OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills

Raptorman
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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 18, 2020 13:06:30 GMT -6

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Post by Raptorman on Apr 18, 2020 13:06:30 GMT -6

Apr 17, 2020 18:34:43 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Apr 17, 2020 17:09:27 GMT -6 Raptorman said:

Most QB's don't increase their completion percentage by much over the years. Allen may some day get up to 62%, but I would put that as his upper limit. I believe he will reside around 60% for his career.

I did some maths and this isn't true.

Since 1990, there have only been 18 QBs out of 57 with 20+ starts who have a higher than 60% completion percentage for their combined first 2 seasons.

Manning X 2, Ryan, Luck and Alex Smith all had worse than 60%.

The top 3 were surprising, anyone want to guess?

Guys with completion percentages over 60 with 60+ starts in years 3+

40 out of 75.

Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Alex Smith, Eli Manning all had completion percentages skyrocket up in their 3rd seasons and beyond.

2 of the top 3 were surprising with this one. Everyone can guess #1, but I wonder if anyone will get 2 and 3?

And how many QB's with a completion percentage lower than 60% actual play 20 games in their first 2 years? I'd like to see the complete list of names in your 57. Because fact is, most QB's who throw below 60% don't start 20 games in their career, much less their first 2. I have a list of 144 QB from 1995 to 2019 with completion percentage of 60% or less. And only 50 of them have 20 games in their career much less 20 in their first two. All these steller QB's like Bryon Leftwich, Sam Darnold, Shaun King, Colt McCoy, Vince Young. Bradon Weeden, Christian Ponder, with 20 starts their first two year.

You can't truly call yourself "peaceful" unless you are capable of great violence. If you are not capable of great violence, you are not peaceful, you are harmless.

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 18, 2020 16:45:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by whoskmoon on Apr 18, 2020 16:45:41 GMT -6

Apr 18, 2020 13:06:30 GMT -6 Raptorman said:

Apr 17, 2020 18:34:43 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

I did some maths and this isn't true.

Since 1990, there have only been 18 QBs out of 57 with 20+ starts who have a higher than 60% completion percentage for their combined first 2 seasons.

Manning X 2, Ryan, Luck and Alex Smith all had worse than 60%.

The top 3 were surprising, anyone want to guess?

Guys with completion percentages over 60 with 60+ starts in years 3+

40 out of 75.

Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Alex Smith, Eli Manning all had completion percentages skyrocket up in their 3rd seasons and beyond.

2 of the top 3 were surprising with this one. Everyone can guess #1, but I wonder if anyone will get 2 and 3?

And how many QB's with a completion percentage lower than 60% actual play 20 games in their first 2 years? I'd like to see the complete list of names in your 57. Because fact is, most QB's who throw below 60% don't start 20 games in their career, much less their first 2. I have a list of 144 QB from 1995 to 2019 with completion percentage of 60% or less. And only 50 of them have 20 games in their career much less 20 in their first two. All these steller QB's like Bryon Leftwich, Sam Darnold, Shaun King, Colt McCoy, Vince Young. Bradon Weeden, Christian Ponder, with 20 starts their first two year.

39 QBs started 20+ games in their first couple of seasons with completion percentages of 20+

In order of completion percentage:
Sam Darnold
Jared Goff
Matt Ryan
Jameis Winston
Derek Carr
Ryan Tannehill
Peyton Manning
Christian Ponder
Byron Leftwich
Cam Newton
Josh Freeman
Blake Bortles
Tim Couch
Colt McCoy
Jeff George
Jason Campbell
Sam Bradford
Geno Smith
Vince Young
Jake Plummer
Andrew Luck
Neil O'Donnell
Charlie Batch
Aaron Brooks
Josh Allen
Alex Smith
Shaun King
Brandon Weeden
Donovan McNabb
Drew Bledsoe
Mark Sanchez
Kyle Boller
David Carr
Rick Mirer
Blaine Gabbert
Joey Harrington
Kerry Collins
Tony Banks
Eli Manning

I bolded the ones that would be considered at least okay starters.

This is a list of the ones who had higher than that in their first two seasons, again in order:

Deshaun Watson

Dak Prescott

Teddy Bridgewater

Ben Roethlisberger

Carson Palmer

Lamar Jackson

Russell Wilson

Marc Bulger

Mitchell Trubisky

Robert Griffin

Jay Cutler

Jeff Garcia

Joe Flacco

Marcus Mariota

Trent Edwards

Carson Wentz

Baker Mayfield

Andy Dalton

Clearly being higher than 60 is a solid indicator of future success, Edwards is the only guy in that list who I would say was a complete bust not due to injury, with Trubisky probably ending up being the 2nd.

