ’40, the rest of his measurements ranked highly and there’s no doubt he’s a quick runner. He usually made the most of what his O-line could block for him and even displayed some power, doing well in short yardage scenarios. What’s concerning is that many games Anderson would disappear from the box score as TCU usually stopped giving him carries against better defenses and never gave him more than 151 carries in a season, which meant his highest total in yards for a season was 823. He also wasn’t given many opportunities in the passing game.
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Summary
While Anderson may not have the resume of many of the other HBs, he lines up analytically and jumps off the tape with some great runs. I noticed less “easy” runs thanks to O-line blocking, and I think Anderson could jump out as a high-end rotational back or a low-end starter.
#8 A. J. Dillon – Boston College
Dillon looks like a fullback, but runs like a running back. The 247 pound runner is incredibly agile for his size, and is as tough as bricks. Defenders can’t take him down with an arm tackle and usually need to pile up on him just to get him down. The best way to even get him down is to stop him before he builds up speed. There aren’t many of Dillon’s type currently in the NFL, as he brings almost zero receiving ability out of the backfield. He also lacks the agility that about every other HB in this class has. Having a good O-line will be a necessity for him. I did notice that Dillon had a tendency to make poor cuts and didn’t have the best vision compared to the others.
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Summary
Dillon is a unique prospect who may be better suited to be a fullback in the NFL, but he has the speed to go up against NFL caliber players. Two down HBs are rare these days and Dillon may fall due to being a niche back, but he’s going to fill that niche very well. He’s your guy on 3rd and 1, and he’ll be a quality run or pass blocker if you ask him to do that too.
#9 Darrynton Evans – Appalachian State
Evans is the epitome of a home-run HB. He runs a 4.41 and he uses his speed to get by defenders. He won’t do much else as he isn’t going to break tackles and isn’t very good at running through contact. But if his offensive line gets him a block, he’ll shoot right through it. He will need to work on his receiving skills as Appalachian State rarely used him in the receiving game. With his small stature, he might be a liability as a pass blocker.
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Summary
Evans does one thing really well – he’s super fast, and will make the most of the blocking he gets. He’ll need to work on his 3rd down skills if he wants to be more than a rotational back. I imagine he could end up as a gunner on special teams. Evans should find himself picked on Day 3, likely around the 5th round.
#10 Ke’Shawn Vaughn – Vanderbilt
Vaughn strikes me as of jack of all trades, master of none. His strength and motor are his best attributes, as he ended up with 3.7 average yards after contact. He’s got average speed for a 5’9” 205 lbs back, but not every elusive. He didn’t jump out on tape as his O-line hindered him from making many plays. He appears to be an average 3rd down back, as became more involved with the pass attack in 2019. It’s worth noting his 2018 season was much better than his 2019 one (7.9 YPC to 5.2), but I figure that’s likely due to his offensive line and Vanderbilt’s lack of a passing game.
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Summary
Vaughn is nothing special, but he doesn’t have any clear weaknesses. He’s an NFL caliber athlete who won’t go down without a fight, and if he gets put into a better offense, I wouldn’t be surprised if he breaks out as a low-end starter.
#11 J. J. Taylor – Arizona
There’s not many NFL players who are as short as J. J., who comes in at 5’5”! Even shorter than Darren Sproles, Taylor is a quick runner who is certainly faster than his 4.61 ’40. I was impressed with his tape as he has great acceleration and agility – he changes speeds and can turn directions faster than most in these rankings. He was able to slip by LBs in coverage and showed great ability as a receiving back. As you can probably guess, he isn’t a very good up-the-middle and struggles to fight for yardage once hit. He’s not going to work as a pass protector in the backfield.
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Summary
Taylor isn’t going to end up as a 3 down back, but I think he could end up like Tarik Cohen or lesser version of Darren Sproles. Taylor can be hard to track down in the open field, and if used properly as a receiver, he could end up being an effective offensive weapon.
