Re-Loading vs. Re-Tooling vs. Rebuilding in 2020

Over the past five seasons, the Minnesota Vikings are tied with the Seattle Seahawks for the fifth most wins in the NFL, only trailing Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Kansas City and New England. But despite three shots in the playoffs in those five years, the Vikings have not been able to reach a Super Bowl. How can they build off last year’s 10-win season and Wild Card round victory and find themselves in The Big Game next year? Let’s have a look…

Improve pass protection

Jan 11, 2020; Santa Clara, California, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) throws the ball under pressure against the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter in a NFC Divisional Round playoff football game at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
It may have felt like we were seeing Kirk Cousins get pressured and sacked fewer times in 2019 than the previous season but that wasn’t really the case — the Vikings simply passed the ball less. But on a per-play basis, Cousins was sacked on 6.2% of dropbacks in ’18 and 5.9% in ’19 and pressured 38.9% in ’18 and 36.4% in ’19.

And by PFF’s standards, there was no difference at all. In ’18 the team’s pass blocking graded 28th and only improved by one spot to 27th in ’19. So overall it was only the slightest of improvements in results despite the scheme change designed to give Cousins more time to throw.

The Vikings received decent performances from their tackles as Riley Reiff ranked 26th by PFF standards and Brian O’Neill was 30th of 60 tackles who played regularly but that might not be good enough to protect an immobile quarterback. Whether that means spending a first-round pick at tackle or chasing improvement in free agency, Cousins needs all the help he can get on the edges.

But if the Vikings receive similar play from the tackles next season they can still give Cousins more time to throw by getting a far better performance in the middle. Rookie Garrett Bradbury will need to take a huge leap forward in pass protection, where he ranked as the NFL’s worst center. In the NFC North, players like Kenny Clark and Eddie Goldman will continue to give him trouble if there isn’t a jump in play. The Vikings received poor pass pro at the left guard position, where Pat Elflein the ninth most pressures of any guard in the NFL.

A more dynamic quarterback might be able to scramble his way out of trouble when pressure comes up the middle but with Cousins the Vikings will only have a shot at reaching the Super Bowl with solid-to-great pass blocking from every position on the O-line. That will require change.

Throwing to Diggs has been one of the best thing any Vikings QB can do over the past five years. Various quarterbacks have combined to register a 108.9 quarterback rating when targeting him, completing 71.3% of passes his way for 12.3 yards per completion, 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Put another way: Diggs has about a full NFL season’s worth of targets in his career which combine for MVP-caliber quarterback numbers yet he was only targeted 96 times this season, tied for 34th.

As a team the Vikings have the sixth highest QB rating in the NFL since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach. That can largely be attributed to Diggs, Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Breaking up these king-making weapons would not get the Vikings closer to winning the Super Bowl, especially when you consider the are where recent Super Bowl teams were strongest is pass efficiency.

The last three Super Bowls have been made up of teams that ranked first, fifth, third, fifth, first and second in passing Expected Points Added. While there has been much talk of the 49ers’ ability to run the ball, they were the second best team in yards per pass attempt.

The Vikings were strong in both categories, finishing ninth in EPA and sixth in yards per attempt. With Gary Kubiak returning, it’s plausible that they could continue to work to Cousins’s strengths and build on what they stared by adding another weapon to the mix.

Overall the Vikings were solid against the pass in 2019. They ranked seventh in EPA against the pass and allowed the 10th lowest quarterback rating in the league. But their Achilles heel was that opponents could succeed throwing toward their outside corners. Combined between Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes, QBs completed 110 of 154 passes for 1,460 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception, good for a quarterback rating of 117.9, per PFF data.