Mondry's 2020 Deep Dive WR rankings
Apr 5, 2020 14:14:00 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 1 more like this
Post by Mondry on Apr 5, 2020 14:14:00 GMT -6
Last year I did a top 10 with a few honorable mentions. This year I'll be doing a top 16 with bonus 6th and 7th round "sleepers". Because I'll be talking about more players it won't be as in depth as last year where I went over film with time stamps, instead I'll just write a few lines or (hopefully) a smallish paragraph and move on.
Another change this year is that I will be talking about these guys as if I was the GM of the Minnesota Vikings. That means I'll be considering fit with the team and where I'd be comfortable drafting each player with a pick range. For example, Ceedee Lamb pick #10-15 means I'd spend the 10th pick in the draft on him if I had it and I'd consider getting him with the 15th pick a total steal. Of course if Lamb fell to like pick #50 i'd still be interested, I'm just trying to show how I value these guys.
#1 - Ceedee Lamb Pick #10-15
Lamb to me is pretty easily the best WR prospect in this class. If you try to explain Lamb's game to someone you really can't do it with just one past or present NFL receiver because there is no direct comparison. I'd have to say, "well at times he reminds me of De'andre Hopkins when it comes to snatching the ball, fighting off defenders, and physicality but he can also move like a Percy Harvin or some other small, quick, agile receiver." There really isn't anyone like that in the NFL right now and that's the type of receiver you spend a top 15 pick on.
I'm not going to trade up to get Lamb on the Vikings but if he magically fell to our pick I'd have our choice turned in before Goodell could even say we're on the clock.
#2 Jerry Jeudy Pick #16-32
Last year, A.J. Brown was the most NFL ready WR and as it turns out, that was good enough to lead all rookies in receiving last year. Too bad I put him 3rd! If that holds true again, Jerry Jeudy should be that guy as I think he's the most NFL ready out of this bunch and oh look, I'm putting him 2nd! I can already see this one coming back to haunt me! Of course this years prospects are on a much higher level over all than last year and I just can't overlook the ceiling that Lamb has in our offense to put Jeudy higher than him.
Jeudy is no slouch by any means, he IS after all the best route runner in this class and he often gets enormous amounts of separation because of it. I just think Lamb will end up being a special WR. Jeudy could settle in as a guy who puts up 1,000 yards year in and year out which in most other WR classes would make you the top guy but this class isn't like most classes.
For the Vikings, I'd love to pick up Jeudy with #22 or #25. That'd basically be like adding another Thielen to the team, a solid guy that can get open, be reliable, and get the job done.
#3 Justin Jefferson Pick #20-#32
In 2018 Jefferson had 54 catches for 875 yards and 6 TD's, which isn't bad. In 2019, LSU implemented the Saints offense and changed Jefferson's role to the one Michael Thomas just put up 1,725 yards in. Jefferson became an absolute work horse out of the slot with 111 receptions, 1,540 yards, and 18 TD's.
When I watch Jefferson's 2019 film I see an eerie resemblance to Keenan Allen from the chargers, both in how they play and the roles they have as slot WR's. If a team is willing to dedicate their slot WR position to Jefferson he is absolutely worth a first round pick. Jefferson produced day in and day out against the best competition college football has to offer as THE GUY and they couldn't stop him. At times, he made Joe Burrow look better, though that's obviously a two way street.
If Jefferson falls to us, I'd be more than happy to feature him as our dedicated slot receiver as the next Keenan Allen / Michael Thomas with pick #22 or #25.
#4 Henry Ruggs Pick #20-32
With a 4.27 40 yard dash, Ruggs is obviously a burner. I don't think you can draft Ruggs with the intent to make him your bonafide #1 WR. At Alabama, Jerry Jeudy was essentially the #1 with Ruggs playing #2 and I think the team that drafts Ruggs should already have a #1 option on the team. With that said, I do think Ruggs is a substantially better overall WR than Will Fuller and fellow classmates Jalen Reagor and Brandon Aiyuk.
Ruggs can take the top off a defense and adds another element to an offense that's hard to find without being a one trick pony. If the defense is already worried about Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, Ruggs will get better match ups and more space to thrive in, making him a strong fit for our offense. Cousins has been able to hit speedster Aldrick Robinson well in the past and I think he'd love having Ruggs.