#12 Raymond Calais - Louisiana
Calais (pronounced ca-lay) is almost the exact same athlete as Darrynton Evans, as their combine numbers were nearly identical. Calais is about 3 inches shorter and 15 less pounds, and didn’t quite have the same success Evans did. Calais was never more than the #2 option at Lousiana, but averaged a whopping 9.3 YPC in his junior year and 7.6 in his senior year. On tape (what little I could find), Calais has explosive speed and had several long TD runs. His O-line dominated and left him some pretty wide holes. Outside of that there isn’t much else to say, given that he rarely broke any tackles and wasn’t even used on passing downs. He did have a decent tendency to fight for extra yardage, though.
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Summary
Calais is a one-trick pony who would do well to become a rotational back. I saw someone compare him to Raheem Mostert, and that sounds right – a very speedy back who gets what the O-line will block for him, and not much more. He probably won’t end up as a receiving back since he had zero usage as one in college. He could make for a gunner on special teams.
#13 Eno Benjamin – Arizona St.
Benjamin broke out in 2018 with 1905 yards from scrimmage, but regressed in his junior season with just 1430 in only 40 less touches. I didn’t see much on tape from Eno, as I noted that he consistently had nowhere to run. He had streaky elusivity – some drives he would break several tackles, and others he wouldn’t make any plays in space. He consistently came short on short yardage scenarios. He will be at home as a receiving back, as he caught 82 passes in his collegiate career and broke 15 tackles on his 2019 receptions. I also saw him drop a few passes, however.
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Summary
You can probably tell I’m not all that high on Benjamin, but perhaps I should focus more on his terrific 2018 campaign and ignore his Receiving Efficiency score he has. Benjamin is a decent athlete who can be a tough runner despite being a smaller back. He should start out as a passing down back and work on earning enough respect to get running down reps.
#14 Lamical Perine – Florida
One thing that jumped out to me on tape was that Perine is a solid receiver. Florida used him at WR at times and he had very soft hands. That was about it, as Perine spent most of his time as a part-time back who would get 10-14 carries a game. Sometimes Florida would just stop handing him the ball – in 3 straight games Perine handled 4 carries a game despite being the starter! Perine just isn’t anything special on the ground, and when he had room to run, he didn’t do very much with it. He’s also a below average athlete, which makes him rather unappealing as a prospect. He is a tough runner and I noted that he runs with “high effort”, but he’s not all that exciting of a running back in my opinion.
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Summary
Perine is about on the same level as Benjamin to me – both are fine athletes who didn’t wow me on tape. HBs on the slower end usually don’t end up as a receiving backs, so Perine is a bit of an odd ball. He’s a fine back to run the ball up the middle, but I simply don’t see enough upside in him to warrant another more than a late pick.
#15 Joshua Kelley - UCLA
A full-time starter at UCLA, Kelley ran for over 2300 yards in his two year career after spending two years at UC Davis and spending a redshirt year to transfer. He’s a slightly above average athlete whose primary strength is straight-line speed. He didn’t get the chance to use that much in the tape I watched, as he rarely got into open space. Kelley is a stiff runner who doesn’t get shifty and fails to break tackles, as the graph above indicates. He was barely a factor in the passing game. He also rarely fumbled the ball.
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Summary
As my metrics clearly show, Kelley is a low-tier prospect. He doesn’t quite have the speed that Evans and Calais have, and rarely broke any big plays to be considered a home run threat. With little power and a small sample size for his receiving skillset, Kelley will need to improve his skills if he wants to be more than a third string HB on the fringe of an NFL roster.
#16 Anthony McFarland – Maryland
McFarland left school after his redshirt sophomore year, which is something top prospects do, but he was coming off a rather poor season. He topped 1000 yards in his freshman season, but ran for just 614 yards on 114 carries this past year. While his athletic metrics appear to be low, he ran a very fast 4.44 ’40 and mostly flunked the jumping exercises, which isn’t very important to me. On tape, McFarland showed some burst and had a good combination of power and speed. I noted that he needed a running lane to build up speed, but he was hard to stop once he got going. His 2018 tape was a lot more impressive, sporting several explosive plays. He needed to get more reps in the passing game, as I think he has the skillset for it, but I can’t say for sure with such a small sample size.
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Summary
McFarland shows flashes of being capable of being a lead back in the NFL, but a mediocre sophomore year followed by the odd decision to commit to the NFL so early puzzles me. Add to that his smaller size at 5’ 8” and his limited experience in the passing game, and I see McFarland as a back who will require a year to two of development before being ready to crack the field.