However, being under is more common and there are quite a few QBs who improved a lot in year 3 and beyond.

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 19, 2020 20:58:10 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Apr 19, 2020 20:58:10 GMT -6

What's this? People trying to play around with stats without my supervision? I don't think that's OSHA approved.

Let me just take this time to remind everyone how the passing game has evolved every year since the beginning of time, so we can't really compare a QB today with one from even 10 years ago. Well I can because I created a neat little tool that adjusts a QB's stats based on the era/QB you're trying to compare him too, but that's not the argument here, I just wanted to show off.

Let me throw up a quick little chart that explains what I'm talking about. These are the league averages since 1960.

YEAR   COMP%  AVG/A TD/INT RATING
1960   49.37   6.91   0.83   63.1
1961   49.97   7.17   0.83   64.7
1962   51.03   7.43   0.84   66.9
1963   50.40   7.35   0.96   69.1
1964   50.57   7.13   0.94   68.3
1965   48.87   7.02   0.98   67.3
1966   49.46   6.87   0.90   65.7
1967   49.74   6.85   0.87   64.8
1968   49.92   6.98   0.90   66.2
1969   51.52   6.97   0.95   68.8
1970   51.12   6.73   0.84   65.6
1971   50.87   6.72   0.72   62.2
1972   51.70   6.82   0.84   66.3
1973   52.04   6.56   0.80   64.9
1974   52.46   6.49   0.75   64.2
1975   52.45   6.68   0.81   65.8
1976   52.15   6.63   0.87   67.0
1977   51.32   6.50   0.69   61.2
1978   53.07   6.73   0.73   65.0
1979   54.10   6.87   0.90   70.4
1980   56.18   7.00   0.97   73.7
1981   54.62   7.03   0.97   72.9
1982   56.40   7.02   0.92   73.4
1983   56.90   7.18   1.01   75.9
1984   56.38   7.14   1.05   76.1
1985   54.85   7.04   0.99   73.5
1986   55.39   6.99   1.01   74.1
1987   54.82   6.96   1.13   75.2
1988   54.28   6.91   1.01   72.9
1989   55.80   7.15   1.04   75.6
1990   56.02   7.01   1.20   77.3
1991   57.37   6.89   1.05   76.2
1992   57.47   6.86   0.99   75.3
1993   57.94   6.69   1.10   76.7
1994   58.04   6.77   1.23   78.4
1995   58.19   6.77   1.29   79.2
1996   57.61   6.68   1.15   76.9
1997   56.23   6.69   1.29   77.2
1998   56.60   6.85   1.29   78.3
1999   57.08   6.76   1.18   77.1
2000   58.19   6.75   1.19   78.1
2001   58.97   6.78   1.17   78.5
2002   59.65   6.72   1.31   80.4
2003   58.78   6.64   1.22   78.3
2004   59.75   7.05   1.40   82.8
2005   59.46   6.79   1.27   80.1
2006   59.77   6.85   1.25   80.4
2007   61.16   6.86   1.35   82.6
2008   61.00   6.94   1.39   83.2
2009   60.89   6.98   1.35   83.0
2010   60.75   7.00   1.47   84.1
2011   60.10   7.20   1.47   84.3
2012   60.90   7.08   1.62   85.6
2013   61.22   7.12   1.60   86.0
2014   62.64   7.21   1.79   88.9
2015   63.00   7.25   1.93   90.2
2016   63.00   7.15   1.89   89.3
2017   62.08   7.02   1.72   86.9
2018   64.86   7.37   2.02   92.9
2019   63.47   7.22   1.94   90.4

Passing just keeps getting better and better, and I would attribute that to the league being more and more careful/conservative. The traditional QB rating gives way too much weight to completion percentage IMO. Which partially explains the dramatic rise in rating. The other main contributing factor is how INT % has dropped biggly since 1960, because the league has become ultra conservative haha.

Unfortunately the NFL never kept track of target distance prior to 2004, so we can't really see how much more careful the league has gotten since Al Gore invented the forward pass.