Due to the nature of this type of WR he's a little more boom or bust than the first 3 guys on this list but there's no denying the type of impact he can have which gets me interested a little over halfway through the first round and extremely interested in the second round.
#5 Denzel Mims Pick #20-32
Mims stood out to me watching the tape and then he confirmed what I was thinking with an extremely strong combine performance. I'm not one to put much stake in the combine but it is good for confirming or denying things you see on film.
Mims is 6'3 with length and ran a 4.39 40 so he's fast too. If you've ever watched Hopkins go at it with Jalen Ramsey when the Texans play the Jags, every route is like a moving boxing match down the field, Mims brings that same type of physicality to the table, he out right bully's DB's. That bullying transfers to the run game as well when he's blocking. Zimmer would like this guy a lot, it's cliche but "he's a football player".
Mims is a solid route runner and when you combine that with his size, length, and speed I just see it being really hard for defenders to be able to handle him one on one and if teams are forced to give him extra attention that will open things up for Thielen and our running game. I wouldn't mind taking Mims with either of our first rounders and I've given him the same pick range as Ruggs. They're very different receivers but I'd love either of them.
#6 Laviska Shenault Jr Pick #26-42
LSJ is a very intriguing prospect in my eyes. He's 6'0, 227 pounds and I think he has the potential to be what we had all hoped Cordarrelle Patterson would be. LSJ is not as physically gifted as Patterson but if you take some of the physical ability and shuffle it straight into actual WR skills you get LSJ and I think it's a pretty good trade off that could make for a very potent and productive WR.
I've seen flashes from LSJ with his open field running, his power, and ability to fight through contact that nearly rivals Patterson with the ball in his hands but again the difference is he can actually play a traditional WR role which means he'll be on the field as a normal part of the offense and not a guy who can only come on the field for scripted / gimmick plays.
In all honesty, the thing that keeps LSJ out of the top 5 for me is actually his injury history. He was an all purpose weapon at Colorado and he's got a thicker build so they also ran him between the tackles, in the red zone, in the wild cat, etc where he took more punishment than a WR is typically going to sustain. LSJ participated in the combine despite needing Abdominal surgery and his performance suffered for it some.
I'm taking a bit of a risk here with LSJ at #6 and with a pick range essentially late first and into the second round but if my team doctors say he's A-ok I'm happy to pull the trigger knowing we'll only play him at WR with the occasional jet sweep mixed in. If he slides into the 3rd round due to concerns around his injury's or skills I'd be even happier to get him there.
#7 Michael Pittman Jr Pick #33-64
I liked what I saw from Pittman while watching his film and he had a solid performance at the combine. I think his floor is reasonably safe as a big body'd possession receiver with enough athletic ability and upside to turn into something more at the next level.
Rudolph isn't getting any younger and Irv Smith Jr who will eventually replace Rudolph full time, isn't the biggest guy either so I think Pittman will have a lot of opportunity to carve out a nice role in our offense both as a bit of a deep threat and redzone guy.
#8 Bryan Edwards Pick #42-64
Edwards isn't quite as big as Pittman and unfortunately he broke his foot while training for the combine so we don't have his exact numbers but from what I've seen on film I think he would have improved his stock. Edwards' main problem is inconsistent hands / drops or he could have been higher on this list as I like his potential a lot, I just hate self inflicted wounds.
With that said, Edwards put together 4 solid years at SC, catching 71 balls in 2019, some of which were spectacular grabs so if he can improve on the mental lapses responsible for some of these drops he has a chance to right the ship so to speak.
#9 Devin Duvernay Pick #48-#96
Duvernay reminds me a bit of Debo Samuel from last year in that he's not really a super polished guy or a pristine route runner, he's just going to show up and take your lunch money. He's kind of like the WR version of the RB Doug Martin, who earned the nickname "Muscle Hamster", just freakishly strong for his size.
I could see Duvernay being used like a Danny Woodhead if WR doesn't work out for him but I'm betting it will.