Honorable Mentions (UDFAs worth going after)
Salvon Ahmed – Washington
Ahmed probably went to the draft a year early and should have stayed back to build his stock, as his one year as the primary starter was only decent at best. He tested rather poorly athletically is already a smaller running back. Finally, his elusivity rating came out very low.
Levante Bellamy – Western Michigan
Bellamy has ran for almost 2700 the past couple years, but the 5’9” 190 back missed most of the 2016 and 2017 seasons with injury and isn’t all that special, as he’s a one-trick pony who relies on his speed. Problem is, he runs a 4.50, which is quick, but not elite. For a guy who doesn’t break tackles and mostly gets what the O-line blocks, he will likely be a 6th / 7th rounder at best.
Javon Leake -Maryland
Leake has been stuck behind Anthony McFarland and never got a chance at the starting job, so it’s hard to project the numbers. However, he averaged over 7 yards a carry and was given a sky-high elusive rating from PFF. He could have made my list if he hadn’t flunked the combine with an poor 4.65 ’40 yard dash. The final nail in his coffin is that he fumbles too frequently and brought nothing to the passing game.
Michael Warren II – Cincinnati
Warren operated as Cincy’s feature back with almost 2600 yards the past two seasons and 46 catches. He didn’t test at the combine, but is likely a subpar athlete as he is more of a power back at 226 pounds. He did a great job of breaking tackles against weak competition, but his yards per carry leaves a lot to be desired. He could end up like a Gus Edwards / Rob Kelley type of back.
Patrick Taylor Jr. – Memphis
An injury kept Taylor out a good chunk of the 2019 season, which led to Kenny Gainwell getting 282 touches to Taylor’s 86. Already outshone by Darrell Henderson last season, Taylor is regarded as a quick runner, but tested below average with a mediocre ’40 and a bad shuttle time. He’s a major project at best.
Scottie Phillips – Ole Miss
Phillips is regarded as a back with a good combo of speed and power, but he completely and totally flunked the combine as he finished in the 6% by psparq’s standards and below the 30% mark for RAS. He’s not built strong enough to be a power back, and clearly doesn’t have the explosion to be a speedy one, and didn’t catch many passes, so I don’t think he fits any role in the NFL.
Rico Dowdle - South Carolina
A four year player, Dowdle just never could win the starting job for himself and hold it for very long. He’s a fine athlete with some burst, but he struggled behind a continually bad O-line that never let him live up to his potential.
When ranking these HBs, I used draft grades from Charlie Campbell and CBS Sports. Here are how they graded this HB class:
Finally, let’s compare everyone in this class by who has the best traits:
Alright, thank you for reading my article! I put a ton of time and effort into this and I’d love to hear from about what prospects intrigue you the most. Let me know who you will is underrated or overrated!
Notes: Gifs created with ScreenToGif, gifs compressed at www.iloveimg.com/, gifs uploaded at giphy.com/
Explaining the metrics: Athletic Metrics are made up of pSparq and RAS (Relative Athletic Scores). These compare every player to their NFL peers and determine how they match up based on size and drills like the 40 yard dash and shuttle run. PFF Grade is the grade Pro Football Focus gave the player for their 2019 season – it’s an indication of how well the player performed outside of his stats, as to try and remove how much the player was supported by his teammates.
Elusive Rating is calculated by PFF and measures how frequently the player broke out of a tackle. Contact Yards measures the average amount of yards a player gets after being contacted by a defender. Breakaway % is another PFF stat that measures how often the player broke off a run of 15 yards or more. Receiving Efficiency is Yards Per Route Run, which is a way to measure how much yardage the player got through the air compared to how many routes they ran.
Let’s get to the rankings!
#1 Jonathan Taylor – Wisconsin
Taylor has been a menace ever since his freshman year at Wisconsin, as he’s compiled 6174 yards in three seasons, averaging over 300 carries per season. Taylor looks the part of an old-fashioned bell cow who pummels through tacklers and dominates with simple up-the-middle runs. There wouldn’t be much to talk about if he was just a two down power back, but he’s got speed to burn as well. He’s got NFL speed coming in top 10% percentile of NFL HBs. At times Taylor reminds me of Adrian Peterson, at least comparing him athletically. His only true weakness was being just an average 3rd down back – he did get more work as a passer in his last year at Wisconsin, but he’ll need to work on catching and pass protection to solidify himself as a true 3 down back. Some may point to concerns with overuse, but I would worry more about that when he reaches his 5th/6th/7th year in the NFL into his late 20s.