Or can we? The one category that has remained fairly consistent over the years is the average per attempt. B-b-but shouldn't that be getting lower if the league is throwing shorter passes? No! An incomplete pass counts as 0 yards per attempt, so if you're even completing 2 yard passes, that's going to help your average more than an incompletion. The league needs to complete a higher percentage of shorter passes to maintain an average average, which we see above.

We can see it even better if we look at average yards per completion though. So I've done that too.

YEAR  AVG/CMP
1960   14.00
1961   14.34
1962   14.56
1963   14.59
1964   14.10
1965   14.37
1966   13.90
1967   13.77
1968   13.98
1969   13.54
1970   13.16
1971   13.21
1972   13.18
1973   12.60
1974   12.38
1975   12.73
1976   12.71
1977   12.66
1978   12.67
1979   12.70
1980   12.46
1981   12.88
1982   12.44
1983   12.63
1984   12.66
1985   12.83
1986   12.62
1987   12.69
1988   12.73
1989   12.81
1990   12.51
1991   12.01
1992   11.94
1993   11.55
1994   11.66
1995   11.64
1996   11.60
1997   11.91
1998   12.10
1999   11.84
2000   11.60
2001   11.49
2002   11.27
2003   11.29
2004   11.80
2005   11.41
2006   11.46
2007   11.21
2008   11.38
2009   11.47
2010   11.53
2011   11.98
2012   11.63
2013   11.64
2014   11.51
2015   11.51
2016   11.35
2017   11.30
2018   11.37
2019   11.38

Boom! We call that evidence. Although the data suggests it has or is beginning to plateau. A flattening of the curve as they say in the biz.

And for the numerically challenged, the completion data would look like this if I got out my box of crayons.

What does it all mean? I realize this isn't useful for comparing an individual QB's comp % from year 1 to year 4, but it means you can't just draw a line in the sand (at 60%) and start picking QB's from different era's based on that line. You're going to find more 60% QB's nowadays than back then.

As far as a QB getting better completion wise as his career progresses, I think we can attribute most of that to experience and not really skill. For example, if you had rookie QB's throwing footballs at a tire in practice, would they be hitting the tire more often by year 4 or 8? Probably not.

I'll look at year by year career completion percentage increases in the next post. When does it plateau?

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 19, 2020 21:20:24 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Apr 19, 2020 21:20:24 GMT -6

So here are the average completion percentages of every QB, every year, broken down by era. There's definitely an increase those first few years before it slowly begins to flatten out.

            1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   9th  10th  11th  12th  13th  14th  15th
1970-1979  46.5  48.9  50.6  52.8  51.0  52.7  54.7  53.7  52.8  54.3  54.2  56.1  53.5  55.3  55.3
1980-1989  51.4  53.6  55.1  54.7  55.9  56.0  56.9  56.9  57.0  57.5  58.2  58.0  57.6  57.9  54.0
1990-1999  52.9  55.5  55.6  56.6  57.8  57.5  57.3  58.5  58.8  58.1  59.7  60.1  59.2  60.5  57.8
2000-2009  54.8  58.1  58.9  60.9  60.5  60.6  61.7  60.7  60.9  60.6  60.2  60.4  61.7  60.5  59.1
2010-2019  59.0  59.9  62.1  61.0  61.9  62.1  63.6  63.7  63.1  63.3  64.5  64.3  63.3  63.9  66.4

The year to year change of the above chart:

1970-1979         2.4   1.7   2.2  -1.9   1.7   2.0  -1.0  -0.9   1.5  -0.1   1.8  -2.5   1.7   0.0
1980-1989         2.3   1.5  -0.4   1.2   0.1   0.9   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.7  -0.2  -0.4   0.2  -3.8
1990-1999         2.6   0.2   1.0   1.2  -0.4  -0.2   1.2   0.3  -0.7   1.6   0.4  -0.9   1.3  -2.8
2000-2009         3.3   0.8   2.0  -0.4   0.2   1.1  -0.9   0.2  -0.3  -0.5   0.2   1.3  -1.2  -1.4
2010-2019         0.9   2.2  -1.1   0.8   0.3   1.5   0.1  -0.6   0.2   1.2  -0.2  -1.0   0.6   2.5

Year 4 QB's in this most recent era have declined significantly over their 3rd year. In fact their 5th and 6th years are lower than their 3rd too.