#10 Jalen Reagor Pick #48-96
Reagor is the poor man's Henry Ruggs. They're both plenty fast and plenty dangerous but Ruggs is far more NFL ready and a more complete player at this point in their careers. With that said, I don't think Reagor is such a project that he's really far away from being good, there is a lot to like here, he just needs some coaching and time to polish his game. Same pick range as Duvernay who I like slightly more RIGHT NOW, but Reagor has a higher ceiling if he can get there.
#11 Chase Claypool Pick #72-100
I like Claypool in this range. He's a guy who isn't there yet but would be awesome when / if he does and who doesn't like a 6-4, 238 TE disguised as a WR? All in all I think the dude works hard and is the type to keep improving and honing his craft. A little more of a project than most seem to think, I'd be happy to pick him up in the 3rd and he'd be a steal in the 4th.
#12 Brandon Aiyuk Pick #72-100
Aiyuk played at JUCO to start his college career but transferred to Arizona state for his final two seasons. 2018 was a slow year for him with 33 receptions, 474 yards, and 3 TD's. Then N'keal Harry got drafted by the patriots and 2019 was all about Aiyuk. He finished the year with 65 receptions, 1,192 yards, and 8 TD's. Aiyuk is certainly on the rise, but I'm not willing to put him in my top 10 just yet as he has a lot to work on still. I didn't like how much he struggled with physical man coverage and had inconsistent hands due to poor technique just to name a couple issues.
All of these things can be worked on of course but with such a strong class I'm just finding guys I like more to put in front of him and I don't expect him to be available around when I'd want to pick him so I don't see Aiyuk becoming a Viking but you never know.
#13 Tee Higgins Pick #87-128
Between Higgins and Pittman, Pittman is the clear choice. Pittman's vertical jump of 36.5 smoked Higgins' 31.0 and Pittman's 4.14 20 yard shuttle bested Higgins' 4.53 and Pittman looks better / smoother on film to me even though these two are essentially the same size.
Higgins is more of a Hakeem Knicks. He might struggle to get separation like a treadwell but it probably won't matter when you can win contested balls routinely. Still, I worry about guys who struggle to get separation in college as it doesn't get any easier in the NFL and if he can't consistently win contested balls, he doesn't have much else to work with in his tool box. Asking him to come in and produce as a #1 WR would probably be a mistake. Lucky for us, we already have a #1 WR.
#14 Quintez Cephus Pick #97-128
I really want to put Cephus higher on this list but I tried that last year with Stanley Morgan JR and he never got a chance to show his stuff so I'm holding back from making too big of a splash here. This is our Diggs replacement.
#15 Van Jefferson Pick #97-128
Last year, I didn't give Terry Mcclaurin a whole lot of respect and that's who Van Jefferson reminds me of. Jefferson's not as fast, nor does he accelerate as well as Mcclaurin but he runs good routes and has awesome footwork off the line and in and out of his breaks.
Jefferson doesn't have the best hands, I noticed a number of drops where he tried to catch chest high level passes with an under hand technique where I'd much rather see him snatch those balls out of the air rather than let them come into his body. If we can coach some of these correctable negatives out of his game there's a shot he'd end up being a strong value here.
#16 K.J. Hamler #128-164
Who's got that Tyreek fever? Given this pick range, I guess not me! Look I like Hamler, but the dude is 5-8 and 178 pounds, that's 2 inches shorter than Tyreek and 7 pounds lighter! If you watch his highlight reel below I think the dude get's shaken up 4 times in 7 minutes worth of clips and that's his highlight tape! I'd be totally shocked if he makes it through a full NFL season in a major role.
There's only one Tyfreek but it seems like most are betting super small, fast guys are just going to be the norm now and I'm just not sure I believe in that trend just yet.
He'll be long gone before this pick range but I figured people might be wondering where he was at in my rankings so here you go. If he's taken in the first or second round as the next Tyreek Hill I'm calling BUST.
6th and 7th round flyers - guys I'd be itching to snatch up at the end of the draft if they slide.
Austin Mack - Dealt with injuries and wasn't able to pile up stats but the skills are there.
Antonio Gandly-Golden - Another guy I'd love to bring into training camp if the price is right.
Jauan Jennings - Tough, Physical, Blocker.
Tyler Johnson - local kid, lots of skills, athleticism likely holds him back, could have silenced critics with a good combine / pro day but chose not to run many of the drills, is he scared of the results?