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Summary
A true workhorse of a running back, Taylor’s type might be rather rare in the NFL at this point, but his ability to power through defenders with his sheer strength and also be able to outrun LBs with his speed makes him a complete back as a runner. It’s unclear whether he will work on 3rd downs, but I think his natural ability to lead him to becoming a top 10 HB in the NFL.
#2 D’Andre Swift - Georgia
D’Andre has a great football surname that describes his ability well – he’s a blazing fast back who relies on agility and making cuts that break defenders’ ankles. While he had the help of a NFL-caliber O-line at Georgia, I noticed Swift displayed great vision and found holes that other HBs may not have discovered. He did not generate many broken tackles, but from what I saw he was still very dangerous in the open field. He’s got nice hands and was a sizable factor in Georgia’s passing game. He looked great as a pass protector. Swift won’t be much of a power back, but he’s not bad and will push the pile for more yards.
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Summary
Swift the right fit for a 3 down back in the modern NFL. He’s got speed to burn, is a strong receiver and pass protector in the backfield and runs with great vision and agility. He may not work as a power back and can be rather easy to tackle, but defenders will have to reach him first. My analytics may appear to say that Swift isn’t quite that good, but the tape and draft scouts suggest otherwise.
#3 Zach Moss – Utah
Moss has one of the fullest graphs when it comes to my metrics, but one sticks out like a sore thumb – Moss ran a 4.65 ’40 and also had a poor shuttle time. This doesn’t stop me from liking Moss – last year’s Montgomery and Singletary tested poorly athletically – and basically everything else in Moss’ profile makes me think he will work in the NFL. Moss’ speed is lacking on tape, but he makes up for this with being incredibly agile. Not only did he have the best broken tackle rate, but Moss also fights and fights whenever he encounters tackles. Moss was also a decent receiver out of the backfield, and would be ideal for handling screens.
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Summary
Outside of the athletic testing, Moss rates as the best HB in the class. While his subpar top speed will limit his potential, he’s still a back capable of playing all 3 downs and will be one of the hardest guys to tackle in the NFL. Adding his ability to break long runs and fill the role of a receiving back, Moss should slot in as some team’s #1 HB.
#4 J. K. Dobbins – Ohio State
(note that the athletic metrics are my projections, not based on actual numbers)
Dobbins is coming off a massive 2019 campaign where he ran for 2003 yards and ran behind a stout Ohio State O-line. Dobbins brings both speed and power to the table. We don’t have his athletic measurements, but he’s certainly an above average athlete. Either way, Dobbins had a knack for tearing off long runs and running through defenders without losing any speed. He showed great vision and made the most of some big holes that were blocked for him. What separates him from Swift and Moss are his receiving skills – he dropped 2 easy passes on tape and was honestly a terrible pass protector.
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Summary
Dobbins has been a workhorse for the Buckeyes offense for years now, and he brings a great combo of speed and power to the table. While he rates low on breaking tackles, he makes up for this for having a tendency to fight through contact, which isn’t typical for a speedy back. He may not be a fit for 3rd downs with his poor pass protection, but he does have the hands for the job. Dobbins should end up as a starter, but possibly not in his first year.
#5 Cam Akers – Florida State
Akers is a speedy back who has been Florida State’s lead HB for 3 seasons, but never quite had a breakout season. I found that part of this was due to a very poor O-line, which was quite obvious as I was watching film. Akers’ breakaway % likely would have been significantly higher if he had anywhere to run. I did note that Akers was “not all that scary in the open field”. I did see some strong runs from Akers, and he was surprisingly good powering through on short yardage situations. He’s a strong receiver out of the backfield, and I noticed no problems in pass protection.
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Summary
I unfortunately couldn’t glean too much watching Akers’ tape due to a very poor O-line, but Akers profiles as a back who brings top tier speed and is also a capable tackle breaker. Add to that his 3rd down ability, and that gives him a solid chance of breaking out behind a real O-line in the NFL.