Last Edit: Apr 19, 2020 21:24:21 GMT -6 by Reignman

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 19, 2020 21:43:41 GMT -6 Reignman likes this

Quote

Post by Raptorman on Apr 19, 2020 21:43:41 GMT -6

Apr 19, 2020 21:20:24 GMT -6 Reignman said:

So here are the average completion percentages of every QB, every year, broken down by era. There's definitely an increase those first few years before it slowly begins to flatten out.

            1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   9th  10th  11th  12th  13th  14th  15th
1970-1979  46.5  48.9  50.6  52.8  51.0  52.7  54.7  53.7  52.8  54.3  54.2  56.1  53.5  55.3  55.3
1980-1989  51.4  53.6  55.1  54.7  55.9  56.0  56.9  56.9  57.0  57.5  58.2  58.0  57.6  57.9  54.0
1990-1999  52.9  55.5  55.6  56.6  57.8  57.5  57.3  58.5  58.8  58.1  59.7  60.1  59.2  60.5  57.8
2000-2009  54.8  58.1  58.9  60.9  60.5  60.6  61.7  60.7  60.9  60.6  60.2  60.4  61.7  60.5  59.1
2010-2019  59.0  59.9  62.1  61.0  61.9  62.1  63.6  63.7  63.1  63.3  64.5  64.3  63.3  63.9  66.4

The year to year change of the above chart:

1970-1979         2.4   1.7   2.2  -1.9   1.7   2.0  -1.0  -0.9   1.5  -0.1   1.8  -2.5   1.7   0.0
1980-1989         2.3   1.5  -0.4   1.2   0.1   0.9   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.7  -0.2  -0.4   0.2  -3.8
1990-1999         2.6   0.2   1.0   1.2  -0.4  -0.2   1.2   0.3  -0.7   1.6   0.4  -0.9   1.3  -2.8
2000-2009         3.3   0.8   2.0  -0.4   0.2   1.1  -0.9   0.2  -0.3  -0.5   0.2   1.3  -1.2  -1.4
2010-2019         0.9   2.2  -1.1   0.8   0.3   1.5   0.1  -0.6   0.2   1.2  -0.2  -1.0   0.6   2.5

Year 4 QB's in this most recent era have declined significantly over their 3rd year. In fact their 5th and 6th years are lower than their 3rd too.

The one thing people have to remember about this is the changes in the rules over the years that benefit the QB. Back in the 60's and 70's the DB's would literally be mugging he WR as they ran down the field.

And on the other stat. Yards per completion. Know how many of today's' QB crack the top 50 all time in that category? 0 as in zero

Last Edit: Apr 19, 2020 21:58:59 GMT -6 by Raptorman

You can't truly call yourself "peaceful" unless you are capable of great violence. If you are not capable of great violence, you are not peaceful, you are harmless.

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 19, 2020 22:22:51 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Reignman on Apr 19, 2020 22:22:51 GMT -6

Apr 19, 2020 21:43:41 GMT -6 Raptorman said:

The one thing people have to remember about this is the changes in the rules over the years that benefit the QB. Back in the 60's and 70's the DB's would literally be mugging he WR as they ran down the field.

Yep exactly. That's part of the equation. It's also clear by the average completion distances that QB's were throwing the ball further downfield back then too.

Gradually teams realized turnovers were costly, so they became more and more careful. Teams with just a +1 turnover advantage win 78% of the time. Which now only makes me wonder how that stat has evolved as turnover rate has declined. It would stand to reason that a team with a 5 to 4 turnover advantage would win less often than a team with a 1 to 0 advantage, so we'll see.

First we'll look at how the number of turnovers correlates to win percentage by era.

The WIN% is based on having a +1 or better turnover advantage.

   ERA     WIN%  TO/G
1960-1969  .767  5.46
1970-1979  .779  4.95
1980-1989  .773  4.40
1990-1999  .784  3.58
2000-2009  .795  3.30
2010-2019  .779  2.79

There goes that theory. I expected to see the WIN% increase as the TO/G decreased. Maybe it does if we look at exactly a +1 advantage?

1960-1969  .621  5.46
1970-1979  .666  4.95
1980-1989  .646  4.40
1990-1999  .670  3.58
2000-2009  .686  3.30
2010-2019  .661  2.79

Not really there either.

So lets ramp this up a notch and see if teams with a 5 to 4 win less often than teams with a 1 to 0.