Gabriel Davis
Lynn Bowden, Jr
Antonio Gibson
Aaron Parker
Hope you all enjoy! Let me know what you agree and disagree with! Time to start working on the RB's and QB's!
Another change this year is that I will be talking about these guys as if I was the GM of the Minnesota Vikings. That means I'll be considering fit with the team and where I'd be comfortable drafting each player with a pick range. For example, Ceedee Lamb pick #10-15 means I'd spend the 10th pick in the draft on him if I had it and I'd consider getting him with the 15th pick a total steal. Of course if Lamb fell to like pick #50 i'd still be interested, I'm just trying to show how I value these guys.
#1 - Ceedee Lamb Pick #10-15
Lamb to me is pretty easily the best WR prospect in this class. If you try to explain Lamb's game to someone you really can't do it with just one past or present NFL receiver because there is no direct comparison. I'd have to say, "well at times he reminds me of De'andre Hopkins when it comes to snatching the ball, fighting off defenders, and physicality but he can also move like a Percy Harvin or some other small, quick, agile receiver." There really isn't anyone like that in the NFL right now and that's the type of receiver you spend a top 15 pick on.
I'm not going to trade up to get Lamb on the Vikings but if he magically fell to our pick I'd have our choice turned in before Goodell could even say we're on the clock.
#2 Jerry Jeudy Pick #16-32
Last year, A.J. Brown was the most NFL ready WR and as it turns out, that was good enough to lead all rookies in receiving last year. Too bad I put him 3rd! If that holds true again, Jerry Jeudy should be that guy as I think he's the most NFL ready out of this bunch and oh look, I'm putting him 2nd! I can already see this one coming back to haunt me! Of course this years prospects are on a much higher level over all than last year and I just can't overlook the ceiling that Lamb has in our offense to put Jeudy higher than him.
Jeudy is no slouch by any means, he IS after all the best route runner in this class and he often gets enormous amounts of separation because of it. I just think Lamb will end up being a special WR. Jeudy could settle in as a guy who puts up 1,000 yards year in and year out which in most other WR classes would make you the top guy but this class isn't like most classes.
For the Vikings, I'd love to pick up Jeudy with #22 or #25. That'd basically be like adding another Thielen to the team, a solid guy that can get open, be reliable, and get the job done.
#3 Justin Jefferson Pick #20-#32
In 2018 Jefferson had 54 catches for 875 yards and 6 TD's, which isn't bad. In 2019, LSU implemented the Saints offense and changed Jefferson's role to the one Michael Thomas just put up 1,725 yards in. Jefferson became an absolute work horse out of the slot with 111 receptions, 1,540 yards, and 18 TD's.
When I watch Jefferson's 2019 film I see an eerie resemblance to Keenan Allen from the chargers, both in how they play and the roles they have as slot WR's. If a team is willing to dedicate their slot WR position to Jefferson he is absolutely worth a first round pick. Jefferson produced day in and day out against the best competition college football has to offer as THE GUY and they couldn't stop him. At times, he made Joe Burrow look better, though that's obviously a two way street.
If Jefferson falls to us, I'd be more than happy to feature him as our dedicated slot receiver as the next Keenan Allen / Michael Thomas with pick #22 or #25.
#4 Henry Ruggs Pick #20-32
With a 4.27 40 yard dash, Ruggs is obviously a burner. I don't think you can draft Ruggs with the intent to make him your bonafide #1 WR. At Alabama, Jerry Jeudy was essentially the #1 with Ruggs playing #2 and I think the team that drafts Ruggs should already have a #1 option on the team. With that said, I do think Ruggs is a substantially better overall WR than Will Fuller and fellow classmates Jalen Reagor and Brandon Aiyuk.
Ruggs can take the top off a defense and adds another element to an offense that's hard to find without being a one trick pony. If the defense is already worried about Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, Ruggs will get better match ups and more space to thrive in, making him a strong fit for our offense. Cousins has been able to hit speedster Aldrick Robinson well in the past and I think he'd love having Ruggs.
Due to the nature of this type of WR he's a little more boom or bust than the first 3 guys on this list but there's no denying the type of impact he can have which gets me interested a little over halfway through the first round and extremely interested in the second round.