#6 Clyde Edwards-Helaire – LSU
Only a one year starter at LSU, Edwards-Helaire exploded alongside Joe Burrow as he had a phenomenal year with over 1400 yards rushing and 450 receiving. Compared to the rest of the guys on this list, CEH has the best receiving ability. Burrow would frequently check down to him, but CEH would make the play worth the effort as he’s hard to wrap up when he gets in space. He’s not quite as elusive when running the ball, though he brought value through getting extra yards on the end of runs. CEH won’t have the luxury of the dominant LSU offense supporting him in the NFL, but at worst he’s a great 3rd down back.
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Summary
Disregard the below average Receiving Efficiency rating Edwards-Helaire has, as he’s a dangerous receiver when he gets space, and a capable runner with average speed and strength. His college sample size is on the smaller side and he was boosted by having an amazing OL/QB/WR group, but Edwards-Helaire should end up as an offensive weapon in the NFL.
#7 Darius ‘Jet’ Anderson – TCU
This is probably the one surprise selection you may notice compared to other rankings. Darius Anderson jumped out on tape as he broke off some big runs and went to town on some defenses. While “Jet” may have only ran a 4.61 ’40, the rest of his measurements ranked highly and there’s no doubt he’s a quick runner. He usually made the most of what his O-line could block for him and even displayed some power, doing well in short yardage scenarios. What’s concerning is that many games Anderson would disappear from the box score as TCU usually stopped giving him carries against better defenses and never gave him more than 151 carries in a season, which meant his highest total in yards for a season was 823. He also wasn’t given many opportunities in the passing game.
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Summary
While Anderson may not have the resume of many of the other HBs, he lines up analytically and jumps off the tape with some great runs. I noticed less “easy” runs thanks to O-line blocking, and I think Anderson could jump out as a high-end rotational back or a low-end starter.
#8 A. J. Dillon – Boston College
Dillon looks like a fullback, but runs like a running back. The 247 pound runner is incredibly agile for his size, and is as tough as bricks. Defenders can’t take him down with an arm tackle and usually need to pile up on him just to get him down. The best way to even get him down is to stop him before he builds up speed. There aren’t many of Dillon’s type currently in the NFL, as he brings almost zero receiving ability out of the backfield. He also lacks the agility that about every other HB in this class has. Having a good O-line will be a necessity for him. I did notice that Dillon had a tendency to make poor cuts and didn’t have the best vision compared to the others.
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Summary
Dillon is a unique prospect who may be better suited to be a fullback in the NFL, but he has the speed to go up against NFL caliber players. Two down HBs are rare these days and Dillon may fall due to being a niche back, but he’s going to fill that niche very well. He’s your guy on 3rd and 1, and he’ll be a quality run or pass blocker if you ask him to do that too.
#9 Darrynton Evans – Appalachian State
Evans is the epitome of a home-run HB. He runs a 4.41 and he uses his speed to get by defenders. He won’t do much else as he isn’t going to break tackles and isn’t very good at running through contact. But if his offensive line gets him a block, he’ll shoot right through it. He will need to work on his receiving skills as Appalachian State rarely used him in the receiving game. With his small stature, he might be a liability as a pass blocker.
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Summary
Evans does one thing really well – he’s super fast, and will make the most of the blocking he gets. He’ll need to work on his 3rd down skills if he wants to be more than a rotational back. I imagine he could end up as a gunner on special teams. Evans should find himself picked on Day 3, likely around the 5th round.
#10 Ke’Shawn Vaughn – Vanderbilt
Vaughn strikes me as of jack of all trades, master of none. His strength and motor are his best attributes, as he ended up with 3.7 average yards after contact. He’s got average speed for a 5’9” 205 lbs back, but not every elusive. He didn’t jump out on tape as his O-line hindered him from making many plays. He appears to be an average 3rd down back, as became more involved with the pass attack in 2019. It’s worth noting his 2018 season was much better than his 2019 one (7.9 YPC to 5.2), but I figure that’s likely due to his offensive line and Vanderbilt’s lack of a passing game.