1 to 0   .686
2 to 1   .663
3 to 2   .646
4 to 3   .628
5 to 4   .685
6 to 5   .568

The theory holds true until you get to that 5 to 4 category. There have only been 176 games since 1960 that have had exactly a 5 to 4 turnover ratio, so maybe the sample size is too small. 6 to 5 is even smaller at 44 games. The other 4 categories have a big enough sample so I'm going to conclude the theory is confirmed.

You hear that Zimmer? It's more important than ever to have that +1 turnover advantage, so turn your defense loose and let them go get the ball dummy.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 20, 2020 11:02:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by whoskmoon on Apr 20, 2020 11:02:23 GMT -6

Apr 19, 2020 21:20:24 GMT -6 Reignman said:

So here are the average completion percentages of every QB, every year, broken down by era. There's definitely an increase those first few years before it slowly begins to flatten out.

            1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   9th  10th  11th  12th  13th  14th  15th
1970-1979  46.5  48.9  50.6  52.8  51.0  52.7  54.7  53.7  52.8  54.3  54.2  56.1  53.5  55.3  55.3
1980-1989  51.4  53.6  55.1  54.7  55.9  56.0  56.9  56.9  57.0  57.5  58.2  58.0  57.6  57.9  54.0
1990-1999  52.9  55.5  55.6  56.6  57.8  57.5  57.3  58.5  58.8  58.1  59.7  60.1  59.2  60.5  57.8
2000-2009  54.8  58.1  58.9  60.9  60.5  60.6  61.7  60.7  60.9  60.6  60.2  60.4  61.7  60.5  59.1
2010-2019  59.0  59.9  62.1  61.0  61.9  62.1  63.6  63.7  63.1  63.3  64.5  64.3  63.3  63.9  66.4

The year to year change of the above chart:

1970-1979         2.4   1.7   2.2  -1.9   1.7   2.0  -1.0  -0.9   1.5  -0.1   1.8  -2.5   1.7   0.0
1980-1989         2.3   1.5  -0.4   1.2   0.1   0.9   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.7  -0.2  -0.4   0.2  -3.8
1990-1999         2.6   0.2   1.0   1.2  -0.4  -0.2   1.2   0.3  -0.7   1.6   0.4  -0.9   1.3  -2.8
2000-2009         3.3   0.8   2.0  -0.4   0.2   1.1  -0.9   0.2  -0.3  -0.5   0.2   1.3  -1.2  -1.4
2010-2019         0.9   2.2  -1.1   0.8   0.3   1.5   0.1  -0.6   0.2   1.2  -0.2  -1.0   0.6   2.5

Year 4 QB's in this most recent era have declined significantly over their 3rd year. In fact their 5th and 6th years are lower than their 3rd too.

That is a lot of work to say I am right about Allen having a decent chance to get significantly more accurate in his 3rd year, I appreciate it.

The differences in eras is why I only went back to 1990. That was probably too far back, but I wanted larger sample sizes.

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 20, 2020 19:35:49 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Raptorman on Apr 20, 2020 19:35:49 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2020 11:02:23 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Apr 19, 2020 21:20:24 GMT -6 Reignman said:

So here are the average completion percentages of every QB, every year, broken down by era. There's definitely an increase those first few years before it slowly begins to flatten out.

            1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   9th  10th  11th  12th  13th  14th  15th
1970-1979  46.5  48.9  50.6  52.8  51.0  52.7  54.7  53.7  52.8  54.3  54.2  56.1  53.5  55.3  55.3
1980-1989  51.4  53.6  55.1  54.7  55.9  56.0  56.9  56.9  57.0  57.5  58.2  58.0  57.6  57.9  54.0
1990-1999  52.9  55.5  55.6  56.6  57.8  57.5  57.3  58.5  58.8  58.1  59.7  60.1  59.2  60.5  57.8
2000-2009  54.8  58.1  58.9  60.9  60.5  60.6  61.7  60.7  60.9  60.6  60.2  60.4  61.7  60.5  59.1
2010-2019  59.0  59.9  62.1  61.0  61.9  62.1  63.6  63.7  63.1  63.3  64.5  64.3  63.3  63.9  66.4

The year to year change of the above chart:

1970-1979         2.4   1.7   2.2  -1.9   1.7   2.0  -1.0  -0.9   1.5  -0.1   1.8  -2.5   1.7   0.0
1980-1989         2.3   1.5  -0.4   1.2   0.1   0.9   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.7  -0.2  -0.4   0.2  -3.8
1990-1999         2.6   0.2   1.0   1.2  -0.4  -0.2   1.2   0.3  -0.7   1.6   0.4  -0.9   1.3  -2.8
2000-2009         3.3   0.8   2.0  -0.4   0.2   1.1  -0.9   0.2  -0.3  -0.5   0.2   1.3  -1.2  -1.4
2010-2019         0.9   2.2  -1.1   0.8   0.3   1.5   0.1  -0.6   0.2   1.2  -0.2  -1.0   0.6   2.5

Year 4 QB's in this most recent era have declined significantly over their 3rd year. In fact their 5th and 6th years are lower than their 3rd too.

That is a lot of work to say I am right about Allen having a decent chance to get significantly more accurate in his 3rd year, I appreciate it.

The differences in eras is why I only went back to 1990. That was probably too far back, but I wanted larger sample sizes.

But it's even changed since then. And does it prove he will get better? Not really. A chance, yes. Everyone has a chance. But my bet is still he will never be about 62%. And that might work for him and the Bills.

You can't truly call yourself "peaceful" unless you are capable of great violence. If you are not capable of great violence, you are not peaceful, you are harmless.

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 20, 2020 19:37:05 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Raptorman on Apr 20, 2020 19:37:05 GMT -6

Apr 19, 2020 21:20:24 GMT -6 Reignman said:

So here are the average completion percentages of every QB, every year, broken down by era. There's definitely an increase those first few years before it slowly begins to flatten out.

            1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   9th  10th  11th  12th  13th  14th  15th
1970-1979  46.5  48.9  50.6  52.8  51.0  52.7  54.7  53.7  52.8  54.3  54.2  56.1  53.5  55.3  55.3
1980-1989  51.4  53.6  55.1  54.7  55.9  56.0  56.9  56.9  57.0  57.5  58.2  58.0  57.6  57.9  54.0
1990-1999  52.9  55.5  55.6  56.6  57.8  57.5  57.3  58.5  58.8  58.1  59.7  60.1  59.2  60.5  57.8
2000-2009  54.8  58.1  58.9  60.9  60.5  60.6  61.7  60.7  60.9  60.6  60.2  60.4  61.7  60.5  59.1
2010-2019  59.0  59.9  62.1  61.0  61.9  62.1  63.6  63.7  63.1  63.3  64.5  64.3  63.3  63.9  66.4

The year to year change of the above chart:

1970-1979         2.4   1.7   2.2  -1.9   1.7   2.0  -1.0  -0.9   1.5  -0.1   1.8  -2.5   1.7   0.0
1980-1989         2.3   1.5  -0.4   1.2   0.1   0.9   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.7  -0.2  -0.4   0.2  -3.8
1990-1999         2.6   0.2   1.0   1.2  -0.4  -0.2   1.2   0.3  -0.7   1.6   0.4  -0.9   1.3  -2.8
2000-2009         3.3   0.8   2.0  -0.4   0.2   1.1  -0.9   0.2  -0.3  -0.5   0.2   1.3  -1.2  -1.4
2010-2019         0.9   2.2  -1.1   0.8   0.3   1.5   0.1  -0.6   0.2   1.2  -0.2  -1.0   0.6   2.5

Year 4 QB's in this most recent era have declined significantly over their 3rd year. In fact their 5th and 6th years are lower than their 3rd too.

I wonder, do you have the data on how many QB's start out under 60% and don't make it to the 4th year?

You can't truly call yourself "peaceful" unless you are capable of great violence. If you are not capable of great violence, you are not peaceful, you are harmless.

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 20, 2020 20:11:16 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Reignman on Apr 20, 2020 20:11:16 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2020 19:37:05 GMT -6 Raptorman said:

I wonder, do you have the data on how many QB's start out under 60% and don't make it to the 4th year?

I do, but what would be the criteria? Like how many starts or attempts do they have to make that 1st, 2nd, or 3rd year? And everything will also depend on the era. I'm sure guys who started out under 60% in the 70's or 80's lasted longer than guys who have done it recently.

Lamar Jackson went from 58.2 and not being able to hit water if he fell out of a boat, to 66.1 in his 2nd year, so anything is possible. I once thought a QB is who he is as far as accuracy goes, and that it would only improve with experience. Meaning he'd learn which passes he could get away with throwing and get fewer of them knocked down or intercepted by defenders, but Jackson's actual accuracy has in fact gotten remarkably better. Unless his 2nd year turns out to be a statistical anomaly. Josh Allen went from 52.8 to 58.8, which is still awful, so he's got a long ways to go.