#5 Denzel Mims Pick #20-32
Mims stood out to me watching the tape and then he confirmed what I was thinking with an extremely strong combine performance. I'm not one to put much stake in the combine but it is good for confirming or denying things you see on film.
Mims is 6'3 with length and ran a 4.39 40 so he's fast too. If you've ever watched Hopkins go at it with Jalen Ramsey when the Texans play the Jags, every route is like a moving boxing match down the field, Mims brings that same type of physicality to the table, he out right bully's DB's. That bullying transfers to the run game as well when he's blocking. Zimmer would like this guy a lot, it's cliche but "he's a football player".
Mims is a solid route runner and when you combine that with his size, length, and speed I just see it being really hard for defenders to be able to handle him one on one and if teams are forced to give him extra attention that will open things up for Thielen and our running game. I wouldn't mind taking Mims with either of our first rounders and I've given him the same pick range as Ruggs. They're very different receivers but I'd love either of them.
#6 Laviska Shenault Jr Pick #26-42
LSJ is a very intriguing prospect in my eyes. He's 6'0, 227 pounds and I think he has the potential to be what we had all hoped Cordarrelle Patterson would be. LSJ is not as physically gifted as Patterson but if you take some of the physical ability and shuffle it straight into actual WR skills you get LSJ and I think it's a pretty good trade off that could make for a very potent and productive WR.
I've seen flashes from LSJ with his open field running, his power, and ability to fight through contact that nearly rivals Patterson with the ball in his hands but again the difference is he can actually play a traditional WR role which means he'll be on the field as a normal part of the offense and not a guy who can only come on the field for scripted / gimmick plays.
In all honesty, the thing that keeps LSJ out of the top 5 for me is actually his injury history. He was an all purpose weapon at Colorado and he's got a thicker build so they also ran him between the tackles, in the red zone, in the wild cat, etc where he took more punishment than a WR is typically going to sustain. LSJ participated in the combine despite needing Abdominal surgery and his performance suffered for it some.
I'm taking a bit of a risk here with LSJ at #6 and with a pick range essentially late first and into the second round but if my team doctors say he's A-ok I'm happy to pull the trigger knowing we'll only play him at WR with the occasional jet sweep mixed in. If he slides into the 3rd round due to concerns around his injury's or skills I'd be even happier to get him there.
#7 Michael Pittman Jr Pick #33-64
I liked what I saw from Pittman while watching his film and he had a solid performance at the combine. I think his floor is reasonably safe as a big body'd possession receiver with enough athletic ability and upside to turn into something more at the next level.
Rudolph isn't getting any younger and Irv Smith Jr who will eventually replace Rudolph full time, isn't the biggest guy either so I think Pittman will have a lot of opportunity to carve out a nice role in our offense both as a bit of a deep threat and redzone guy.
#8 Bryan Edwards Pick #42-64
Edwards isn't quite as big as Pittman and unfortunately he broke his foot while training for the combine so we don't have his exact numbers but from what I've seen on film I think he would have improved his stock. Edwards' main problem is inconsistent hands / drops or he could have been higher on this list as I like his potential a lot, I just hate self inflicted wounds.
With that said, Edwards put together 4 solid years at SC, catching 71 balls in 2019, some of which were spectacular grabs so if he can improve on the mental lapses responsible for some of these drops he has a chance to right the ship so to speak.
#9 Devin Duvernay Pick #48-#96
Duvernay reminds me a bit of Debo Samuel from last year in that he's not really a super polished guy or a pristine route runner, he's just going to show up and take your lunch money. He's kind of like the WR version of the RB Doug Martin, who earned the nickname "Muscle Hamster", just freakishly strong for his size.
I could see Duvernay being used like a Danny Woodhead if WR doesn't work out for him but I'm betting it will.
#10 Jalen Reagor Pick #48-96
Reagor is the poor man's Henry Ruggs. They're both plenty fast and plenty dangerous but Ruggs is far more NFL ready and a more complete player at this point in their careers. With that said, I don't think Reagor is such a project that he's really far away from being good, there is a lot to like here, he just needs some coaching and time to polish his game. Same pick range as Duvernay who I like slightly more RIGHT NOW, but Reagor has a higher ceiling if he can get there.