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Summary
Vaughn is nothing special, but he doesn’t have any clear weaknesses. He’s an NFL caliber athlete who won’t go down without a fight, and if he gets put into a better offense, I wouldn’t be surprised if he breaks out as a low-end starter.
#11 J. J. Taylor – Arizona
There’s not many NFL players who are as short as J. J., who comes in at 5’5”! Even shorter than Darren Sproles, Taylor is a quick runner who is certainly faster than his 4.61 ’40. I was impressed with his tape as he has great acceleration and agility – he changes speeds and can turn directions faster than most in these rankings. He was able to slip by LBs in coverage and showed great ability as a receiving back. As you can probably guess, he isn’t a very good up-the-middle and struggles to fight for yardage once hit. He’s not going to work as a pass protector in the backfield.
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Summary
Taylor isn’t going to end up as a 3 down back, but I think he could end up like Tarik Cohen or lesser version of Darren Sproles. Taylor can be hard to track down in the open field, and if used properly as a receiver, he could end up being an effective offensive weapon.
#12 Raymond Calais - Louisiana
Calais (pronounced ca-lay) is almost the exact same athlete as Darrynton Evans, as their combine numbers were nearly identical. Calais is about 3 inches shorter and 15 less pounds, and didn’t quite have the same success Evans did. Calais was never more than the #2 option at Lousiana, but averaged a whopping 9.3 YPC in his junior year and 7.6 in his senior year. On tape (what little I could find), Calais has explosive speed and had several long TD runs. His O-line dominated and left him some pretty wide holes. Outside of that there isn’t much else to say, given that he rarely broke any tackles and wasn’t even used on passing downs. He did have a decent tendency to fight for extra yardage, though.
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Calais is a one-trick pony who would do well to become a rotational back. I saw someone compare him to Raheem Mostert, and that sounds right – a very speedy back who gets what the O-line will block for him, and not much more. He probably won’t end up as a receiving back since he had zero usage as one in college. He could make for a gunner on special teams.
#13 Eno Benjamin – Arizona St.
Benjamin broke out in 2018 with 1905 yards from scrimmage, but regressed in his junior season with just 1430 in only 40 less touches. I didn’t see much on tape from Eno, as I noted that he consistently had nowhere to run. He had streaky elusivity – some drives he would break several tackles, and others he wouldn’t make any plays in space. He consistently came short on short yardage scenarios. He will be at home as a receiving back, as he caught 82 passes in his collegiate career and broke 15 tackles on his 2019 receptions. I also saw him drop a few passes, however.
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You can probably tell I’m not all that high on Benjamin, but perhaps I should focus more on his terrific 2018 campaign and ignore his Receiving Efficiency score he has. Benjamin is a decent athlete who can be a tough runner despite being a smaller back. He should start out as a passing down back and work on earning enough respect to get running down reps.
#14 Lamical Perine – Florida
One thing that jumped out to me on tape was that Perine is a solid receiver. Florida used him at WR at times and he had very soft hands. That was about it, as Perine spent most of his time as a part-time back who would get 10-14 carries a game. Sometimes Florida would just stop handing him the ball – in 3 straight games Perine handled 4 carries a game despite being the starter! Perine just isn’t anything special on the ground, and when he had room to run, he didn’t do very much with it. He’s also a below average athlete, which makes him rather unappealing as a prospect. He is a tough runner and I noted that he runs with “high effort”, but he’s not all that exciting of a running back in my opinion.
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Perine is about on the same level as Benjamin to me – both are fine athletes who didn’t wow me on tape. HBs on the slower end usually don’t end up as a receiving backs, so Perine is a bit of an odd ball. He’s a fine back to run the ball up the middle, but I simply don’t see enough upside in him to warrant another more than a late pick.
#15 Joshua Kelley - UCLA
A full-time starter at UCLA, Kelley ran for over 2300 yards in his two year career after spending two years at UC Davis and spending a redshirt year to transfer. He’s a slightly above average athlete whose primary strength is straight-line speed. He didn’t get the chance to use that much in the tape I watched, as he rarely got into open space. Kelley is a stiff runner who doesn’t get shifty and fails to break tackles, as the graph above indicates. He was barely a factor in the passing game. He also rarely fumbled the ball.