         ATT  CMP%   KD   TA SPIKE DROP  BAD  GOOD
Brees    378  74.3  1.1  2.4  1.3  3.6  10.7  84.1
Cousins  444  69.1  2.0  5.4  0.0  4.0  15.5  79.0
Jackson  401  66.1  3.0  2.7  0.5  3.6  17.5  76.0
Allen    461  58.8  2.2  5.4  0.7  7.2  20.3  73.2

So 20.3% of Allen's passes were off target or bad this past year. He was at 25.7% in 2018. To put that into perspective, Jackson was at 20.7% in 2018 when I thought he was one of the worst passing QB's I had ever seen xD.

Last Edit: Apr 20, 2020 20:11:39 GMT -6 by Reignman

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,661 Likes: 31,587 Fan Since: 1998	OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 21, 2020 13:29:37 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Apr 21, 2020 13:29:37 GMT -6

Oracle Bone Diviner Moderator Posts: 14,706 Likes: 10,608 Fan Since: last century	OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills Apr 21, 2020 18:42:58 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Oracle Bone Diviner on Apr 21, 2020 18:42:58 GMT -6 Apr 21, 2020 13:29:37 GMT -6 Funkytown said: Pfffft....platitudes.
	There's a ringing in my ear and I think it's the Call of the Wild itinerant, noun; a person who works and wanders.

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills May 4, 2020 16:33:38 GMT -6

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Post by Funkytown on May 4, 2020 16:33:38 GMT -6

The Stefon Diggs trade as we know it by Mry64_

After completing multiple trades involving draft picks, this is how the Stefon Diggs trade looks for the Vikings.

Vikings traded:

Stefon Diggs

2020 7th to BUF (#239 Dane Jackson, CB, PITT)

2020 7th to BAL (#219 Geno Stone, S, IOWA)

Vikings received:

2020 1st (#22 Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU)

2020 7th (#225 Kenny Willekes, DE, MSU)

Bears 2021 4th

Bills 2021 4th

Ravens 2021 5th

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills May 28, 2020 10:40:23 GMT -6 vikingpwr likes this

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Post by Purple Pain on May 28, 2020 10:40:23 GMT -6

B/R: Every NFL Team's Smartest Move of the 2020 Offseason

Minnesota Vikings: Trading Stefon Diggs

While adding Stefon Diggs was a great move for the Bills, getting rid of him was a savvy one for the Vikings. While he is a fantastic receiver, he is also set to carry a cap hit of just under $11 million in 2020. That wouldn't be a big deal for most franchises, but it would have been tough to swallow for the Vikings.

Even after trading Diggs and releasing Pro Bowl corner Xavier Rhodes, Minnesota has only $12.3 million in cap space.

This was also a smart move because the Vikings knew they could add a new weapon from the promising collection of incoming rookie receivers—which they did by drafting Justin Jefferson. With wideout Adam Thielen and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in the fold, the Vikings can weather any early struggles from Jefferson.

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OFFICIAL: Diggs Traded to Bills May 28, 2020 11:07:05 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Danchat on May 28, 2020 11:07:05 GMT -6

May 28, 2020 10:40:23 GMT -6 Purple Pain said:

B/R: Every NFL Team's Smartest Move of the 2020 Offseason

Minnesota Vikings: Trading Stefon Diggs

While adding Stefon Diggs was a great move for the Bills, getting rid of him was a savvy one for the Vikings. While he is a fantastic receiver, he is also set to carry a cap hit of just under $11 million in 2020. That wouldn't be a big deal for most franchises, but it would have been tough to swallow for the Vikings.

Even after trading Diggs and releasing Pro Bowl corner Xavier Rhodes, Minnesota has only $12.3 million in cap space.

This was also a smart move because the Vikings knew they could add a new weapon from the promising collection of incoming rookie receivers—which they did by drafting Justin Jefferson. With wideout Adam Thielen and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in the fold, the Vikings can weather any early struggles from Jefferson.

That's the justification for being our "smartest move"? We only saved about $5M in cap room!

I think the smartest move was releasing Rhodes... or letting Waynes go and ensuring we get a 2021 3rd rounder for him.