#11 Chase Claypool Pick #72-100
I like Claypool in this range. He's a guy who isn't there yet but would be awesome when / if he does and who doesn't like a 6-4, 238 TE disguised as a WR? All in all I think the dude works hard and is the type to keep improving and honing his craft. A little more of a project than most seem to think, I'd be happy to pick him up in the 3rd and he'd be a steal in the 4th.
#12 Brandon Aiyuk Pick #72-100
Aiyuk played at JUCO to start his college career but transferred to Arizona state for his final two seasons. 2018 was a slow year for him with 33 receptions, 474 yards, and 3 TD's. Then N'keal Harry got drafted by the patriots and 2019 was all about Aiyuk. He finished the year with 65 receptions, 1,192 yards, and 8 TD's. Aiyuk is certainly on the rise, but I'm not willing to put him in my top 10 just yet as he has a lot to work on still. I didn't like how much he struggled with physical man coverage and had inconsistent hands due to poor technique just to name a couple issues.
All of these things can be worked on of course but with such a strong class I'm just finding guys I like more to put in front of him and I don't expect him to be available around when I'd want to pick him so I don't see Aiyuk becoming a Viking but you never know.
#13 Tee Higgins Pick #87-128
Between Higgins and Pittman, Pittman is the clear choice. Pittman's vertical jump of 36.5 smoked Higgins' 31.0 and Pittman's 4.14 20 yard shuttle bested Higgins' 4.53 and Pittman looks better / smoother on film to me even though these two are essentially the same size.
Higgins is more of a Hakeem Knicks. He might struggle to get separation like a treadwell but it probably won't matter when you can win contested balls routinely. Still, I worry about guys who struggle to get separation in college as it doesn't get any easier in the NFL and if he can't consistently win contested balls, he doesn't have much else to work with in his tool box. Asking him to come in and produce as a #1 WR would probably be a mistake. Lucky for us, we already have a #1 WR.
#14 Quintez Cephus Pick #97-128
I really want to put Cephus higher on this list but I tried that last year with Stanley Morgan JR and he never got a chance to show his stuff so I'm holding back from making too big of a splash here. This is our Diggs replacement.
#15 Van Jefferson Pick #97-128
Last year, I didn't give Terry Mcclaurin a whole lot of respect and that's who Van Jefferson reminds me of. Jefferson's not as fast, nor does he accelerate as well as Mcclaurin but he runs good routes and has awesome footwork off the line and in and out of his breaks.
Jefferson doesn't have the best hands, I noticed a number of drops where he tried to catch chest high level passes with an under hand technique where I'd much rather see him snatch those balls out of the air rather than let them come into his body. If we can coach some of these correctable negatives out of his game there's a shot he'd end up being a strong value here.
#16 K.J. Hamler #128-164
Who's got that Tyreek fever? Given this pick range, I guess not me! Look I like Hamler, but the dude is 5-8 and 178 pounds, that's 2 inches shorter than Tyreek and 7 pounds lighter! If you watch his highlight reel below I think the dude get's shaken up 4 times in 7 minutes worth of clips and that's his highlight tape! I'd be totally shocked if he makes it through a full NFL season in a major role.
There's only one Tyfreek but it seems like most are betting super small, fast guys are just going to be the norm now and I'm just not sure I believe in that trend just yet.
He'll be long gone before this pick range but I figured people might be wondering where he was at in my rankings so here you go. If he's taken in the first or second round as the next Tyreek Hill I'm calling BUST.
6th and 7th round flyers - guys I'd be itching to snatch up at the end of the draft if they slide.
Austin Mack - Dealt with injuries and wasn't able to pile up stats but the skills are there.
Antonio Gandly-Golden - Another guy I'd love to bring into training camp if the price is right.
Jauan Jennings - Tough, Physical, Blocker.
Tyler Johnson - local kid, lots of skills, athleticism likely holds him back, could have silenced critics with a good combine / pro day but chose not to run many of the drills, is he scared of the results?
Gabriel Davis
Lynn Bowden, Jr
Antonio Gibson
Aaron Parker
Hope you all enjoy! Let me know what you agree and disagree with! Time to start working on the RB's and QB's!
... and neither is this Chris guy.