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As my metrics clearly show, Kelley is a low-tier prospect. He doesn’t quite have the speed that Evans and Calais have, and rarely broke any big plays to be considered a home run threat. With little power and a small sample size for his receiving skillset, Kelley will need to improve his skills if he wants to be more than a third string HB on the fringe of an NFL roster.
#16 Anthony McFarland – Maryland
McFarland left school after his redshirt sophomore year, which is something top prospects do, but he was coming off a rather poor season. He topped 1000 yards in his freshman season, but ran for just 614 yards on 114 carries this past year. While his athletic metrics appear to be low, he ran a very fast 4.44 ’40 and mostly flunked the jumping exercises, which isn’t very important to me. On tape, McFarland showed some burst and had a good combination of power and speed. I noted that he needed a running lane to build up speed, but he was hard to stop once he got going. His 2018 tape was a lot more impressive, sporting several explosive plays. He needed to get more reps in the passing game, as I think he has the skillset for it, but I can’t say for sure with such a small sample size.
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McFarland shows flashes of being capable of being a lead back in the NFL, but a mediocre sophomore year followed by the odd decision to commit to the NFL so early puzzles me. Add to that his smaller size at 5’ 8” and his limited experience in the passing game, and I see McFarland as a back who will require a year to two of development before being ready to crack the field.
Honorable Mentions (UDFAs worth going after)
Salvon Ahmed – Washington
Ahmed probably went to the draft a year early and should have stayed back to build his stock, as his one year as the primary starter was only decent at best. He tested rather poorly athletically is already a smaller running back. Finally, his elusivity rating came out very low.
Levante Bellamy – Western Michigan
Bellamy has ran for almost 2700 the past couple years, but the 5’9” 190 back missed most of the 2016 and 2017 seasons with injury and isn’t all that special, as he’s a one-trick pony who relies on his speed. Problem is, he runs a 4.50, which is quick, but not elite. For a guy who doesn’t break tackles and mostly gets what the O-line blocks, he will likely be a 6th / 7th rounder at best.
Javon Leake -Maryland
Leake has been stuck behind Anthony McFarland and never got a chance at the starting job, so it’s hard to project the numbers. However, he averaged over 7 yards a carry and was given a sky-high elusive rating from PFF. He could have made my list if he hadn’t flunked the combine with an poor 4.65 ’40 yard dash. The final nail in his coffin is that he fumbles too frequently and brought nothing to the passing game.
Michael Warren II – Cincinnati
Warren operated as Cincy’s feature back with almost 2600 yards the past two seasons and 46 catches. He didn’t test at the combine, but is likely a subpar athlete as he is more of a power back at 226 pounds. He did a great job of breaking tackles against weak competition, but his yards per carry leaves a lot to be desired. He could end up like a Gus Edwards / Rob Kelley type of back.
Patrick Taylor Jr. – Memphis
An injury kept Taylor out a good chunk of the 2019 season, which led to Kenny Gainwell getting 282 touches to Taylor’s 86. Already outshone by Darrell Henderson last season, Taylor is regarded as a quick runner, but tested below average with a mediocre ’40 and a bad shuttle time. He’s a major project at best.
Scottie Phillips – Ole Miss
Phillips is regarded as a back with a good combo of speed and power, but he completely and totally flunked the combine as he finished in the 6% by psparq’s standards and below the 30% mark for RAS. He’s not built strong enough to be a power back, and clearly doesn’t have the explosion to be a speedy one, and didn’t catch many passes, so I don’t think he fits any role in the NFL.
Rico Dowdle - South Carolina
A four year player, Dowdle just never could win the starting job for himself and hold it for very long. He’s a fine athlete with some burst, but he struggled behind a continually bad O-line that never let him live up to his potential.
When ranking these HBs, I used draft grades from Charlie Campbell and CBS Sports. Here are how they graded this HB class:
Finally, let’s compare everyone in this class by who has the best traits:
Alright, thank you for reading my article! I put a ton of time and effort into this and I’d love to hear from about what prospects intrigue you the most. Let me know who you will is underrated or overrated!
Notes: Gifs created with ScreenToGif, gifs compressed at www.iloveimg.com/, gifs uploaded at giphy.com/
... and neither is this Chris guy.